Week 5 NFL Picks: The Knowledge, They Do Nothing

As we move more into the guts of the NFL grind, it becomes harder and harder to keep focus on what's important, meaningful, and of lasting importance. Desperate fantasy owners are shedding guys they said they'd be patient with. Desperate teams are shedding coordinators -- San Fran's offensive guy last week, Miami's special teams guy last night -- because they have no other options. There's even the occasional trade. And most of it, is just smoke and mirrors, because here's the single inescapable truth about the NFL this year:

There are no really good teams. At least, not yet. So every year, around this time. I feel like this. Complete with the resolution.



Sure, there are teams that are better than others, and teams with the potential to round into shape by December and stomp the earth. But in the first four weeks of the season in the free agent era, especially with practice hitting limited due to concussion and injury concerns and preseason games having even less importance than before due to the all-year workout schedule, the first month is more of an exercise in avoiding injury and spotting who is able to coach their clubs.

Take my Eagles, for instance. For three games, Eagles Fan was excited and dreaming the big dreams, due to the weakness of the division and the seductive magic / art that is a fully powered Michael Vick. Now? They are more or less convinced that Kevin Kolb is some bastard son of Bobby Hoying and Trent Edwards, only not as mobile, and that the team is destined to lose to the winless Niners on Sunday night. When the bigger reality is that when a team can't protect the QB and throws it 60 to 65% of the time, the QB is going to get hurt... and when that same team can't stop the run, especially when behind, they are nothing more than an entertaining and/or rebuilding fraud. We won't even get into the somehow gets worse every year clock management mess.

Behind the sideshow, there are undervalued teams. Pittsburgh could be a juggernaut if Ben Roethlisberger makes the offense effective again, and the defense stays healthy. The Jets have done everything that anyone could ask of them in the last three weeks, and could be shedding their erratic nature. Baltimore has played a tough schedule well, the secondary hasn't doomed them, and RB Ray Rice hasn't even gotten going yet. In the NFC, I've got positive things to think about the Packers and Falcons. But as to whether any of that stays in place, since the teams are so thin and so close? Well, that's for November. For now, we just need to get through October. And keep looking for signs.

Jacksonville at BUFFALO (+1)

This might be the only game of the year that the Bills win. No, I'm serious. As the calendar moves forward, more home games will be in Toronto, where the home field advantage goes into the crapper. They are coming off a bye, and just shed malcontent RB Marshawn Lynch, which means they might finally have a clue as to who to give the ball to. (Hint: it wasn't Lynch.) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has scamper powers that will go away via concussion in a matter of weeks; after he's done, it'll be done to surviving statue Brian Brohm, who you will want, very much, to pick up fantasy defenses against. And they've got a Jags team that's maddeningly erratic, coming off a miraculous home win against the shaky Colts, and have never traveled well. Take the team with the better special teams, I guess.

Bills 24, Jaguars 20

TAMPA BAY at Cincinnati (-5.5)

Underdogs have won a ridiculous number of games this year, causing the sub .500 nature of many touts. (Note: I'm under .500 because, well, I'm just not that good at this. But hopefully, you're entertained.) And this is a game that's just screaming out for the visitors to win. Tampa's frisky on offense, was 3-0 before getting spanked by the Steelers at home in the week before the bye, and get to visit Ohio before it gets all that cold. Besides, the Bengals are having real issues running the ball, and if WR Terrell Owens keeps having all of the big games instead of WR Chad Ochocinco, you have to expect a particularly nasty bout of hair pulling. A cover, if not an outright win, is coming.

Bucs 24, Bengals 20

ATLANTA at Cleveland (+3)

Am I overrating this Falcons team? Probably; if not for the heroic hustle of WR Roddy White, they lose at home last week to the Niners in a week where QB Matt Ryan and the special teams cost them big. But the talent's there, and at some point, you have to think that multiple suckout wins start to make their own momentum. Either that, or speak to a nice story about coaching. And, well, nice stories about coaching just don't go into the same sentence with Eric Mangini. The Browns are tougher than anyone expected, but they still have regrettable QB play, poor WRs, and an overwhelming sense of meh. They could be the best team in the state, but this Sunday, they won't be the best team on the field.

