The 2009 MLB Season Predictions

In the midst of all that fantasy stuff last week, I forgot to actually take care of the real-world stuff. And while it's usually easier to predict the standings than the individual performances, this year, that's quite different. Why? Well, the same reason as every other in MLB: drugs.

For the past 10 years or more, baseball has managed to play increasingly older talent, as part of its Faustian bargain with the needle. Older guys, given the same or better hand speed and injury recovery time that young guys had, along with the enhanced experience, were just able to keep going into their mid to late 30s and beyond.

But now that the testing seems to actually be effective, and more importantly, MLB looks to cut every corner as part of their overwhelming economic fear, you're going to see the same old-school turnover of older players that was in place for most of the last century. There's also, of course, the possibility that the number twirlers have made some inroads into management, and the concept of Value Over Replacement Player has rid some folks of Teh Fear of giving a young guy a chance in a non-crucial role.

Finally, there's also this: MLB is a copycat league, and the current fad is for defense -- which is, for the most part, just not something that old guys do as well, and certainly not as cheaply. When a team dramatically improves its defense in a year, then goes to the World Series despite having a payroll that's a third or less than its rivals, it gets noticed. (That would have been your Tampa Bay Rays, of course.) When the team that beats them has three-fourths of the starting infield in contention for a Gold Glove, and the outfield composed of plus defenders, provided they weren't named Pat Burrell... well, that also gets noticed.

Suddenly, the Tigers want Adam Everett's utterly non-existent bat to take over shortstop. The Rangers need to move Michael Young to third and call up rookie Elvis Andrus, not because they think Andrus is ready to carry the position at age 20 with his bat, but because by doing this, they better themselves on the entire side of the infield, with Hank Blalock and Chris Davis relegated to DH and first base, respectively. And every team but the dramatically stupid Washington Nationals avoided Adam Dunn, almost as much as he avoids fielding baseballs.

So the rules have changed. It's no longer a case of just knowing who's got the pitchers and hitters; it's now a matter of knowing who is going to age well and who is going to age badly, and who has a farm systems that can restock faster. Where everyone used to be trying to play the Yankees' game, now everyone is more or less laughing at the Yankees. (Who might still win since, well, dominant pitching can overwhelm poor defense, and they did upgrade defensively at first base and in the outfield. Too bad shortstop is still a mess. Just don't tell them; they get mad when you point that out.)

MLB is becoming, in short, more like the NFL, where fast team turnarounds are common and championships feel almost random, because by the time that a team breaks through, it's already most likely to be on the decline. Feel free to add in the warning noises about crazy people and sports betting here.

So, with that rousing call to action under our belts, here are my picks for the 2009 season. I promise that they will be as accurate as the 2008 MLB preview, when the Tigers won the Series over the Diamondbacks. Wait, that didn't happen? Well, then why the hell are you reading this? Right, because you're killing time at work. I understand.

NL East - Marlins (I know, shocking!)

NL Central - Cardinals

NL West - Dodgers

NL Wildcard - Cubs

NL Winner - Cardinals

AL East - Rays

AL Central - Indians

AL West - Angels

AL Wildcard - Red Sox

AL Winner - Red Sox

WS Winner - Cardinals

AL MVP - Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Matt Garza

NL Cy Young - Ricky Nolasco

AL Comeback Player of the Year -- Victor Martinez

NL Comeback Player of the Year -- Chris Carpenter

NL Rookie of the Year - Jason Motte

AL Rookie of the Year - Matt Wieters

We know return you to the World Series defense by your Detroit... um, Philadelphia Phillies. (That's just for Mets Fan.)

MLB Playoff Picks: Phillies-Dodgers and Red Sox-Rays

One of the puff pieces that happened in advance of the NLCS this week spoke to the Useless Dodger Veteran Bench (aka Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent and Juan Pierre) that all have Playoff Experience, but are also mostly ballast for this team. You will be relieved, I am sure, to find out that they are all Team Players who want to play, but remain totally unselfish and professional and so very, very tired...

On the contrary, I'd argue that it took Joe Torre far too long, and that he got fortunate with injuries, to learn that these guys really weren't going to be much use for him in the act of winning ballgames. Pierre's offense has been terrible for years. Jones has seemingly hit a complete wall in terms of no longer being someone who belongs in MLB -- seriously, only his contract is keeping him in the majors right now.

Kent can still hit -- hell, I suspect you'll be able to say that of the man the week that they bury him -- but he can't stay healthy, and he's got about as much right to play second base as I do. (I actually have better range, but being still afraid of baseballs hit with startling speed by grown men, I'm pretty sure that he'd be more effective. Anyway.) Nomar is a reasonable utility fill-in these days, provided you aren't expecting much pop at the plate.

On an MLB Minus team, these contracts would be absolutely crippling, and the Dodgers would have resembled the Bonds-less Giants of a few years back. Instead, here they are, having taken out the doomed Cubs and more or less an even-money bet to go to the Series. All because Manny Ramirez puled his way out of Boston, carrying them to a bad division win, and the luck of the draw got them the team that never, ever wins. Right?

Well, no, not quite. What happened was that they finally played the people that they should have been playing all along. James Loney is a good left-handed hitter and reasonable defender at first, and the only thing that keeps more people from knowing this is that his home park deflates offense. Matt Kemp in center is a stone-cold stud, a man who anyone could tell just by looking at him should never have to want for playing time. I suspect he could be one of the 20 best players in baseball within two years. Andre Ethier in right just doesn't make a whole lot of outs, does everything well, and has upped the ante since the Manny trade by, well, hitting like Manny's little brother. Blake Dewitt at second grinds like a prototype Dustin Pedroia and covers ground.

Combine them all with the return to health of Rafael Furcal (aka, the single non-Manny everyday playing vet that might be worth his contract), and hey presto... it's a good offense. If Russell Martin is fresh enough to hit (they wear him out and he fades every second half), it's actually a very good offense.

