Today's drop over at 205 is pretty sports-related, just to keep giving different looks over there. Who will take down the title of most hated man in the world of gambling nerds? Oh, come on, like you couldn't guess from the image. Seriously.
Every year in every fantasy league, some guy overpays for saves, and almost always winds up losing his league over it. Fantasy analysts say it, but especially in keeper leagues, it's hard to get away from it: don't pay for saves. And yet, since you have to have them in all likelihood to win your league, you wind up, well, paying for saves.
While all of the selected numbers presented below are just for the first week of course, they're still fairly educational. The following eight closers were all reasonably well regarded before the draft as owning their jobs, in decent situations, and in home parks that weren't bandboxes. You wouldn't want to stake your life on any of them being absolute lockdown options, but if you had them for not so much, you'd feel OK about your team.
Or, well, not.
Brandon Morrow -- 2 saves, 10.13 ERA, 1.88 WHIP.
Brian Fuentes -- 2 saves, 12.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP.
Kevin Gregg -- 1 save, 13.50 ERA, 3.50 WHIP.
B.J Ryan - 0 saves, 21.60 ERA, 4.20 WHIP.
Troy Percival - 1 save, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP.
Kerry Wood -- 0 saves, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP.
Jason Motte - 0 saves, 15.43 WHIP, 3.00 WHIP.
Oh, and I own(ed) over half of this list in various leagues, which explains why I'm noticing this with, well, some enhanced interest.
The lesson, as always: I'm an idiot.
Word out of Milwaukee, in no way surprising, that Trevor Hoffman will start his Brewer career on the disabled list.
Of course, I own him on two out of three leagues, because that is just how I roll, bitches.
The move is retroactive to March 27, because the team doesn't think that he'll be out for a very long time, and 41 year old closers are not exactly known for their durability. So I'm not exactly cutting him. Just myself.
Luckily, I'm sure this will be the last time this year that I have to deal with hurt players. Good to get that out of the way early, really.
In Chicago, Cubs manager Lou Pinella has announced that Kevin Gregg, a reliever that the team acquired from Florida in the off-season, will now have the closer role. This is to some mild upset of fantasy owners who have drafted the electric stuff of Carlos Marmol, especially seeing how Marmol has been the best reliever in the Cubby pen for years now, but has seen the counting stat go to Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, and now Gregg.
Fun tangent for Not Cubs Fans: start a meme in Chicago sports radio and the Internets claiming that this is a race-based decision, since the other three men are all tighty whitey and Marmol is not, because what else could a decision in Chicago be?
In Seattle, top arm Brandon Morrow is going to the pen as another team decides to baby a talented young guy, rather than risk Dusty Baker-esque malpractice accusations later. Morrow is expected to eventually close, if for no other reason than the Mariners aren't going to win more than 65 to 70 games and want to have at least one guy who could be named to the All-Star Game if Ichiro craters this year.
In New York, I'd say something more here about Joba Chamberlain, but that would cause the Internets to break under the weight of people talking about Joba Chamberlain. Let me just cut to the chase here and say that if he were going to the pen because Mariano Rivera suddenly became unavailable, it would probably be a heck of a lot less controversial than having him take set-up innings.
In Oakland, fantasy players are prepared for a screwing as the A's deliberate on whether Brad Zieglar or Joey Devine should have the role. They've both been lights out in their time in the East Bay, but Devine is more of a strikeout guy and also more injury-prone. So it could go either way, and probably eventually will, just because Billy Beane and the ownership probably want to avoid paying for a counting stat more than they can exploit some other dumb team to pay for a counting stat.
And finally, in Boston, Jonathan Papelbon has the closer spot for something like the third or fourth straight year. What can I tell you, I don't feel like looking up the numbers and seeing when he got the job, because the blog's advertising revenue is not high enough for me to think about the Red Sox that much. Paps is getting paid and staying healthy despite slowly eroding numbers, so I guess it's working out for him. Moving on.
Which is all said in the manner of a set-up for the gist of this post: the market, at least in terms of how major league teams contemplate value, is moving beyond the save. Whether or not the Cubs want to admit this, Marmol is very likely to be a better pitcher than Gregg this year, and they are going to use him in the most valuable role that a bullpen has: men on base, protecting a lead, in the late innings. Which is more likely to be the seventh or the eighth, rather than the ninth, since the closer role now almost always involves working the full inning from the start.
Anyone who has seen the value of their home, 401K and employment crater in the past year knows this with painful certainty right now: market inefficiencies are eventually corrected with prejudice. Saves are, simply, a market inefficiency, one that is pointed out year after year by fantasy leaguers who spend their high picks on more stable roles and then patch or luck their way into treading water in the category. (Though, to be honest, I kind of hate the patch work, because it is a hideous timesuck in what is already a hideous timesuck. Give me three good ones that I don't have to worry about, and I'm happy, or at least, less miserable. But anyway...)
If you wanted to play in a fantasy league that best approximated real life competence, you would abandon the usual 5 x 5 category format. Typically, that is batting average or on-base average, home runs, runs, RBIs and steals for offense, and wins, saves, ERA, walks plus hits divided by innings pitched, and some measure of strikeouts, whether it's total, per nine innings or divided by walks.
Instead, you'd have *fewer* categories -- maybe just OPS for hitters (on base plus slugging percentage) and just ERA for pitchers, while keeping the position requirements to match a real team.
So you'd sweat out two catchers, back-up infielders, and the number of teams in the league being more or less equivalent to the number of teams in the real sport.
Finally, you would do a roto situation, which is to say year-long instead of week to week matchups, and you'd impose some kind of structure to limit moves, since real teams do not have the luxury of "streaming" players for small daily advantages.
There is a reason why people don't do this kind of league, of course, and that reason is that it would be about as much fun as maintaining an actuarial table. Counting stats like saves, wins, homers and RBIs are *fun*; they give you a definitive fist pump of joy from the fact that something of importance just happened, even if the importance doesn't quite match the value given to it by the system.
But I can tell you this: nature abhors a market inefficiency, and in a relentlessly competitive system like baseball, inefficiencies that cost you wins in the long term are not tolerated. We are moving with all speed to a world where the save counting statistic costs teams much more than it benefits them, and individual players, and their commission-aware agents, become aware of how they are getting hosed.
