Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Price Is Wrong

Two AL East teams have announced to their fans that the first couple of months of their year don't matter very much, and that they are more than willing to jeopardize the integrity of their season in an attempt to save money at some future date. I speak, of course, of the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles.

Let's start with the team that wasn't very far away at all from winning the World Series last year, your defending AL East and AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. They've decided that the guy who had their season and championship in his hands during last year's ALDS, and the man that is ranked no lower than the #2 prospect in all of MLB, isn't worthy of their #5 starter role. No, seriously.

David Price will instead take his career 1.93 ERA, 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, 95 mile per hour lefthanded heat and 0.93 WHIP to Triple A Durham, so that he can work on, I don't know, his diction or something.

The Rays claim that what they are really trying to do here is to make sure that the young guy doesn't run into arm trouble, as they want to limit his 2009 output to 165 innings or less. Instead, the early season starts will go to Jason Hammel (career ERA of 5.90, mostly because he can't throw strikes) and/or Jeff Niemann (career ERA of 5.06, similar live arm with control issues).

What is really happening, of course, is that the Rays are playing games with Price over his arbitration years by trying to keep his service time down. They are, in effect, gambling that they are so much better than the Red Sox or Yankees that they can play at a disadvantage in April and maybe even May, while their potentially best starting pitching option twiddles his thumbs in Durham.

They just might get away with it, too. Hammel and Niemann both have live arms and might figure it out, and it's not like they will be facing the beasts of the world in the #5 slot, especially with early season rainouts and off days tending to limit the work of a #5 starter. It's also not the worst idea in the world to limit the innings from a talented 23-year-old.

But it just sends a terrible, terrible message to their fan base, and it also -- and this is the hidden bummer point -- increases the risk of injury and overuse to their top arms. Those would be James Shields, Matt Garza and most especially Scott Kazmir.

Because when Price is your #5 starter, he's not *really* your #5 guy; he's an arm that you aren't going to skip over. So you wouldn't have the temptation to overuse the top pitchers, in the same way that you will with the marginal candidates in the #5 slot. That will do double or better if the Rays stumble out of the gate while the Yanks and Red Sox get off to a hot start.

Oh, and there's also this. Price is fully aware that he's in the minors for no good reason at all, and is *very* likely to remember this when the time comes for his arbitration and free agent negotiations. Enjoy him for the legal minimum that you'll get him, Rays Fan.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the #1 prospect in baseball is going to the minor league camp despite being a switch-hitting catcher with power. In 2008, Matt Wieters hit .345 with 15 homers and 40 RBIs at Class A Frederick and .365 with 12 homers and 51 RBIs at Double-A Bowie. In preseason action, he's 13 for 39 with a homer, five RBIs and four walks.

The Orioles have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to have this asset go to Norfolk, just so they can save on his future arbitration rights, and avoid taking calls from Scott Boras for a few more months.

Now, I understand that 2009 is not going to go well for Baltimore, and that there is a certain logic to making sure that the next Oriole team that will compete has Wieters with a marginal amount of more seasoning.

But let's just call this what it is: tanking baseball games, from the very start of the year, and telling their fan base that there is no reason to pay attention to them from the very start. Come back later, folks. If at all.

Don't think that the baseball gods haven't noticed. Nominal starting catcher Gregg Zaun, who will be 38 in April and is coming off a robust .700 OPS year with Toronto, got crunched at home plate last week, and is questionable for the start of the season with a bad elbow. If he can't go, the club will go with Chad Moeller or Robby Hammock, which is to say, the worst Opening Day starting catcher in MLB. As Big Star (and for the younger readers, Trent Reznor) once sang, you get what you deserve.

Here's a thought for Baltimore management: if 2009 is so outside of your realm of interest, discount the tickets until Wieters comes up. Trade away Brian Roberts, who won't be good when Wieters is in his prime. Sell off George Sherill in the bullpen, and maybe Chris Ray as well, since it's not like you care about winning the 1 in 3 games that you might possibly have a late lead for. Release Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff.

Or, and this is the real winning play... sell the team to any entity in the world that actually wants to win baseball games, rather than feel smart about their payroll while finishing fifth.

Oh, and cashing all of those revenue sharing checks from the teams that, you know, actually want to win.

Seriously, why on earth is anyone an Orioles fan?

And why on earth does MLB (and yes, I'm looking at you once more, Bud Selig, and regretting the decision to do so) perpetuate a compensation system in which teams are discouraged from starting the year with their best young players? Shouldn't Opening Day be about, you know, *hope* for every fan in every city, no matter how deluded that hope may be?

Or do only MLB+ teams get that now, officially, for good and forever?

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