Falcons 23, Browns 17

St. Louis at DETROIT (-3)

Two terrible franchises that are both enjoying small green shoots of hope. For the Rams, it's the fact that rookie QB Sam Bradford looks fully formed and ready to win, at least when he's facing terrible teams. He might already be the best QB in his division, which is kind of like being the smartest kid on the short bus, but for a rookie in his first month, you'll take it.

Detroit has played nearly everyone tough despie injuries and bad breaks, and actual fantasy goodness has been all over the place. This week, in a dome that might even get a little loud, Bradford suffers a few growing pains, and Rams Fan remembers why they've lost so many games in the last few years. It mostly has to do with a defense that won't get off the field, and an offensive line that creates many, many long down-and-distance situations that lead to turnovers. Expect fireworks.

Lions 31, Rams 23

KANSAS CITY at Indianapolis (-7.5)

What's this? Well, it's basically the same story as the Bucs pick -- a big road dog that's coming off a bye, frisky and young, against a team that isn't as good as its press clippings. The Colts don't stop the run well enough, especially now that they are on their third safety, to run away and hide in this game. And so long as WRs Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez are down, the offense isn't going to be nearly as explosive as advertised. Add in the traditionally weak Colts special teams against the absolutely explosive Chiefs, and there's a reason why this isn't a double digit spread. Or final.

Colts 31, Chiefs 24

GREEN BAY at Washington (+1)

This is the one spread this week that I'm really not understanding at all. So the Packers have issues running the ball, and didn't look particularly sharp in escaping Detroit with a win. But it's not as if the Redskins were airtight in beating the Eagles in Philadelphia -- heck, if Jason Avant catches a ball that hits him in the hands, they lose -- or that they aren't the same club that everyone was ready to bury after back to back losses to Houston and the Rams. And well, the Texans and Rams don't have nearly the same pedigree as the Pack. Without RB Clinton Portis and with their usual collection of spare part wideouts, they will not be able to avoid turnovers... or keep QB Aaron Rodgers, and especially TE Jermichael Finley -- from cashing those in. I couldn't be more confident about this game, really.

Packers 30, Redskins 20

Chicago at CAROLINA (NL)

There's no line to this game because no one knows if QB Jay Cutler will play or not, but I'm going with the home team anyway. Carolina showed a spine and a running game last week on the road in New Orleans, and even though they will be missing WR Steve Smith for this one. I'm looking for the home team to stay patient with the running game and eventually break through, and for the Bears QB -- whoever it is -- to go down a half dozen times. And while I know that I'm giving up points by going early, so be it.

Panthers 20, Bears 16

DENVER at Baltimore (-6)

Bronco QB Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards, mostly because he has no running game at all, four reasonable wideouts to throw to, and an offensive line that's keeping him clean. It also helps that his defense isn't very good, and his coach does not care about establishing the ground game. Baltimore is a very good team with a very suspect secondary, and while they will win this game and foce turnovers, they won't run off and hide. Here's another big road dog where I like the cover.

Ravens 31, Broncos 27

New York Giants at HOUSTON (-3)

The Giants weren't looking like a great matchup in this game to start, and then they possibly lost RB Ahmad Bradshaw to injury in the SNF game. Houston brings a jackhammer ground game -- yes, I know that Oakland is terrible, but when you get Derrick Ward off for big gains, you've got a monster line -- home against a team that usually needs third and long to generate real pressure.

It also would help immensely if Texans WR Andre Johnson can make it back for this one, since Houston loses the ability to make the defense guard more than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage when he's gone. I like his chances of coming back and scoring in this one, but more than anything, it'll be the Houston ground game that will put it away. This division is looking more and more like the Texans' to lose.