If you are Carlos Marmol, you know this, and most likely, you know it hard. If you are Brandon Morrow and the Mariners don't give you the glory job, it's going to play in your decision to take a deal to lock up your arbitration years, or just your long-term decision to stay in town. If you are Joba Chamberlain, you may be too drunk to think very hard about this, but your agent most assuredly has.
And if you are a very particular kind of geek, you are now wondering about setting up a 1x1 fantasy league for what passes for street cred in propeller-head circles.
(Please don't ask me to join it; I'm already in three leagues and more importantly, I might not ever be able to play in them if I join yours, for the fun of not worrying about saves.)
The keeper league drafted today, and longtime readers will not be surprised to learn that it was, once again, the best day of the year. The room had a good mix of new owners, phone folks and established vets, and the proceedings changed considerably from last year -- less over-the-top aggression early, and a pretty strong increase in overall knowledge.
The Keeper Auction League
C Matt Wieters BAL 9
C Pablo Sandoval SF 7
1B Chris Davis TEX 16
2B Ian Kinsler TEX 17 *
3B Jorge Cantu FLA 10
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI 34
CI Joey Votto CIN 13
MI Kazuo Matsui HOU 1
OF Shane Victorino PHL 20 *
OF Brad Hawpe COL 12 *
OF Carlos Quentin CWS 17
U Ryan Ludwick STL 5
SP Rich Harden CHN 7 *
SP Ricky Nolasoo FLA 13
SP Kevin Slowey MIN 16
SP Max Scherzer ARZ 7
RP Trevor Hoffman MIL 6 *
RP BJ Ryan TOR 5 *
P Brian Fuentes ANA 11
P Chris Carpenter STL 5
P David Price TB 5
BN Justin Upton ARZ 8
BN Skip Schumaker STL 1
BN Brandon Morrow SEA 3
Notes: * marks a keeper that I came into the draft with.
I was able to work out a strong futures/keeper role this year while still giving myself a shot at contending. Keys to my good feelings about this squad is that I was able to get the best available closer on my board (Fuentes), and a couple of strong ratio starters (Nolasco and Slowey) that fueled a second half run last year as free agents. I also didn't overspend on any of my projections, though Rollins was right at the limit.
Biggest boned play was Skip Schumaker, who wasn't available at the second base position that he's won until he, well, plays some MLB games there. I also took Wieters out of position, which cost me more than was probably necessary, but I believe in the kid, and it's not like a month or two from a bad back-up is going to make the difference in a season-long roto set up. The outfield is good and cheap, but probably not good enough, especially given the weakness of the corner. It would also be nice my closers stopped breaking down.
The Strong Friends H2H League
1. (6) Grady Sizemore
2. (19) Lance Berkman
3. (30) Carl Crawford
4. (43) Brandon Phillips
5. (54) Rafael Furcal
6. (67) Josh Beckett
7. (78) Rich Harden
8. (91) Felix Hernandez
9. (102) Jonathan Broxton
10. (115) Ryan Zimmerman
11. (126) Edinson Volquez
12. (139) Mike Gonzalez
13. (150) Carlos Delgado
14. (163) Ryan Doumit
15. (174) Justin Upton
16. (187) Mark Reynolds
17. (198) Chris Carpenter
18. (211) Howie Kendrick
19. (222) Elijah Dukes
20. (235) Brad Penny
21. (246) Yunel Escobar
Very tough league and draft, where I got poached on at a half dozen early picks. I liked Sizemore with the sixth pick here, as it's an OBA league and I think that helps him considerably. I like my pitching depth and don't think I've gotten quite enough wood here, but you never know. I'm also going to struggle in saves here, as the league was closer-crazy -- probably a more defensible play in H2H with a K/9 category, which is what this is. I need a saving surge from one of the low-ranked hitters to have any chance here.
The Weak Work H2H League
1. (3) Jose Reyes
2. (22) Chase Utley
3. (27) Manny Ramirez
4. (46) Matt Kemp
5. (51) Dan Haren
6. (70) Chris Davis
7. (75) Rich Harden
8. (94) Ryan Ludwick
9. (99) Cliff Lee
10. (118) Bobby Jenks
11. (123) Kerry Wood
12. (142) Pablo Sandoval
13. (147) Carlos Pena
14. (166) Jason Motte
15. (171) Milton Bradley
16. (190) Trevor Hoffman
17. (195) Matt Lindstrom
18. (214) Hiroki Kuroda
19. (219) Melvin Mora
20. (238) Ryan Theriot
21. (243) Coco Crisp
Just a supremely comfortable draft here, with the top five picks going almost according to script and the closer run being started by me, rather than reach-finished. Note also the presence of Sandoval, Motte and Bradley, all of which seemed like great values when I got them. This was the first league to draft, and the fact that I found useful bench hitters like Theriot and Crisp in the last two rounds made me warm all over, too.
Feel free to (a) use this to influence your own draft, or (b) roll your eyes at the idea that this counts as actually helpful content, rather than me telling you about this awesome Dungeons and Dragons session I had over the weekend...
So twice now in the past week, I've been in drafts where there's been a notable high ranked player that has slipped far behind his average draft position. And in both cases, an owner has piped up in the chat window to note this, as if this wasn't, you know, roughly akin to staring at a poker hand that he wasn't in and announcing what he folded. (Especially if you were, you know, bluffing.)
Twenty years ago, when I was playing in my first leagues with guys that were older than me, in a time that was mostly before computers, we had people who did this. It irritated the hell out of the commish, and eventually we passed a league law (the "gag" rule) prohibiting that kind of behavior. It's not like we took a guy's picks away or other punitive measures; we didn't have to, because there was, you know, a degreee of personal shame involved in violating the group dynamic.
Not to get all curmudgeonly on the world, but if you are violating the gag rule routinely or (even worse) on purpose, please learn youreself some manners. I wound up having to ream a guy in the chat window (no names, it's fine now) over this. Winning a fantasy league is difficult enough, even when the league is composed of homers and people that reach on name recognition only, without having that sort of fart in an elevator thing to deal with.
