The bonus link today comes from me messing up the posting date on my 205 drop, probably as a side effect of my growing gambling addiction. (I keed, I keed -- it's a very persistent gambling addiction, rather than a growing one.)
Anyway, go see where you stack up on the list. I'd put even money on 6 or higher.
In this week's issue of the New Yorker, professional provocateur Malcolm Gladwell talks about the David vs. Goliath dynamic, and how the underdog wins more often than not... which is to fight a different battle. (David broke ranks and used artillery; the Philistines stayed in classic battle formation.) He also goes into a long examination of an unheralded girls' basketball team from Redwood City, CA that used the full-court press every game and wound up going to the national championships, despite not being very good at anything but the full-court press. Relentless effort beats superior talent, because in the words of the late great Fred Shero, relentless effort is a talent.
In between lots of sniffing about how the outsider perspective is better, and that many teams should press (highly debatable, but besides the point here) rather than lose while fighting Goliath's battle, Gladwell hits on a central truth: to win using the David tactics is to consider options that are socially horrifying to the status quo. If you are used to a half-court basketball game with set plays, head to head defensive matchups, visible coaching stratagems and all of the other conventional bells and whistles, 48 minutes of trapping is about as appealing as a stick in the eye. It's ragged, without flow and prone to big runs in either direction, leading to a drama-free conclusion. If both teams press and run and do it well, it can be great, but most of the time, the styles won't match, and you get a mess. The same goes for any court sport (hockey, soccer, tennis, and for all I know, lacrosse and rugby).
And this is a key point: court sports have a higher standard to meet than games driven by individual actors (baseball, boxing, golf) or rare events (football). Listen to the Bad Tooth's podcast following the Celtics winning Game 7 against the Bulls (ok, actually, don't), and you can hear the palpable disappointment that the last game also wasn't close and a classic. That's not just a ridiculously spoiled fan's perspective; that's what someone who is watching pro hoop even if he doesn't have a rooting interest in the laundry feels. It's also why football and baseball fan thinks that hoop fan is something of a snob and/or ridiculous. In those sports, it's enough -- hell, much more than enough -- if your laundry wins. In court sports, the laundry has to win in a way that's easy on the eyes.
Socially horrifying shows up in football and baseball too, of course. In football you have the run and shoot or spread offense, the Wildcat formation, a million different ways to try to recover an onside kick and so on, and so on. In baseball, you have the Three True Outcome sabermetric softball players and the pitch count injury worriers, respectively. But the games are too closed for even radical innovations to have that much impact, and there is no socially horrifying way to play the game, really; you just can't get that far away from the median to reach that level. Though Lord knows, Andy Reid does try.
Anyway, something to keep in mind the next time your favorite team is going down to defeat against a heavily favored team, Are they prepared to take socially horrifying actions -- say, a blow to the head that prevents a game-tying layup, or a standard-setting elbow that prompts referee overreactions that favor the less physical team... or performance enhancing substance use? And if they aren't, are you OK with them really not doing everything they can to win the game?
Last night in Philly, the defending champions lost to the restocked Braves, as Derek Lowe was sharp and Brett Myers continued his unfortunate first-inning home run pattern by giving up three shots that were so vicious, they might have been directed at his spouse. (It's funny because it refers to actual real life abuse!)
These things happen, even on national television and on a night that was so nice, it hardly seemed possible that it was early April, and I've got no further point about that. But let's look at the ninth inning, where Bobby Cox brought in Mike Gonzales to protect a 4-run lead.
- E. Bruntlett doubled to deep left
- J. Rollins flied out to deep right, E. Bruntlett to third
- J. Werth singled to left, E. Bruntlett scored
- C. Utley walked, J. Werth to second
At this point, three out of four men have reached base, about as good a start to an inning as you could hope for, especially when Eric Bruntlett and his career .315 OBA leads off with a double.
But then, well, this happens.
- R. Howard struck out looking
- R. Ibanez struck out swinging
Because, well, Ryan Howard has a career .314 OBA against left handers (compared to .412 against right-handers) and strikes out (gulp) over 40% of the time he sees them. Ibanez has a .323 OBA, but at least puts the ball in play, albeit without power (.734 OPS to .849 for right handers). And that's your ball game.
On Saturday in an exhibition game, the Rays beat the Phillies when a right-handed power hitting outfielder, some guy by the name of Pat Burrell, went yard. Mr. Burrell, who oddly enough seems to have a highly involved history of playing for the Phillies, has a career OPS of .950 against left-handers, and really would have been a better fit in the lineup last night, rather than have, well, three lefties in a row.
Perhaps new Phillies GM Ruben Amaro can give manager Charlie Manuel another right-handed bat to help balance this situation. Because, well, it really looks like in the current lineup, you'd have to be a complete idiot to not throw every lefty you have against the Fightin's. Especially in the late innings. I mean, I'm just the guy who writes for a remarkably unpopular sports blog, and I can see how really stupid it is to have that much of a platoon shift...
Yesterday night in my home game, I was loving my home poker game, which is a pretty common thing for me, win or lose. I wound up wining the tournament, doing well in the cash game, and feeling good about my game for the first time in months.
Tonight at another game hosted by one of my regulars, I donkeyed out of the tournament with speed and was glad to do so. And I think I've learned something important in the bargain.
Simply, this: I don't enjoy poker so much that I want to play it with assholes.
One point to make before I go further on this: my opinion of who you are as a person is independent of whether I'm losing my chips to you, or how you play the game. Raise pre-flop, call every bet, etc., etc. -- that's all just poker to me.
But when you narrate every hand, scream when you win, insult folks who lose hands when they get caught in bluffs, and in general, make me want out, despite the fact that I knew I should grind through it... well, you, sir, are an asshole, and life is too short, really.
I quickly found myself overbetting, thinking about UNC-Villanova (and no, I hadn't watched a moment of the tournament up to now), and wondering if I could get home fast enough to put my kids to bed.
And so I did, forgoing the cash game that usually goes into the wee small hours of the morning, and denying the individual in question of any chance at any significant amount of my money, given that the tournament is a lot cheaper to play than the cash game. I won't be back, at least not until I'm a lot older, and a lot better at staying in my shoes against people like that.
And one last point about this... is the effectiveness of this tactic (because, well, given how many top poker players seem to be this way, it has to work) the reason why so much of the growth in the game has come online?
In the midst of all that fantasy stuff last week, I forgot to actually take care of the real-world stuff. And while it's usually easier to predict the standings than the individual performances, this year, that's quite different. Why? Well, the same reason as every other in MLB: drugs.
For the past 10 years or more, baseball has managed to play increasingly older talent, as part of its Faustian bargain with the needle. Older guys, given the same or better hand speed and injury recovery time that young guys had, along with the enhanced experience, were just able to keep going into their mid to late 30s and beyond.
But now that the testing seems to actually be effective, and more importantly, MLB looks to cut every corner as part of their overwhelming economic fear, you're going to see the same old-school turnover of older players that was in place for most of the last century. There's also, of course, the possibility that the number twirlers have made some inroads into management, and the concept of Value Over Replacement Player has rid some folks of Teh Fear of giving a young guy a chance in a non-crucial role.
