NFL Picks, Wild Card Weekend: Uncomfortable Focus

The thing about Wild Card Weekend is that it's the first time since, well, last February that the games (a) mean everything, and (b) can't be avoided. If one of these games is a dog, you're stuck with it, for three-plus hours, until the next one comes around. There's pressure on top of pressure, and this is, along with the fact that there are some questionable teams at this stage still in the mix, why the weekend never delivers four quality games.

This year, we've got added weirdness to the mix, as all of the road teams started out favored, given the seeming weakness of the West teams. But you can make a case for any club at this point, and the spread show it; they are all four points or less, and should be. Given the way this year has gone, with no team dominant or even similar from month to month, and more commitment than that would just be foolhardy.

It all makes a fellow a bit gun shy about going to the sportsbook, but only for a little while, because dammit, it's not *that* hard. Besides, staying away from the action now is just kind of impossible, really: the perfect 11-0 run, after all, means that you can stop picking games for the rest of your life, since you'll have walked away on top.

And with that... on the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

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ATLANTA (-2.5) at Arizona

Two teams that weren't in the playoffs last year, and historically, two of the weaker franchises in the league. It's Arizona's first home playoff game ever, and the franchise's first since the 1940s. That's hard to do, folks.

The case for Arizona: They've got the home field. Kurt Warner has owned the Falcons in his career. They could be pulling off a marvelous hustle here, having more or less coasted for weeks. They're facing a rookie quarterback and a team that's struggled on defense recently; the Falcons really did stagger to the line when it came to stopping people. On a grass field, the Falcons' game of giving it to Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood might not be as strong.

The case against: They might be the worst division winner in NFL history. They had the majority of their wins over teams in their division; against good teams, they trailed by a lot early. Warner under pressure is a turnover machine. Unless you believe in the late-season renaissance of Edge James, they can't run the ball. The home crowd isn't really going to be that potent, since no one in Arizona is actually from Arizona, and they don't believe in this team after the last six weeks of suck. If they don't get to the quarterback, they give up huge plays, because the secondary is prone to big mistakes in coverage.

The case for Atlanta: They could have easily been the #2 seed, and survived the best division in football to get the wildcard. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been absolutely unflappable, and can also make plays with his feet. They've had big road wins before, and the running backs have honestly been the best 1-2 bunch in the league -- and yes, that includes the Minnesota backs. They just don't make mistakes, come out flat, or just seem weak in any way.

The case against: They're very inexperienced -- unless you count Turner's bench-warming days in San Diego, none of the principals has been under these lights before. The Cardinals could throw a big number up on offense and put the Falcons off their ground control game. They might be just happy to be here, or get caught underestimating the opponent.

The decision: Too much on the line here to hope for the Falcons to make tactical errors. The Cardinals will make this a game for a while, but they just have to play too well to make up for their faults.

Falcons 31, Cardinals 27

INDIANAPOLIS (pick em) at San Diego

Two of the hottest teams in football here, with the Colts coming in with a massive winning streak, and the Chargers coming in as the first team ever to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8. Adding intrigue is the health status of LaDanian Tomlinson, who looked like his old self last week in the clincher against Denver, then left early.

The case for Indianapolis: Betting against Peyton Manning against a suspect secondary, with a team that struggles to get heat on the quarterback, is downright dangerous. Dallas Clark has been on fire for the Colts, and Dominic Rhodes has more than picked up the slack for the banged-up Joseph Addai. Marvin Harrison isn't very good anymore, but between him and Anthony Gonzalez, there's more than enough to make teams pay for overplaying Reggie Wayne. The defense has been as good as during the Super Bowl run, and Dwight Freeney is primed for a big game.

The case against: They've been more lucky than good, for the most part, with Houdini acts for their best wins. They spent the first half of the year getting by in the skin of their teeth, and the second half of the year playing tomato cans. Addai not being right makes them very susceptible to becoming a one-dimensional offensive team, and a patient team can move the ball on the Cover 2. They're on the road on grass, against a team that knows them well and has had some success over the years. Their historic weakness of special teams is a real issue here.

The case for San Diego: They're playing with house money at this point, given the Denver collapse; you aren't going to get more "No One Believed In Us!" motivation than they'll have this week. If Tomlinson is healthy -- and there's more than a reasonable chance that he is, since he left the Bronco game when it was more or less in hand -- that means a lot. Darren Sproles is a devastating weapon here, and the Colts don't really have a good matchup for Antonio Gates, let alone the rest of the Chargers big wideouts. They have a major advantage in special teams in this game, and could get a touchdown out of the return game.

The case against: They are an 8-8 team despite playing in a terrible division; if Kansas City had been able to cover an onside kick, their season would have ended weeks ago. Their coach is Norv Turner. Their homefield advantage has always been a little suspect, given how nice San Diego is; it's not as if people are intimidated to go play in that weather. The game could easily come down to Phil Rivers having to win it for them, and regardless of his stats for this year, that's not a comfortable situation, given the length of time that some of his rainbows stay in the air.

The decision: Probably the best game of the weekend, and the loss of a day to get Tomlinson healthy could prove telling. I don't think either of these teams are going to go far in the playoffs -- the Colts just aren't as good as their reputation -- but unless Sproles makes five big plays, I don't see the Chargers getting enough to keep Manning out.