Because winning a league is not about just taking the best players; it's about taking them at the right time. In a typical draft with good competitors (and sadly, like poker, the number of fish seem to be declining over time, and replaced by nothing but fellow sharks), I'm going to have 2-3 options before a pick, and my decision isn't just about who fits my roster bet, but who I think I can get if I pass on them right there.
How you feel about your team is, basically, directly related to whether or not you got the guys you wanted at the time that you wanted them. Get poached enough, and you're going on the fantasy league equivalent of tilt. And if I lose out on a guy due to some loose talk while I'm waiting for my pick, when I don't really have a secondary option set up, I'm going to be on tilt for that pick and bone it. (Nine times out of ten.)
Life is too short to put up with that, really. Moving on...
Every year, I have the same problem with this column: when to write it. FTT's readership must assuredly includes all of the people that I compete with in my three leagues, and tipping my hand on these players is, more or less, my entire prep work for the season. Not advisable. But with two out of three leagues down already, and the last having some mitigating circumstances from being a keeper league, here goes. (Also, if I'm in a league with you, you already know that I'm the grandaddy of all liars.)
Sleepers
1) John Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins. I love the Twins staff on value for a bunch of reasons. The first is the park. People think the Metrodome is a hitters' park because of the baggie in right field and the way the ball used to jump out of the place, but look again; it's now neutral at best, and the visibility is just not something that opposing hitters can adjust to quickly, especially if they aren't experienced at playing there before. What the Twins have here is simply an unfair park for the home team, rather than an equal opportunity hitters paradise.
Second is the club behind him. Minnesota does the small market thing of stocking the team with plus defenders and a deep bullpen; you rarely get a start here from a pitcher that is going to out and out kill you. In head to head leagues where you spend most of the week hoping that your SP doesn't give you a turd sandwich, that's critical.
Finally is Baker himself. He's the closest thing to an ace that the Twins have, post-Santana, and can out and out dominate (in a quiet, polite, Midwestern way) when he's on. Combine all of that with the usual market discount that you get for shopping in the hinterlands, and even a little bit of spring training stay-away (he's been less than sharp so far), and I think you have the perfect recipe for a bargain. 141 Ks in 172 IP last year, with a 1.18 WHIP. Buy into it now, and get the 225 IP version.
2) Chris Ray, RP, Baltimore Orioles. This just in: George Sherrill wasn't anything special before last year. He's also lefthanded, which is something that rarely works in your favor in a closer battle. Ray hasn't given up anything in spring training, and the very worst that you'll get is a co-closer with the better end of the platoon. Given what the Orioles are and do, you might even luck into him getting a full-time job with a playoff contender by mid-season.
3) Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis Cardinals. The first person to not like his stuff will be the last, and with Chris Perez succumbing to injury, the next great young closer is primed to take the role. With Tony LaRussa going by the numbers and the Cardinals looking surprisingly frisky this year (hey, if Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright can stay healthy, it's not impossible to see them winning the Central), you've got a very good Rookie of the Year candidate brewing. Take advantage of the people in your league who don't pay enough attention here.
4) JJ Putz, RP, New York Mets. Is it possible that the best reliever on the Mets doesn't have the closer job? Yes, of course, and that's not even too much of a knock on K-Rod, who should be good enough in the weaker league. If K-Rod should falter and/or break, Putz would take the gig for a probable 90+ win team in a probable strong pitcher's park. Worse case scenario, you've got a steady Scott Shields type of guy who can provide good ratios in a lot of relief innings -- infinitely preferable for a late round selection than a marginal starter.
5) Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals. He's murdered the ball in camp (.371 BA), and 20+ SBs won't come any cheaper. I could see him chipping in with moderate power and batting average, and the Royals' offense could be a lot better behind him. Heck, I even like the team to not be mathematically eliminated this year until Labor Day. So what's not to love? Jump on the Coco Career Year Train.
6) Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland A's. In 2007, Ellis gave budget-base shoppers 19 homers, 76 RBIs and 9 steals with 84 runs scored. Last year, he got hurt, stank, and was also at the top of an order that had less punch than your average "fight" after a beanball. So what to expect this year, with Mssrs. Holliday and Giambi up behind him? 2007, provided he ever gets healthy. Either way, you won't have to pay much to find out.
7) Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco Giants. This is what you get when you take too long to get to the majors and play for a god-awful team; zero hype or love, even when you deliver 81 runs and 21 steals in less than a full starting job. Expect a little more from Right Said Fred this year -- maybe 90 runs, 15 homers and 25 steals, and all of that for a late late late pick. Let someone else pay the name freight for Johnny Damon and ride the anonymous Lewis for cheap steals.
8) Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington Nationals. Is he a murderous stooge? of course. Are the Natty Lights a terrible, terrible team? Mais oui. But you don't have to bring him home to Mom; all you have to do is hold your nose and pick him, then hope that he stays in his shoes long enough to give you 30/30 on the sly. He'd have done that last year if he hadn't gotten hurt, and he's still just 24 years of age. Besides, the Natty's can't be as bad as they were last year, so he could really exceed all expectations without too much trouble.
9) Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland A's. Who? A 2006 high school pick of the Billy Beaneaters, who took the A's money rather than go to Dartmouth. You'll be able to draft him as late as you like, or maybe even just stream in daily leagues, but here's what he's got going for him: 1) exceptional ground ball ratio, 2) good control, 3) excellent home park, 4) a lockdown bully that strands inherited runners and 5) an organization that knows what they are doing with young arms.
With Gio Gonzalez on the shelf and Justin Duchscherer a little iffy, he should get a chance to impress, and might do more than that; if Greg Smith and Dana Eveland could give you some goodness last year, the bar is certainly not high. And if he fails, the organization will swap him out for another guy (Gonzalez, most likely) that you'll want to roll the dice with. This is a really good place to have a young starter.
10) Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins. If you are in a K/BB league, Slowey is absolute gold due to his freaky great control; last year, in just his second year in the Show, it was over 5 to 1, and he did the same thing in his rookie year, too. He also increased his strikeout rate, and with Baker and Francisco Liriano on board, he won't be facing the other team's top pitchers. He's tasty.
