Week Six NFL Picks: 100% Better Than Being Trapped In A Mine

The less said about last week's picks, the better -- but if you can avoid picking at scabs, you've got more discipline than me. So we'll start with a Panther offense that, at home, squandered 45 minutes of utterly dominant defense to never even threaten to get back into the game. Then we'll go to a Chiefs team that stays with the Colts all day, but can't catch simple, wide-open passes to keep the road cover. The Packers smack field goals off uprights. The Saints lose to Max Freaking Hall and the worst division leading team in NFL history. The Chargers can't punt without getting it blocked for scores, and the Niners can't figure out that maybe you should throw to the TE against a team that can't defend them for, oh, 45 minutes.

Well, that's why they call it gambling. And losing. And hating, and trying to distract yourself from your own private misery by noting that my day job does not involve going into the bowels of the earth to smash rocks, then getting trapped down there for half a year. So there's that.

And with that... on to the picks!

Seattle at CHICAGO (-7)

Who do you like better - the terrible road team that's coming off a bye and just traded a spare parts WR (Deion Branch) while bringing in a retread problem child RB (Marshawn Lynch), or the home team with a concussed QB who can't keep a clean pocket or call running plays?

Well, give me Da Bears, under the theory that their defense is pretty solid this year, and knows what to do against a QB that holds the ball too long, since they get to practice against that every day of the week. Besides, the next road game that the Seabags show up for in this decade will be the first.

Bears 27, Seahawks 17

MIAMI at Green Bay (NL)

Even before QB Aaron Rodgers got concussed at the end of last week's loss to the Redskins, I wasn't loving this game for the Pack. They can't really run the ball, TE Jermichael Finley is out, multiple defenders are down, and they get a Dolphins team that's pretty road-worthy, seeing how they run the ball well and have a reasonably frisky defense. Assuming Miami fixed the shocking special teams blunders that doomed them before the bye against the Patriots, this one's going to be close. And if QB Matt Flynn is handing off to RB Brandon Jackson, aka the disaster scenario for Pack Fan in preseason? A loss.

Dolphins 22, Packers 16

San Diego at ST. LOUIS (+8.5)

How can you possibly take a team that just got annihilated by Detroit, of all teams, and lost their #1 WR in the bargain? Because I can't lose another road game with Norv Turner. If there was a way to not pick this game, I would. If there was a way to lock down the 8.5 point cover as a push, despite the fact that this is statistically impossible, I'd be tempted. That's how much Norv and his sucktastic special teams play, his overrated and turnover-prone offense (oh, Charger Fan, you're starting to understand just how much damage has been done to the talent level by now, aren't you?), his pressure-free defense and the pigheaded decision to let WR Vincent Jackson take the year down rather than get moved. Of course they will win this game; of course they will recover to come back and win their trash heap division, and of course the Rams aren't going to be able to score enough or stop TE Antonio Gates from his continuing reign of terror. But I'd rather lose picking against Norv right now than win picking with him. That's the level of my hate. (Oh, and Sam Bradford's good at home, the Rams aren't really as bad as they looked last week, and when that #1 WR is Mark Clayton, you really haven't lost a #1.)

Chargers 31, Rams 24

BALTIMORE at New England (-3)

Real tough game to pick here, since the Patriots are coming off the bye and the Ravens are susceptible to the air assault... but I'm betting that the Pats are going to be a lot less terrifying to cover without the Randy Moss deep threat. Besides, the last time these two teams met, in the same stadium, the Ravens stomped a mudhole through the Patriot playoff dreams, and that Ravens' team didn't have WR Anquan Boldin, or an older and safer QB Joe Flacco. There's a reason why the Ravens are one of my AFC Championship teams, and the Pats aren't. Especially post-Moss.

Ravens 27, Patriots 20

Detroit at NY GIANTS (-8)

I'm never on the same page with the Giants, who went into Houston last week and were never threatened by what is supposed to be a decent Texans team... so why not just lay the points and count on them to take care of business here? Especially if WR Calvin Johnson is going to miss the game as expected, and the Lions are coming in fat and happy off their first blowout win in forever. The points are a bit much, but the Lions have no one that can stay with WR Hakeem Nicks, who is starting to look like one of the best ten wideouts in the league. Besides, Detroit QB Shaun Hill will not be able to avoid turnovers on the road.

Giants 31, Lions 17

ATLANTA at Philadelphia (-3)

Atlanta is basically the better version of the Niners. Quality power RB, outstanding pass-catching TE, reasonably athletic defense... but unlike the Niners, there's a quality coaching staff here that doesn't lose patience with the running game, a QB that wins games and avoid jaw-dropping mistakes in Matt Ryan, and a true stud WR in Roddy White that's a nightmare matchup, especially if QB Asante Samuel misses another game with post-concussion syndrome.