Finally, there's also this: MLB is a copycat league, and the current fad is for defense -- which is, for the most part, just not something that old guys do as well, and certainly not as cheaply. When a team dramatically improves its defense in a year, then goes to the World Series despite having a payroll that's a third or less than its rivals, it gets noticed. (That would have been your Tampa Bay Rays, of course.) When the team that beats them has three-fourths of the starting infield in contention for a Gold Glove, and the outfield composed of plus defenders, provided they weren't named Pat Burrell... well, that also gets noticed.
Suddenly, the Tigers want Adam Everett's utterly non-existent bat to take over shortstop. The Rangers need to move Michael Young to third and call up rookie Elvis Andrus, not because they think Andrus is ready to carry the position at age 20 with his bat, but because by doing this, they better themselves on the entire side of the infield, with Hank Blalock and Chris Davis relegated to DH and first base, respectively. And every team but the dramatically stupid Washington Nationals avoided Adam Dunn, almost as much as he avoids fielding baseballs.
So the rules have changed. It's no longer a case of just knowing who's got the pitchers and hitters; it's now a matter of knowing who is going to age well and who is going to age badly, and who has a farm systems that can restock faster. Where everyone used to be trying to play the Yankees' game, now everyone is more or less laughing at the Yankees. (Who might still win since, well, dominant pitching can overwhelm poor defense, and they did upgrade defensively at first base and in the outfield. Too bad shortstop is still a mess. Just don't tell them; they get mad when you point that out.)
MLB is becoming, in short, more like the NFL, where fast team turnarounds are common and championships feel almost random, because by the time that a team breaks through, it's already most likely to be on the decline. Feel free to add in the warning noises about crazy people and sports betting here.
So, with that rousing call to action under our belts, here are my picks for the 2009 season. I promise that they will be as accurate as the 2008 MLB preview, when the Tigers won the Series over the Diamondbacks. Wait, that didn't happen? Well, then why the hell are you reading this? Right, because you're killing time at work. I understand.
NL East - Marlins (I know, shocking!)
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Dodgers
NL Wildcard - Cubs
NL Winner - Cardinals
AL East - Rays
AL Central - Indians
AL West - Angels
AL Wildcard - Red Sox
AL Winner - Red Sox
WS Winner - Cardinals
AL MVP - Grady Sizemore
NL MVP - Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young - Matt Garza
NL Cy Young - Ricky Nolasco
AL Comeback Player of the Year -- Victor Martinez
NL Comeback Player of the Year -- Chris Carpenter
NL Rookie of the Year - Jason Motte
AL Rookie of the Year - Matt Wieters
We know return you to the World Series defense by your Detroit... um, Philadelphia Phillies. (That's just for Mets Fan.)
Two AL East teams have announced to their fans that the first couple of months of their year don't matter very much, and that they are more than willing to jeopardize the integrity of their season in an attempt to save money at some future date. I speak, of course, of the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles.
Let's start with the team that wasn't very far away at all from winning the World Series last year, your defending AL East and AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. They've decided that the guy who had their season and championship in his hands during last year's ALDS, and the man that is ranked no lower than the #2 prospect in all of MLB, isn't worthy of their #5 starter role. No, seriously.
David Price will instead take his career 1.93 ERA, 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, 95 mile per hour lefthanded heat and 0.93 WHIP to Triple A Durham, so that he can work on, I don't know, his diction or something.
The Rays claim that what they are really trying to do here is to make sure that the young guy doesn't run into arm trouble, as they want to limit his 2009 output to 165 innings or less. Instead, the early season starts will go to Jason Hammel (career ERA of 5.90, mostly because he can't throw strikes) and/or Jeff Niemann (career ERA of 5.06, similar live arm with control issues).
What is really happening, of course, is that the Rays are playing games with Price over his arbitration years by trying to keep his service time down. They are, in effect, gambling that they are so much better than the Red Sox or Yankees that they can play at a disadvantage in April and maybe even May, while their potentially best starting pitching option twiddles his thumbs in Durham.
They just might get away with it, too. Hammel and Niemann both have live arms and might figure it out, and it's not like they will be facing the beasts of the world in the #5 slot, especially with early season rainouts and off days tending to limit the work of a #5 starter. It's also not the worst idea in the world to limit the innings from a talented 23-year-old.
But it just sends a terrible, terrible message to their fan base, and it also -- and this is the hidden bummer point -- increases the risk of injury and overuse to their top arms. Those would be James Shields, Matt Garza and most especially Scott Kazmir.
Because when Price is your #5 starter, he's not *really* your #5 guy; he's an arm that you aren't going to skip over. So you wouldn't have the temptation to overuse the top pitchers, in the same way that you will with the marginal candidates in the #5 slot. That will do double or better if the Rays stumble out of the gate while the Yanks and Red Sox get off to a hot start.
Oh, and there's also this. Price is fully aware that he's in the minors for no good reason at all, and is *very* likely to remember this when the time comes for his arbitration and free agent negotiations. Enjoy him for the legal minimum that you'll get him, Rays Fan.
Meanwhile in Baltimore, the #1 prospect in baseball is going to the minor league camp despite being a switch-hitting catcher with power. In 2008, Matt Wieters hit .345 with 15 homers and 40 RBIs at Class A Frederick and .365 with 12 homers and 51 RBIs at Double-A Bowie. In preseason action, he's 13 for 39 with a homer, five RBIs and four walks.
The Orioles have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to have this asset go to Norfolk, just so they can save on his future arbitration rights, and avoid taking calls from Scott Boras for a few more months.
Now, I understand that 2009 is not going to go well for Baltimore, and that there is a certain logic to making sure that the next Oriole team that will compete has Wieters with a marginal amount of more seasoning.
But let's just call this what it is: tanking baseball games, from the very start of the year, and telling their fan base that there is no reason to pay attention to them from the very start. Come back later, folks. If at all.
Don't think that the baseball gods haven't noticed. Nominal starting catcher Gregg Zaun, who will be 38 in April and is coming off a robust .700 OPS year with Toronto, got crunched at home plate last week, and is questionable for the start of the season with a bad elbow. If he can't go, the club will go with Chad Moeller or Robby Hammock, which is to say, the worst Opening Day starting catcher in MLB. As Big Star (and for the younger readers, Trent Reznor) once sang, you get what you deserve.
Here's a thought for Baltimore management: if 2009 is so outside of your realm of interest, discount the tickets until Wieters comes up. Trade away Brian Roberts, who won't be good when Wieters is in his prime. Sell off George Sherill in the bullpen, and maybe Chris Ray as well, since it's not like you care about winning the 1 in 3 games that you might possibly have a late lead for. Release Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff.
Or, and this is the real winning play... sell the team to any entity in the world that actually wants to win baseball games, rather than feel smart about their payroll while finishing fifth.
Oh, and cashing all of those revenue sharing checks from the teams that, you know, actually want to win.
Seriously, why on earth is anyone an Orioles fan?
And why on earth does MLB (and yes, I'm looking at you once more, Bud Selig, and regretting the decision to do so) perpetuate a compensation system in which teams are discouraged from starting the year with their best young players? Shouldn't Opening Day be about, you know, *hope* for every fan in every city, no matter how deluded that hope may be?
Or do only MLB+ teams get that now, officially, for good and forever?
In the WBC tonight, Japan 9, USA 4, and your WBC Final will be Japan versus the South Koreans.
Now, you might want to credit Daisuka Matsuzaka for the win, and give props to the electric relief work of Yu Darvish; the latter, especially, is hardcore. But that's really not in the tone of the blog, so here's your Top 6 Goats...