Busts
1) Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles. Now, don't get me wrong: I've seen the PECOTA predictions and read the scouting reports, and I'm also convinced that he's going to be great. The question is, what year will that be? In 2009, he's going to start the season in the minors as the Orioles give the middle finger to their 43 remaining fans, just to make sure that his arbitration-ready clock doesn't start right away. If you can carry a zero on your roster in a H2H league until June, you are in a league that plays a lot different than mine.
2) Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins. Continuing my trend of Catcher Hate is Joe Mauer, who has rarely been part of a winning fantasy breakfast. Too injury prone, with less power than AJ Pyrzinski, and the handful of steals that he gives you is hardly worth the early round premium -- especially now that more OFs are running. Let someone else overpay for the relatively emplty batting average calories and season-long worries about his back; unless he gets a clean bill of health (unlikely), he's not going on any team of mine.
3) Cole Hamels, P, Philadelphia Phillies. In my keeper league, he got traded something like four times this off-season. I suspect that what happened each time is that his new owner took a look at his innings pitched for 2008, then compared that to every other year in his life and winced. No one else believes me on this, but I think he was completely spent at the close of 2008, which means you won't get nearly enough from him in 2009.
4) Max Scherzer, P, Arizona Diamondbacks. Another electric talent that's overbought for this year, mostly due to control issues. I also don't like his home park (Arizona is sneaky good for the hitter), his division (the Dodgers will be good this year, and no pitcher ever really enjoys trips to Coors), or his need to perform (with Randy Johnson gone to San Francisco, Mad Max is going to be asked to do too much, too soon). Get him in the post-hype 2010 year, when he delivers real value.
5) Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees. Perhaps the most divergent pick on the board in any draft. I've heard the argument that you're going to get 2/3rds of a year from him and that he'll be fine, but I'm not seeing it. He's not going to steal bases this year for fear of making the hip worse, and a stationary A-Rod is really not better than Aramis Ramirez -- and that's not even taking into account the fact that you'll get a full year of work out of A-Ram.
There's also this, of course. A-Fraud is 32, with the biggest contract in the history of the game, and will either return to a Yankee team that's been winning without his sideshow, or that desperately needs him to save the season. Meanwhile, he's going to be Tabloid Friend #1, and the road fan work on him is going to be fantastic -- he's just given them an incredible arsenal for heckling here. Not exactly an easy rehab, is that? Mighty good chance that he tries to do too much too soon and gets hurt worse, right?
Save yourself the stress and let someone else take him, unless it's getting to be 5th round or worse. It's just not worth it this year.
6) Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs. No denying that he's got the stuff to close, but he doesn't have the job, and after his March adventures in arson during the WBC, maybe he doesn't have the stuff right now, either. Every year, there are dozens of sure-thing relievers that just go poof, and Marmol just has that feel to me this year. Besides, in most drafts you are having to pay closer rates for a guy that, well, doesn't have the gig. Pass.
7) Rich Harden, SP, Chicago Cubs. This hurts, because he's catnip to me and probably always will be; if nothing else, I've always been fond of the guy who is either great or hurt, because he doesn't kill you.
But Harden-With-Care is absolutely stone-cold due to get taken down this year, and all of the coddling that Cap'n Lou Pinella can do isn't going to stop that. The man's just not built to throw more than 150 innings in a year, and after last year's mini-CC act, the price you'll pay for those innings is probably too great.
8) Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers. This one is almost entirely a hunch, as there's a lot to like about Ryno; he's young, in a position that doesn't get in his head defensively, and on a team that looks primed to score some runs this year. So why don't I like him? He's just unconsciously streaky, and from watching him, I just get the sense that he's the kind of guy that isn't quite comfortable being the top dog. With Prince Fielder seemingly on his way out of town (he's represented by Scott Boras, which is to say, he's represented by an agent that doesn't sign deals with non-MLB+ teams), that's the role they'll need from him.
9) Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros. Another guy coming off a career year, and on the wrong side of 32. You might not be able to get away from him, given the shallow state of top-drawer first basemen, but you're not getting a .420 OBA and 18 SBs again.
10) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox. Want to make Red Sox Fan angry? Tell him or her that Big Papi is Big Over. For everyone that thought that the winter off would bring back the quicks to the bat that he lost after the wrist problem last year, I give you his work in the WBC, which looked a heck of a lot more like Slow October Papi than the old crusher. When you weigh as much as he does, the decline is not gradual, and while he'll still keep the OBA, I'm not seeing a return to those halcyon days of yon. This is also a guy that should really start using more of the field; that defensive shift on him is paying real dividends.
One of the things that I've noticed in prepping for my various leagues, and in reading way too many scouting reports from way too many sources, is this.
I'm really not overwhelmed by the selections at outfielder this year. And considering how, historically, outfield is where you can always find a replacement level or better bat, that's not good.
Here are the top ten OFs in fantasy, according to the Yahoo rankings.
Grady Sizemore
Ryan Braun
Josh Hamilton
BJ Upton
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Quentin
Carlos Lee
Carl Crawford
Manny Ramirez
Forgive me, if some level, I'm not overwhelmed. (I know, people would really rather have Quentin, Lee or Crawford over the Man Ram, after what he did in Dodger Laundry last year? I'm not feeling that, at least not in a standard re-draft league. But that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.)
It starts with Sizemore, a very nice player who, well, just doesn't scream out #1 OF. If you play with BA instead of OBA (well, you're an idiot, but it is the default setting), you are only getting four categories instead of five, and elite but not overwhelming (i.e., sub 40) homers and steals.
Grady is still young enough to get better, and I love me the 30/30 guys, but this used to be the kind of player you would got in the second round. If he wasn't still 24 and on the upswing, he'd be Carlos Beltran -- good, but never the top guy.
Second up is Ryan Braun, the emerging third-year slugger from Milwaukee. Here, you are buying power and lots of it... but you also get it in a guy that was wildly inconsistent last year, with months where he didn't do much at all. He's a very good player, just not what you think of as the #2 OF. (He's also, of course, a failed infielder, and while that might not seem relevant right now, it will be later. Stay with me on this.)