Pitching wise, they are also fine, though not as good as the park makes them out to be. Derek Lowe has carried them recently and has an exceptional post-season record. Chad Billingsley has been aces for a while now, and will be cited as such any day now. Hiroki Kuroda isn't great, but he doesn't walk people and keeps the ball in the park; you could do a lot worse from a #3 starter (and when Brad Penny is healthy, you do very well with him at #4). Greg Maddux is the Kuroda story with 350 more MLB wins. The bbullpen has tons of plus arms that are generally reliable.

Oh, and Manny Ramirez is the best hitter in baseball right now. That helps, too.

So why am I picking the Phils to win?

Well, the home field helps a lot here. So does the general feeling that when push comes to shove, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are just better than Lowe and Billingsley. The back end of the Phillies rotation - Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton -- seems more useful to me, to the point where I think the Phils get better starting pitching in every game.

As for the bullpen, the slight hiccup in Game Two notwithstanding, I like Brad Lidge a little more than Takashi Saito, and Jonathan Broxton has utterly filthy stuff, but just seems like a guy who's going to issue a key walk or two. The Dodgers have better depth for an extra inning game, but for the simple act of closing a game in regulation, I think the Phillies have the edge.

I also think the Phillies can win in LA more easily than the Dodgers can win in Philly. I also think that (deep breath) Charlie Manuel has seen enough of Manny Ramirez over the years to know how to limit the damage that Ramirez does, whereas the Dodgers will fear no Phillies hitter -- and wind up paying the price.

Finally, there's this. The way to shut the Phillies down cold is to have quality left-handed pitching. And all of the Dodger starters are right-handed.

Phillies in 6.

Well, Red Sox Fan, welcome to the Hated Favorite status that we all knew you'd get to, or have been arguing you were for years. Here's the plucky and lovable Rays, a bunch of kids -- kids, you bastards!

If you beat them, you'll face one of the most tortured fan bases in the country with the Phillies, or the lovable man-child that you refused to sign to an extension, just because he was a minority, and hated so much that you had to ship him out of town for a nondescript white guy, even while *still* paying his salary.

How does it feel to be the New Yankees, even down to the noxious traveling fan base that ensures that no matter how nice and easy-going your players are, you'll always be known as the opponent of every MLB fan's second favorite team? (In that they root for theirs first, than your opponent.)

But first things first, which is how this strange little series will play out. Tampa has the better rotation and everyday players (especially with Mike Lowell out), while Boston has the better bullpen and home field advantage. Seriously, in all seven games of this series, Boston will be playing in front of at least a 50% fan base.

The teams Just Don't Like Each Other, and Boston's got a ton of post-season experience. Also, while Tampa's starters are good, they aren't lockdown great (even Scott Kazmir can be worked into high pitch counts that prevent him from going deep). Finally, Tampa's hitters will grip the bat too tight in their One Chance To Get To The World Series (seriously, even though they are young and affordable, everyone knows this can't last -- see Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland and every other non-BOS-NYY-LAA AL team of the last decade).

So, I'm just going to pick what will happen, rather than what I want. That way, no matter what happens, I'm feeling like a winner. (Well, at least more than usual.)

Red Sox in 6.

Which, of course, gives us Boston cock-blocking another Philadelphia sports championship, while my football-only friends tell me that they really hate Washington, Dallas and New York instead. Please, my friends, can't we all come together in our hate for Boston teams and her fans? The rest of the nation is already there. Join in!

MLB Playoff Party Picks

As part of the site's mission statement to cause our own pain, the Truth and I will square off in our usual playoff picks challenge. The loser has to write something really, really painful. Scoring is as follows: 20 points for picking the winning team, 10 for choosing the number of exact games, 5 for being one off with the winner. Each round doubles.

While one of us will lose, one of you will win . We'll be awarding a Garment of Greatness (aka, a Five Tool Tool T-shirt) to the commenter with the highest score, so post yours in the comments. It's great for cleaning up spills, scaring small children, and getting you nooky with girls with low self-esteem. (If you are a girl, it'll make your breasts perkier.) So pick already!


Milwaukee-Philadelphia

Yovani Gallardo works Game One, just the fifth time he'll pitch in this year, for a Brewer team that staggered into the post-season. They'll face Phillies ace Cole Hamels, who should be good here. Game two has workhorse CC Sabathia against second-half superstar Brett Myers, and Game Three gives you Jamie Moyer against Jeff Suppan. Game four is said to be Dave Bush against Hamels in the game where the Brewers will miss Ben Sheets the most, and Five, if necessary, would be Sabathia against Myers.

The Phils have home field, rested aces, and unlike the Brewers, healthy starters. They also have fresh reasons for despair, in that Pat Burrell is having back issues, but the Brew bullpen is just shaky enough to give them late-game magic. Besides, they turned their year around with a 4-game sweep that cost Ned Yost his job just a few weeks ago; they think they can beat this team like a drum at home, and they will.

CC has made himself ridiculous money from his three-month NL sabbatical, but it ends here and somewhat decisively, despite the fact that we're talking about more or less even teams. Oh, and watch for a crippling fielding error from the Brewers; they are better than they were last year since Ryan Braun was banished to the outfield, but still not that good. Phillies in four.

Los Angeles-Chicago

The Cubs were a whopping 13 games better than the Dodgers this year while playing in a tougher division. The series starts with Derek Lowe vs. the suddenly dominant Ryan Dempster, followed by Chad Billingsley against Carlos Zambrano. Game three has Rich Harden against Hideki Kuroda, with Game Four being Ted Lilly against Greg Maddux.

Basically, the Cubs should have an edge in every pitching matchup of this series, along with an edge in the starting lineups. The bullpens are more or less a wash, with both closer situations being less than airtight. Hell, I even like the Cubs in the dugout, as Lou Pinella works against Joe Torre; Torre has more rings, but it's not like any of them have come in this century, and he doesn't usually do as well when his team is just ordinary.

