NFL Picks, Divisional Playoffs: That'll Teach You To Be The #1 Seed

For the first time that I can recall, it's a clear hardship to be the #1 seed in either conference in the NFL playoffs. Let's break it down.

The Giants could have played the Cardinals, a team that has been absolutely horrible on its East Coast trips, had an 8-8 record, and has trailed teams by 30 points in the first half on multiple occasions this year. Having been the worst division winner in NFL history, they now may be the worst Final 8 team as well. Instead, they'll get an Eagles team that handled them at home six weeks ago, has won 6 of their last 7 games, with a potentially explosive offense and has a defense that has been one of the best in football since Thanksgiving. All for the pleasure of beating the Panthers in overtime a month ago. (Who, of course, could have had the top seed if they hit a long field goal at the end of regulation, which would have also given the Giants four straight losses to end the regular season. But I digress.)

The Titans could have played the Chargers, a 9-8 team that, while holding a 5-game winning streak, has a banged up #1 RB and TE, doesn't rush the passer very well, and has a highly questionable game coach. Instead, they'll get a Ravens team that has the real most valuable player in the NFL this year on defense (Ed Reed, detailed below), a punishing running game, some effective offensive trickery and some serious momentum after a dominant road win last week in Miami. But they'll always have the memory of stomping on those towels in a home game against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago.

If all of the top seeds advance, it will all have been worth it, of course, because the top seeds will have home field for the conference championship game. But there's no question right now that the fans of both #2 seeds are very happy with how things worked out last weekend. This is also the point in the proceedings where I very adroitly link to a certain sportsbook. (And try not to make last week's mistakes, one of which was to pick the games as a set, rather than as individual events. This ain't literature; themes do not need to emerge.)

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

Baltimore at TENNESSEE (-3)

The second straight week that I'm going against the Ravens as they cast their eyes on a limited game manager quarterback with poor wideouts; let's just saw that I'm not real happy about that.

The case for Baltimore: They'll run well enough so that it won't be all on rookie QB Joe Flacco. Their defense should keep the Titans to 17 points or less, and is always a threat to score. They have the edge in punting, and make more big plays on offense, thanks to the trickery and Flacco's big arm, especially on deep balls. Derrick Mason has been on fire, and the best unit in this game is the Ravens defense. They are more likely to get a big play from their return game.

The case against: You can throw on them, with suspect corner coverage and a pass rush that doesn't get there without blitzing; even when the Ravens play great, they give you some chances. They don't have the bye, and are on the road. They persist in giving the ball to Willis McGahee when Ray Rice does everything he does, but faster. Keith Bullock can and will make Todd Heap disappear, which means the Ravens should play this game without a deep inside threat. Rookie coach, rookie QB and young RBs has to, at some point, mean a shaky game.

The Case for Tennessee: Home with a bye. Got rest for Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, which was critical... and their replacements played well in their stead, which means that their defense could be primed for a huge day. Fisher has managed Chris Johnson's workload all year to keep him fresh for now; he could have another gear to show us against a tired Ravens d-line. The Titans have the much more experienced coach and QB in Jeff Fisher and Kerry Collins, and Fisher's teams are rarely outcoached, especially in a playoff. Rob Bironas gives them more of a chance at a long field goal than Matt Stover. While the Titans wideouts aren't good by any stretch of the imagination, they have been playing better lately, and while Justin Gage really isn't a #1, he could surprise with a big game here.

The case against: If Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch can't go, Flacco could have the time to get comfortable, and when he's got that, the Ravens win, because he makes you defend the whole field. Their offense might not outscore Reed. Collins has considerable experience in crapping the bed in a huge game against the Ravens defense. If Johnson and LemDale White can't move the sticks, it could be an ugly, ugly day for Collins. In a game that could have 20 punts, the Titans will lose anywhere from 50 to 100 yards in punting net yardage.

