Five Takeaways From MLB Week One

1) The Dodgers are loaded. When your #7 hitter is a borderline All-Star outfielder (Matt Kemp), that speaks to two points. First, that your manager should have his head examined; Joe Torre's love of Orlando Hudson in the #2 slot seems a little silly to me. Second, that you've got just a sick offense. But we knew that about the Dodge Show as soon as Man Ram signed, seeing how the NL is still where AL stars go to stud. What we didn't know is that the rest of the team was going to have good moments, too.

Jonathan Broxton looks like, well, one of the few reliable closers in the National League. Chad Billingsley looks good to go after off-season surgery and a playoff meltdown. Clayton Kershaw might not be quite ready to lock down your roto championship with occasional control issues, but in the real world, he's just intimidating. Randy Wolf seems like a tolerable filler. They got fairly good starts out of rookies Eric Stults and James MacDonald, which is to say, they got the very real hope that rotation fill-ins won't be a major roadblock. I believe in the set-up men. And this is with opening day starter Hiroki Kuroda hitting the disabled list for what shouldn't be very long.

Finally there's also this: with an upcoming financial tsunami hitting MLB, the Dodgers should be able to clean up in mid-season refueling, especially since the farm system looks like it still has assets. Right now, LA looks like a mid 90 win team to me in a weak division; add a top-line starter, and I'm seeing a team that clinches its division by mid-September.

2) Cleveland is in trouble. In the Tribe's first week, Travis Hafner actually hit like a baseball player. Kerry Wood didn't get hurt, and neither did Carl Pavano. Victor Martinez slugged .600 in his comeback year after the 2008 nightmare. No one blew a save. They played Texas and Toronto, which is to say, they played two teams that shouldn't add up to 160 wins between them.

And they went 1-5, with staff ace Cliff Lee getting lit up for a 9.90 ERA in the bargain. The rest of the rotation wasn't much better, with Anthony Reyes "leading" things (6.00 ERA), Scott Lewis not fooling anyone (8.31 ERA), Fausto Carmoba continuing to not look like 2007 (10.80 ERA) and Pavano really stinking up the joint (81.00 ERA).

Now, they will get better than that in the long run, simply because no rotation is ever that bad, and Lee made too big of a leap in 2008 with his control to completely revert to a non-MLB pitcher. But it's cold, and it's April, when the pitchers are supposed to be ahead of the hitters and the relievers are fresh enough to throw tolerable long innings. If this is what the rotation is doing now, Tribe Fan is not looking forward to the dog days.

3) You might start believing in the Florida Marlins. The team with the best record in MLB for the first week of the year (at 5-1 with Atlanta) may not continue to get All-Star production from new third baseman Emilio Bonifacio, but they will get quality starting pitching all year, and this Hanley Ramirez fellow is pretty good, too. Even the bullpen looks better than advertised, with old Oakland stalwart Kiko Calero looking hale and healthy, and Matt Lindstrom shaking off his scary WBC injury. (That's a joke, folks: the WBC had no scary injuries, mostly because everyone was scared poo-less by the spectre of a WBC injury.) The division is still murderous, and the Fish have no pockets to speak of, but when Josh Johnson is just another arm in your rotation, you are freaking loaded.

4) San Diego is a mirage. The division leader at 5-2 started the season at home against weak teams (and yes, San Francisco still counts as one), with no breakout offensive players that I'm buying from last year's punchless wonders. Heath Bell certainly looks fine at the end of games, and Chris Young and Jake Peavy are more than acceptable, especially at Petco, but what you have with the Padres is basically a pitching park version of the historic Rockies franchise -- a team that is singularly incapable of winning enough games on the road to be a factor in any race. They are still going to be under .500 well in advance of a mid-season sell-off, and Peavy is still on his last go-around in SOCal.

5) The Yankees still aren't built for October. In the first week of the year, Robinson Cano has shed his career-long pattern of stinking it up in April. Joba Chamberlain didn't get hurt. Neither did Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui, and at this point in their careers, that's news. Jorge Posada looked like the old-time Jorge Posada, which is a huge difference over the 2008 model, and not to be expected from a mid-30s catcher with a lot of wear and tear. (Remember, as well, that Posada has an extra year or more on the books from all of the post-season play.) The bullpen has been, more or less, what it always is.