If the Cubs can limit the damage from the ludicrously hot Manny Ramirez and a crippling injury to the very good but very worrisome Zambrano / Harden combo, they should sweep. But Derek Lowe has a history of post-season success, and the Cub fan base is all about me-me-me drama, whereas no one is really expecting that the Dodgers are going to be around for long. I think the series is close and tough, but Greg Maddux in Game 4 is a real worry, as he's just not a big-game pitcher anymore. Cubs in 4.

Los Angeles-Boston

Kind of a mirror to Dodges-Cubs, except that in this case, the better team is out West. The Angels coasted to postseason with a 100-win year, ignited in the second half by the suspiciously low-priced trade of Mark Teixiera to really make that lineup go. Boston failed to catch Tampa in the pennant race and has injury issues to go with some shakiness in the late inning pen, though closer Jonathan Papelbon continues to be one of the game's best.

Pitching wise, this goes Jon Lester versus John Lackey, then an off day before Dice-K against Ervin Santana. Once the series moves to Boston, it's Joe Saunders aginst Josh Beckett, and the off day means that both teams are going to skip their fourth starter, at least at present. Santana at home is a lot better than Santana on the road, but Dice has also been living with great fortune -- you don't often see an 18-2 record and sub 3-run ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, mostly from a lot of walks. Lester and Lackey are both great, and Saunders is serviceable. The wild card is Beckett, who has been awful at times this year and fighting through injuries.

Lineup wise, Boston's beat up, and David Ortiz has not been himself all year. Jason Bay's a good player and not a drama fest, but he hasn't been otherworld Manny in the stretch. (Left aside: Manny wouldn't have been, either.) When your offensive MVP is Dustin Pedroia, that's a nice story, but it's not a great offense.

I like the Angels here, but it won't be easy or pretty, especially since this thing lines up very nicely for a big Boston comeback after falling behind. Whoever wins Game One will win the series, and as good as Lester has looked in big moments this year, that's surprisingly close. Angels in five.

Tampa-Chicago

Do you believe in momentum? Then you will love this ChiSox team, who has won multiple elimination games to get the maiden Rays. Tampa was 8 games better in the regular season and has dramatically better pitching, along with a roaring new home crowd and dome that will prove highly irritating to the visitors from Chicago.

Game One has Javier Vazquez going against James Shields, while Game Two gives us Mark Buehrle facing the electric stuff of Scott Kazmir. Game three in Chicago has elimination game hero Gavin Floyd (yes, the Phillies could use him) against Matt Garza, while Game Four has both teams going to Andy Sonnastine versus Jon Danks.

The Rays have the better starting nine, a manager that isn't prone to the crazy talk, a home crowd that will probably clear anything and the better starters. They also will have the usual doubters citing their lack of playoff experience, and at some point in these playoffs, the health of closer Troy Percival and the mental stability of talented head case BJ Upton will prove fatal. I also think they are kind of nuts for trying to turn David Price into Joba Chamberlain at this point in his career, though when you see his stuff, I get why they are falling into temptation.

Anyway, the Rays will lose... but not this early. Tampa in 4.

ALCS and NLCS picks

After going a perfect 0-for-4 in the first round of my MLB picks, I'm dying to get back in the mix of things as part of our little game of humiliation. Luckily, with the points doubling in this round, there's still time for a rousing comeback. (Well, OK, no. But a man can dream.)

As before, pick the winner and the number of games. If you're right on the team, it's worth 20 points; if you are right on the games, another 20. One off on games gets you 10. Picks need to be in before the next round starts.

For everyone that picked before, it's time for your next round, in the comments. Remember, a free FTT T-shirt goes to the non-Tool winner, so even if you didn't get in last round, pick now.

Round 1 Standings

Joeski 60
BD 35
Andrew 35
Ninja 30
Klondike 30
DC Scrap 25
Vegas 25
Original DJ 20
Zach 15
Truth 15
SDuck 10
JCobra 0
DMtShooter 0

Update... for the record, I called Holliday's kill shot homer last night, live, before it happened. Because I Am Just That Prescient. (And because Micah Owings has ownings me before...)

In our little game, Joeski still leads with 60 points, but DC Scrap jumped 30 points to 55. Only three of us picked the Rocks to win round 2, proving that teams that win 21 of 22 just don't get the respect they deserve, really...

Win A Shirt and Enjoy Our Shame: MLB Playoff Challenge

OK, Nation... fresh from the riotous success of last year's NBA Playoff Dare Bet, it's time for our MLB Playoff Picks. Best of all, we're opening this up to the whole Nation.

Here's how it works. You call your shot in all MLB playoff series, both the team that wins and the number of games. For the winning team, you get 10 points, and if they win in the number of games you picked, that's an extra 10. Missing it by just one game gets you 5. The stakes double in each succeeding round. Picks must be in before the start of every series, so act fast and keep an eye on how things are going.

I'll be going against The Truth and the Five Tool Ninja in our continuing battle to see who is the biggest idiot; our picks will appear in this post later today. The losers have to subject themselves to a truly hideous public punishment that will be viewable here on Five Tool Tool. The winner will get to indulge in a epic case of Ha, Ha finger-pointing.

Finally, the top Commenter will win their own free Garment of Greatness -- i.e., a Free Five Tool Tool shirt. So make your picks in the comments now, and get in the game!

DMtShooter's Picks / Truth's Picks / Ninja's Picks
ANA in 4 / BOS in 4 / BOS in 4
NYY in 4 / NYY in 5 / NYY in 4
PHL in 4 / PHL in 4 / PHL in 5
CHI in 4 / CHI in 4 / ARI in 4

Last chance for ball 4?

Smoke Stewart's blog challenge is getting rolled up into some bigger contest, so I'm not sure I'll be picking games too much longer. (Of course, I'm not sure anyone gives a rat's ass.) On to the picks!

Monday

In lieu of actual research, I'm just going to bet the guys I have in my fantasy league. That's gotta work!