The pick: It's mostly a coin flip, because unless there is exceptional sloppiness and short fields, it's hard to see either team scoring more than 20 points. But I'm going to take the home town Titans to win and cover, just so I can do it again next week. Charm City, you're welcome.

Titans 24, Ravens 17

Arizona at CAROLINA (-10.5)

The rematch from one of Arizona's better East Coast visits this year, in that they were actually in the game, rather than completely blown out. It's also the late game on Saturday, which tells you all that the NFL thinks about the chance of this one being a barn burner.

The case for Arizona: Edge James looked good last week. A hot Kurt Warner can dominate, and has a very strong career playoff record. The offense can be explosive, especially if they get any kind of running game for Warner to use in play action. They have to be due for a good road game. They'll probably be good and loose, with plenty of "No One Believed In Us!" motivation. The defense can make some big plays, especially from quarterback pressure. The weather shouldn't be a factor, which is good, given that snow makes the Cards assume the fetal position. (And yes, I am still bitter over my fourth place fantasy football points league ranking following Warner's big effort in New England. It was just $60, but the pain stays, you know?)

The case against: There are reasons -- many -- why no one believes in them. Without Anquan Boldin, they are lacking the big RAC guy off short yardage, which is a real problem in a game where there will be pressure early. Road, no bye, with a coach that hasn't been the head guy on the road in a playoff before. Just an ordinary or worse team when defending the run, which is, um, a fairly large problem when you are playing Carolina. They've trailed early on the road all year, and if they do that in this game, it'll get ugly. Mistakes in the secondary are rampant.

The case for Carolina: Home, bye, and just (a lot) better. The Cardinals have no one that matches up at all well with Steve Smith, and also have real worries when staring down that running game. Defensively, they are more or less a perfect matchup for the Panthers, who don't defend the run very well, but won't have to after they get an early lead.

The case against: Well, everyone thought Atlanta was going to win last week, so Arizona certainly has some chance. Jake Delhomme has a solid postseason record, but that's got to end at some point, given some of the turdburgers he's groaned out this year. Carolina lives off big plays out of the running game; if they don't get them, they could get antsy and throw too much. With any big point spread favorite in the playoffs, a close game at the half can make things way too tight.

The pick: Carolina won this game, 27-23, in late October, when the Cardinals were playing their best football of the year. It was a comeback win, with Jake Delhomme finding Steve Smith to get it done. In January, in cold, off a bye and against a Panthers team that has been the best team in the NFC in the second half of the season? No way. No freaking way.

Panthers 31, Cardinals 17

PHILADELPHIA at New York (-4.5)

The latest in a series of street fights that goes back to the last Great Depression. Saying these teams are familiar with each other is like saying you're familiar with your teeth. And if it's anything but a 3.5-hour fist fight of more or less pure desperation, we'll all be disappointed.

The case for New York: Should hold a strong special teams edge, as Eagles' kicker David Akers is usually horrible in this stadium. In a field position game, Jeff Feagles is also better to have than Sav Rocca for punting. The home field edge is meaningful here, as Giants Fan won't sell these tickets to Eagles Fan for blood or money, and knows how and when to cheer; the freaky winds in this place are also pretty damn idiosyncratic. Huge end in game-day decision making here, as Tom Coughlin is good at it, and Andy Reid is not. Giants should have Brandon Jacobs and Antonio Pierce healthy and/or non-investigated this week, two critical differences from the last time these two teams played.

The case against: Playing their worst football at the worst time of the year. Without Plaxico Burress, there is no red zone mismatch to exploit, which makes stacking the box against the run a lot easier to do. Somewhere inside the heart of Eli Manning, Super Bowl Champion, there still exists the pick per touchdown guy who doesn't do well under defensive line pressure. Ahmad Bradshaw hasn't been all that great this year, and Derrick Ward might be a little overexposed compared to last year. Defensive pressure is somewhat sporadic, and the secondary has never been airtight. Linebackers can be taken in one-on-one matchups, especially in the flat. Talent-wise, not a clear favorite.

