NFL Picks, Conference Championships

Three games left in the NFL season, folks, and they both look dangerously easy to predict -- especially given how flat-out crazy the playoffs have been so far this year. But as wacky as the last week was, I was an obvious delay of game penalty and several ridiculously unlucky red zone turnovers away from going 3-1 last weekend, with the only missed pick being the Jake For God's Sake game in Carolina.

So as stupid as it sounds to say this... I'm actually feeling reasonably confident about this weekend's games. That's because there are two clearly better teams in each matchup, so much so that you may feel strongly compelled to visit a certain sportsbook.

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

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PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Arizona

How much do I work on these picks, folks? Enough to listen to the Bad Tooth's podcast, where he compares my hometown team to Big Pussy from "The Sopranos", has a guest advocate a BCS-style playoff to prevent us from the horror of a mediocre regular season team playing its best games late, and talks about how the NFL season is just ruined -- ruined! -- for him because, WAAAAHHHH, the Eagles beat the Giants and everything is just so random and meaningless now. (He also talks about how he can't understand why he gets hate mail. Seriously, Wee William, just go all the way and hit us with the steel chair. It'd be less obvious.)

This paragraph replaces one in which I take the Tooth's bait and recommend many anatomically unpleasant things, mostly because I think he'd enjoy them. Besides, Philly Fan is well aware of how our wins don't matter as much as other team's. And with that, let's go to another retrospective of the '87 Celtics, who were so much more dominant and meaningful than the '83 "Fo Fi Fo" Sixers. It must be nice when your teams are the World Wide Lemur's house pets. Anyway, moving on.

The single nugget of joy that I got out of that oral surgery was not worth it, but still worth sharing. Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders, a relatively dispassionate and useful purveyor of nerd stats, checked the history of teams that won playoff games after getting a big mess of turnovers, like Arizona did last week.

Teams that had five takeaways in a playoff game, in their next game, averaged... drum roll, please... two. The list also includes lots of team like, say, the Jacksonville team that ended Dan Marino with a 50+ point playoff win, who wind up losing their next game.

Can Arizona win? Of course. Are they *likely* to? No. How should you bet? On what is likely, of course. But let's go deeper.

The case for Philadelphia: The defense is playing its best football of the Reid Era. Donovan McNabb has been very accurate for the last two games. David Akers and Sav Rocca are suddenly hot. They match up *very* well with this Cardinals team, as the Thanksgiving Night Massacre showed. Asante Samuel gets to go against Larry Fitzgerald, giving the team a chance at a big play back against a guy that's just murdered the Falcons and Panthers. Brian Westbrook gets to go against a defense that isn't Minnesota or New York. Eagle Fan will be there -- having priced airfare and tickets myself in moments of weakness, you can do the trip for $1K, lock, stock and barrel -- and if they have 10% of the stadium, they could easily make a third of the noise. They are experienced in the playoffs, and unlike last week, face a team that has played the same number of games as they have.

The case against: If this is a shootout, they just aren't as explosive as the Cardinals. On some level, despite the Cardinals' wins so far in the playoff, they could still be looking past them to the Super Bowl. The Cards are a very different offense than the last two clubs that they've faced, and if receivers are as open as they were against the Giants, Warner will not miss as much as Eli did. Samuel has been battling a hip problem, and if he can't go, the defensive line will have to be fantastic. Westbrook is obviously not right, and is averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in the playoffs. Just because the team hasn't played a clunker since Washington doesn't mean that they still aren't capable of it. Reid is just 1-3 in NFC Championship Games, and 0-1 against Warner on the road.

The case for Arizona: Larry Fitzgerald is the living embodiment of amazing. The defense has been getting huge pressure and making plays. The home crowd are playoff noobs, which means that they'll cheer as if the home team is playing with house money. Warner's an experienced playoff quarterback. The running game isn't great, but it's no longer terrible, and the offense is extremely good in the red zone. Should be playing as loose as a home team can at this stage in the playoffs.

The case against: It's just a terrible matchup against this defense; as their entire season has shown, they are a different and not very imposing animal when Warner is pressured, and he should be pressured in this game. There's very little chance that they will get as many takeaways again, and if they don't, the defense will give up points. The loss of tight end Steven Spach is a problem, and the much bigger problem is Anquan Boldin, who hasn't been healthy or himself for a long time. If Boldin is 100%, this offense is explosive and has a serious matchup advantage of Boldin against Sheldon Brown, but if he's not, they can be defended. Ken Whisenhunt has never been a head coach at this stage of the playoffs.