6) Derek Jeter. A crucial error that led to the Japanese explosion in the sixth inning, which made a manageable 4-6 deficit into the 4-9 final. How much longer is the statute of limitations on Jeet being clutch, anyway?
5) Adam Dunn. His career as a National can start now with the proper feel, as his deer in the headlights strikeout in the ninth gave this the perfect Terence Long-ish moment. He also took the Oh Fer Sucking Out Loud tonight with three K's, and there's a reason why beer league guys that sabermetric freaks drool over aren't, you know, actually present on teams that win championships. The faster this guy gets to an AL team and a DH role, the better.
4) David Wright. Also had an error to go with his perfect A-Rodish CYA RBI double and .281 average. No one will point the finger at him, but for a guy that's clearly the best third baseman in MLB as people draft today, they needed a lot more than this.
3) Roy Oswalt. Betrayed by his defense, but you're going to get that with 7 baserunners in 3.2 innings, and four of the six runs were earned. His 9.82 WBC ERA was indicative of the biggest reason why the Americans aren't going to win this year, and probably won't in the future, either: starting pitching. When Akinoria Iwamura is beating you senseless, it's not good.
2) Jake Peavy. A 14-run ERA that was so bad, manager Davey Johnson skipped him for Oswalt. Any post mortem of the US effort in the WBC will begin and end with the Mercy Rule Meltdown against Puerto Rico, and that was all on Peavy.
1) Davey Johnson. Has been just dying to pull the trigger and forfeit due to various injuries. His decision to go for Oswalt over Peavy didn't work out tonight, and why anyone on this earth would have Jeter at shortstop and Jimmy Rollins at designated hitter, in a game that you are supposed to want to win...
Well, dumb managers get what they deserve. And it's not like anyone is giving Johnson a job at managing in MLB now. For every really good reason.
With two fantasy league starters and the promised goodness of a matchup against the worst team in the league, I tuned in to the Sixers-Kings game.
And, um, hoo boy, are the Kings awful.
How bad are they? Well, the Sixers gave Kareem Rush playing time tonight. In fact, a good amount of it, the most he's had since December. Rush has played in two other games in the last two months. And it's not because the Sixers were having injury concerns, or that they didn't need the game; it was just because they could, and with a game looming tomorrow night in Portland, there was no reason not to.
The lead was 28 a little more than a minute into the second half, and it was closer than it should have been, because the Kings' "offense" of dribbling it up court and having a player shoot a crazy long three pointer was more effective than you might imagine. And yes, I know, what else was I expecting from a 15-54 team and all, but good grief, they are terrible. Philly set a new record for points in the first half for this season with 69... beating their previous record which was set on, you guessed it, the Kings.
(The Kings actually made it a game late behind Spencer Hawes slowly accumulating triple double numbers and Francisco Garcia getting a season high from made threes, but I never felt compelled to rewrite the lede here. Make of that what you will. Your final score was Sixers 112, Kings 100.)
There is a palpable feel and stink to a bad pro basketball team. The lifelessness of the defensive rotations, the abandon in which the opponent drives to the hoop, the zeal in which opposing star players start working, because they know that tonight is the night that you are not going to have to pace yourself, and that if you are going to get numbers, you will need them in the first three quarters, because your ass will likely be bench-bound in the fourth; it's all very recognizable to someone who came up in the Doug Moe Era in Philadelphia. Andre Iguodala had been struggling with his shot in the last couple of games; tonight he hit his first 10 in a row. Bad teams have a way of doing that.
But for this all to happen in a wildly enthusiastic setting like Sacremento, where the locals care way too much because they are the only game in town, and the team won 55 games just a couple of years ago... well, it's hard to imagine, really, that a franchise could fall this far, this fast, without some sort of catastrophe happening on the court or in the owner's box.
Sheesh, even last year, they had 38 wins and were in the playoff hunt.
There's also the *way* in which the Kings lose. Bank shots that miss the rim entirely. Turnovers are common, and not from attempts at spectacular passes; just from the routine, day-in, day-out kind of throws that you never see sail in to the stands from a decent team. They must have hit the sideline monitors a half dozen times tonight. No player stands out as a plus offensive or defensive player, and they don't move the ball in any way that might convince you that Pete Carill is drawing a paycheck.
Of course, they don't defend worth a damn, and didn't even in the glory days. The most speed I might have seen from a Kings employee tonight might have been from the mascot. He had hops, too.
Word has it that the Kings aren't long for Northern California, with the Maloofs looking to take them to Vegas or Anaheim or God knows where else. The next place will get a team with no real signature player. Kevin Martin gets numbers, but has no game that puts fear into any opponent. Rookie Jason Thompson may be tolerable, but they need a lot more than that. Hawes wound up with 17 points, 11 boards and 9 assists tonight, and for the life of me, I can't remember any of his points.
More telling about the Kings is that the owners seem to have lost their taste for this sort of thing. How else can you explain locking up Beno Udrih, a career mediocrity as a back up point guard, to a five-year, $32 million deal? Or failing to get anything meaningful in trades that moved veterans John Salmons and Brad Miller? Is anyone even still trying here?
But at least they beat the Knicks the other night, which means that they won't be the first team in the history of the league to lose every game they played against the opposing conference. So there's that. Oh, and they also will have the most lottery balls in next year's hopper, which is shaping up to be one of the worst drafts in recent history; maybe they'll wind up with Blake Griffin, who looks like another meh pro to me. Plus, they'll have lots of money under the cap to try to lure a premier free agent to a one-team cow town that might be on the move. Good luck with all of that.
For the Sixers, the win gives them a 2-2 road trip so far, with wins against the Lakers and Kings, and losses to the Suns and Warriors. Realistically, it's what you'd expect from the trip. if not quite the order you'd predict. If they can somehow pull out a win on the fourth game in five nights in Portland against the rested Blazers, they have a winning trip.
And despite the de facto bye they got tonight, I'm not really expecting it. Portland, unlike the Kings, are actually trying to win games.
So the Poker Story has turned bitter, my children, and I know you could care less, but I can't afford therapy thanks to my donkey ways at the table, so...
On Valentine's Day, I had the best night of my life on the felt and made good coin. Five times since then I've played cards with people for money, and five times since, my wallet has regretted it.
The really nice thing is that the losses have been all over the place. I've had nights where I've been just plain card dead, and nights when I've just been outplayed. Some nights, I've had bad beats; other times, I've had the feeling that I was broadcasting my hole cards on my face, and should just have the hands dealt face up to me to make things a little less obvious.
Some nights, I've been too tight; others, too loose. When I've slow-played high pairs, they've been cracked; when I raised them pre-flop, everyone bailed and I made nothing but the blinds. It's been a joy.
Sensing my weakness, the game that I host finally broke through into the fabled Two Table stage, with 14 players making it the Friday the 13th event. That went so well that I took Nyquil afterward and slept for 24 hours, dreaming of unemployment and homelessness. Good times!
There's still room for a few more at the Home Game -- hell, maybe I'll just deal from now on -- and you never know how many players will keep coming back, so if you're local and interested, there's still seats available... but probably for not much longer, because once we get to, say, 18, we're out of table spots, and the room can't really fit that many people anyway. So long as the host is tossing out free money, I'm thinking we'll have a popular game. (And no, this isn't a case of crying poor to get some new fish into the net. Right now, I'm the fish, and I come with my own pan and spices. Dig in.)