The case for Philadelphia: When they play at their top level, they can beat any team in the league... and avoid the close-game misery that usually kills them. With one exception (the indefensible 3rd and 1 interception on the fly route to Curtis at the end of the first half), Donovan McNabb might have played his best game of the year last week. They match up fairly well with this Giants team, especially now that Burress is out of the picture, and are extremely well-suited if the recent good run defense is for real. Might be able to make a play or two in special teams returns. Have that Team of Destiny feel after the miracle Week 17 suck-in against Dallas, with Chicago and Tampa spitting the bit. It's rare that all of the home teams win.

The case against: With the possible exception of Arizona, the lowest floor of any surviving team -- and yes, that includes the 9-8 Chargers. Clock and game management remain problematic, unless they are playing against a team that somehow does it even worse than they do (i.e., Minnesota). With the exception of the Jeff Garcia Memorial Playoff Game two years ago, do not have a wealth of recent happy memories in big games against the Giants. Punting and kicking usually don't do well in the Meadowlands. Brian Westbrook is not really himself, at least not on running plays and/or screen passes where his blockers aren't performing superhuman acts of pancakery. Might be a little too happy with themselves at this point, seeing as they've likely missed the Reid/McNabb dismissals that were obvious before Thanksgiving.

The pick: Normally when I make these, I go with my first instinct. This time, I just don't have one; the Giants just aren't playing well enough to keep me from having doubts about them. On a neutral field, with neutral bye weeks, I think the Eagles' talent edge in the post-Burress era would be too much to overcome, and while Brandon Jacobs can be a major matchup problem, he's also prone to fumbling and leaving while injured.

But after many back and forths, I think the bye is too much to overcome. That, and the kicking game. But a heart-breaking cover that leaves me unhappy and with the cold comfort of a little cash? Oh, Andy Reid's capable of that. Especially in a game that should see snow and rain.

Giants 21, Eagles 17

San Diego at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)

The case for San Diego: Phillip Rivers might be the best QB in the NFL postseason. I also might want to throw up a lot right now. Darren Sproles is 66 inches of Pure Danger. Antonio Gates, even at half-speed, is a matchup problem. The Chargers have big WRs that are problematic for defenses when the QB is accurate. Hot team that's playing free and easy, given that no one's really expecting them to get out of this round. With LaDanian Tomlinson more or less certain to miss, they will be able to play the best talent without trying to force-feed their broken star. Defensive secondary is prone to big plays, both for and against.

The case against: 70% chance of winter precipitation. 100% chance of Freaking Cold. Norv Turner. Road team. No bye. They don't really rush the passer all that well, which is something you just have to do to have a chance against Pittsburgh, especially if you are going to have a shot at winning the turnover battle. Facing Jerome Harrison and Troy Polamalu, they won't win the turnover battle. Heinz Field is death to opposing kickers, and just plain death to anyone who likes to, well, make cuts or run fast. The Steelers know how to play in that, especially on offense; their opponents, especially from warm-weather locales, don't.

The case for Pittsburgh: At home, rested, and a lot better. Splitting the carries nicely between Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, which is making both men more productive. Offensive line has played all the way up to tolerable recently, which has allowed Heath Miller to get loose and provide them another good option in the passing game. Defense is simply an elite unit, and could force 3-4 turnovers and score. Massive home field advantage.

The case against: Don't protect the QB well enough, or get rid of the ball fast enough, to be an iron-clad favorite. Might not be playing their best football right now, given the Big Ben injury in Week 17 and the loss to Tennessee earlier. Despite the threat of personal violence from multiple Steeler Fans who read this blog, I'm picking them.

The pick: Sorry, Iron City; I'm going with your guys. But honestly, if your team can't overcome my jinx to beat Norv Turner, you weren't going to get past the next round anyway.

Steelers 31, Chargers 17

Last week: 1-3

Year to date: 134-115-7

Theoretical Bankroll: Up $375