And when they lose a game, as they did yesterday to the Royals, it all comes back with a vengeance. Xavier Nady may not be mortally terrified of the wall the way that Bobby Abreu was, but that doesn't mean he's actually, you know, good defensively. Brett Gardiner in center field might have wheels, but man alive, he's got an arm like a wet Johnny Damon; when the Yanks start both of them, Jeter's going to need to run halfway to the warning track to take the cut-off throw. Jeter, of course, hasn't been a good defensive shortstop for so long that even Yankee Fan is starting to concede the point. Cody Ransom might be the worst player in MLB right now with a starting job, which just goes to show how thin the organization is, and has been for years, behind the brittle older stars.

The rotation looks much improved, and the offense, especially if Cano and Posada's first week can be believed, looks dramatically better than last year's quiet Achilles heel. They'll be in it all year, especially if Boston or Tampa suffer injuries (especially the former; Tampa still looks to me to be the pick of baseball's best division).

But tell me, Yankee Fan -- which of your teams was good in October? Right, the ones with a killer set-up man that caught the ball at every position, with useful spare parts on the bench. Now, does that describe this team... or the 2005-2007 one-and-done teams?

A Small Note To The Lemur

Manny Ramirez is 37 years old.

He's gone to spring training every year since 1993.

It is not particularly newsworthy when he goes this year, either.

NLCS Thoughts

My civic duties (there was a debate I had to wound myself with) prevented this from getting my full attention, but here's the quick and dirty...

> Who's the bigger Dodger goat -- Raffy Furcal, whose two-error inning deepened the malaise? Russell Martin, who hit .118 behind Manny? Or -- and this is my choice -- Chad Billingsley, who blew up in two of the five games, had an 18.00 ERA, and did everything short of burn his jersey on the mound to make the case that his promising career might not be, well, so very promising?

> ManRam's final NLCS numbers: .538, 2 homers, 7 RBIs, and $180 million over 6 years. Get out your checkbooks, Yankees. (Oh, and by the way, he's going to kill his next team by being himself in 2 to 3 years. Enjoy him early, Next Team...)

> Cole Hamels was nails again, with clutch strikeouts that might not have been strikes, because, well, when you just have that much command, you get the calls. Tonight, you saw Hamels enter The Pantheon; there aren't five pitchers in *either* league you'd rather have than him right now. Very, very impressive.

> For years, Philly Fan has kind of hated Charlie Manuel. The town doesn't deal with Old Yokel voices very well, and the franchise has been in 85 to 90 win limbo for so long, with the town in a 25-year championship drought that's unmatched by any other 4-team town, so you can see the hate.

Tonight, after outmanaging Joe Torre (Dodger fan is still bent that Derek Lowe got the hook early in the last game) and having to leave his team to go bury his mother, Manuel gets the grace card to end all grace cards. So long as he doesn't blow the Series, he's got -- and deserves -- a mighty long grace period. Even for Philly.

> He ended the series with a 0.00 ERA, but every time Chan Ho Pliss showed up on the mound, I'm sure every Phillies fan felt a whole lot better about life.

> I'm not really a Phillies fan. But tonight felt good, and not just because Derek "Crotch Grab" Lowe, Joe Torre and ManRam all get to watch the Series at home is nice. A parade in Philly, and perhaps a chance at losing the perpetual pessimism, would be even better.

MLB Playoff Picks: Phillies-Dodgers and Red Sox-Rays

One of the puff pieces that happened in advance of the NLCS this week spoke to the Useless Dodger Veteran Bench (aka Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent and Juan Pierre) that all have Playoff Experience, but are also mostly ballast for this team. You will be relieved, I am sure, to find out that they are all Team Players who want to play, but remain totally unselfish and professional and so very, very tired...

On the contrary, I'd argue that it took Joe Torre far too long, and that he got fortunate with injuries, to learn that these guys really weren't going to be much use for him in the act of winning ballgames. Pierre's offense has been terrible for years. Jones has seemingly hit a complete wall in terms of no longer being someone who belongs in MLB -- seriously, only his contract is keeping him in the majors right now.

