NFL Week 7 Picks: The Spread Is Too Damn High

Ladies and gentlemen, I come to you today a changed man. It's all thanks to Jimmy McMillan, our next governor for the great state of New York, and a man who speaks (and raps, kind of) truth to power. He's inspired me to change my ways, and I can tell you now, after six weeks of doing the work of picking NFL games in a way that would fail a properly weighted coin, one plain and simple truth.

The Spread Is Too Damn High.

For Crying Out Loud.

(puts on leather gloves, finds that it's impossible to type while wearing them, takes them off)

How are you supposed to pick games in this current climate and provide for your children, when the spread is too damn high? Last week, we had three outright pushes and two losses by a half point. And yes, the pushes hurt. If the Twitter feeds that I monitor are to be trusted (hah!), some poor schmuck went 15-0-1 in his ultimate sucker bet of picking every game in a casino, and got stoned. Further proof, not that you needed it, that God has a sense of humor, but that He isn't laughing with you. Also, that gambling is going to get you killed. For Crying Out Loud.

(spends 30 minutes cultivating elaborate facial hair)

As someone who also knows karate, I will not speak ill of any other source for picking games. So let's just get funky, forget our troubles, and Do It, Do It. We embrace the push. At least when it's fun-kee.



And with that... on to the picks!

* * * * *

Cincinnati at ATLANTA (-5.5)

A dicey little game for the suddenly reeling Falcons, who were never in the road game last week in Philly, and now have the bye rested Bengals coming to town. I like the home team to recover, mostly because I think QB Carson Palmer will ensure that the Falcons win the turnover battle, and I don't particularly trust Marvin Lewis and his coterie of VH-1 divas to do much good with extra time to prepare. I also have too much faith in QB Matt Ryan's abilities, but at home, it's not that critical a failing.

Falcons 27, Bengals 20

WASHINGTON at Chicago (-3)

The Skins get after the QB, and the Bears are just reeling when it comes to protection schemes; that undefeated start to the season seems like a long time ago, especially after you blow a home game to the immortal Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle Seabags. (Hey, here's a hint: when you can't protect the QB, maybe you should run the ball? Nah, perish the thought, since Mike Martz is still here.)

Besides, there is a reason why QB Donovan McNabb wins so many of his lifetime starts, and QB Jay Cutler, well, doesn't. RB Ryan Torain has about 2-3 more quality games before he gets hurt, and HC Mike Shanahan throws some other no-name into Brief Fantasy Football Relevance, but for now, the Skins roll.

Redskins 24, Bears 20

PHILADELPHIA at Tennessee (NL)

There was no line on this one due to the question of whether it will be QB Vince Young or QB Kerry Collins behind center for the Titans. I suspect that it's going to be Young, which might actually work out to the Eagles' benefit, given how they've generally fared better against younger and more mobile QBs, at least in comparison to people who've seen a few blitzes in their life. Take a good look at Collins now, with his Very Old Man Hair, and it's not as if you are going to frighten him with a free rusher, or that he doesn't know how to get it to the hot read.

So I'm going with the road laundry, and will probably regret this, in that there is no good reason to think that an NFC team can go on the road against the AFC and win, let alone against a quality RB... but there's something not quite electrifying about Chris Johnson this year, and the Titans do have a short week. I also have to think that the run defense stoning Michael Turner last week mattered, and even the Jags kept Johnson under wraps on MNF until the Titans force-fed their stud to the delight of CJ's fantasy owners. So long as QB Kevin Kolb doesn't get another WR killed this week, I think the Eagles win this one and go into the bye week with as much claim as anyone to being the best team in the NFC. Oh, and I apologize in advance for the jinx.

Eagles 27, Titans 20

Jacksonville at KANSAS CITY (NL)

For Crying Out Loud... when the Jags lose, they lose with complete and utter abandon. This week, they look like they might be going with QB Trent Edwards, who actually looked better than QB David Garrard in that wipeout of a MNF game, in that a solid turd looks better than a hot mess. On the road in KC, they'll have no aerial game -- the Chiefs are actually sneaky good on defense, as per witness in their almost-cover loss to the Colts in Indy -- and won't be able to hold up in the long run against a patient and potent run attack. This is also another game in which the Chiefs' up and coming special teams should make a difference, and Arrowhead is alive again as a home field. (And if you are hurting for a defense this week, use KC with abandon. The Jags don't travel well, RB Maurice Jones-Drew is looking suddenly long in the tooth, and they don't have a QB on the roster that scares anyone but their fans.)