Cubs over NATS. Ted Lilly and the Cubs are on a roll, and Jason Simontacchi has too many letters in his last name to be good. 2,750 to win 1,871.

INDIANS over D-Rays. Fausto Carmona's bounce-back win. 2,750 to win 1,368.

ATHLETICS over Jays. Fear Lenny DiNardo! I do. 2,750 to win 2,183.

Braves over DODGERS. John Smoltz is an All-Star. Bet he's excited about that. 2,750 to win 3,190.

Tuesday

D-Rays over RED SOX. Dice-K's been dominant the last few starts... against the NL, in pitcher's parks. Scott Kazmir has gotten good support over the years against Boston, and with ManRam not really being ManRam this year, the Bostonians are susceptible to quality lefties. 2,739 to win 4,930.

Giants over REDS. Barry Zito is an all-or-nothing pitcher this year, and I'm thinking that today will be an all day. The Reds depend on Griff and Dunn to do their damage, and Zito should handle both. He's faced by Aaron Harang, who's due for low run support and some Barroid love. 3,500 to win 3,885.

Thursday

Going all-in early to try and stay alive... Indians over TIGERS. Sabathia's been nails all year, and Verlander has struggled post no-hitter. 4,500 to win 4,635.

Well, so much for that -- Tigers won in a 9-run squeaker. Smoke's balls are safe from the likes of me.

Drawing Ball Three from Smoke Stewart

I pussied out bigger than Roger Clemens this week, riding a fast 5-0 start in the first two days of the week to the win in the Battle of the Blogs.

That leaves us just one more ball away from the 4-pitch walk. Whatsa matter, Smoke, too scared to pitch to us?

Play us out, boys...

This Week's Picks Are Killing Me

After two weeks of looking up at a dog's ass, things are going to change for ol' FTT -- we can just feel it!

Monday - Marlins over BRAVES. The moneyline is too much, and Tim Hudson is not infallible. Sergio Mitre's got some nice numbers, too. 2,500 to win 5,050.

Twins over ANGELS. Bonser and Weaver, and the latter got rocked last turn in Seattle. 2,500 to win 3,425.

Tuesday -- We're up on the Fish win, and in third. Are more of Dave Stewart's smooth white balls in our future? Only time will tell.

WHITE SOX over Yankees. Vegas doesn't want to admit this Yankee team just isn't very good. Mark Buehrle against Tyler Clippard at home, only a slight favorite? Yum. 4,000 to win 3,448.

A'S over Red Sox. I'll be the first in America to say it -- Dice-K is the second coming of Hideo Nomo. A 4.8 ERA when the league hasn't seen you before? Could get... dicey. (I made a funny!)

Lenny DiNardo is the big underdog at home in a game that goes to the A's on defense and bullpen work. (Lenny is also an ex-Sox, so he's got the revenge thing going for him.) Plus, the A's have won 4 out of 5, while the Sox have lost the same. Time to start chewing your fingernails, chowderheads. Oh, wait, don't. The Yankees stink. 2,500 to win 3,750.

Wednesday - Another 1-1 night gets us to... first place? Some folks took some baths.

Cubs over BREWERS. Hunch bet that Zambrano has a bounce-back start, and the Cubs are a near .500 road team. Also, Jeff Suppan went eight scoreless against the Cubs the last time out, and I think he regresses to the mean today. 2,500 to win 2,650.

Devil Rays over JAYS. Last night's 12-11 loss leaves Scott Kazmir going deep. Tomo Ohka starts for the Jays, and has a 5.5 ERA. 2,500 to win 2,525.

Thursday

We're in the lead! Smokey balls for everyone! But by only a few hundred bucks, so back at it...

BRAVES over Cubs. Rich Hill has been great, but Chuck James isn't bad, and the Cubs' recent run of competence will end. 2,500 to win 2,294.

WHITE SOX over Yankees. Jose Contreras usually does well against his old team, and Moose Mussina's 6+ ERA is a big reason why the Bombers have struggled. Nice to grab a home favorite, too. 2,500 to win 2,850.

CARDINALS over Reds. Kyle Lohse has turned back into Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainwright has never started against this team. By the end of the month, the Cards will be neck and neck with the Brew Crew. 4,000 to win 2,667.

Friday - Bah. 0-3 and back to the pack. Shoot me.

Pirates over YANKEES - Tom Gorzelanny is hard to spell and harder to hit, and Andy Pettite's been pitching in hard luck this year. 2,000 to win 3,840 on a big dog.

ORIOLES over Rockies. Steve Trachsel will bore the Rockies to death. Jeff Francis just isn't good. 2.000 to win 2,020.

MARLINS over Devil Rays. Are you on the BK Kim train? Me neither, but he'll win tonight against JP Howell. 2,000 to win 1,639.

A's over GIANTS. No one gives Chad Gaudain any respect, but he's been Oakland's best. Tim Linecum gets the bounce-back game against the Oakland bats. 2,000 to win 2,480.

Saturday

A 3-1 day for a $4K boost leaves us 7,500 off the lead -- and a one-run Yankee win away from being a heck of a lot closer. Time for some I'm feeling over-under action today. And by the way, interleague sucks.

Mets at TIGERS, UNDER. Ollie Perez and Jeremy Bonderman looks like less than 8.5 runs to me. 2,500 to win 2,600.

A's at GIANTS, OVER. Zito and Haren are good, but 7.0 runs looks too fine, especially after Barry got hamemred last time in Oakland. 2,500 to win 2,273.

Rays at MARLINS, OVER. Willis v. Shields for 8.0, the night after the team's combined for 22. I think the bullpens get involved eventually, and make it ugly. 2,500 to win 2,336.

Indians at REDS, Indians and OVER. Jeremy Sowers probably isn't long for the rotation for Cleveland, but he's better than a 6.63 ERA, and Matt Belisle will get pureed by the Tribe hitters. The Reds bid for three in a row fails. 2,500 to win 2,049, and another 2,500 to win 2,294 on the 11 run OVER.