The Gray Lady today with a pro forma bad beat story, aka as Gosh, People On The Internet Sure Do Stuff. A few points on what is a decent read anyway...
> There is something visceral about the need to complain about your own poor luck, but it is essentially masturbatory.
It basically is something you are doing to try to cover your own regrets. But regrets are, to a certain extent, just someone reliving the past for the sake of avoiding the present. You might have a good reason to avoid the present, but eventually, you're going to stop. So why not now? (Answer: because I'm still hurting. Pout.)
> Bad beats in online poker create conspiracy thinking.
When you get beat runner-runner (aka, the opponent gets the perfect two cards on the turn and river to come from behind and win) in real life, it's agonizing but understandable. After all, you were there to watch the cards come out, and the conspiracy thought of This Game Is Rigged goes against the fact that you were watching with your own eyes. If the dealer is crooked, you missed it. Whereas in an online or computer game, it's just the cards the computer decided to put out there -- an intrinsically shakier proposition.
Secondly, when you are the victim of a big comeback in real life, you also get to, at least, see the surprise from your opponent. That helps to sell the fact that what happened to you was random, rather than nefarious. (Assuming, of course, that your opponent isn't a complete tool about getting bailed out by luck.)
> There's a huge difference between playing online and playing via computer. (Well, duh.)
One place that I've played at recently lets players put cash in play, along with the chips. It adds a certain recklessness to the game that I'm not all that comfortable with, but the players are so draw-happy that the game is profitable, or at least has been for me in the past. It's also, well, not as much fun for me.
When you play with just chips, it's something of a sunk cost. (I don't ever expect to make money at a table, or even break even, though I do more often than not. If you are playing with cash you absolutely need, you've got a problem, and are probably coming to the game on tilt from the start.) Cash, even if it's the same amount you were going to put into chips, never feels like an entrance fee; it's just cash, sitting right there. Take it and leave, if you're smart.
Computer games go from that feel of cash on hand to cash nowhere. Purchases are made with plastic, and the money that can be lost is twice removed. So people can (and do) go all-in with a lot more regularity than you might see at a table game, and it's just a fundamentally different game... one that, well, is going to generate a lot more bad-beat stories. If you get beat runner-runner for all of your chips, it's just a much bigger story then if you suffered a 10% loss. (The latter is, well, just not a story.)
> No one ever tells lucky win stories.
Six months ago in my house game, I was holding King-Queen suited when the flop came out King, King, King. The room more or less stopped cold to see it, and I confess, I acted it up a bit on my slow-play check. When the turn card was an ace, betting happened, and I was able to get the size of the pot up considerably. The river was a meaningless low card, and my four kings took a very large number of chips from the poor guy who had a full house, aces over kings. It's the best hand I've ever had in a live game, which is why I remember it, really.
A week ago in a tournament, I held Ace-King suited to a flop that was Queen, 10, 6, with the Queen and 10 matching my hole cards. With 19 outs (the three aces, three kings, four jacks and nine suited cards) to a good hand, and with a table image that was hyper-tight (I had been getting weak cards and was at a very loose table), I went all-in, and got called by a guy holding pocket twos. Despite being nearly a 2 to 1 underdog and after making a bad read on my hand strength, my opponent's cards held up.
Now, which story do you think I've thought about (and, sigh, told...) more? Yeah, the damn deuces. It is how we are wired; the joy from a win is more than overcome by the pain from a loss.
And in this, as in many things, poker is an apt metaphor for life...
Bad words in the Association today -- yes, I know, on top of the Marbury news! Suicide Watch better have extra staff tonight! -- from super agent David Falk, also known as The Guy That Repped Jordan.
He thinks that the economy is going to be so bad, and that the salary cap is going to contract so much, that you might be looking at a two-year lockout of the Players Association, just because the business will be so fundamentally broken that the owners would lose less money by going dark.
I work in marketing, and one of the lessons I've learned over the years is this... When a guy who makes his money from commissions says it's all going to hell, believe him. Sales guys whine only a little more than poker players, but that doesn't mean they can't sense when the gravy train is running dry. They don't generally get paid unless they can convince someone on the other side of the table that something good will happen if and when they scratch the check. That's not a job that anyone does with a firm conviction tht they, and their clients, and their entourages, will all be eating shrimp instead of lobster, and having sex with their wives rather than their mistresses, in the very near future.
The 300 remaining casual NHL fans might recognize this strategy, but for the Association that looked like it was going to eclipse MLB for the second spot during the Jordan Glory Days, not to mention having the second-most diversity from the US among all team sports... well, things were supposed to go better than this. (In case you are wondering what the most universal team sport is, it's what the rest of the world calls football. Speaking of which, why don't we just name our game something different, since the foot part of things is so challenged as to called "special"? I recommend Warball, which just sounds more American anyway. Moving on...)
The seeds have already been sown for fading stars like Jason Kidd and Allen Iverson to expect nothing and like it (nothing being defined as a 75% pay cut for the mid-level veterans' exemption) if they choose to lace 'em up next year. This assumes, of course, that there will be anything to lace 'em up for.
Now, I realize that the majority of people reading this will probably just emit a satisfied grunt at the idea of less Association in their lives. I'm thisclose away from finally giving you the all-year football you crave. (Did you know the Eagles signed no one today? Panic!) But you should also realize a couple of things here.
1) If the NBA goes poof, it doesn't make anything better for MLB or NFL. All it does is make the fear spiral grow wider, scare the advertising community more, and create a massive hole in several programming schedules that will be filled with... What? More shows about poker? I fail to see how that makes anyone's life any better, really.
2) The last time the Association went under, Shawn Kemp turned from a Nubian god into a parade float, while fathering scores of children out of wedlock. Do you really want to see what Zach Randolph will do with extra time on his hands? Won't anyone think of the children?
3) A gap in the sports calendar will only mean more time for the World Wide Lemur to invent utter BS. Do you really want to see what happens when the state Mount Rushmores get morphed into a Who's Next segment? I just hit myself in the temples for even thinking of the premise.
Anyway, getting back to the Association... adding to the malaise is the sudden realization among the higher ups that there really are no new lush and verdant attendance fields to run to. Many of the places that have gotten ball in the last few years (Memphis, Charlotte) don't seem to care that much about it, not when everything else is going to hell and the teams aren't terribly good.
Next, take a look at the places that used to have crowds earlier in this decade (Sacramento, New Jersey, Clippers, DC). Suddenly, they all seem at risk. The next tier of Ut Oh includes the people that you wouldn't think would be in trouble, but very well might be. Those include Milwaukee, where the owner is a tapped Senator, Cleveland, whose guy made his nut with (gulp) loans, Dallas with the can't have all gotten out of the Web dollars of the Cube, and Portland's Paul Allen, who lost control of a company the other day for the lack of funds.
Allen also has the worry of shooting pains in his groin every evening from my voodoo doll of him as well. Tonight, I'm thinking he needs to light some firewood.
Add it all up, and you get a league with the very real possibility of a bottom quarter or more at risk. So, before this whole thing turns into the Bad Tooth's threatened NBA book, what are their options, short of a massive and unprecedented devaluation of the temperamental and mostly irreplaceable help?
1) Very unconventional moves.
