Thursday, March 15, 2012

The Center Of Attention

You will excuse Magic Fan if he's not real happy with how this is going down. But it might be -- might be -- a good thing.

Dwight Howard, the defensive hammer and recognized best center in the Association (and thus, the world) is the focus of the whirlwind that is the NBA trade deadline. If Orlando were New York, LA or Boston, this would have reached Lin-Tebow levels of media coverage, but still, it is an awful lot of words about something that hasn't happened. But that's what happens in these situations now, since we like to watch soap opera much more than we like to watch ball.

Predicting the situation is pointless, but the sensible thing to do for Orlando is move him. Everyone thinks he's going to New Jersey with a new stadium to fill, with side plays for rent-to-own teams like Portland, Houston and Boston (yes, this is the Rajon Rondo move that won't die) cropping up. The Knicks, Clippers and Lakers have always been in consideration. But what no one really seems to be discussing is whether Howard *really* matters, because while he might be the best center in the game, I'm not sure that you win with him as the best player on your team. (Oh, and one other thing about anyone who thinks that Brook Lopez is a decent consolation prize? He can't stay healthy and doesn't rebound worth a damn. Kind of a problem for a guy playing center.)

The whole thing seems unreal and astounding, that a young center in the prime of his career might not be relevant to a championship conversation. But, well, no. The free throw problems aren't going away, so if he's your horse, you've got to be ahead late and/or avoid close games, and no one does that while winning a championship. You can get him in foul trouble without too much trouble; he also tends to take technicals that lead to more calls. His offensive game is much better than when he started, but still, not really all that great; he's best served by cleaning up garbage and finishing what a point guard starts. The defensive reputation is stronger than the reality, since the blocks don't stay in bounds. He does get away with a lot of goaltending, though.

And the really naughty thing that we're not allowed to say, because LeBron James hasn't won a title and Kobe Bryant has always tied his rings to having Shaq or Gasol inside to defer attention, and the Spurs won with Duncan and the Celtics won with Garnett and both of those guys had credible sidekick 5s when they weren't doing the job themselves... is that a stud center is merely the finisher in an NBA world where close and late also requires you to be the igniter. The game has changed, and more importantly, big men don't get bailout foul calls, or hit enough of them, to make them the preferred option in close and late.

So that's where the Magic are: more or less forced to make a move, which hardly seems like a good bargaining position... but also moving a guy who is more than a little overrated, in an era where, like the "importance" of a baseball closer, the true value of a dominant center is probably wildly out of line with the actual value. (Especially when, like Howard, his value is problematic.) All I know is that if I was starting a franchise and trying to win a championship in 2012, here are the guys that I'd rather have than him, without even a lot of thinking about it... Kevin Durant. LeBron James. Dwyane Wade. Kobe Bryant. Derrick Rose. Russell Westbrook. Chris Paul. Kevin Love. LaMarcus Aldridge.

Then, maybe, Dwight. But only because Pau Gasol seems messed up in the head.

And there has never been, in the history of the Association, a time when you could rattle off 10 guys to answer that question before you got to a center...

DJ's Deal, and the Eagles become the Phillies

So the football laundry did the deal with WR DeSean Jackson today, with a thoroughly sensible 5 year deal for $51 million that doesn't tie the club down too badly in event of injury or ineffectiveness, and gets him in under the gun. You can't argue that he's overpaid, given the insane cash thrown at Calvin Johnson, the better money thrown at Vincent Jackson, and the comparable cash to get Pierre Garcon to DC. And while some diehards in the Eagle world were dreaming of upgrading to Dwyane Bowe to have a more consistent physical presence from your ostensible top guy, or the DJ with Better Attytood from Pittsburgh (Mike Wallace), or even the dumb bunny fun of Randy Moss or Plexico Burress, it's hard not to see how this isn't the "right" move. (They could, of course, still sign Plax. He's not likely to be that expensive.)

DJ knows the system, has produced here in the past, and hasn't gotten so much money that the locker room is going to want to follow his 2011 example of being distracting and distractable. In the realm of diva wideouts, his offenses have been mostly minor; 15-yard flags for dubious touchdown celebrations and inconsistent play is more of the rule, rather than the exception, for the position.

Rather, I'm more interested in what the signing means, especially when you combine it with the Trent Cole and Todd Herremans deals. Across the street, the Phillies have had the best era in their history (by a large margin) by locking down nearly all the windows and doors from core performers. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino are all going to grow old and wealthier in the colors, and one suspects that when the window of opportunity closes, it's going to be with a creaky, ordinary or worse offense and a defense that erodes like a cave formation. But the team has also enjoyed wild success, division dominance, incredible attendance and a ring -- all of which, of course, is more than what the Ship 'Em Out Birds have seen, especially in the seven-plus years of Coach For Life Andy being at the slowly sinking helm.

Maybe the Cole and DJ signings are a new day (though Winston Justice, Juqua Parker and, any minute now, Asante Samuel would argue otherwise). Perhaps the front office, stung by the low batting average of last year's free agent shopping spree, is more interested in taking care of its own men of record. And whether or not that's actually a good thing, since it's a reasonable bet to assume that Cole, DJ and Herremans have all played their best ball already, and will provide diminishing returns over the course of their deals and starting playing time. The fact that this is football, and teams can walk away from commitments with speed (Peyton Manning Colts jersey, anyone?), mitigates the stasis claim, but still, telling.