Sunday -- A 3-2 day, with the winners coming late, gives me a puncher's chance at $6K back. We're going all-in for Ball Number Three on...

Red Sox to beat DIAMONDACKS, with the OVER. This is Dice-K's first start against Arizona, and he strikes me as the kind of guy who does better with unfamiliarity. The Snakes start Randy Johnson, who usually gets cuffed around by the Bostonians. 10,000 to win 9,434 on the Sox, and 9,293 to win 8,081 on the 8-run OVER.

Wrap up... Sox lose and flail, killing me both ways. Bastards!

More Balls of Smoke, Please

In other words, this week's MLB picks, in our ongoing effort to secure the Dave Stewart interview and juicy NBX ad goodness.

Monday -- A's vs. White Sox, UNDER. The line seemed to assume Jon Danks was starting for the Pale Hose, when it's actually the hot Jose Contreras. He's opposed by Joe Blanton, who is also on a roll, and neither team is an offensive juggernaut. 2,500 to win 2,252 on an 8.5 run under.

Red Sox over YANKEES. Can Boston put more dirt on the coffin? Tonight is Wakefield vs. Wang, and if it goes to the bullpens, the advantage is hard with the Sox. A nice moneyline tilt gives me 2,500 to win 3,425 on Boston.

Tuesday - In the words of Mrs. Lincoln, that didn't end well. We're throwing everything into it today, in the hope that 0-3 can earn me five days off from picking games. You've been warned...

Toronto over BALTIMORE. AJ Burnett was lights out last time around, and the Orioles have scored 13 runs in their last five games. The home town team starts Daniel Cabrera, and he's due for a walkfest. 2,500 to win 2,500.

Indians over ROYALS. Fausto Carmona has been spectacular, and Odalis Perez is, well, Odalis Perez. 2,500 to win 1,613.

Twins over RANGERS. It's nearly time for Johan Santana to remind us all who he is. Kameron Loe, too. 2,000 to win 1,212.

Wednesday -- We whiffed. You didn't check either. Dave Stewart thinks we're both pussies.

Thursday -- Now down $17K to people who are actually playing, we're going to have to throw big dollars around.

PADRES over Cubs -- I don't care if his numbers are good so far this, Jason Marquis still blows. We like Chris Young to go deep and the Cubs to get swept. 2,500 to win 1,838.

BRAVES over Mets - Glavine struggles on the road and against his ex team, while John Smoltz tends to get run support against New York. 3,000 to win 2,222.

OVER in Mariners vs. D-Rays. The ERAs for the starting pitchers (Horacio Ramirez, Jae Seo) totals up to over 16. Even with these two offenses, that spells more than 10.5 runs. 3,500 to win 3,043.

Friday - A 2-1 day gets me closer to even, but a long way behind the leaders.

RANGERS over Red Sox - Brandon McCarthy tends to get run support, and he's had some success against the Bostonians. Dice K has never been to Texas before, and the moneyline is tempting me into thinking he won't like it much. 4,000 to win 6,880.

Cubs over DODGERS - As nice of a moneyline as you could hope for Ted Lilly, who has been lights out, in his first start in 3 years against the Dodgers. Derek Lowe can give up some, too. 4,000 to win 4,480.

Mariners over ROYALS. As with Lilly, now with King Felix. Gil Meche overthrows in his first home start against his old team. 5,000 to win 4,348.

Saturday - 1-2 after Lilly spits the bit in LA. As I'm down big for the week and the drywall is calling, just one bet today for big money.

Astros over DBACKS. Chris Sampson has kept things in control this year, and he's opposed by Brandon Webb, who I think is due for a clunker against Houston. This is the biggest moneyline on the board that looks like it has any doubt. 10,000 to win 14,900 on Houston.

This Week's Picks

Oh, Smoke. You didn't think we'd find this? Boom boom boom boom boom, indeed. Even money it was Rickey.

Monday

Braves over NATIONALS. This may be the cheapest moneyline you see on the Nats for a while, really. Smoltz over Bergmann, 2500 to win 1,553.

PHILLIES over Brewers. The Brew Crew got bloodied up in New York, and they've never seen the slower than slow slop of Jamie Moyer. 2,500 to win 2,155.

Tuesday - after a 1-1 day, it's time for two slight road dogs.

Tigers over RED SOX. Tim Wakefield has been unconscious this year, and Justin Verlander has been rounding into shape. I like the visitors tonight. 2,500 to win 3,000.

Angels over MARINERS. Felix Hernandez in his first start back from the DL will overthrow, and Kelvim Escobar has been lights out. With Matthews on fire and even Chone Figgins starting to show signs of a pulse, I like the Angels. 2,500 to win 2,925.

Wednesday - another 1-1 day. I was write about Felix, but Escobar was Escoblah. Back to even money.

WHITE SOX over Yankees. Contreras is at home, has a great lifetime record against his old team, and is on a role. He's also on the team with the better record. The Yanks are starting Wang, who hasn't really been himself yet. And the Yanks are favored? 2,500 to win 3,075 on Chicago.

PHILLIES over Brewers. This Brewers team is starting to show its flaws (Derrick Turnbow), and Jeff Suppan's career record against the Phillies will make it worse. Add that to the developing situation that is Cole Hamels, and I like the home town team. 2,500 to win 1,908 on the Phils.

Angels over MARINERS. John Lackey doesn't have a good history with the Mariners, but Cha Seung Baek's run support has to end sometime. 2,500 to win 1,894 on the Angels.

Thursday

A 2-1 day puts us up about a grand.

INDIANS over Minnesota. Fausto Carmona's been good to me, and the Twins are in a world of hurt right now -- even with Johan on the mound. 2,500 to win 3,100.

