NFL Week 8 Picks: Beyond Disguise

Fresh from a highly encouraging week -- four more of those, and I get to keep my thumbs! -- we move on to Halloween Week in the NFL. This is the time when we are distracted from the watered-down bye week horror to see the always encouraging sight of cheerleaders dressing in costume, because their normal costume clearly isn't pushing enough of our buttons. FTT greatly encourages this, but I'd like to see more creativity shown by the squads, seeing how they are the only people on the field that all (or nearly all) viewers approve of. You rarely hear someone's hate of the laundry extend to the poon; even loyalty to your own laundry's poon isn't absolutely required of fandom. It could even be argued that your lecherous fantasies of Enemy Poon add to your enjoyment of the spectacle, since that means you can do dirty, awful, unspeakable things to her.

Perhaps I've said too much.

Anyhoo... why can't the pep squads do more than your superheroes, nurses, maids and other skintastic solo outfits that they are probably recycling on the side for their own pedestrian office parties? This is the National (breath) Football (breath) League, dammit; we have billions of dollars in a time of economic hardship and systematic retrenchment, and if this circus is not enough to take our minds of our troubles, we might up and get involved in Important Things, to what I'd presume would be disastrous effect. Give me pompom Voltrons that form into five tiered stars of poon, sexy Tetris pieces that interlock in ways that are straight from my more geometric daydreams, pressure activated suits that change color when tagged for a synchronized game of Tag / Disease Outbreak, and much, much more. Halloween, with the joy of grown women dressing down in ways that we'd normally have to pay hard currency for, comes but once a year. I request -- nay, demand! -- spank bank ammo that doesn't look exactly like what was provided to us last year.

And with that... on to the picks!

MIAMI at Cincinnati (-3)

QB Carson Palmer is some mobility and comedy away from embracing his destiny as The New Aaron Brooks -- i.e., the guy that puts up huge numbers when behind, mostly from his own actions, providing enough fantasy value that some discount shopper will wind up winning his league by managing the position and going big everywhere else. He's also targeting WR Terrell Owens to downright irresponsible levels, mostly because TO runs the safe routes now, and Carson is tired of seeing his TAInt on highlight shows. But the Bengals have bigger issues than the QB, in that they aren't running the ball effectively (I've seen this Cedric Benson year before, otherwise known as three yards and a cloud of suck), and the defense is a far cry from last year's peppy bunch.

Miami has been a solid enough road outfit, and their defense will make just enough picks and plays to help their own earthbound offense get the job done. It also doesn't hurt that the Fish's own possession passing game -- WRs Davone Bess and Brendon Marshall, TE Anthony Fasano -- has been moving the sticks steadily, if not with a lot of explosion. Against this year's Bengals, it will be enough. Just barely.

Dolphins 24, Bengals 20

Jacksonville at DALLAS (-6.5)

On some level, as an Eagles Fan, I'm actually kind of rooting for Dallas to recover their season now. I don't want them to have a real high draft pick, and if they play .500 the rest of the year, maybe they decide that QB Tony Romo is the whole problem, and we'll go back to the good old carousel days of Quincy Carter, Ryan Leaf, Drew Bledsoe... oh, those were good times, my friend. Romo may not be the second coming of Roger Staubach, but he's clearly the best they've had since Troy Aikman, and if there's any way that the franchise's baser instincts can be brought to the fore in this lost season, I'm all for it.

The Jaguars, perhaps the league's least essential team, come into town with an unsettled QB situation, a nationwide audience of disappointed Maurice Jones-Drew owners, and 40+ players on the roster that your average NFL fan could not pick out of a police lineup, even if they were in full pads. Even backup QB Jon Kitna, with a week of practice to oil up the joints and work out the rust, can go for 225 yards and 3 TDs against these clowns, especially when he gets a short field.

Cowboys 31, Jaguars 16

Washington at DETROIT (-1.5)

Historically, this game is a stomping of fairly comic proportions; I don't have the all-time numbers in front of me, but I think the Skins are something like 666-1 against Detroit, with the one loss happening in the Jim Zorn Era, which probably means it doesn't count. However, I don't really put much faith into all-time records in a league with as much turnover as the NFL, and this Skins team really looks like less than advertised. Despite the winning record and a half dozen turnovers from the ever-giving Cutler Bears last week, they could only manage a three point win, mostly because RB Ryan Torain really isn't very good, and he's still better than the other Skin skill players... who are also better than their train wreck of an offensive line. On the road in a loud dome with a peppy Lions DL, it'll get disappointing for them. Kind of like what happened a month ago in St. Louis, which is to say, Detroit West. And on offense, watch for speed back Jahvid Best to give Washington nightmares, and for WR Calvin Johnson to make some plays as well. Skins CB DeAngelo Hall will miss his Cutler Star Day much.

Lions 23, Redskins 17

Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (-7.5)

Signs of life from the league's last winless team? Yes, indeed; the Bills led by two touchdowns twice against the Ravens in Baltimore, terrifying suicide pool players and Raven Fan alike, before spitting the bit late with their failure-insuring defense. Despite the super Mario powers of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep the desperate Bills-playing fantasy leaguers off the ledge, the team from downstate Toronto is still a hot mess, and the Chiefs continue to be the most consistent team in the AFC West. They also can run the ball, and QB Matt Cassel is no longer (a) stinking up the joint, or (b) playing against defenses that can make a mediocre QB look horrible. After this week, they'll be 5-2, and well on their way to a first round playoff loss...

Chiefs 31, Bills 20

Carolina at ST. LOUIS (-3)

On some level, I'd really like this Rams team to win the NFC West this year. At least that way, it would feel like more than slapdash work was being rewarded, and that they were building to something. There's even the chance that they could surprise, since QB Sam Bradford is a serious talent, and RB Stephen Jackson has been among the most noble warriors in the league for the past few years.