Kent can still hit -- hell, I suspect you'll be able to say that of the man the week that they bury him -- but he can't stay healthy, and he's got about as much right to play second base as I do. (I actually have better range, but being still afraid of baseballs hit with startling speed by grown men, I'm pretty sure that he'd be more effective. Anyway.) Nomar is a reasonable utility fill-in these days, provided you aren't expecting much pop at the plate.

On an MLB Minus team, these contracts would be absolutely crippling, and the Dodgers would have resembled the Bonds-less Giants of a few years back. Instead, here they are, having taken out the doomed Cubs and more or less an even-money bet to go to the Series. All because Manny Ramirez puled his way out of Boston, carrying them to a bad division win, and the luck of the draw got them the team that never, ever wins. Right?

Well, no, not quite. What happened was that they finally played the people that they should have been playing all along. James Loney is a good left-handed hitter and reasonable defender at first, and the only thing that keeps more people from knowing this is that his home park deflates offense. Matt Kemp in center is a stone-cold stud, a man who anyone could tell just by looking at him should never have to want for playing time. I suspect he could be one of the 20 best players in baseball within two years. Andre Ethier in right just doesn't make a whole lot of outs, does everything well, and has upped the ante since the Manny trade by, well, hitting like Manny's little brother. Blake Dewitt at second grinds like a prototype Dustin Pedroia and covers ground.

Combine them all with the return to health of Rafael Furcal (aka, the single non-Manny everyday playing vet that might be worth his contract), and hey presto... it's a good offense. If Russell Martin is fresh enough to hit (they wear him out and he fades every second half), it's actually a very good offense.

Pitching wise, they are also fine, though not as good as the park makes them out to be. Derek Lowe has carried them recently and has an exceptional post-season record. Chad Billingsley has been aces for a while now, and will be cited as such any day now. Hiroki Kuroda isn't great, but he doesn't walk people and keeps the ball in the park; you could do a lot worse from a #3 starter (and when Brad Penny is healthy, you do very well with him at #4). Greg Maddux is the Kuroda story with 350 more MLB wins. The bbullpen has tons of plus arms that are generally reliable.

Oh, and Manny Ramirez is the best hitter in baseball right now. That helps, too.

So why am I picking the Phils to win?

Well, the home field helps a lot here. So does the general feeling that when push comes to shove, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are just better than Lowe and Billingsley. The back end of the Phillies rotation - Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton -- seems more useful to me, to the point where I think the Phils get better starting pitching in every game.

As for the bullpen, the slight hiccup in Game Two notwithstanding, I like Brad Lidge a little more than Takashi Saito, and Jonathan Broxton has utterly filthy stuff, but just seems like a guy who's going to issue a key walk or two. The Dodgers have better depth for an extra inning game, but for the simple act of closing a game in regulation, I think the Phillies have the edge.

I also think the Phillies can win in LA more easily than the Dodgers can win in Philly. I also think that (deep breath) Charlie Manuel has seen enough of Manny Ramirez over the years to know how to limit the damage that Ramirez does, whereas the Dodgers will fear no Phillies hitter -- and wind up paying the price.

Finally, there's this. The way to shut the Phillies down cold is to have quality left-handed pitching. And all of the Dodger starters are right-handed.

Phillies in 6.

Well, Red Sox Fan, welcome to the Hated Favorite status that we all knew you'd get to, or have been arguing you were for years. Here's the plucky and lovable Rays, a bunch of kids -- kids, you bastards!

If you beat them, you'll face one of the most tortured fan bases in the country with the Phillies, or the lovable man-child that you refused to sign to an extension, just because he was a minority, and hated so much that you had to ship him out of town for a nondescript white guy, even while *still* paying his salary.

How does it feel to be the New Yankees, even down to the noxious traveling fan base that ensures that no matter how nice and easy-going your players are, you'll always be known as the opponent of every MLB fan's second favorite team? (In that they root for theirs first, than your opponent.)