Chiefs 24, Jags 13

PITTSBURGH at Miami (+2.5)

Heat check time for the Steelers, who welcomed back QB Ben Roethlisberger last week and nearly failed to cover against the Browns, with a rookie QB, at home. Mostly because they didn't clamp down on the check down options, which is kind of indefensible, seeing how the Browns have no one capable of beating a quality CB deep. Yes, I'm actually a little concerned about my AFC Juggernaut, but they've earned enough trust in the first six weeks to pick them here regardless.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins won in overtime in Green Bay, which would be more impressive if the Pack weren't walking wounded, or if the Fish didn't need long figgies, didn't get roasted by WR Greg Jennings, and didn't make meh RB Brandon Jackson look competent. So it's not as if they come into this one firing on all cylinders, either.

Look for the Fish to move the ball in this one, but fail in the red zone and lose the turnover battle. And for the Steelers to actually get a big play or two in special teams against the suspect Dolphin units.

Steelers 27, Dolphins 19

CLEVELAND at New Orleans (-14)

You knew this was coming, right? Right.

(clears throat, puts on gloves)

THE SPREAD IS TOO *DAMN* HIGH.

The Saints finally showed up in 2010 as a relatively close approximation to last year's pinball machine against the Bucs last week, with rookie RB Chris Ivory breaking the 150 yard mark. But I don't think they do it again. The Browns have too good of an offensive line to get the speedy possession changes that lead to an exhausted defense, and RB Peyton Hillis somehow went for 90 total yards in Pittsburgh last week at less than full power. The Saints are not the Steelers, particularly in the defensive front seven, and if rookie QB Colt McCoy could move the sticks in Heinz Field in his first step, a road game in the Superdome isn't that terrifying, either. The home team will win the game, but they won't cover this big of a number, simply because they won't get enough possessions. Also, the crowd just won't care enough to really go for blood, since they'll be up and relatively comfortable all day.

Saints 27, Browns 17

St. Louis at TAMPA BAY (-3)

At the start of the year, this one looked like the kind of game you'd show to prisoners, but now it's surprisingly frisky game, due to the power of two intriguing young QBs. The Rams are the last (only?) hope for a fun NFC West division winner, as rookie QB Sam Bradford appears to be well on his way to winning Rookie of the Year. But they are also the same club that got hammered in Detroit. Tampa has shown that when sparky young QB Josh Freeman turns it over (Pittsburgh, New Orleans), they are roadkill, but otherwise they are plenty tough. Coming off the spanking, I think they show too much pride to roll over in successive weeks. And assuming the young guns stay healthy, this will be a playoff game in a year or two.

Bucs 23, Rams 17

San Francisco at CAROLINA (+3)

The Niners finally got a win last week against Oakland, and they face a team with nearly as bad a QB situation here. The Panthers are going back to the past with opening week starting QB Matt Moore taking the job back from Jimmy Claussen, who made Panther Fan remember Chris Weinke in his time on the job. The Panthers certainly aren't good, but with two weeks to prepare for a team that doesn't travel well and struggles with a coach that seems more interested in motivational ploys than making his team better... well, I've got just the slightest inkling of faith in head coach Jon Fox, and none in the Niners.

So let's take the home team with the surprisingly frisky defense, and put to rest any delusional notion that the Niners are going to make a year of this. Besides, Moore is at his best when there are absolutely no expectations, and it's not going to take a ton of points to win this one. (Admittedly, "best" is stretching it.)

Panthers 17, Niners 13

Buffalo at BALTIMORE (-14)

Charm City will break out the Angry Whipping Stick for this week's game against the hapless Bills, who really should start getting consideration for a winless year right about now. It will be a good week to own the Ravens' defense in your roto league, and while Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has the potential for sneaky fantasy goodness, that assumes he stays conscious for the whole thing. After last week's tight and no fight loss in New England, look for the Ravens to prove a big nasty point in this one.

As for Buffalo, countdown to winless starts in earnest this week, despite Fitzpatrick's Mario-esque scamper powers. I keep waiting for them to give the ball to CJ Spiller 15 to 20 times, just so that he'll get hurt and finish off that small moment of Bills Fan Hope. This franchise just needs to move already, so that the fan misery changes.