If Michael Vick starts this game and brings his "A" game, that would help loads, if only because it means that WR DeSean Jackson becomes a factor again. I'd also love to see RB LeSean McCoy get 15 to 20 carries as part of a ball control offense, because I trust this defense against the Falcon ground game... not at all, really. Especially now that DT Broderick Bunkley is out for the year. What's more likely to happen is another game of Kevin Kolb, another You Crap The Bed moment from Andy Reid, and the Falcons continuning the Eagles' winless year at home. It's a rebuilding year for a reason, folks.

Falcons 24, Eagles 20

Cleveland at PITTSBURGH (-14)

Let's see, the Steelers are coming off a bye, getting their starting QB back, face a team with no good options at QB, a banged-up #1 RB, and no WRs to speak of. Which means that to cover this spread, the offense is going to have to score... six points. I'd take the Steelers to cover at 20; this has the feel of a homecoming game against a Division I-AA school.

Steelers 31, Browns 6

New Orleans at TAMPA BAY (+5)

How many weeks until the world realizes that this Saints team isn't, well, the team that won it all last year? This is the week, when a frisky and defensively rising Bucs team makes the road team struggle to move the sticks, yet again, and makes just enough plays on offense to pull out the win. WR Mike Williams is a beast, and even when the Saints were a dynamo, they didn't like this road trip and this grass field. There's a real turnaround happening in Tampa.

Bucs 28, Saints 20

Kansas City at HOUSTON (-4.5)

What to make of this Houston team? They look like they are finally ready to get over the hump in the AFC South... then they come home and just look terrible against the Giants. Now they've got the mighty mite Chiefs, who will sorely test the idea that anyone can throw for 300 yards agains this secondary, because QB Matt Cassel looked for all the world like the first undefeated QB to lose his job on performance, and they might just up and cut WR Dwayne Bowe for rampant droppery. Just a mess to pick here.

I'm going with the home team, because if they come in and throw it, Cassel will eventually blow it... and getting away from the two-headed running game is just a bad idea when it's your identity. Besides, TE Owen Daniels started to look tolerable again last week, and WR Andre Johnson is due for a huge game.

Texans 31, Chiefs 17

NY JETS at Denver (+3)

Is it time to trust the Jets? Maybe, even if the suddenly stat-happy Broncos will be able to throw for over 300 yards again, primarily by targeting hamstring-hindered CB Darelle Revis. I shudder to think what this team would look like if they had simply signed the guy in the off-season; maybe as good as they think they are, even. Expect the Jets to hand it off 40 times and get TE Dustin Keller involved, because the only way the Broncos win this game on defense is from multiple INTs.

Jets 27, Broncos 21

OAKLAND at San Francisco (-7)

The first 0-5 team to be a 7-point favorite? Perhaps. The Raiders come in with some banged up skill position situations, the knowledge that despite the game being in their own back yard, they will have no real road fan presence, and the chance to own the year against what might be the most disappointing team in football. The Niners have shown they can lose against anyone at any time, and this isn't an ideal matchup for them, as the Raiders have some reasonable talent and much more heart than in the past... and seven points is just too many. The Niners will win, but not cover.

Niners 24, Raiders 20

DALLAS at Minnesota (-1.5)

The sad thing about this game is that one of these teams pretty much has to win, and save their season, though perhaps that's overstating the case, seeing how the NFC is just one big ball of meh so far this year. Dallas is the better club by the numbers, and would come in with a righted ship if they only could (a) have the right guy spike the ball after scoring, (b) cover the subsequent short kickoff, and (c) not get roasted by the best RB in the game. Seriously, of all the ways to lose a football game, Wrong Guy Spiking is just plain special.

Minnesota had to be somewhat encouraged that they nearly won in New York on MNF despite the L'il Brett Scandal, not that it's completely in the rear-view mirror. The bigger problem for the Vikings is that they just aren't a special defensive team any more. That's much more noticeable when the offense is turning it over, regardless of whether or not they complete a few more deep balls.

Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

INDIANAPOLIS at Washington (-3)

Another week, another superior offensive team coming into DC to deal with a Skins team that's just winning. Perhaps there's something to the idea that QB Donovan McNabb wins 3 out of every 5 starts he makes, and there's real fantasy goodness to be had from RB Ryan Torain against the less than stout Colts on his home turf... but the visitors are starting to get healthy again at the WR positions, and I can't see QB Peyton Manning turning in two stink jobs in a row. It's time for Indy to assert itself.

Colts 30, Redskins 23

TENNESSEE at Jacksonville (+3)

This is a prime time game? I gues there's something to be said for giving RB Chris Johnson some run, but the other 43 starters on the field don't really merit the exposure. The Jags are usually tough at home under the lights, but it's very tough to take this kind of shaky coaching situation seriously, especially against an old hand like Jeff Fisher. If you can stay awake for this one, and endure the relentless hyping of a contest that defines ordinary... well, you just like football more than me. Boring, badly played football...

Last week: 4-11

2010: 31-41-5

Lifetime: 314-318-16