PHILLIES over Brewers. Not sure why the money line is against the home team on this one -- the Brewers are having a bad road trip, and they haven't seen Freddy Garcia in years. Ben Sheets is good, but he's not infallible, especially in Philly. 2,500 to win 2,950.

Friday

A 1-1 day adds a few dollars to the till. I'm down $5,200, and in fourth. Time for interleague nonsense.

OVER for Rays-Marlins. Edwin Jackson and BK Kim, with a 10.5 line, for two teams that average over 11 already. 2,500 to win 2,049.

A'S over Giants. Barry Zito comes back to Oakland and overthrows against teammates that will lay off the hook. Chad Gaudain with the bounce-back start. 2,500 to win 2,358.

Saturday

Two wins gets us to second, but $7,500 back from the lead. Time to step up the bids with some road teams.

Giants over A'S. These teams always play to .500, and Danny Haren is prone to the long ball. After 15 runs last night, the A's bats go dry against Matt Cain. 3,000 to win 3,930 on the Giants.

Royals over ROCKIES. Do I really trust Gil Meche in Colorado? More than I do Taylor Buchholz, and the Royals have 4 out of their last 5, while the Rocks have lost the same. That's enough to go for the Royals when the moneyline is more or less even. 3,000 to win 2,830.

Padres over MARINERS. The Mariners have only seen Greg Maddux once, and in that game, he struck out 11 in a 2-1 loss. Horacio Ramirez won't hold the Pods down. 3,000 to win 2,727 on San Diego.

Sunday

Oof. A bad Saturday has me rolling for a big dog today, but it's a good one.

Cardinals over TIGERS. Justin Verlander is commanding a big moneyline against Mark Thompson, but his past record against the Cards is spotty, and with the Cards offense showing signs of life for the past two days, I like the chances for an upset. 10,000 to win 18,400 on St. Louis.

Twins over BREWERS. The reeling Brew Crew tries to avoid the sweep with Claudio Vargas against Ramon Ortiz. That looks like a pick'em game to me, but the moneyline is big with Milwaukee. 2,464 to win 3,499.

(Late throw for fun - Padres over MARINERS. That one worked out for 1,500.)

Final... Oh well. If the Cards had won, we'd have had it, but they are, well, worthless. The 1-2 day put us in 9th for the week, but we'd rather swing for Smoke's balls than be an also-ran.

This Week's MLB Picks

Monday

GIANTS over Mets, UNDER (9 runs). The Mets haven't seen Barry Zito before, but Ollie Perez has been downright encouraging. Look for the Giants to win a close, low-scoring game. 2,000 to win 1,980 on the Giants, with 2,000 to win 1,802 on the under.

Tuesday

After last night's de facto push (nice defense, Mets), I'm going after a few big underdogs with light money, and a favorite with heavy.

Nats over BREWERS. The best record in the NL has to end sometime, and Dave Bush has been terrible. Jason Simontacchi has a couple of good starts in his history against the Brew Crew. 1,000 to win 1,990.

JAYS over Red Sox. Call it a hunch, but I think Josh Beckett is due for a rough time. Victor Zambrano has some talent. 1,000 to win 1,760 on the home dog.

TWINS over White Sox. Boof Bonser is starting to come aroud, and Javy Vazquez can be rough in the Dome. 2,000 to win 1,802 on the slight home favorite.

Wednesday

OK, I give, I give, the Nats will never win again. Let's just move on. 2-3 for the week, but the bigger bet winner has me trolling around even money.

Phillies over DBACKS. Don't look now, but Randy Johnson is aging faster than a high-school girl working as a pole dancer. Plus, the D-Backs have never faced Jamie Moyer before. 2,500 to win 2,273 on the Phils.

A's over ROYALS. Could Gil Meche really be a good signing for the Royals? No. Besides, Dan Haren is getting close to dominant, and the A's just own this team. 2,500 to win 2,101 on Oakland.

Thursday

Treading water and losing slowly. 3-4 for the week, so let's go deeper.

Rangers over YANKEES. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Brandon McCarthy yet, and Chien-Ming Wang is rarely dominant. 1,000 to win 2,600 on the road dog.

BRAVES over Padres, OVER. Hudson vs. Wells won't do you no favors on the money line, but sometimes you go there anyway. I like the Braves to win big here, and the Padres to score runs late. 1,500 to win 773 on the win, 1,500 to win 1,282 on an 8-run over.

White Sox over TWINS. By the numbers, Jose Contreras is worse than Carlos Silva this year, but the numbers lie; most of Jose's bad stuff comes from a disastrous opening day. Besides, no Joe Mauer takes a lot of teeth out of the Twins lineup. 2,000 to win 2,260 on the light road dogs from Chicago.

Friday

A 3-0-1 day brings me up to plus $5,200 for the week, and within shouting distance of the top spot. Let the good times roll.

Cards over PADRES. Kip Wells against Jake Peavy is making this a big moneyline for the hometown team, but Peavy's career record against the Cards is not good, and Wells has gone deep into the game 4 out of the last 5 starts against San Diego. 2,000 to win 3,700.

Angels over RANGERS. Hot off a salvaging stomp of the Yankees in New York, the Rangers fly home to face John Lackey. I think they'll leave their bats on the plane, but Vincente Padilla won't be so lucky. 2,000 to win 1,600.

Tigers over TWINS. I've made some good coin this year going against Johan Santana at home, and with the Twinkies really struggling to score runs these days, I'm willing to pull the trigger with Mike Maroth one more time. 2,000 to win 3,660.

Saturday

Another 2-1 day pushes it higher, but then NBX takes forever to put up tickets, locking me out of the early games -- and while I'm up for the week, it's not enough to be in the top spot. 4 road warrior picks for the late games...

Reds over DODGERS. Penny has been great this year, but Kyle Lohse has been solid as well, and this Dodger team just isn't scoring runs yet. 2,500 to win 4,100.

Giants over ROCKIES. From watching Barry Zito for years in Oakland, I've seen him win without the good curveball. Jeff Francis just never inspires confidence. 2,000 to win 1,739.

