Monday, May 14, 2007

This Week's Picks

Oh, Smoke. You didn't think we'd find this? Boom boom boom boom boom, indeed. Even money it was Rickey.

Monday

Braves over NATIONALS. This may be the cheapest moneyline you see on the Nats for a while, really. Smoltz over Bergmann, 2500 to win 1,553.

PHILLIES over Brewers. The Brew Crew got bloodied up in New York, and they've never seen the slower than slow slop of Jamie Moyer. 2,500 to win 2,155.

Tuesday - after a 1-1 day, it's time for two slight road dogs.

Tigers over RED SOX. Tim Wakefield has been unconscious this year, and Justin Verlander has been rounding into shape. I like the visitors tonight. 2,500 to win 3,000.

Angels over MARINERS. Felix Hernandez in his first start back from the DL will overthrow, and Kelvim Escobar has been lights out. With Matthews on fire and even Chone Figgins starting to show signs of a pulse, I like the Angels. 2,500 to win 2,925.

Wednesday - another 1-1 day. I was write about Felix, but Escobar was Escoblah. Back to even money.

WHITE SOX over Yankees. Contreras is at home, has a great lifetime record against his old team, and is on a role. He's also on the team with the better record. The Yanks are starting Wang, who hasn't really been himself yet. And the Yanks are favored? 2,500 to win 3,075 on Chicago.

PHILLIES over Brewers. This Brewers team is starting to show its flaws (Derrick Turnbow), and Jeff Suppan's career record against the Phillies will make it worse. Add that to the developing situation that is Cole Hamels, and I like the home town team. 2,500 to win 1,908 on the Phils.

Angels over MARINERS. John Lackey doesn't have a good history with the Mariners, but Cha Seung Baek's run support has to end sometime. 2,500 to win 1,894 on the Angels.

Thursday

A 2-1 day puts us up about a grand.

INDIANS over Minnesota. Fausto Carmona's been good to me, and the Twins are in a world of hurt right now -- even with Johan on the mound. 2,500 to win 3,100.

PHILLIES over Brewers. Not sure why the money line is against the home team on this one -- the Brewers are having a bad road trip, and they haven't seen Freddy Garcia in years. Ben Sheets is good, but he's not infallible, especially in Philly. 2,500 to win 2,950.

Friday

A 1-1 day adds a few dollars to the till. I'm down $5,200, and in fourth. Time for interleague nonsense.

OVER for Rays-Marlins. Edwin Jackson and BK Kim, with a 10.5 line, for two teams that average over 11 already. 2,500 to win 2,049.

A'S over Giants. Barry Zito comes back to Oakland and overthrows against teammates that will lay off the hook. Chad Gaudain with the bounce-back start. 2,500 to win 2,358.

Saturday

Two wins gets us to second, but $7,500 back from the lead. Time to step up the bids with some road teams.

Giants over A'S. These teams always play to .500, and Danny Haren is prone to the long ball. After 15 runs last night, the A's bats go dry against Matt Cain. 3,000 to win 3,930 on the Giants.

Royals over ROCKIES. Do I really trust Gil Meche in Colorado? More than I do Taylor Buchholz, and the Royals have 4 out of their last 5, while the Rocks have lost the same. That's enough to go for the Royals when the moneyline is more or less even. 3,000 to win 2,830.

Padres over MARINERS. The Mariners have only seen Greg Maddux once, and in that game, he struck out 11 in a 2-1 loss. Horacio Ramirez won't hold the Pods down. 3,000 to win 2,727 on San Diego.

Sunday

Oof. A bad Saturday has me rolling for a big dog today, but it's a good one.

Cardinals over TIGERS. Justin Verlander is commanding a big moneyline against Mark Thompson, but his past record against the Cards is spotty, and with the Cards offense showing signs of life for the past two days, I like the chances for an upset. 10,000 to win 18,400 on St. Louis.

Twins over BREWERS. The reeling Brew Crew tries to avoid the sweep with Claudio Vargas against Ramon Ortiz. That looks like a pick'em game to me, but the moneyline is big with Milwaukee. 2,464 to win 3,499.

(Late throw for fun - Padres over MARINERS. That one worked out for 1,500.)

Final... Oh well. If the Cards had won, we'd have had it, but they are, well, worthless. The 1-2 day put us in 9th for the week, but we'd rather swing for Smoke's balls than be an also-ran.

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