Josh Hamilton is third, and I personally think he could easily deliver top pick value this year... but he won't steal more than a dozen bases, and he does have that history of off-season self-inflicted wounds to keep you on guard. I think he'll hit 40+ HRs this year and lead the AL in RBIs, but there is a reason that someone who is this good isn't with his first organization.
We'll move to the speed round here...
BJ Upton is fantastic, but has shown some attitude issues and an injury history, and no one really knows if he can keep it together enough to play to his talent level... Alfonso Soriano is probably on the down side now, and given his relative disinterest in taking walks, the down slope could be steep... Carlos Beltran has been very consistent and useful as a Met, but always less than spectacular, since he's usually no more than the third or fourth best player on just his own team... Carlos Quentin is on his second team and has had one really good year that ended early with injury; in this market, that makes him the #6 OF... Carlos Lee doesn't run and won't start to at his age, and plays for a terrible team that should limit his RBI opportunities... Carl Crawford is coming off a lost injury year and has never provided even average homers and RBIs... and Manny Ramirez is, well, freaking insane, 36 going on 37, and prone to all kinds of self-inflicted silliness. He can't possibly have the year he had last year, because he can't possibly continue to care this much.
Now, are there values to be had in the outfield? Of course. Will a bunch of these guys overcome their question marks and be worth their draft positions or better? Sure.
But the bigger point remains that the best and brightest baseball players, the ones with the most natural talent at hitting the tar out of the ball, are not patrolling the outfield.
Compare the best of the best (Sizemore, Braun and Hamilton) versus the top three shortstops (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins). HanRam hits with as much power as Sizmore; all three infielders steal loads more bases, and are less risky given their past record of performance. Even in a position-free counting game, you're probably going with the shortstops.
If you think that's an unfair comparison, let's try first base, where you get to go against Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. Only the fact that no first baseman contributes much in steals keeps this from going to the cornermen. And if A-Rod were starting the year healthy, the comparison with third base (others in the triumvirate there are David Wright and Evan Longoria) would also be surprisingly close to the infielders.
Now, maybe this is just because baseball has evolved, with more accurate offensive statistics and defensive statistics giving GMs more of an inclination to keep the people that have the very best tools in the place where they can make the most impact. Maybe it's just the second generation Cal Ripken Effect, where baseball players grew up dreaming of being in the infield and wouldn't take you're too big for an answer. Perhaps it's just reflecting the influx of foreign players, since so many of those star names aren't born in the USA. Maybe it's just a temporary cycle that doesn't really merit a conspiracy theory.
Or maybe, and this is the nasty little secret, baseball isn't attracting nearly the same number of elite athletes, and is just funneling what they have into the places where they will make the most difference. Because, well, and with no disrespect to Mr. Sizemore... if he's the very best that MLB has to offer in the position that takes up a third of the at bats, that's not really the baseball world I grew up in. Or yours, for that matter.
Jose Reyes. David Wright. Carlos Beltran.
They all get to deal with high outfield walls, all the way around, at their new place. Don't expect much help for home runs there.
C.C. Sabathia. Mariano Rivera. Joba Chamberlain.
These guys all have 20 feet of less foul ground behind home plate to work with in half of their games this year. You're crazy if you don't think that will add up to extra pitches and stress.
Johan Santana. Francisco Rodriguez. John Maine.
The blue pitchers will be dealing with all kinds of nooks and crannies that could lead to extra base opportunities in the outfield. It's also going to have significantly different wind patterns, given how it's, well, not in the same place as to old hole. Could play a lot of havoc with breaking pitches.
Mark Teixeria. Alex Rodriguez (assuming he ever comes back). Derek Jeter.
While the new place does have less foul ground near home plate, it does have a little more in the outfield. The place also has a very different outfield configruation and batters eye, since Monument Park has moved.
The point? I was in Northern California when Pac Bell opened. On its first day, balls flew out of the park in a 6-5 Dodgers win, with noted power hitter Kevin Elser (88 home runs in 13 years) going yard three times. The locals were convinced they had a bandbox. Of course, they didn't, and don't; Pac Bell is one of the top five pitchers' parks in the majors. In the first game at Petco, Marques Grissom, of the career .415 slugging percentage, was the only man to go deep in a 4-3 home win.
Every new stadium architect tells you that their place will play "fair", neither helping not hurting the hitter or pitcher, respectively. And they all lie, especially in the modern era, where you can make an ungodly amount of cabbage charging rich people a lot of money to sit close enough so that a line drive in the game they aren't watching could kill them.
If and when you take these guys, all you can hope is that their new yards play like their old ones, because that's the only basis for comparison you have to go to. And considering that, depending on how infested your league is with Mets and Yankee Fan, all of the guys that I just named will go in the first ten rounds. Or much, much less.
Happy drafting!
In the next 11 days, I'll be drafting three fantasy baseball teams, with the first event happening in two days. That's the head to head league that's mostly comprised of co-workers and ex co-workers (you have to love this economy, you really do), and it's the first time I've been in it. The trash talk is pretty rife, which is intriguing given that no one's even made a pick yet, and I barely know most of the people I'm competing against.
Next Monday, I'll draft another head to head league, against a bunch of folks who I've been playing against, off and on, for most of the decade. Last year, due to my schedule, I opted out, and while I'm not completely thrilled with the idea of being three leagues (it's officially one too many, unless the leagues in question vary dramatically in scope, like having an AL-only and an NL-only set-up)... well, it'll be nice to play against some of these guys again. Assuming, of course, that I actually do well. If my team stinks, it'll be nothing but misery.
And finally, there's the keeper / auction league that I commish and host, which will happen on Saturday the 28th.
Now, which league do you think has dominated my thoughts?
Yup. The keeper league. And it's not even close.
It is just, simply, a superior product. Instead of working over the same old rankings that you see everywhere, having no real emotional attachment to any particular player, I'm agonizing over whether I should keep the guys that I have on my roster. Sure, they frequently disappointed me, and the market *should* value them less this year, in case I want to try to get them back again... but hell, I kept them all year for a reason, didn't I?