Cards over PADRES. Looper's been very solid, and the money line is appealing. 2,500 to win 3,225 on the Cards.

Yanks over MARINERS. I like what I've read about Yankee farmhand Matt DiSalvo, and the Mariners are starting the truly horrible Miguel Batista. 2,000 to win 1,493 on the Bombers.

Sunday

Gah. Had this all written up, and then Blogger ate my post. A 2-2 day leaves us in sriking distance, but wer'e going to have to go big. So, going quick with it...

Cubs over PHILLIES (Lilly v. Lieber - home town team hasn't seen Lilly yet). Giants over ROCKIES (Matt Cain v. Taylor Bucholz, the former is due.) Angels over RANGERS - (Evin Santana is due, and Mike Wood is a long reliever), and OAKLAND over Cleveland (Chad Gaudain over Cliff Lee).

Back To Back, Foo'

Monday

Nationals over PADRES. Jake Peavy at home is tough to go against, but John Patterson is better then he's shown, and a 13-12 team should not be getting this kind of moneyline against anyone. 1,500 to win 3,660 on today's biggest dog, the Nats.

Rangers over JAYS. Here's another .500 team throwing an ace at home to a big moneyline. This time, I like Vincente Padilla to turn around his 0-3 ways against Roy Halladay. 1,500 to win 2,775 on the Rangers.

Ed. Note: 1-1, with the Nats win pushing us up $2K. Let the profitable mediocrity swell over you.

Tuesday

A's over RED SOX. Cupcakes Blanton has a good track record against the Sox, and Big Schill hasn't felt so fresh in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Green and Gold. The moneyline sells me -- 1,500 to win 2,370.

RANGERS over Yanks. Kameron Loe has a live arm and the home field, but this is more of a vote of no confidence in Phil Hughes and the Yanks long pen. The over of 11 had me tempted as well, but it's a little too much. The Ranger bullpen gets the win. 1,500 to win 2,040 on the Rangers.

Ed Note: Up for the A's, down for the Rangers, now 2-2 and up $3K for the week. Doing well for the season by now, really.

Wednesday

Marlins over METS. Anibal Sanchez has two very good starts against the Mets on his record, and he's opposed by the always entertaining Oliver Perez. 2,000 to win 3,060 on the Fish.

A's over RED SOX. Going again with the road team, after tonight's Papelblowup. Chad Gaudin has no pedigree, but he's been terrific this year, maybe even the team's best. He's opposed by Josh Beckett, who's due for some trouble and has a 1-2 lifetime record against Oakland. 2,000 to win 3,520 on the A's.

Ed Note: Woof. 2-4, down $1K for the week.

Thursday

Mariners over RED SOX. Am I the only one to notice that Dice-K is just a guy with a 4.4 ERA? Sure, he's good, sure, they should be favored... but this moneyline is off the charts. 2,500 to win 5,000 on Horacio Ramirez and the M's.

Jays over INDIANS. Cliff Lee vs.Dustin McGowan in the first start of the year for both looks to me to be a bullpen fest / toss-up kind of game, but the moneyline doesn't reflect it. 2,500 to win 3,800 on the Jays.

GIANTS over Phillies. Both teams have been frisky lately, but I'm going to take the home favorites here, because Matt Cain is that good, and Adam Eaton is that bad. 2,500 to win 1,812 on the G-Men.

Ed. Note: Good grief. Three one-run losses drops us to 2-7 for the week. Smoke Stewart, why hast thou forsaken me?

Friday:

Nats over CUBS. The Cubs are 12-14 with a 4-9 home record, and are starting a SP that has an ERA that's 2X higher than his opponent. I know Carlos Zambrano is a name, Jason Bergmann is not, and the Nats stink... but the Cubs are not a world-beater, so this moneyline doesn't make sense to me. 2,250 to win 4,658 on the road Nats.

Mariners over YANKEES. You'd never guess, from this moneyline, that the Mariners were over .500 and starting an Asian SP (Baek) with the lower ERA. Kei Igawa is probably trying to stay in the rotation with this start, but his 7+ ERA makes me go for this moneyline. 2,250 to win 3,825 on the road Mariners.

Ed Note: The Nats fail to hold the early lead in Chicago, but the Ms win a slugfest in NY. 3-8 for the week, down $7K, $32K behind the leaders. Who knew gambling could have such heartbreak?

Saturday

Today, I'm going back to the same bad well with the Nats' John Patterson against the Cubs' Rich Hill in Chicago. Patterson beat Jake Peavy in his last start in San Diego, and Hill's 1.77 ERA is bound for some correction. 3,500 to win 6,860 on the road Nats.

After last night's 14-11 loss, how are the Yankees a prohibitive moneyline favorite today against the Mariners? Jeff Weaver vs. Chien Ming Wang, that's how -- but Wang hasn't been lights out yet, and you have to expect Weaver to throw a decent start once every 10 games, right? Well, no, but in another slugfest, I like the Mariner bully more than the Yanks' right now. 3,500 to win 8,925 on the road Ms.

Sunday: Woof, woof, woof. 3-10 for the week, and looking foward to retiring Mr. T. I'm pissing away the last of my bankroll with the White Sox on the road against the Angels, just because I liek Buehrle this year and don't believe in Shrek Colon. You are encouraged to go the other way, of course. 1.105 to win 1,400.

10-9 Never Tasted So Good

Having won over $24,000 in fake bucks this week, and thrown the rest of the Sports Blog World to the curb (well, OK, the other dozen people picking), it's time for y'all to give me some love. Or lighters. Or just sing along.

And on the off chance that Dave Stewart reads this, that interview at the end of the year for the contest winner? Let's just book it now, Smoke. You know you want it.

I'd like to thank the sportsbook public for making the reeling Yankees a ridiculous money line favorite today. Today, I feel luckier than Lou Gehrig.