Texans 30, Giants 19

NEW ORLEANS at Arizona (+7.5)

Don't get me wrong on this pick; I'm not in love with the Saints this year. They really haven't played a good game yet, they miss RB Reggie Bush in the red zone a lot -- WR Lance Moore is good, but not that good -- and the deep game to WRs Robert Mecham and Devery Henderson has been AWOL. But the Cards might be the worst 2-2 team in the history of the world. With QB a complete cesspool, RB Beanie Wells in coach Ken Whisenhunt's doghouse, the defense in full-on quit mode and the sense that the party ended with Kurt Warner's retirement, I'm not liking any part of their season right now. It's high time for QB Drew Brees to put up a 300-yard 4-TD day, and this will be the week.

Saints 34, Cardinals 13

Tennessee at DALLAS (-5)

Is everything right in Dallas now? After a bye week and the continued stumbles of the rest of their division, you'd have to think so. This week, they get the not quite kosher Titans, who are not particularly enjoying RB Chris Johnson's hangover year and QB Vince Young being, well, a very poor man's Steve McNair. (Pre-death.) You have to assume that Dallas spent the time off looking at enough film to realize that RB Marion Barber is spent, RB Felix Jones is fat, and RB Tashard Choice shouldn't have that one brain-dead play against the Skins held against him in perpetuity. Dallas is flawed, but they are also coming off the bye and more flexible. They'll win this by a deceptively large score after a late turnover, and think that everything's fine. It won't be, but later.

Cowboys 27, Titans 16

SAN DIEGO at Oakland (+5)

I hate giving points to this Chargers team, who have been one of the worst road favorites in the league this year, with wipeouts in Kansas City and Seattle to their credit. And this Raider team doesn't have the usual amount of quit in it, thanks to the presence of guts and heart and not enough arm QB Bruce Gradkowski. But the home team just doesn't stop the run worth a damn. The Texans more or less stomped them last week, and RBs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert will do it to them this week.

Combine that with the fact that the Chargers big passing optioins help to negate the Asomugha Effect, and that the vaunted Raider Black Hole home field advantage hasn't really existed for 5+ years due to the fact that even Raider Fan has a pain limit, and you get a shaky road favorite cover. It also doesn't help that breakout RB Darren McFadden had to have his usual hamstring injury this week, and the Raider WRs are all banged out. Oh, and I'm also hoping that the Chargers have finally figured out kick coverage. That'd be nice, too.

Chargers 26, Raiders 20

Philadelphia at SAN FRANCISCO (NL)

I don't mean to buy into the region's negativity, but the Kevin Kolb Era is looking more than a little cursed, really. This week, he gets the nod as Eagle Fan hopes hard for the safe return of Michael Vick in the horror field of Candlestick, where the Birds have frequently spit the bit in increasingly maddening ways. But the offense isn't my concern here. Rather, it's the RB/TE duo of Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, aka the two biggest areas of attack for any team wanting to beat an Andy Reid defense. The Niners will control the ball and convert in the red zone, and the Eagles will, well, not. And as for Kolb, well, the QB always gets too much credit when a team wins, and too much blame when they lose. Here comes the latter.

Niners 24, Eagles 16

Minnesota at NY JETS (-6.5)

Brett Favre's return to JetLand will, one suspects, go a little less huggy than Donovan McNabb's to Philadelphia. As a matter of fact, I suspect he'll be booed as if he were Tiki Barber, really. The Vikings come in off a bye and maybe even with WR Randy Moss in tow; as I write this, he's supposed to be close to a deal from the Patriots. It also helps that CB Darelle Revis isn't likely to play, and the Jets are bound for a letdown game after two straight punkings of division rivals. But then again, they are really going to want to hurt Favre. And with the Vikings offensive line still a mess, and the usual quality effort against the opponent's run game, they'll get that opportunity. Along with a coming out party for WR Santonio Holmes.

Jets 24, Vikings 13

Week Four: 6-8

2010: 27-30-5

Lifetime: 283-277-16