Five Fairly Obvious MLB Points

1) Boston is the only team in baseball that should definitely make it into the post-season.

With a 10 game lead over two teams (the Yankees and Blue Jays) that are over .500, even a weekend sweep at the hands of the Tigers is hardly enough to dim the prospects of the Beantowners.

That means that the last 3 months of the season should be all about making sure that the bullpen is right -- no burning out Papelbon and Okajima for games they don't need -- and trying to get the disappointing ManRam back on track (his .851 OPS would be the lowest of his career). They also need to make sure Mike Lowell doesn't get burned out, and that Kevin Youkilis gets back to full health. But in terms of problems in the AL East, this is the only team that doesn't look like a basket case right now.

2) The best division in baseball is the AL Central.

Detroit and Cleveland are both flirting with .600 baseball, the Twins are above .500 and possess the best second-half pitcher in baseball (take a look at Johan Santana's splits -- he's freaky in the later months), the ChiSox can't be as bad as they've shown so far, and even the Royals are avoiding the 100-loss pace that has been their usual pace. Short of an injury run or unforeseen meltdown, this is where the wild card should come from.

3) For the first time this century, the A's are toast.

After yet another injury to Rich Harden, the team dropped the last series before the break to those continually surprising Seattle Mariners. That drops them to 44-44, 9 out of the division, 8 out of the wild card. Blame the offense, which at 380 runs scored, only outpaces the White Sox. Bring on the kids!

4) The Phillies are just a game away from 10,000 losses.

No pro sports team has lost more -- no, not even the Cubbies. And people wonder why the locals are ornery.

But the team did manage to make it to the break at .500, and earn some outstanding karma, by scrambling on to the field in Colorado and helping the ground's crew.

5) The NL is its usual orgy of mediocrity.

Only the Nats and Reds are more than 10 games out of the wild card, and no team goes too far above .550. From looking at the teams, I'd wager that the Mets, Brewers, Padres and Dodgers are your final four... but there isn't any of these teams is more than a series sweep away from looking very vulnerable.