No time for jibber jabber

Indians over TWINS. Sowers is better than he's let on, Carlos Silva is worse, and the money line on this looks haywire to me. 2,500 to win 5,050.

Yanks over D-RAYS. The D-Rays exist to provide the Yanks with pick-me-up wins after April troubles. 2,500 to win 1,938.

Season to date: Fool
Money to date: Bigger Fool

Update... 1-1 with a $2,500 payoff from the Tribe. Let's continue to roll the dog dice.

Nats over PHILLIES. The Nats are 6-13. The Phils are 7-11. Does Jamie Moyer really sound like someone who should be getting 2-1 odds at home? Nah, I didn't think so either. 2,500 to win 4,675 in a game that will go the bullpens.

Indians over TWINS. Go against Johan at home, twice in a week? Yup, because It's Still April. Fausto Carmona has his moments, and Johan is only 2-1 with 2 NDs against the Tribe in his last five starts. 5,000 to win 10,150 on the Tribe, because NBX double-booked my bet. Good thing this isn't Real Money...

Update: The Twins loss is my gain, but NBX may have boned my Monday win. Feel The Smoke!
Tomorrow... Scott Olsen and the Fish, both better than they've shown, on the road against the rebounding Tim Hudson and the Braves. Huddy's going to be fine this year, but he's due for some weakness. and the money line is big. 2,500 to win 3,800 on the Marlins.

Contrarianism continues with the over in Reds-Cards, where I don't believe in Looper and Arroyo enough to pass on an 8-run cover. 2,500 to win 2,600 on fireworks.

Thursday... Let's try Jae Seo (gack!) and the D-Rays in Anaheim against Shrek Colon. The moneyline is huge. the D-Rays are feeling frisky after smacking the Yanks around, and Bartubbo might not be so fresh on his second start of the year. 2,500 to win 4,575.

Giants on the road at Dodgers, Ortiz v. Penny. OK, Russ Ortiz is horrible, but this Dodger team hasn't hit at all like this moneyline, and Brad Penny's bound for a clunker. 2,500 to win 4,500.

Friday update... we're 4-4 and up 4,500 from riding dogs to .500. Two more... Brewers over ASTROS, 2,500 to win 3,700. Roy Oswalt is a beast, but Chris Capuano isn't chopped liver, and the Brew Crew has looked solid this year. Am I thrilled to put down 2,500 on Eric Milton and the Reds, on the road in Pittsburgh? When the payoff is 3,625, I am. Ian Snell is off to a hot start, but he's bound to remember that he's Ian Snell soon.

Saturday update... 5-5 and up 9,650 for the week (nearing even for the year), but $5K behind the chalk-running SportsColumn. We're going with the road Twins in Detroit, where Carlos Silva has been good to me before, against Justin Verlander. 2,500 to win 3,825. (Last night's big 4-spot in the 8th off Zumaya for the win also has me thinking good thoughts here.) I'm also going with the D-Rays in Oakland, with Casey Fossum against Dan Haren. The moneyline is bigger than it should be for the home team, who aren't scoring runs... and Haren's due for some longball trouble against the suddenly frisky D-Rays, 2,500 to win 4,350.

Sunday update... 6-6 ad up 11K for the week, but still down, so it's another all-in Sunday. We start in New York, where Tavarez and the Sox have an unconscionable money line against a Yankee team that isn't all better from one win. 8.475 to win 14,747 on the road team. Next, I like Fausto Carmona to keep up the hot streak in Baltimore (2,500 to win 1.603), Brandon McCarthy to pick it up or the Rangers in Toronto (2,500 to win 3,100), Kyle Davies to keep the Rocks down in Colorado (2,500 wo win 2,875), Dallas Braden and a patient A's team to wait out Scott Kazmir in Oakland (2,500 to win 2.750), Derek Lowe and the Dodgers to continue to take advantage of David Wells with the Padres (2,500 to win 2,525), and Randy Johnson to expose Matt Morris and the Giants in Arizona (2,500 to win 1,953). Wish me luck.

With speed

Twins-ROYALS over. Sid Ponson and Odalis Perez? Come on, 10-spot. 3,000 to win 3,240 on the 10.5 line.

Dbacks-GIANTS, take the Snakes. It's the second go-around for Russ Ortiz in SF, and he's facing the sneaky-good Doug Davis. This is one sequel that should never have been green-lit, 3,000 to win 3,180 on the Snakes.

Braves-METS, taking the Braves. Tim Hudson looks like he's back to his old tricks, and I don't think Mike Pelfrey is ready for prime time yet. 3,000 to win 2,752 on the Braves.

* * * * *

With two winners already in the bank tonight, why break the mojo with a fresh post? Here's Saturday's action.

Phils over REDS. Cole Hamels vs. Eric Milton is about as good of a road matchup as the Phils can hope for right now, and they're due for a laugher after tonight's heartbreak.

GIANTS over DBacks. Barry Zito's a streak pitcher, and the last outing was masterful at altitude in Colorado. Things won't go as well for Edgar Gonzalez, whose 31 HRs allowed in 126 career innings makes him a big target for the Bay Dunk Tank.

ANGELS over Mariners. Bartolo Colon's first start of the year has the good fortune to come against Horacio Ramirez, who is probably the worst Ramirez in MLB right now.

Season to date: 15-17-1, down $1,500, making a move, dammit (3rd in this week's rankings).

Once more with feeling...

To have any shot at the top spot this week, I need something on the order of a $30K swing. So I'm going to throw my momentum and bankroll on the biggest moneyline underdogs of the day, which are the Yanks in Boston facing Matsuzaka and a sweep, the Snakes in San Fran facing hot starting Matt Cain, and the ChiSox with tatooed love boy John Garland facing filthy Justin Verlander. It'll be a Festivus miracle, eight months early.

Season to date: 17-17-1, with one game pending, up $4K

Three (!) one-run losses on Sunday later.... 18-20-1, down $20K (ah, the perils of the Big Bet)