And it's not just me. The league has been live with rule changes, trades and trade requests, planning and preparations for what to do with the room. I've gotten e-mails from owners who haven't been very active, wondering what I think the auction will be like this year, in terms of values. Everyone is angling for low priced protectable players, stud starting pitchers, and just about everything in between.
Oh, and the actual draft prep is also dramatically more interesting. Several MLB teams are actively planning to keep some top prospects down at the start of the year, so that the "clock" on their service time doesn't start too early. In a normal league, this more or less takes them out of the running; the disadvantage in a shallow bench head to head league is just too strong to hold on a rookie who will only be up for a portion of the season, especially in a league with daily moves.
In an auction/keeper league, they are all very much in play, and in a myriad number of ways. Do you name them early, in the hopes that you can suck out big money from the market from an owner that just has to have the hot young things? Or do you hold and hold and hold on them, hoping that you can draft them late, when the money's out of the market and you are more likely to get them for the super-low price that could mean a protectable player for years and years to come?
I know the drawback of a keeper and auction league; time on draft day. I'm fully expecting this to take up my entire day, and that's not even counting all of the prep work in advance of the event. But dammit, if you're going to commit to a massive timesuck -- and there is nothing more time-consuming in fantasy than baseball, which is why so many football guys consider taking a team to be an act of utter masochism -- then you owe it to yourself to experience the full red blood variety.
And no, we don't have any spots open, but if you want, email and get on the waiting list.
Today as I worked on the Shooter Fantasy League Rankings (three leagues this year, and yes, I need help), I turned on the Phillies-Cardinals game. Your starter today for the Fightin's is Chan Ho (Pliss) Park, the possible fifth starter and immediately derided off-season free agent acquisition, given that he'a always been an arsonist outside of Chavez Ravine.
Here's the final line for Chan Ho: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 Rs, 6 Ks. And that's a Cardinals lineup with Albert Pujols, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Khalil Greene and Colby Rasmus. He had good movement on a lot of breaking stuff, and got some hitters to flail on stuff that bounced. If he didn't have a 61 on his back, you'd be officially encouraged.
The announcers talked about how Jamie Moyer has been helping Park to have more confidence in his change-up, and how he's truly healthy now for the first time in years. He's also grown a freaky three-quarter beard, which just looks all kind of wrong on an Asian gentleman; in his post-pitch interview, I kept expecting him to speak in dubbed dialogue.
(Oh, and nice work by the local affiliate to rarely switch to commercial ion the inning breaks on the HD channel. I knew the economy was bad, but is it so bad as to have no ads at all?)
Now, in the grand scheme of things, does this matter? Probably not: Park has a career 4.34 ERA over 1846 innings for a reason, and the Phils will be his fifth team in the last five years. It's one thing to pitch well in a more or less meaningless preseason game in Clearwater, Florida; it's an entirely different matter when the home crowd is surly and the ball is carrying well to left.
But, well, less of Kyle Kendrick is an almost unquestioned benefit, and it's not as if Park doesn't have the talent and stuff to be an above-average fifth starter and overall asset. If I were drafting in an NL-only deep league, he might be worth a last-round grab. And that, in a nutshell, is why you should never watch spring training games while you are making your rankings...
The awkwardness of certain sports expressions is one of those chicken-egg moments. Were our sports always laced with codewords for various subcultures, or have those subcultures simply tried to become more mainstream by co-opting sports phrases?
Well, far be it for me to answer these questions of metaphysical linguistics, especially when more and more of you (every day) are looking for some help in putting your league mates off their game.
Besides, let's face it... Is there really a limit that you aren't prepared to go to for league supremacy? If it puts your fellow league mates off their oats, shake your naming moneymaker, girlfriend. (As always, these should fit in Yahoo leagues.)
Needle Buddies
Designated Hitters
Albert's Belle Boys
Lefty Specialists
Platoon Pals
Utility Players
Bush League Call Up
Head First
Warning Tracks
Juiced Bats
Rafael's Palmeiro
Turning Two
Hot Corners
Loaded Bullpen
Power and Speed
Splash Hits
3 True Outcomes
Double Moves
Clutch Performers
Because I am a big whore to the search engine traffic. As always, these should fit in the standard Yahoo naming space. (Today's, by the way, was inspired by an old league-mate who actually did call his team the Carpet Crawlers, mostly because he was that much of a Peter Gabriel fan. Get done with your freaky spermy self, though I think the original version was a better version. Besides, this video doesn't even have a longhaired geek getting burned at the stake, so how could can it be?)
South Side Browns
Taco Eaters
Old Town Teabaggers
Fightin' Sodomites
Carpet Crawlers
Donkey Punchers
Mustache Waxers (narrowly beating out the Mustache Riders)
Spunky Brewsters
Scat Attack
Water Sportsmen
Because I am a big whore to the search engine traffic. As always, these should fit in the standard Yahoo naming space.
The Other 103
Roiddog Millionaires
Beat You Like Rihanna
Octuplets Plus One
Joe The Owner
Vast Stimulus Package
The New Puppy
Madoff Pyramids
NO! NO! DON'T SHUT...
Republican Response
Hey, one of the best days of my year -- Live Draft Day -- is coming up, and as always, I'm looking to bring it up a notch. Last year's had dry ice smoke, a championship belt, and entrance music for every owner, so the bar is already pretty high... but dammit, that's why I run the best damned league in the world. (Or, well, at least, my world.)
If you're ready to make the day more memorable, feel free to bring in any of these sure-fire strategies.
10) Hire King Kong Bundy. According to his site, he's available as either a wrestler or a comic (and if one believes his MySpace page, he's a Philly guy - shocking!).
Imagine the thrill that your league mates will have when their picks are insulted by a real live pro wrestling superstar, especially one that is likely to hit you with a steel chair if you don't laugh at his jokes. Just make sure you hire a second, emergency back-up wrestler for the run-in if things go badly.
9) Strippers. This one's obvious but easy, and particularly effective as a counter to the guy that always brings porn. It can be pricey, but what's money compared to mamm... err, memories?