Colts 31, Chargers 24

Baltimore at MIAMI (+3.5)

Probably the most physical game of the weekend here, with the Ravens coming in as the road favorite against a Dolphins team that made a historic turnaround from last year's 1-15 debacle. Both clubs come in from de facto playoff games, with the Ravens taking the Jaguars apart at home, while the Jets ended the Favre Era (one can but hope) in New York.

The case for Baltimore: Probably the best defense outside of Pittsburgh with all-everything safety Ed Reed as the true leader of the squad. A surprisingly potent offense by Ravens standards, with lots of good gimmickry, the strong arm of rookie QB Joe Flacco, an amazing last hurrah year from WR Derrick Mason, and a potent running game led by LaRon McClain. They've absolutely taken apart one-dimensional offensive teams this year, and given the arm strength of Chad Pennington, that could easily describe their opponent.

The case against: Both the coach and the QB are making their playoff debut. They've been surprisingly deficient against the running game on defense to patient teams this year. The defense is very prone to giving the ball back to you with laterals and weirdness on turnovers. They keep giving the ball to Willis McGahee, who's quietly terrible. Mason is the only consistent wideout, and he's played most of the last month with only one arm. If they have to keep Todd Heap in to block, they have no deep middle threat, and Heap doesn't block very well anyway. Special teams are ordinary.

The case for Miami: At home and expertly coached. They led the league in limiting turnovers this year despite running a lot of wildcat wackiness. Surprisingly deep wideout core, with home run hitter Ted Ginn Jr. providing a lot of utility, and tight end Anthony Fasano might be the most underrated player in the NFL. The running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) can do a lot, and they'll stay with a running game even if it doesn't work right away. The defense has been opportunistic and reasonably resilient; it doesn't hurt that the offense rarely, if ever, puts them in a very bad spot. A home team has to win this weekend.

The case against: As you might expect from a team that's one year away from being 1-15 and starts Chad Pennington, this might be the least physically talented team in the post-season. The running game can be stopped, as neither guy really has breathtaking speed or moves at this point in their careers. Home field in warmth, as mentioned before, isn't nearly as imposing as a cold weather game... so maybe this isn't the home team to win.

The decision: Baltimore has absolutely feasted on non-playoff teams this year, and struggled mightily against teams that took care of the ball. I think Flacco struggles here, and the Dolphins ride the home crowd and better preparation to a mild upset. But whoever wins this game is going down next week anyway, so it's really not that big of a deal.

Dolphins 20, Ravens 16

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) at Minnesota

The Eagles enter this game with that handy "the team that no one wants to face!" label -- and by the way, that almost never works out well -- given their lucky suck-out and utter de-pantsing of the quit-tastic Cowboys in Week 17. The Vikings won the division with a last-second long field goal against the Giant irregulars, earning them the NFC North division crown. It's also a fight between former Eagle offensive coordinator Brad Childress against his old mentor.

The case for Philadelphia: Closed the season with a rush, and with the defense playing its best ball of the year, particularly in run defense. Play-calling has been almost sane with its number of running plays in the last month. Correll Buckhalter has mde enough big plays that he might actually touch the ball this week. The Eagles are 4-0 against Minnesota in this century, with a playoff win in January 2005. They generally cause exceptional misery for inexperienced and shaky quarterbacks, and catch the Vikings down one Williams on the defensive line, which means they might actually have success running the ball.

The case against: Historically, they have been hurt by good running offenses in big games, and they are facing the most physically gifted running back in the NFL. Special teams has slipped in the second half, with punt returner DeSean Jackson looking a little run down, and punter Sav Rocca having several bad games. They struggle against active pass-catching tight ends, which describes the Vikings this year. Clock management, replay challenges, and just about everything that comes up in losing a close game is a problem. They are a road team in a loud dome, and might be the most inconsistent team in recent NFL history. If they could lose to Cincy and Washington, they can lose to the Vikings. Hell, they could lose to Temple.

The case for Minnesota: Dominant running game, with Adrian Peterson capable of 200+ yard games and Chester Taylor providing a very good change of pace. Bernard Berrian gives them a deep threat that only needs a throw or two to get the game-changing play they need. Tavaris Jackson can make people miss in space, and the game might be tight enough where that comes into big play. Defensively, they can force turnovers and feed on the crowd. Special teams might be an edge.

The case against: Jackson might be the absolute prototype of the NFL QB that struggles against a Jim Johnson defense; if he could more or less devastate Michael Vick with money on the table a few years ago, he should definitely be able to dial up something that Jackson can't deal with. If the Eagles bring their good running game defense, keeping drives going could become a real issue, and the defense is not built for winning the game without also winning time of possession.

The decision: Honestly, with the Eagles, you're out of your mind to try to pick the games; it's an absolute coin flip as to whether they'll show up and play well. If they do, they'll win. Historically, Andy Reid does well in early round playoff games, and Brad Childress inspires even less confidence than Reid in this situation. Besides, by winning this game, the Fatman more or less ensures that he'll have the coach and GM jobs next year as well, no matter how much they crap the bed in the second round. (And oh, yes, the crapping of the bed in the second round will not be for the faint of heart.)

Eagles 24, Vikings 17

Last week: 11-5

Year to date: 133-112-7