I'm not talking about the obvious ones of Vegas (the Kings-sized parachute for years, but it's far from foolproof, and recreational gambling has taken a massive hit in this economy as well), San Diego (the Clips think they can find lucre in their historic locale, but the people in that part of the world have never seemed crazed for hoop, and they remember Donald Sterling enough to hate him like everyone else), or all of those three-sport towns (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, St. Louis, Tampa) that have managed to live without hoop this long. Besides, the Stern Way is to get to an emerging market (San Antonio, Portland, Phoenix, and maybe even, sigh, OKC) first and get an edge.
So what's left? Brooklyn kind of counts, and would look better if not for some very dead in the water property and development cost issues. Vegas will suck someone in at some point. And then the real wild card... an overseas division. Because you really want to pick a fight with existing leagues, and create massive travel bills!
2) Contraction.
What the purists want, because they dream of some magical improvement in play as hungry players all kill each other for minutes, and teams can go with full 10-man squads. Maybe it helps, but when you see an NBA game, you don't see a lack of talent, even from the benches. You do see a lot of similar coaching, uneven officiating, and too much turnover for defensive cohesion... but this really isn't going to be solved by offing a half dozen teams.
3) The NBAPA taking it without lube.
Somehow, I think I'm putting my chips on this bet. And that Mr. Falk got a call from a certain Mr. Stern, suggesting that he might want to make such a statement in public and prep the patient...
You'll forgive, Dear Reader, if I'm a little less snarky or hate-filled than usual today. I'm in the afterglow of the best night of my life on the felt.
One of the guys at my monthly game gave me the tip on another house game, this one in a flat-out unbelievable setting. You drive up to a place with a quarter-mile long driveway, into a game room with five full tables, the biggest big-screen TV I've seen outside of a showroom, high-end framed NFL memorabilia and more, more, more. Twenty-seven people signed up for the tournament, and with some of the best play of my life (and cards, and luck), I was able to get to the final table in just my second tournament (outside of my single-table home game).
Just a few hands in, I doubled up against one of the guys I rode in with when I caught trips on my pocket sixes, then boated with aces on the turn; he was unable to get away from his trip aces. Trip deuces gave me another big payday at my second table, and I was able to chip up against a player who read my table presence as strong, even when I had little.
At the final table, I was to the left of the guy who paid me early, and my Q-K was able to break his A-10, and score the knockout, when I caught a queen. The short stacks to my left kept catching cards to make the table last until the antes got huge, leaving the final players all more or less short-stacked. When we got to heads-up, the final opponent and I split the pot for everything but the last $50 (awfully sporting of him, really), and after dodging a half hour of all-ins with several river saves, he took me out. Second place was worth a nice chunk of change, and after a break, I joined the cash game with a nice bankroll.
The cash table that I sat down at was loose and wild, with players putting cash on the table for straight and flush draws like they were betting on high pairs. I joined in the insanity when a minimum blind bit on 10-J spade matched up with Q-K spades on the flop. I hung in long enough to catch a 7-spade on the river, and from there, my table image was made. I didn't take a bad loss in the next two hours of play, was able to take down a fair number of pots without showing a card, and more or less added to my chip pile for the entire duration of play.
The whole night reminded me, oddly, of golf. Play that game long enough, and you'll have a breakthrough round, one where the shots fall, the putts lip in, and the luck is with you. You then make the great comic joke of golf, the one that men have been making for centuries, and the subject header of this little post.
And the next time you've got a club in your hand, it all goes to hell.
So, if you're free next Friday and want some easy money, come on down. I'm due for hours of crap cards, bad plays, and hard-core misery.
In my day job, I work in advertising, which means that right now, I'm about as happy as a pig in boiling oil. In January, consumers in the U.S. cut their spending for the sixth straight month, and that streak shows no sign of ending anytime soon. That's the longest period in 35 years. Even with a few extra bucks in our pockets from lower gas and oil prices, very few people are spending money with any kind of serious intent right now, and personal savings have gone through the roof. It all makes a fellow who, well, encourages people to buy things a mite antsy, though I'm still pretty convinced I can separate fools from their money. (Hey, you're reading this, right?)
However, every cloud has a silver cliche, and the true one is that art improves in bad times. Similarly, there are nice moments to be had for our little backwater of sports. And here they are!
10) Network shadenfraude. Do you yearn for a return to simpler days, when every game didn't have it's own theme song and enough talking heads to fill a particularly slow fraternity? Hard times just might save you, and by you, I really mean me.
Hey, networks -- how much are you paying those fifth through tenth irreplaceable talents on the pre-game show? Because I guarantee you that there isn't a single human being alive who decides whether or not to watch your show or not, based on that extra body. Besides, cutting the headcount down is the only way we are going to get Bill Cowher back on a sideline, and help speed Tiki Barber on his way to that homeless shelter that we all now is right around the corner.
9) Cheaper seats. As a one-time paying spectator for your Philadelphia 76ers, I have a word of advice for anyone thinking of paying full price for their seat: you, sir, are getting boned without lube, and not just by your .500 team. I get near constant last-minute deals to beg me to come fill the seats for up to 60 percent off face value. So in all likelihood, the people to the left and right of you paid less - a lot less. Ready to re-up your season tickets? Yeah, I didn't think so. Which means that the team is going to have to start pricing these things realistically. A man can dream.
8) Off season jobs for players. And I don't mean appearing in awkward ads for the local car dealership, assuming you still have one. Those lower ticket prices are going to eventually mean lower salaries, and alimony and paternity bills just don't go away. I'm hoping for stuff that allows them to get their cardio in. May I suggest grave digging? It's a good look, especially for a defensive player...
7) Clique Factor. In the mid '90s, I lived for a time without cable. So I spun the antennae in my Philadelphia hovel until I found something - anything - to take my mind off my surroundings. On a low powered UHF channel, I found old school ECW.
ECW was a super low budget wrestling federation comprised of lunatic stuntmen and women who would do anything for crowd reactions, including beat each other with whatever the crowd handed to them. The mic work was similarly freaky. Here's a clip.
It's hard to imagine for anyone who watches the neutered version that the WWE puts out now, but believe me when I tell you that this was frequently great. It was also, as far as I could tell, damn near a state secret. And that made it so much more fun to watch and root for. It was like, by watching it, you had ownership.
Now, think about your relationship with your favorite MLB, NBA or NFL team. Doesn't quite feel like that, does it? It's a business, you know it, and part of you has to hate and ignore that on a daily basis to get your enjoyment out of it. It also means that, on some level, you envy people who like college sports or English Premier League soccer, since they've got a little exclusivity thing going on there.
Besides, let's face it... there's frequently a Groucho moment about being a fan of a certain team. I was happier being an Eagles fan on the West Coast, where I didn't have to endure so many, well, Eagles fans. The ones that blame Donovan McNabb for everything start at tiresome and only get worse.
6) We'll all get tougher. Think about your grandparents, or anyone else that you may have ever met that lived through the Depression or World War II. Do you think they would ever go hard for Terrell Owens? Um, no. They'd hate Terrible for every single day of his life, even on the days when he was helping their favorite laundry win, because his value system is just so repellent to people who lived through an era of shared sacrifice.
There are a million little TO's out there, mostly playing wideout. Can you handle an NFL without them? Yeah, me too.
5) Owner shadenfraude. How much would you pay for various sports owners to hit the skids? I'm talking full bore, sell your fillings while appearing on Cash 4 Gold ads, make Leonard Tose look like a winner, 100% nitro-burning funny car flameout. Imagine Mark Cuban broke. Or Daniel Snyder. Or Donald Sterling. Or Jerry Jones. I think I just got wood.