8) Spike the food and booze. Go creative here. Laxatives or pot in the brownies, extra liquor in the punch, or good old acid in the salsa. It's why they call it gambling, folks.
7) Go upper tank. My old rock band had a guitarist that used to do this at the end of every long-term session in any recording studio that we worked in. It wasn't one of his more endearing traits. But hey, you want to win, right?
6) Competitive eating. Works best with ribs or some other food where you've got visible remnants of your gluttony. If your opponent has the meat sweats and no feeling in their left side by Hour 2, you've won!
5) Owner Strife. Got co-owners who are reaching that divorce stage? Push them along with a well-timed whisper campaign. Got a league that's antsy about personal conflict? Convince the co-owners to stage a fight -- the more over the top the better, for the fear/hope that it will turn real halfway through -- that will have the shy violets in your league staring at their shoes in embarrassment.
If you can get thrown dishes (preferably not yours), that has to mean your sleeper will slip into the late going.
4) Midgets. If dumb guy television (and, well, my own unfortunate life of being shorter than Muggsy Bogues) has taught me anything, it's that guys will give way too much attention to the little people. Hire one to come by and help with the draft, or just to stand in the corner looking ominous, like they are an extra in a David Lynch movie.
And if they can dance around a miniature Stonehenge, so much the better.
3) Pets. Know a man with a snake, and have no snake phobias of your own? It's time to draft with that bad boy on your shoulders. Can you stand the smell of feral ferrets? Drop on by the pet store and bring a few of your new babies with you. Ready to put on an eyepatch, have some crap everywhere bird on your shoulder, and scream Arr! a lot as the fantasy pirate? Ye hearties, man!
Just remember, you tried to leave your pet home, but that darn wife/ girlfriend/ cellmate wouldn't stand for it. Look, he's so cute! He likes you! Why don't you hold him for an hour or two while I draft?
2) Sideshow. Can you draft while on a rented bucking bronco machine? More importantly, can you possibly avoid making a draft pick while on a rented bucking bronco machine? How about your skills in a never-ending Pop-A-Shot battle, preferably with some neighborhood kid who isn't actually in the draft, and has been paid to egg you on by the commish for the entire draft while the rest of the league drops magnets on your laptop?
It's all fair in love, war, and fantasy nerding.
1) Midget Strippers. The nuclear winter of draft distraction. Use at your moral peril, because once you've gone to the Midget Stripper option, nothing else will compare. (And no, the Shooter Wife isn't available.)
This week, I saw my first place and surging fantasy basketball team take the following hits:
> Manu Ginobili injury. Now, sure, Manu gets hurt by people with sour looks on their faces. But having already waited out the first few months of the year without him, I was really hoping to get four months of health. But no... ankle, not the one that was operated on, out for weeks or more. Did I mention that my team is weakest in three-pointers? Oh, yeah, there's also that.
> Andre Miller, owner of the longest current games played streak in the NBA, goes down in the third quarter at home against Denver. Which caused my actual basketball team to lose, and made me worry that he was going to be out longer than that. He wasn't, thankfully, but still a toll on the old brainpan.
> Jermaine O'Neal gets traded, then Yahoo gives him the dreaded red cross of injury. Turns out to be nothing, and he played well tonight (as the Heat beat the Sixers, grr), but it's Jermaine O'Neal. He makes Yao Ming look like Moses Malone.
> And then the big domino drops... Amare Stoudemire, out for the rest of the regular season with a retina problem. And here's the really fun part -- he's said to have suffered the injury in THE FIRST QUARTER of his game against the Clippers, a game in which he played 35 minutes, shot 15 for 20 from the floor, went 12 of 13 from the line, and scored 42 points with 11 boards. Um, how the hell does he score the second most points of any game this year, with 36 freaking minutes, and the next *DAY* he's got a season-ending retina injury?
As you might be able to tell, I'm bent. I'm also down heavy this week with a second place and falling team. But at least I got a list out of it!
12. Retirement Musing. Hey, professional athletes -- want to know when you should retire? When the team freaking fires you, and no one else wants you around. Not a minute before. We don't care about you Going Out On Top, or Spending More Time With Your Family, or any other cockamamie story you want to pitch us. You play until they tear the uniform off you, and you don't say a word about any other life plan you might have until the retirement press conference.
Oh, and that press conference? Feel free to skip it. Go out with a measure of mystique if you had a real career, or just go away if you didn't. If people still care in a few years, show up at a memorabilia show and cash in, or go write your memoirs. But do not, under penalty of the revocation of your manhood, dither on going away when you make more in a year than 99% of the paying public might make in a decade (or, if you're a star, a lifetime).
Because this back and forth nonsense that causes people to make panic trades and go into off-seasons with way too much uncertainty in their lives? It's Just Wrong, and really unnecessary. Moving on...
11. Big Contract. Aw, isn't that nice? Your player just got paid. Now, he's happy, he's relaxed, and he's about to take his foot off the gas pedal and give back that 10 to 20% boost that made him a winner for you. About the only good thing about this is that dumb owners will still trade for the guy. (Or he's that rare type he doesn't get changed by the money. Good luck with either of those.)
10. Coach Change. This one isn't always brutal, but there's the strong possibility that Things Will Change Now, and probably not for the better. Who cares if the team has dropped 12 out of the last 15? I'm getting numbers here, dammit. Respect my season! It's far more competitive and interesting than yours!
9. Bad Interview. Ready to endure any number of the exact same joke? Then you are ready for the Bad Interview fantasy player moment. Perhaps Allen Iverson is more tired of hearing the "Practice?" routine than his owners, but... probably not.
8. Teammate Move. Nothing better than having a guy whose value is dependent on another player... and then having that other player get moved. This is especially big in sports like basketball or hockey, but it also happens in baseball (oh, joy! My big hitter is going to get a lot of walks!). You also get the fun of knowing that your player was just a tool, and that his old numbers aren't coming back. Even better, so does everyone else.
7. In-Game Injury. If you're like me, I'm sorry. But you don't really get to watch enough live sports, because, well, you've got a family, life, commute, etc. So what you really don't want is to finally be settling down with a game, only to see your guy limping off. This one is especially fun if you've got a guy with a long injury history staggering off like Fred Sanford. (Can you tell I own Kurt Warner in a keeper league? I think you can.)