But first things first, which is how this strange little series will play out. Tampa has the better rotation and everyday players (especially with Mike Lowell out), while Boston has the better bullpen and home field advantage. Seriously, in all seven games of this series, Boston will be playing in front of at least a 50% fan base.

The teams Just Don't Like Each Other, and Boston's got a ton of post-season experience. Also, while Tampa's starters are good, they aren't lockdown great (even Scott Kazmir can be worked into high pitch counts that prevent him from going deep). Finally, Tampa's hitters will grip the bat too tight in their One Chance To Get To The World Series (seriously, even though they are young and affordable, everyone knows this can't last -- see Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland and every other non-BOS-NYY-LAA AL team of the last decade).

So, I'm just going to pick what will happen, rather than what I want. That way, no matter what happens, I'm feeling like a winner. (Well, at least more than usual.)

Red Sox in 6.

Which, of course, gives us Boston cock-blocking another Philadelphia sports championship, while my football-only friends tell me that they really hate Washington, Dallas and New York instead. Please, my friends, can't we all come together in our hate for Boston teams and her fans? The rest of the nation is already there. Join in!

Ain't No Stink Job Like A Cub Stink Job

I couldn't stay up late enough to see the final body count, but when I finally gave up on the NLDS tonight, the series score was Dodgers 17, Cubs 2.

If you're in the Chicago area and want to meet The Truth, just look for the guy with the biggest shit-eating grin you ever did see...

Epic Drop: Top 10 Consolations For Heartbroken Boston Fans

I'm assuming there are some, right?

Apocalypse Manny

Let's see... the Sox trade an aging RH OF with a .926 OPS and a bad attitude for a 30-year-old RH OF with an .894 OPS. (Given that Fenway's more of a hitter's park, you could make the argument that Boston just got better in every aspect, actually.)

Also, to make sure it happened, Boston had to pick up $7 million of the contract, because actual baseball evaluators think Jason Bay is (shh!) better. Seeing how he's not, you know, an idiotic distraction.

But, well, it's Boston. Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth commence!

Paul D Dangerously

Continuing today's theme of notable oddities from people associated with the Oakland A's, this small note from my Yardbarker newsletter... ex-Dodgers GM and former A's front office / "Moneyball" wunderkind Paul DePodesta is now blogging. You can see it for yourself right here, though I have to admit, it's pretty sparse at present.

Paul, as you're new to blogging, let me give you a few pointers.

1) Images. It's the Web, baby! Reading is for old people. Get with the Google Image Search program and start looking for poon if you want the clicks. Special tip: try learning some new words on Urban Dictionary, then search for images related to those. Boom goes the instant traffic dynamite!

2) Cursing. It's the Web, baby! Restraint is for old people. If you aren't prepared to call the LA press all of those names you've just learned from Urban Dictionary, just encourage your commenters to do it for you. We're good at that sort of thing, especially if you allow us to be anonymous.

3) Posts. We don't care that you have a job. You need to put up some half-assed something or other on a near daily basis to keep us coming back. May I suggest some Top 10 lists?

Update -- forget I said anything. Paul's already bringing the goods with this recommendation.

Come for the baseball, stay for the beatdown

This is from Red Sox Monster courtesy of Deadspin, and it's from that Red Sox-Dodger game tht atracted 100K people for an exhibition game. Here we go...



A couple of points here.

1) Since when in this country did we brawl over spring training games between teams with no rivalry?

2) Independent of the merits and moments in this fracas, is Red Sox Fan actually now better understood as a soccer hooligan?

3) What, exactly, compels people to applaud acts of amateur violence? Seriously, every time there's a fight in public, people boo when the security guys come to break it up, and applaud the combatants as they are being led away. If you're going that far, why not also tip, so they'll have enough money for bail in the drunk tank?

Actual MLB Overview

Every once in a while, we have to throw some actual analysis your way, just to make sure you're bored. Dig in, cranks!

> Slowly but surely, the Dodgers have risen to first in their division, and they're now playing .600 level baseball. Between LA, San Diego and Arizona, the West has three teams flirting with actual competency, though the Snakes are an incredibly streaky lot. The Dodgers' rise is directly correlated to when Raffy Fural actually started to hit.

