NFL Picks, Super Bowl: Old School

No pussy-footing around this time, kids. Here's your FREE NFL Pick.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at Arizona

For the past two weeks, people have been trying to invent reasons to be scared, very scared, of the Arizona Football Cardinals. These reasons include:

1) Any of the following Kurt Warner attributes: his playoff record, his Obama-esque puppy bet with his kids, his comeback God, and his ability to get rid of the ball quick against the blitz

2) The Steelers defense being 21st in the NFL in 2-minute drills, which is more or less what the entire Cardinals offense resembles

3) Arizona being #1 in fumble recoveries, and Big Ben and Fast Willie's tendency to put the ball on the ground

4) The uncertain status of primary WR target, gadfly and relentless chains mover Hines Ward

5) Pittsburgh mostly awful coverage units (29th against kickoffs, 31st against punts)

6) Arizona's a Team Of Destiny, and if you simply ignore the bad month of their season, they are actually a lot better than their numbers and record might indicate

7) Pittsburgh has an above-average number of drops from the receivers, which is part of that whole "offense isn't as good as it should be" thing

8) The NFL, and indeed the entire world, has been topsy-turvey cah-way-zee this year (were you aware that a black man is now the President?)

9) and last but not least, the fact that I like the Steelers.

Let's refute each factor in turn.

1) Cap'n Jebus is good at getting rid of the ball fast against a blitz... but that assumes the hot reads are open, and he can see where the blitz is coming from. Neither of these things tend to be true against the Steelers, which is why they were far and away the best defense in the NFL this year. (Also, the puppy was for *getting* to the Super Bowl. Not winning it. Bad move, Kurt.)

2) Being 21st in 2-minute defense is about the only bad stat you can find for this team. What it really means is that they aren't very good at prevent, but if you are playing prevent, you're generally winning the damn game. So, um, not too much to be scared of there.

3) Fumble recoveries are luck. Betting on luck can work, but isn't recommended.

4) Ward practiced today, and will play. If there had been no bye week, this would have helped the Cardinals immensely; you don't play Baltimore without getting very beat up.

5) Yes, indeed, but the Steelers have actually been, with the exception of a Darren Sproles long gainer, reasonably good on special teams in their two playoff games. It's a concern, but not an overwhelming one, and while Steve Breaston is a good football player, he's no Sproles in the open field.

6) Ignoring the bad month still leaves you with a team that can't run the ball, has serious coverage issues in the secondary, and struggles on defense if they don't get big play turnovers. Against a patient Steeler attack that will want to run the ball, it's not very likely.

7) Yes, sure, but Pittsburgh has been better at protecting the quarterback recently, which means Heath Miller has become a factor in the passing game. If you are looking for a long shot MVP candidate, take the TE; I could easily see him getting something like 8 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs in this game. Arizona simply has no one to match up with him in coverage.

8) Steelers owner Dan Rooney went for Obama, which helped to lock down Pennsylvania. Arizona is the home state of John McCain. The stench of failure permeates.

9) Yeah, whatever. I also took the Steelers and laid the points in both of their playoff games. Let's put this meme to bed.

So... what we are left with is a Super Bowl that, no matter how I look at it, keeps feeling suspiciously like one of those games from the '90s, back when the Super Bowl stunk every year.

You have a power team with a dominant defense against a finesse team that scores a lot of points. Hmm.

You've got a cold-weather Eastern (well, fine, Pittsburgh is kind of Midwestern, but you get the gist) team against a non-traditional contender from the West. Heh heh.

What's to say that Pittsburgh doesn't jump out to an early lead, then bares its teeth on defense and spends several quarters making Warner look like...

Pre-Terrell Davis John Elway.

Stan Humphries. (I just made Charger Fan cry a little.)

Jim Kelly, only without the RB threat.

It's time for an old-school terrible game, folks. In this era of any team getting on a hot streak, that's the biggest upset pick I can think of.

Steelers 31, Cardinals 16

Last Week: 1-1

Playoffs to date: 4-6

Year to date: 137-118-7

Theoretical bankroll: Up $360