The 2009 MLB Season Predictions

In the midst of all that fantasy stuff last week, I forgot to actually take care of the real-world stuff. And while it's usually easier to predict the standings than the individual performances, this year, that's quite different. Why? Well, the same reason as every other in MLB: drugs.

For the past 10 years or more, baseball has managed to play increasingly older talent, as part of its Faustian bargain with the needle. Older guys, given the same or better hand speed and injury recovery time that young guys had, along with the enhanced experience, were just able to keep going into their mid to late 30s and beyond.

But now that the testing seems to actually be effective, and more importantly, MLB looks to cut every corner as part of their overwhelming economic fear, you're going to see the same old-school turnover of older players that was in place for most of the last century. There's also, of course, the possibility that the number twirlers have made some inroads into management, and the concept of Value Over Replacement Player has rid some folks of Teh Fear of giving a young guy a chance in a non-crucial role.

Finally, there's also this: MLB is a copycat league, and the current fad is for defense -- which is, for the most part, just not something that old guys do as well, and certainly not as cheaply. When a team dramatically improves its defense in a year, then goes to the World Series despite having a payroll that's a third or less than its rivals, it gets noticed. (That would have been your Tampa Bay Rays, of course.) When the team that beats them has three-fourths of the starting infield in contention for a Gold Glove, and the outfield composed of plus defenders, provided they weren't named Pat Burrell... well, that also gets noticed.

Suddenly, the Tigers want Adam Everett's utterly non-existent bat to take over shortstop. The Rangers need to move Michael Young to third and call up rookie Elvis Andrus, not because they think Andrus is ready to carry the position at age 20 with his bat, but because by doing this, they better themselves on the entire side of the infield, with Hank Blalock and Chris Davis relegated to DH and first base, respectively. And every team but the dramatically stupid Washington Nationals avoided Adam Dunn, almost as much as he avoids fielding baseballs.

So the rules have changed. It's no longer a case of just knowing who's got the pitchers and hitters; it's now a matter of knowing who is going to age well and who is going to age badly, and who has a farm systems that can restock faster. Where everyone used to be trying to play the Yankees' game, now everyone is more or less laughing at the Yankees. (Who might still win since, well, dominant pitching can overwhelm poor defense, and they did upgrade defensively at first base and in the outfield. Too bad shortstop is still a mess. Just don't tell them; they get mad when you point that out.)

MLB is becoming, in short, more like the NFL, where fast team turnarounds are common and championships feel almost random, because by the time that a team breaks through, it's already most likely to be on the decline. Feel free to add in the warning noises about crazy people and sports betting here.

So, with that rousing call to action under our belts, here are my picks for the 2009 season. I promise that they will be as accurate as the 2008 MLB preview, when the Tigers won the Series over the Diamondbacks. Wait, that didn't happen? Well, then why the hell are you reading this? Right, because you're killing time at work. I understand.

NL East - Marlins (I know, shocking!)

NL Central - Cardinals

NL West - Dodgers

NL Wildcard - Cubs

NL Winner - Cardinals

AL East - Rays

AL Central - Indians

AL West - Angels

AL Wildcard - Red Sox

AL Winner - Red Sox

WS Winner - Cardinals

AL MVP - Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Matt Garza

NL Cy Young - Ricky Nolasco

AL Comeback Player of the Year -- Victor Martinez

NL Comeback Player of the Year -- Chris Carpenter

NL Rookie of the Year - Jason Motte

AL Rookie of the Year - Matt Wieters

We know return you to the World Series defense by your Detroit... um, Philadelphia Phillies. (That's just for Mets Fan.)