The pick: Westbrook won't get 1.9 yards per carry, folks, and the Cardinals won't enjoy a massive edge in turnovers. So long as the road team gets out of the first without being down big, I think they are going to win this game. (And thank the Cardinals on a level that's almost as much as the Raiders, since they wouldn't have enjoyed the trip to Carolina nearly as much as this one.)

Eagles 31, Cardinals 20

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)

First things first -- this line sucks. It's at least a point to two points higher than I'd like, given how these teams couldn't have played tighter games in the regular season, and dammit, more people should be getting sucked in to the idea that the Ravens are the Six Seed of Destiny in the Apocalypse Six Seed Super Bowl. But so be it.

The big thing that you hear, in the lead-in to this game, is how hard it is for one team to beat another three times in a season. This statistic, by the way, is total horsespit. Here's how hard it is: there have been 18 cases where a team had the opportunity to go to 3-0 in the playoffs in a head to head matchup. And they won 11 of them.

Look, there's a reason why the 2-0 team wins more often then they lose; they are usually better. They almost always have home field; they also have the confidence to know that they can, and do, beat these guys. They lose some as well; it's hard to win playoff games, period. But if you are going with the Ravens just on the Third Time's The Charm gambit, you're on a pretty thin branch.

Another point about those two earlier Steeler wins: the home team wasn't as good then as they are now. So long as Willie Parker looks as good as he did against the Chargers (and no, of course he won't against Baltimore, but half of last week's output will be fine, and he'll get more than that), the Steelers are a dramatically better offense. San Diego's not a great defense by any means, but they can do some things, and last week they got absolutely steamrolled by the men from Iron City... and with Parker and Mewelde Moore getting consistent and positive running plays, that means that Big Ben's got time and space. When he's got those things, folks, there might not be a better QB in the league.

Oh, and their defense is pretty freaking good, too. Note that Joe Flacco's second game against them was a lot worse than his first, which is not exactly the trend you want to see from your rookie QB.

For the Ravens, not to put too fine a point on it, but they committed Grand Theft Football last week in Tennessee. Had the Steelers had to go on the road, it would have been a more difficult game for them, especially if the home team still had Chris Johnson. Anyway, lets go to the tape.

The case for Pittsburgh: At home, with a much more explosive and balanced offense. Have beaten this team twice before when they weren't at full strength. Have the best unit in the game with their defense. Baltimore's corners can be had, as Kerry Collins showed in racking up nearly 300 yards in passing, with a lot of that to fraud number one receiver Justin Gage; they'll have much more trouble with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.

The case against: Ben's playoff record is not exactly pristine; if pressured, he can make big mistakes, and the Ravens' defense lives to score. If Parker or Ben gets hurt, and both have been dinged up this year, all bets are off. LaRon McClain can wear down a defense, and Willis McGahee has made a surprising number of good plays (i.e., any) in the playoffs. If they don't get pressure on Flacco, he's got the arm to make enough big plays to swing a game. They should have a disadvantage in punting, not that this showed up last week. The Ravens won't be cowed by the home field or crowd noise, and anything can happen in a division game like this one. (And if you don't believe me, go talk to the Giants. Assuming they aren't busy trashing cars.)

The case for Baltimore: Might have played their bad game last week and gotten away from it. Home teams in this playoff have been far from invulnerable. The defense can score, and when that happens, they usually win. Coach Harbaugh has a vibe about him; he's like one of those Internet poker players that gets to the final table in a tournament, in that while you wait for him to make a mistake, he's stealing you blind. Have to feel like they are due to break through, given how close they came to winning both of the first two games.

The case against: Really didn't do enough to win against the one seed last week. Flacco's just got 10-for-24, 120 yards and 2 picks staring down the barrel at him in this one. Opposing field goal kickers hate Heinz Field for very good reasons, which is to say, the Steelers have an advantage in the kicking game.

The pick: Maybe I'm just making too much out of having a healthy Parker against a pedestrian Charger defense, but damn, the Steelers looked good last week. It'll be close for a while and you will never see a playoff game where both teams are more afraid of the other team's safety... but the difference in this game is as obvious as Flacco vs. Roethlisberger. Give me the guy with the ring, the home field, the better mobility and the better wideouts. Despite the fact that I'm fairly convinced that I'm going to get sucked out with late points to lose the cover.

Steelers 24, Ravens 16

Last week: 2-2

Playoffs to date: 3-5

Year to date: 136-117-7

Theoretical Bankroll: Up $365