In the final final on this, I can't help but be happy that DJ got paid, and that I'll continue to be able to root for him. Of course, if he plays badly or gets blown up, or if his otherworldly speed and moves regresses to the level of his questionable hands, route-running and effort, it'll be one more nail in the coffin of Coach For Life. But after the first 200, who's counting?

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Top 10 reasons why Mike D'Antoni "resigned"

10) It's worth a wee bit more of him to quit than be fired

9) Somehow wasn't able to win games with a roster of one-dimensional losers

8) There's only so much magic in Jeremy Lin, really

7) Taking money to get away from this mess isn't exactly hard

6) Didn't think much of his chances to hold off the Bucks and Cavs for his chance to get rolled by the Heat in the first round

5) Wanted to make sure that Carmelo Anthony took every ounce of blame for this season

4) Easier for him to get run than the large number of well-paid mediocrities with toxic contracts

3) Greases the skids for the inevitable return of Isiah Thomas, and in that moment, I just made Knick Fan lose his lunch

2) Just didn't have the same, um, magic without Steve Nash

1) For the exact same reason why he took the job in the first place -- a big payday without any kind of actual expectation to win games, or any real threat to his reputation, since no one really expects any coach to win for the Dolan

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Bucks Go All In, The Warriors Go All Out

Tonight in the Association, you get to see that rarest of trades: the one where one team goes into the tank, and the other will soon join them. Fun!

Milwaukee moved Andrew Bogut, Stephen Jackson and a barely contained sense of glee to the Bay Area for shoot-constantly guard Monta Ellis, energy tweener and Scrabble bailout Ekpe Udoh, and the eternal ballast that is Kwame Brown. And while this looks like nothing more than a load up move for the Bucks, I'm not sure this really gets it done, even in the bottom rungs of the Eastern Conference... because the Bucks already had Ellis in undersized "point" guard Brandon Jennings, and the Bucks are, in all likelihood, going to think that they can get away with putting them both on the floor. Which would work if either of them rebounded, but, well, they don't... and even reigning Player of the Week Ersan Ilysasova can't get enough boards to get this moving. They might get to the playoffs now with the Knicks in free fall and the Cavs not quite ready yet, but I'm not sure that's a real benefit, when the Heat await.

Still, I see the Bucks' thinking here: Ellis and Udoh are at least somewhat useful, especially if you can move Jennings to a team that hasn't realized he's a low-percentage use guy rather than someone on the rise, and Udoh's fun to play with. And they gave up, well, nothing. Let's look at that side of things now, shall we?

The centerpiece for the Warriors is Bogut, the onetime first pick in the draft, and the first guy to wear the laundry and play center that won't be an active embarrassment in, well, decades. (Seriously. This franchise now looks fondly back to Erick Dampier.) But that assumes that the burly Aussie can actually stay healthy -- which, as the fact that the Bucks just moved him, is pretty much a guarantee that he can't -- and even when he is on the floor, his value is limited by weak free throw shooting and a shaky handle. He's not bad for a true 5, but the plain and simple fact of the matter is that true 5s are few and far between, and can be taken out of the game entirely by a good up-tempo small lineup.

As for the artist formerly known as Captain Jacks, he might have half a tank of gas and a season of spite towards Scott Skiles to provide some nice moments for the Dubs... but they don't want nice moments. They want losses, and lots of them, to get a very high draft pick to go with the rest of the lineup. And they'll get them... but there's also this.

In Ellis and Stephen Curry, the Dubs basically had similar guys -- shoot first point guards, high volume, with defense issues. Curry is the clearly superior player, since he shoots for great percentages... but he's also made of glass. (Ellis, iron. It's really his best virtue.) By moving the roster to him at 1 and Bogut at 5, the franchise has more or less committed to questions at the most important defensive positions -- and that's just not going to work.

But then again, it's Golden State: they are used to that, right?

Top 10 takeaways from the Brandon Marshall trade

10) Now that Jay Cutler has a guy like Marshall to throw to, the Bears will be as unstoppable as his Bronco teams

9) There is no truth to the rumor that Miami did this just to impress Peyton Manning, unless, of course, it does

8) Marshall's departure means that Miami is going to have to force incomplete end zone lobs to someone else

7) There's absolutely no red flags in sending Marshall, a recovering depressive with a rap sheet as long as your arm, to a hard-nosed city that cares way too much about football

6) This move is really going to help Cutler, especially if Marshall learns how to play on the offensive line

5) Now that Cutler has his old WR, quarterback coach and more influence on play-calling, they just need to provide discreet binkies that look like mouthguards

4) Dolphin Fan will get over this as soon as they realize that they don't need to watch Marshall anymore

3) If the Dolphin roster still looks like this in September, you will have to excuse Darrell Revis from literally falling asleep during the game

2) It's going to be a lot of fun to watch Cutler forcing the ball to Earl Bennett anyway

1) Trading for a franchise wideout is guaranteed to make the Bears a playoff team, even more than trading for a franchise quarterback and signing a franchise defensive end