4) Stadium improvement. This one is already starting, with Citibank finally making waves about getting out of their ridiculous deal with the Mets, but I'm looking for this to go further. Let's go back to naming stadiums after entities that don't, well, go out of business three years after getting the rights. Or, better yet, we all just stop agreeing to call them whatever the corporation that bought the rights wants us to. After all, did they pay you?
3) Luxury box removal. A year and a half ago, I took the Shooter Mom (who is, in all likelihood, a bigger football fan than you) to Lambeau for the Eagles-Packers game, because it was her birthday and because every NFL fan should go there at least once. What makes the place special, among the history, is the plain and simple fact that the best seats in the house are for people on bleachers who actually are blue collar enough to make noise when their team needs it. Luxury boxes are at the top of the place, where they belong, for people who don't care enough about the game to freeze their ass off.
If corporate spending falls off and luxury boxes go unsold, I'm dreaming that these abominations will actually be removed, because teams will have no better option than to, well, try to get a real home field advantage again. And I know, I'm dreaming, but how corporations can get away with buying these things in a crap economy is also dreaming. A bad dream.
2) Small market boom. If the money drains out of the games, eventually it will bleed faster out of the big markets, just because there's more air in their balloon. Maybe we get to a point where baseball teams don't have nearly $200 million of difference between payrolls. If it's $100 million, that's got to be better, doesn't it? And if that means that some teams go away or move, so be it. A century of watching the Yankees outspend people is enough.
1) A friendlier international profile. Imagine you are a baseball fan in Japan, or a basketball fan in Europe or China. How happy are you, really, to see your best players leave you high and dry for the NBA and MLB? Sure, the first few guys that went over had to be encouraging, because they showed that your best could compete at the highest level, but at this point, you are probably feeling the same about the MLB+ teams as the other poorer teams.
Maybe this is a small thing, but after many years of going our own way as a nation, I kind of like the idea of other countries feeling less bent at us. And if that means rich teams don't have a de facto second farm system, I'm OK with that. Assuming you aren't a fan of an MLB+ team, I suspect you are too.
Because I'm something of a hateful prick, one of my favorite post-game pastimes is surfing the blogs of whatever NFL team that lost to the Eagles. As you might imagine, that Week 17 game against the Cowboys provided at least a year's worth of solid stroke-fuel.
The Vikings, with their Midwestern stoicism, didn't give me much, but the Giants, oh, sweet, sweet, Giants. They have provided me with so much delicious pain. So irrational. So illogical. So, so beautiful. Join me, won't you, as we traipse through the mental and emotional collapse of a fanbase. (All misspellings, curious grammatical innovations and general stupidity original.)
From Big Blue 101: I'm too pissed for stats or analysis right now. When I wake from my drunken stupor in a few days I'll come back and talk about what this means for the Giants. But for now, I retreat to my basement with a bottle of Jack Daniels to soothe things over. Cause at least Jack Daniels doesn't disappoint me by blowing two fourth and short conversions in an important playoff game.
From the comments at ULTIMATENYG:I wish in football it would not be such a big deal to change QBs if one does not "have it." Clearly, Eli, our starting pitcher, did not have it, so bring in a reliever. Carr has zip and confidence. [David Carr's career stats: 59.7% completion percentage, 62 TDs, 70 INTs and a QB rating of 70.2 not including his grossly inflated numbers from this year.]
From the game thread at Big Blue Review: We played Philly because of a zip code instead of a record. San Diego made the playoffs because of a zip code instead of a record. Indy had to play a team on the road that they were 4 games better than because of a Zip Code. Atlanta had to go on the road against a team two games worse because of a zip code. The #1 seed in both conferences played harder opponents with better records because of zip codes.
I come from this little place called logic…and while living here, I’ve determined that a team with a better f---ing record deserves more than a team with a worse f---ing record…not for that team to be cheated because their taxpaying fan base happens to reside in a location further located east or west or north or south. It’s called bulls--t. I tried explaining why the NFL does the playoff system that they do to my non-football watching girlfriend, and she couldn’t understand for the life of her why the system would be so dumb…and I told her I don’t know either. [Dude, you had a bye week and a home playoff game. What else do you want? The Eagles to play with nine men on defense? They have to start A. J. Feely? Quit whining like a bitch.]
From the comments at The Blue Screen: So far, Eli Manning has had 1 good Quarter as a NY Giant. Last year in the superbowl. Other than that, he is the largest choke artist that ever donned a Giants Jersey. A complete waste of cash, continually looks like a dejected 6 year old while playing the game, has no heart at all, completely indecisive during every call at the line. Here's an idea, draft a quarterback with a pair, enough with the choir boy, send him packing!!!
From GMENHQ (Who said prior to the game, "The Eagles couldn't make the playoffs without the failures of others this season. Team of destiny? Absolutely not. Team of luck? Definitely."): Notice how I didn’t title this post “Eagles win,” or anything to do with the Eagles winning. Because for anyone who watched this game, it was clear that the New York Giants pulled a Plaxico Burress by shooting themselves in the foot (rather than the leg) all day long.
Actually, I'm pretty sure it was Donovan and the Birds shooting the Giants in the ass, but Giants fans should go ahead and believe whatever they like. They've got plenty of time to lie to themselves now.
Let us not let these brave stalwarts of suck to pass into the history books without note, my friends. (Oh, and don't think that the lack of Eagles on this list is because I still have some faith that they'll be playing games next week. It's just that I won't miss them. And neither will anyone else in town.)
The Week 17 picks are, perhaps, the hardest ones to write for the year. You get to do them in the midst of your Christmas routines, which is to say, when you barely have enough time to wipe, let alone think. Your money will be on teams with nothing to play for. The temptation to just take a knee and come out firing on Wild Card Weekend is strong.
But let's face it. People boo teams that just take a knee with money on the table, and they should. Play the game, not the clock.
I mean, so what if my 15 games over .500 record over 16 weeks just gets me a few hundred bucks from the sportsbook? It's the principle of the thing, the dream that my year's record will be something I can feel good about, along with the warm feeling you always get when you beat the odds and take the money home. So let's buckle the chinstrap, pay back the bastards that ruined us in head to head fantasy football leagues, and go to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)
New York at MINNESOTA (-6.5)
With last week's lucky but good overtime win over the Panthers, the G-Men clinched home field through the playoffs, and have little to play for this week. Some folks will think that Tom Coughlin will emulate last year's winning play against the Patriots by playing his starters, but I'm not one of them. Last year's team was an underdog that was in a historical situation of trying to knock off an undefeated team; this year's has everything it needs already, along with banged-up running backs that it will absolutely need to win in January.
Meanwhile, the Vikings, thanks to the Packers El Foldo on MNF (and what a fine year the brain trust in Wisconsin is having), are still at risk for losing the division and home field next week. At home, on a fast track, they'll get it done, provided Tavaris Jackson doesn't put it on the ground... and seeing how he's fairly nimble and the Giants won't care enough, that's not going to happen. Plus, any game where you might see David Carr is a game the G-Men aren't winning.
Vikings 27, Giants 17
Chicago at HOUSTON (-3.5)
Not sure why the home team is getting the favorite status here; you'd think that the Bears would be attracting more money, especially since they've got something to play for. The Texans also don't really create confidence after failing to take out the Raiders in Oakland last week. You can even make the Team Of Destiny talk happen for the Bears, since their season was saved on a chip-shot field goal block.
