Driving (Down) Miss Grady, or Death in the Outfield

One of the things that I've noticed in prepping for my various leagues, and in reading way too many scouting reports from way too many sources, is this.

I'm really not overwhelmed by the selections at outfielder this year. And considering how, historically, outfield is where you can always find a replacement level or better bat, that's not good.

Here are the top ten OFs in fantasy, according to the Yahoo rankings.

Grady Sizemore

Ryan Braun

Josh Hamilton

BJ Upton

Alfonso Soriano

Carlos Beltran

Carlos Quentin

Carlos Lee

Carl Crawford

Manny Ramirez

Forgive me, if some level, I'm not overwhelmed. (I know, people would really rather have Quentin, Lee or Crawford over the Man Ram, after what he did in Dodger Laundry last year? I'm not feeling that, at least not in a standard re-draft league. But that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.)

It starts with Sizemore, a very nice player who, well, just doesn't scream out #1 OF. If you play with BA instead of OBA (well, you're an idiot, but it is the default setting), you are only getting four categories instead of five, and elite but not overwhelming (i.e., sub 40) homers and steals.

Grady is still young enough to get better, and I love me the 30/30 guys, but this used to be the kind of player you would got in the second round. If he wasn't still 24 and on the upswing, he'd be Carlos Beltran -- good, but never the top guy.

Second up is Ryan Braun, the emerging third-year slugger from Milwaukee. Here, you are buying power and lots of it... but you also get it in a guy that was wildly inconsistent last year, with months where he didn't do much at all. He's a very good player, just not what you think of as the #2 OF. (He's also, of course, a failed infielder, and while that might not seem relevant right now, it will be later. Stay with me on this.)

Josh Hamilton is third, and I personally think he could easily deliver top pick value this year... but he won't steal more than a dozen bases, and he does have that history of off-season self-inflicted wounds to keep you on guard. I think he'll hit 40+ HRs this year and lead the AL in RBIs, but there is a reason that someone who is this good isn't with his first organization.

We'll move to the speed round here...

BJ Upton is fantastic, but has shown some attitude issues and an injury history, and no one really knows if he can keep it together enough to play to his talent level... Alfonso Soriano is probably on the down side now, and given his relative disinterest in taking walks, the down slope could be steep... Carlos Beltran has been very consistent and useful as a Met, but always less than spectacular, since he's usually no more than the third or fourth best player on just his own team... Carlos Quentin is on his second team and has had one really good year that ended early with injury; in this market, that makes him the #6 OF... Carlos Lee doesn't run and won't start to at his age, and plays for a terrible team that should limit his RBI opportunities... Carl Crawford is coming off a lost injury year and has never provided even average homers and RBIs... and Manny Ramirez is, well, freaking insane, 36 going on 37, and prone to all kinds of self-inflicted silliness. He can't possibly have the year he had last year, because he can't possibly continue to care this much.

Now, are there values to be had in the outfield? Of course. Will a bunch of these guys overcome their question marks and be worth their draft positions or better? Sure.

But the bigger point remains that the best and brightest baseball players, the ones with the most natural talent at hitting the tar out of the ball, are not patrolling the outfield.

Compare the best of the best (Sizemore, Braun and Hamilton) versus the top three shortstops (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins). HanRam hits with as much power as Sizmore; all three infielders steal loads more bases, and are less risky given their past record of performance. Even in a position-free counting game, you're probably going with the shortstops.

If you think that's an unfair comparison, let's try first base, where you get to go against Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. Only the fact that no first baseman contributes much in steals keeps this from going to the cornermen. And if A-Rod were starting the year healthy, the comparison with third base (others in the triumvirate there are David Wright and Evan Longoria) would also be surprisingly close to the infielders.

Now, maybe this is just because baseball has evolved, with more accurate offensive statistics and defensive statistics giving GMs more of an inclination to keep the people that have the very best tools in the place where they can make the most impact. Maybe it's just the second generation Cal Ripken Effect, where baseball players grew up dreaming of being in the infield and wouldn't take you're too big for an answer. Perhaps it's just reflecting the influx of foreign players, since so many of those star names aren't born in the USA. Maybe it's just a temporary cycle that doesn't really merit a conspiracy theory.

Or maybe, and this is the nasty little secret, baseball isn't attracting nearly the same number of elite athletes, and is just funneling what they have into the places where they will make the most difference. Because, well, and with no disrespect to Mr. Sizemore... if he's the very best that MLB has to offer in the position that takes up a third of the at bats, that's not really the baseball world I grew up in. Or yours, for that matter.