This week at home against the no longer winless Panthers, who came back last week against the Niners at home to win with defense and once-again starting QB Matt Moore. The Panthers aren't going to be a comfortably bad team to play; the defense still has a pulse, and they won't quit on head coach Jon Fox, who has never had a team give him a double digit loss year. But that was then, and this is now... and Bradford will find a way.

Rams 24, Panthers 17

Green Bay at NY JETS (-4.5)

Coming off a bye at home against a Packers team that had an emotional tight win against the Packers on SNF, I'm not sure why the spread is this close. The Jets come from the superior conference, have the best starting cornerbacks, should be able to run the ball well, and are at home. I get that the pack has a national fan base and are close in every game, even the ones they lose... but it's hard to see how the Pack keeps QB Aaron Rodgers clean in this one, or how they win if they don't. It also really doesn't help that TE Jermichael Finley and WR Donald Driver won't be around to provide a security blanket.

Jets 27, Packers 20

DENVER at San Francisco (in London) (-1)

What, exactly, does Great Britain have to do to get out of these sad exhibits of American football? The games are always in a mud slog, between teams that never play a sharp game. We all have to pretend that there's something fun or novel about this, other than the simple theft of a home game from one franchise, or another reason for foreigners to hate our country. Here, rest of world, is Troy Smith and a Denver team that just got curbstomped by the freaking Raiders. And we're supposed to pick a winner from this?

Well, OK. Give me the Broncos for a bounce-back game, as QB Kyle Orton does some good work on a short field. The only real moment of suspense left in the Niner year is whether coach Mike Singletary gets run in mid-season, or if he'll get the whole year to fail.

Broncos 24, Niners 17

Tennessee at SAN DIEGO (-4)

Time for the Norv Turner Chargers to pick it up for their mid to late season playoff rush. It will be aided and abetted by a Titans team that somehow flicked the switch in a game they had no business being in against the Eagles at home. San Diego proved last week that they could move the ball even without WRs Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson, and with TE Antonio Gates at half speed. The Titans won't be able to get WR Kenny Britt off the same way, which is right up there with predicting that the second sexual encounter of your life won't last as long or be as memorable. Well, duh...

Chargers 28, Titans 19

Seattle at OAKLAND (-2)

How did this Raider teams put up 59 points last week on the road in Denver? That's more like three games worth of scoring for this earthbound team, especially when they've got QB Jason Campbell behind schedule, and WR Louis Murphy on the shelf. But 59 points happened, mostly because they ran for 325 yards on short fields, with lead RB Darrin McFadden putting up the best numbers ever on your fantasy bench. (And yes, of course, he was on my bench. You had any doubt?) Meanwhile, the Seahawks were smacking the Cardinals so much that they actually went back to QB Derek Anderson. No, seriously. Yeesh.

This week, I like this wildly inconsistent but talented bunch to actually come through in back to back weeks, mostly because the Seahawks are terrible on the road, and the NFC West can't have a team that actually takes care of business. But if you want to imagine that McFadden puts it on the ground twice and the Raiders fall apart, I'm not going to say that won't happen, either...

Raiders 23, Seahawks 20

Minnesota at NEW ENGLAND (-4)

What a perfect week for the Patriots to catch the Vikings. QB Brett Favre is hobbled, WR Randy Moss still doesn't know (or care about) the playbook, the defense looks gassed, and the Vikings special teams are quite vulnerable to a Patriots club that does that better than they have in years. This isn't a very good Pats' team -- the move of Moss shows that they know the ceiling isn't very high, and QB Tom Brady has reached the stage of his career when he can be both very good and tremendously overrated, all at once -- but they'll have enough to take care of this ready to die Vikings team.

Patriots 26, Vikings 21

TAMPA at Arizona (-3)

The Bucs snuck out a win last week at home against the Rams with one of the worst rushing games in the league, and a passing attack that mostly consists of emerging QB Josh Freeman making chicken salad out of chicken... else. But you've got to appreciate the job that second year coach Radio Raheem Morris is doing here, and more importantly, just how terribly vulnerable the somehow .500 Cardinals -- negative 82 points in differential! -- are. It's amazing to think a .500 team makes more sense as a winless outfit, and it's even more amazing to imagine them as a home favorite.

Bucs 24, Cardinals 17

PITTSBURGH at New Orleans (+1)

Another heat check pick for the Steelers, who used a questionable referee call on a goal line dive/fumble to QB Ben Roethlisberger to get past the Dolphins, but not cover a tiny point spread. This week, they go to New Orleans for SNF against the mendacious Saints, who are somehow just a one-point dog despite spending last week getting their hands handed to them by the low-margin Browns. So how they are supposed to stay close to a team that might be the best in the league, or score like it's 2009... well, I'm really not seeing it. Look for the Steelers to score on defense, put QB Drew Brees on the ground several times, and control the ground game. The NBC crew, of course, will use the opportunity to equate Big Ben's "comeback" with Brett Favre's plight, because there's nothing they like to discuss more.

Steelers 27, Saints 20

HOUSTON at Indianapolis (-5)

Huge counter trends here. Picking against the Colts on a nationally televised night game is usually death. But this week, with their wideouts hurt and against a Texans team that's seemingly been designed strictly to get past them? Well, it's tempting... which is why this spread is right in that middle ground spread choice, and makes me pick the Colts to win, but not cover. You have to love Vegas for putting you in these moments. (And while I'm picking on split hairs, give me Texans RB Arian Foster fumbling in a key point, or PK Neil Rackers having a fatal miss.)

Colts 31, Texans 28

Last week: 8-4-2

Year to date: 43-52-10

Lifetime: 323-329-21