Ravens 31, Bills 13

Arizona at SEATTLE (-6)

How can you pick against the Seabags after a big win in Chicago? You can't, of course, especially against another one of their weak division sisters. Arizona does get back some weapons in WR Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, which will help rookie QB Max Hall look like he's got a little bounce in his step... but the real home field advantage will come into play here, and the Arizona defense has just been awful for much of the year. The really scary thing about this game is that the winner is going to have serious playoff hopes. (Mind you, it will be a home game in which they get beaten by double digits. But still serious.)

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17

Oakland at DENVER (NL)

At what point do we stick a fork in the idea of the Asomugha Effect? The Chargers' Malcolm Floyd went for over 200 yards against them. Niner QB Alex Smith didn't lose his game. The few big plays that the defense has made this year have mostly been off pressure from the front seven. And the man got paid big a few years ago, and has to watch QB monstrosities like Jason Campbell and Kyle Boller (this week's likely starter / stooge) on a routine basis. You'd stop trying, too.

As for this game, look for Denver QB Kyle Orton to throw for big numbers from getting the ball back with alacrity, seeing how the Raiders will be playing a QB (Boller) that's more notable for what he's banging (Carrie Prejean, that clueless gay-bashing Republican fundie Miss America) than anything else in his professional life. Someone needs to tell the world why fourth-rate NFLers like Boller and Hank Baskett land this level of tail. (Oh, because the tail has nothing between the ears? Thanks, that explains things.) Raider Fan will find the inevitable Jesus Teblow touchdown disagreeable.

Denver 31, Oakland 16

NEW ENGLAND at San Diego (-3)

The classic trap game for the team with the long flight, and the Chargers are a different team at home... but with hobbled receivers Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd, the Chargers just don't have enough (Patrick Crayton and Butch Davis, really?) to sustain drives. That's deadly against the Patriots, who also have the encouraging sight of their defense coming up big to help last week's wins. And if the Rams -- the Rams! -- can put QB Philip Rivers on the ground repeatedly, in a game where he had the use of Gates and Floyd for at least part of the game... yikes.

But look on the bright side, Charger Fan. Norv's sure to get tossed for this year, right? And maybe AJ "Lord Of No Rings" Smith as well, for the whole Vincent Jackson fiasco. Maybe you can get Marty Schottenheimer back. (Er, no.)

Patriots 34, Chargers 17

Minnesota at GREEN BAY (-3)

The cringe-inducing SNF Hype Game this week sees Brett Favre (with, one presumes, L'il Brett in tow) coming back to town for the second time to face what one has to think will be a united wall of hatred and disdain from Packer Fans. And Packer Fan, BTW... if you don't give this man your united disdain, you are soft in the head. It's been a decade since the Super Bowl that Reggie White won. He quit on your franchise. He plays for your biggest rival. He's an unmitigated attention whore and commercial sellout, a clumsy sack of harassment, and a turnover machine. Boo him with your whole heart, and be free.

As for the game itself, the secret shame of the Vikings this year is that they do not get to the QB nearly as well as last year's club, and while it's still tough to run on them, it's no longer impossible. Look for QB Aaron Rodgers, a week away from his concussion and motivated to end any and all whispers about being a liability in close games, to make this one... not close.

Packers 31, Vikings 20

NEW YORK at Dallas (-3.5)

Dallas needs the game; New York doesn't. But New York is actually a decent road team, with the ability to run the ball and rush the passer, with the best weapons at wideout in Eli Manning's career. Speaking of Manning The Lesser, he's an October menace, with a career 19-4 mark as a starter. That's the best record among modern (post Super Bowl) starting QBs with 20 trips to the post. And well, the Cowboys just seem snakebit to me, and would have made a coaching change if they still felt this year was salvageable. When you start force-feeding your limited and overweight speed back (Felix Jones), rather than seeing what you have with Tashard Choice... well, here's the only thing that you need to know about the Cowboys.

Number of wins: 1

Number of excessive celebration penalties following touchdowns that have directly led to losses: 2

So much for home field in the Super Bowl, Jerruh. And that's too *damn* bad.

Giants 24, Cowboys 20

Last week: 4-7-3

Year to date: 35-48-8

Lifetime: 315-325-19