But what's tipping me to Houston is (a) the fact that the Bears have no one that can stay with Andre Johnson, which means the Texans will be at least 100 yards better on Sunday than they were last week against Nmandi Asomugha, (b) Kyle Orton suddenly looks like Kyle Orton again, (c) Matt Forte looks run down, and (d) home teams with the short MNF week are never a good idea the next week on the road. Even when they have something to play for.
Texans 27, Bears 20
Carolina at NEW ORLEANS (+3.5)
Will the #2 seed in the NFC really go into the post-season with back-to-back losses against a team with nothing to play for? Yes, if only because the Saints will be fired up to try to get Drew Brees his single-season passing yardage record. Also, it's high time that Jake Delhomme gave the world a crap game to scare money away from them. Also, the Saints are OK at running the ball in the red zone now that they've moved away from the big names (Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister) and to the people who can actually do it (Pierre Thomas, Aaron Stecker).
A final aside: the Panthers have something to play for, but the NFC South home teams are 11-0 this year. So when this pick goes bad, as nearly all of my Panther picks do, you won't be surprised, right?
Saints 31, Panthers 24
St Louis at ATLANTA (-14.5)
A huge number to put down for a team that might not have too much to play for, but this Rams team is so close to the Quitting Line, they might not even line up for the second half. Expect Michael Turner to make his claim for the #1 RB in fantasy football after another 150 to 200 yard day here, and for the Falcons defense to reward Week 17 players with their waiver wire grabs. Heck, the Falcons might even wind up winning their division and the #2 seed. For a franchise that looked done for a decade from the Vick Debacle, it's beyond amazing.
The only chance the Rams have of covering this number is if Stephen Jackson cares and plays four quarters, which is to say, if he does something he didn't do in the entire year. The Rams lose their 10th straight with this one, which should cure the world of any inclination to hire Jim Haslett in a football-related capacity.
Falcons 31, Rams 10
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at Cincinnati
This, in a nutshell, is why people hate fantasy football: the fact that an ungodly amount of money is going to be swayed by the likes of Tyler Thigpen and Cedric Benson. I like the road team to cover here, if only to continue the Ohio Misery. Also, the Bengals ran Benson 40 times last week, and that kind of workload kills good backs. What it does to a piece of crap like Benson won't be pretty to watch. (And yes, if you're betting this game hard, it's more Gambling Anonymous grist.)
Chiefs 24, Bengals 20
OAKLAND (+13.5) at Tampa Bay
Courage, gamblers. The Bucs have everything to play for. The Raiders are a terrible team with no functioning coach. The Bucs are in a good division; the Raiders, a terrible one. So why am I thinking the cover will happen? Well, the Bucs have been terrible against the run for weeks now, ever since Monte Kiffin told them that he wouldn't be back next year. Jeff Garcia never puts up a ton of points, and his best WR (Antonio Bryant) will go poof in this game against Asomugha. JeMarcus Russell has actually been tolerable for the past month, and Zach Miller is the best TE in the NFL that no one knows about. I'm not really expecting the upset here, but a cover is very possible.
Bucs 24, Raiders 17
Detroit at GREEN BAY (-9.5)
Independent of where you come out on the rooting side of a Winless Lions Season, the simple fact is that this Packers team is a *lot* better, and playing at home against a road dome team. Aaron Rodgers wants to make sure he has this job next year; the only loss of the year to the Lions is not the way to write the story of how 2008 really wasn't his fault. (And if you look at the 2007 13-3 Packers team, it's clear that they used up all of the 2008 team's luck. That, and it's cornerbacks. Someone needs to tell Al Harris about that fork in his ass.) Calvin Johnson being hurt doesn't help much, either.
Look for the Pack to get up early, probably on a Detroit turnover (the defense is quite good at scoring points, which makes their won-loss record even more inexplicable), and for the home team to feed Ryan Grant a lot in the second half. When it's all over, we'll finally be able to put away that Tampa '70s B-roll footage, too. Someone please find those guys and let them know that the media won't be plaguing them any more...
Packers 34, Lions 16
Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5)
Jim Sorgi! Vince Young! A bunch of running backs that normally return kicks! The payoff game for my cursed ownership of Anthony Gonzalez! Can you just smell the disappointment coming out of the NFL telecast booths that this game will mean squadouche, and that both coaches should play it accordingly?
Neither team can change their seeding in this; they can only get hurt and/or tip their hands for a possible second or third round matchup. So we should get a game that resembles August, and in that kind of contest, you're insane to put money down. Or to bet the road team. (The Colts also get the Chargers-Broncos survivor next week, so they're going to be very interested in making sure they're comfy in the hot tub on Sunday night.)
Colts 24, Titans 20
Cleveland at PITTSBURGH (-10.5)
I realize that every time I bet the Steelers and they lose, it's all my fault. But for heaven's sake, I like this number for the home team just on defense. Cleveland just went scoreless against the Bengals, for heaven's sake. And they are starting Bruce Gradkowski. On the road. The over-under in this game should be for the defensive team's points.
If you were Romeo Crennel, would you even show up for this game? You could get the jump on the airport traffic, and have the same impact on the contest, by just putting up a cardboard cutout and having some assistant move it with the line of scrimmage? You'd be warmer.
Steelers 31, Browns 6
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at Buffalo
Oh, the puling. You think Patriots Fan has been insufferable, folks? Just wait until his precious little 11-win team that played a kitten-soft schedule doesn't get their ticket punched for the postseason. I'd normally feel some sympathy, given their injury woes and the simple fact that more Chargers/Broncos football is really not good for anyone... but frankly, Pats Fans, your tears are SO YUMMY. (And this game will be closer than anticipated, just because after last week's "contest" against Arizona, they'll need some adjustment time for playing a team that cares a little. Fred Jackson also wants this job next year.)
Patriots 27, Bills 20
Seattle at Arizona (-6.5)
Crappy Redemption Time for the Cardinals, who want to avoid the monicker of Worst Team Ever to Host A Playoff Game. They get the Seahawks, who won their going-away game for Walrus Holmgren in the home snow against the reeling Jets. This week, the Cardinals will "muscle" up and Holmgren will lay down. The Cards will be up enough to bench their "stars" late, just to put the final dagger in the back of fantasy football owners. I'm angry just thinking about it.
Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20
Washington at SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5)
Two teams with nothing to play for, one team with a coach that will be there next year. The 'Skins come off a satisfying spoiler win against the Eagles at home, while the Niners pulled out a late win in St. Louis. So long as Shaun Hill doesn't turn the ball over, I like the home team to win a game that history will little note, nor long remember.
Niners 24, Redskins 13
MIAMI (+2.5) at New York
Oh, J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS Fan. The Favre Era hasn't gone well for you, has it? And to think, no one could have seen this coming, that a 40-year-old turnover machine with a terrible recent playoff record might (a) fade down the stretch, (b) annoy you with retirement talk, and (c) get recognition that he doesn't deserve (a Pro Bowl berth, when he should have lost his job).
The Dolphins have some issues here; they are a warm-weather team on the road, and they have less talent than the high-salaried home team. But they also have the better QB in Prodigal Son Chad Pennington, who will manage the game, hand off to their talented running backs, not make the killer mistake and win the game. The bitterness from J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan should be something to see, and the booing will be legendary.
Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Dallas at PHILADELPHIA (-1.5)
So here's how this works. Since this is the 4:15 game, the teams will know if the game means anything, depending on the outcome of Bears-Texans and Raiders-Bucs. However, this won't matter at all to the outcome of the game, because it's that kind of game; hell, I expect the Eagles to be *better* if the game is meaningless, since that's the kind of perfect Screw Your Draft and Keep Your Cancerous Coach outcome.
Besides, it's a pressure situation, and I think we've proven what Tony Romo does in that kind of situation. (And with Marion Barber and Jason Witten still banged up, the Eagles defense will be much better than last time, and it'll be cold and nasty to keep the points down.)
Oh, and here's a fun fact: 1996 was the last year in which Dallas had a winning record in December. From hell's heart, I stab at thee, Cowboy Fan.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
Jacksonville at BALTIMORE (-12.5)
A lot of points to lay on a home team with a rookie QB, but the Jaguars are without top corner Rasheed Mathis, and the Ravens need the game for the playoffs. Baltimore might be a bit of a paper tiger, with an 0-5 record against playoff teams... but the Jags aren't a playoff team, and the Ravens are. Look for 200+ yards rushing and a defensive score, as David Garrard's season of misery finally ends.
Ravens 24, Jaguars 10
Denver at SAN DIEGO (-8.5)
The final game of the season is a play-in game for the right to host the Colts, and the Chargers will win this one easily, just to suck in a lot of money on people thinking they are (finally) on a roll.
If you are tempted to take the Broncos just because the Chargers are that kind of awful tease, consider this: Tatum Bell is the last healthy Denver running back. Don't expect much.
In a shootout (because Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal will produce), look for Jay Cutler to turn the ball over more, and for LaDanian Tomlinson to make tens of millions of fantasy football owners curse bitterly as he finally has a breakout game in 2008.
Chargers 34, Broncos 24
Last week: 9-7
Year to date: 122-107-7
So, my fellow Eagles Fans, did you watch the whole thing? After all, they were only one play away for five straight drives, and the fact that four of them were three-and-outs didn't dissuade any hopes, did it. The Eagles had the ball 12 times today; 5 times they went off with alacrity, and only the final doomed drive got into double figures in plays. The finale, to Has To Be Gone WR Reggie Brown being the Kevin Dyson Yard away from sending it to likely overtime.
In trouble on the road, Fat Man Reid did what he always does; throw it a million times with utterly unimaginative playcalling and put everything on Donovan McNabb. He better keep him next year, because if he tries this nonsense with Kevin Kolb, he'll lose double-digit games. I'm also fairly sure that if he could have been eating during the game, he would have.
Showing that there is no mercy on this side of the grave, the loss doesn't eliminate them from playoff contention. They no longer control their fate, having disliked that kind of responsibility for the three hours of this game.
A hidden bummer factor before the game were the injuries to Kevin Curtis and Hank Baskett... which led to more of Brown and DeSean Jackson, who had four drops today, including one in the last minute that would have tied things. DJ's still the keeper in the unit, but he's clearly hit the wall this year, and when the talent is this underwhelming, going to the backups is not a recipe for success.
In the wreckage, take one moment of appreciation for the defense, which gave up their only touchdown on a short field after a fumble, and refused to quit late despite the offense giving them every reason to. Of course, they also forced no turnovers, but when you give up 10 points on the road, you should win.
I'm not sure what needs to happen here, talent-wise. Some people want a new TE, since LJ Smith is horrible and Brent Celek probably isn't good enough for full-time duty. Others want a new RB, since relying on Brian Westbrook to be healthy is right up there with depending on your 401K to retire -- previously sound, and now, not so much. Defensively, it'd always be nice to have a true two-gap defensive tackle for once, to actually make run stopping a matter of course, rather than concern. Others want the QB gone.
But there isn't anyone that I know that wants to see Reid on the sidelines again next year. The team is just too maddening to deal with in its current incarnation, too wasteful of talent, too deficient of planning. Even if they win next week, get into the playoffs and win games when they are there, it's just... well, let's put it this way. None of us are too shocked by today.
Leave, Reid. Whether by fork lift or cargo net is up to you, but it's Time. To. GO.
Today's list is inspired by today's NFL viewing. Funny how that works, isn't it?
As for the actual games today...
1) Why Jeff Fisher doesn't try a 50-yard field goal with Rob Bironas, wind or no wind... and if that is the case, why the fourth down play is a long pass... and Bironas had hit all day... well, yeesh. Terrible way to lose the #1 seed.
2) The Titans also lost Albert Haynesworth today. If that's a long-term injury, the Titans just became one of the least imposing top two seeds in NFL history.
3) Independent of who you were rooting for in the Ravens-Steelers game, it's a crappy way to end a great game, for the refs to give a touchdown judgment on replays that really didn't look conclusive. I was waiting to see the Steelers go for it on fourth down for the win, or to kick the field goal and have the game go to overtime... and instead, it's another Ravens screwjob by the refs. Both teams deserved better.
4) Leon Washington, on a per-touch basis, might be the best player in the NFL this year. He's just electric.
5) If there's a worse quarterback in the history of the NFL than J.P. Losman, I haven't seen him. Yes, I know, Bobby Hoying? Chris Weinke? David Carr? Give me Loserman over all of those guys. Four turnovers in the fourth quarter.
6) The fact that the Chargers are still alive in the playoff race is utterly amazing to me. Seriously, the West divisions need to be collapsed and reshuffled. I'd be OK with East and West Conferences, with eight-team divisions, and if you win the division, that's a bye, and everything else is wild carding. Add the South to the West in each conference, and solve this whole problem. Gah.
7) Jim Zorn seems just a *little* out of his depth now, don't you think, Redskins Fan?
Here's a fun thing to keep track of during the NBA season: will the stolen team that used to be the Seattle Supersonics set the new league record for utter futility?
With a 2-21 start to the season and precious few good players -- you've got Kevin Durant as the new empty calorie scoring source who doesn't make anyone better, Jeff Green as the reputed defensive ace who really can't shoot enough to deserve minutes, and Russell Westbrook, who has NBA quicks but a breathtakingly bad 37% shooting percentage. And those are the promising young players.
So they don't shoot it well. They also don't have handle it, with 15+ giveaways a game. They give points back at the free throw line. Their shot blocking is among the league's worst, and the home court advantage they were supposed to have from a rapturous crowd hasn't materialized either; 1-11 there, 1-10 on the road. They've fired the first coach and gotten no bump from that, either.
Now, realistically, they probably will pick it up a bit later, and get the eight wins they need in their last 59 games to avoid historic ineptitude. They've played more games than most other teams, which means they've had less practice time and more back to backs. In the second half of the season, they'll play more games that are out of it, and probably catch a few wins where they simply want it more than their opponents.
But they really are quite bad, and given their patronage and ownership, I'm going to be rooting for them to lose every game, and for Durant to leave skid marks on his way out of town after Year Three of his rookie contract.
It is, after all, only what they deserve.
I'm certain that to some portion of the audience, The Day The Indoor War Died will be right up there with the Lennon assassination, the Challenger tragedy, 9/11 and that time when you found a five dollar bill on the street in terms of Memorable Days of Your Life.
Or, well, not.
Less football is generally not a good thing, but what the hell, maybe this will finally lead to the quality spring league, using real rules, that the market demands. Watching CFL rejects bounce off arena walls and netting... didn't really do it for me. Sorry.