> The NL Central is about a week away from a race. With the Brew Crew down to six games above .500, they are looking ripe for any team that can make a run. The most amazing part is that the Cubs are in third, 6.5 out... or roughly half of the gap for the Yankees in the AL East.

> Very quietly, because everything in the AL that isn't Boston or New York is very quiet, the Angels are up 5.5 games in the West and are starting to roll. I didn't like the Gary Matthews Jr. signing in the off-season, and I still don't like it -- but he's hitting now, and their bully is as good as always.

> Cleveland is the talk of the Central, with an offense that's turning the opposition into mulch. The bully is still a concern, but if Fausto Carmona continues to give them found money... well, that's not going to happen, but they can dream. (Me too, as I've got him on my roto team.)

> With the best record in the NL, the lowest runs against, and an awakening Carlos Delgado, the Mets are looking very good. But they're still only four games up despite getting great starts from Perez and Maine, and nobody is really taking the next step on offense. Part of this may just be Shea, but there's a surprising lack of power here, too.

Of course, the Mets could go on a ten-game winning streak and still not get much notice, since the media is all over the Nero Yankees Deathwatch. Good baseball teams come and go, but the most expensive roster in the game being 7 games under .500? That's special.

> Oh, and a big shout out (HEY!) to FTT Favorite Mark Ellis (we actually own an A's shirt with his name on the back, in the hopes that someone will think our last name is Ellis). While the world slept, he hit for the cycle in an 11-inning win over Boston that also included Eric Chavez's very first walk-off home run ever. Take that, people who bash Chavez for a spotty post-season hitting record! (You're still right, of course.)

What We Think We Know About MLB

> The Yankees are a seriously flawed, 85-win club that will need an awful lot of help (read: AL Central teams playing each other to .500) to be in the wild-card hunt. It’s not just the pitching – it’s also the relievers, and Cano, and Abreu, and Giambi – and no one wants to say this, but they miss Sheffield’s edge, too. (Yankee fans, this is your cue to tell us all that they need guys like Paulie O’Neill, Bernie Williams and Scott Brosius back in the comments, because it’s all about *heart*. That never gets old.)

> The Brewers are not for real, but no one else in the NL Central is, either. (We’d call it Comedy Central, but no one in the division, not even the sleepwalking Cardinals, deserves to be associated with “Mind of Mencia”.)

> The Mets are the best team in the NL – and Oliver Perez and John Maine are the biggest reasons why. But they aren’t untouchable, because Perez can lose it again at any time, and Carlos Delgado suddenly looks older than Julio Franco.

> If Raffy Furcal has the same year he did last year – terrible early, one of the best lead-off men in the league later – the Dodgers will be fine. But someone needs to check Vin Scully’s meds, because that call of Adam Wainwright being Adam Wainwrong last week… well, Carlos Mencia just threw that joke back as being too small.

> Ozzie Guillen needs – nay, demands – his own camera crew trailing him at all times. Why he hasn’t joined AJ Pierzynski in putting on the wrestling tights (we’re seeing Oz as the cigar-chomping Castro-esque heel manager), we’ll never know.

> When Barry Bonds breaks Aaron’s record, there will be three spontaneously occurring sports stories that push it off the front pages, all of which are currently on file with the media. Contenders include a current NBA or NFL player coming out of the closet, the announcement of a franchise move to Las Vegas, and video of Michael Vick feeding kittens to pit bulls. (Also, both Vick and the dog will be smoking blunts.)

> Mike Piazza is not enjoying the Wally Pipp jokes, and was faking it when he laughed the first time.

> If you are ever going to manage to trade for Johan Santana in your fantasy league, now is the time. I’ll give you Ted Lilly and Chone Figgins for him.

> Joe Torre turned off his cell phone two weeks ago, and "lost" that back-up Blackberry, too.

> We are only six weeks away from the All Star Home Run Derby. Chris Berman is already reviewing tapes of previous years, to see how he can fit in more “Back Back Back” calls. (Hint: Start during the pitching coach’s wind-up.)