6. Reality Show. Oh, this always goes well, doesn't it? Just have a camera crew follow your guy around, seeing his wacky adventures and watching him amp up the insanity. This never precedes a bad year / snakebit injury / fast decline. Plus, all of the other guys in your league won't be able to stomach dealing for him.
5. Roid Hell. A month ago, I was mulling over retaining Alex Rodriguez in my keeper league. With Mark Teixiera on board, a better starting pitching staff that should mean less bench time in blowouts, and probable bounce-back years for a bunch of Yankee regulars, he was tempting, even at age 32. It's not like there are a huge number of third basemen that can give you 40 homers and 20 steals.
And then, well, this.
He might still have a big year, but probably not for my team, just to avoid wanting to defend him anymore.
Now, imagine how much fun this would be if I actually had A-Roid for a decent price, or had traded for him in a non-contract keeper league, etc., etc. Day after day of the story that wouldn't die, in the worst month of the year for sports stories to go away, the Chinese water torture of fandom.
It almost makes you feel bad for Yankee Fan. (Well, no.)
4. Blogger Buzz. Kind of like Roid Hell, but with the added fun of hardcore salaciousness and hate for Blogfrica. The Buzz kill is made much worse by the slow forwarding hell of links from your fellow owners, combined with the myriad number of fast Photoshops that connect the dots of whatever awful thing your guy is accused of doing.
And when there's smoke, there's usually fire... and gerbils, and teenaged girls, and a lot of other things that you'd rather not deal with in your draft prep.
3. Trade Value Death. Nothing quite like making the savvy draft pick or free agent pickup, then seeing it all go to hell at the trade deadline.
Consider the plight of the owners of John Salmons, a swingman for the Sacramento Kings. They actually had to pay attention to the Kings this year, which is bad enough, but at least they were getting good numbers for their trouble... and then their guy gets moved to the Chicago Bulls at the deadline, where he gets to split time with a half dozen other swingmen.
Even better is the fact that since they traded for him, you can't really cut him, because if you do... he'll get the same minutes for someone else. All while having no trade value. What fun!
2. Off-Court Injury. See the Stoudemire injury in the open. The only way this could be better is if Amare had caused the retina problem himself, preferably in something that shows up in #4. (How? See Hutchense, Michael. Or the number of retina injuries that happen from bungee jumping. I could go on.)
1. Actual Arrest. This one's rare but wonderful, as you get to feel like you're taking the perp walk with the guy. It's even better if you really love the guy, own the jersey, root for the team, and get more or less scarred for life.
But look at the bright side, Giant Fan who owned Plex Burress: you can probably parlay this into an appearance on your local news, and the yummy tears-licking page views from all of those opposing team fans...
Well, folks, I didn't want to have to go here, in the worst week of the year for sports blogging. (And dear Lord in heaven, yes, this is the worst -- it's cold and bitter January, no one ever enjoys the Super Bowl bye week, I can't convince you of the merits of the Association, baseball is months and months away, and there's literally nothing going on outside of the Big 3 Sports to save us from the Tee Dee Umm. Seriously, all of the other unpopular bloggers are going to Inauguration coverage. But I digress.)
The simple fact is that despite multiple high traffic links in January (we're having our second best traffic month in a year, thanks to Actually Popular Sites), the goodwill of other bloggers who have emailed me, and the explosion of advertising site revenue -- from none to, well, some! -- I have to tell the truth.
No One Believes In Us.
Now, don't tell me I'm performing a completely transparent and obvious motivational ploy that started as Tired and has now gone all the way to Exhausted. I'm serious. I see the way you people use the site, and how no one thinks we can keep delivering the goods without an Eagles playoff run to inspire us. I've heard the haters talk about how the only thing that drive site traffic numbers is hacky lists. I've noticed how few of you wear the Garment of Greatness in your daily lives, how catch-phrase worthy moments like calling ESPN "The World Wide Lemur" and fans of a specific team as if they were all the same guy (Eagle Fan, Cowboy Fan, etc.) hasn't been attributed with full royalties to this here site.
Frankly, it makes me sick. But that's OK, because we're just going to use that as the Fire to Get Better.
So our plan is to use that blatant disrespect in the near future to:
> Jump on the Steelers Bandwagon in a way that will make even their most regrettable fans wince, and not just because I'm 4-6 in my playoff picks, carry 30+ years of Bad Eagles Karma, and am specifically doubting the power of Kurt Warner's God
> Use a ridiculous amount of fantasy baseball prep work to ruin my own draft and improve yours
> Provide at least one, and maybe even two, NHL pieces for the both of you that like that sort of thing
> Cover the Brett Favre Deathwatch as we move into its final, most thrilling decade
> Blogroll and beg for links like a motivated independent contractor working with the ODB
So come one, come all, come often, send links, and watch us prove all of the doubters wrong. We relish the opportunity to become the biggest and bestus site in all of Blogfrica, and when that happens... well, some of you will probably still refuse to give us the props we feel we deserve. You're just like that, you unnamed and mostly nonexistent people. (Yes, you are. Might as well just admit it.)
All I know is that when I look into the eyes of everyone in this clubhouse, these are the people I choose to go to blog with. Now, if you all will excuse us, we're going to scream in each other's faces, pound our fists on each other's equipment (no, it's *so not* what you are thinking), smash our skulls into the lockers and, Dammit, come out writing.
Or, um, well, not.
From the league front page: "The Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball season ended with the games played on Sunday, September 28th. Statistics from the Tigers vs. White Sox game on Monday, September 29th, will NOT count in fantasy scoring."
Now, I'm not in any H2H championship, but if I were... well, um, today's game between the White Sox and Tigers is in the regular season. Why is it unique among all games played in MLB this year to not count?
If you own Josh Hamilton or Rich Harden, now is the time to trade them. (I hear Hamilton hits lots of home runs in a pointless exhibition yesterday, and we all know what that did for Bobby Abreu.)
And speaking as a Harden owner, I'm not going to, mostly because I hate trading, and as an A's fan, I'm not sure how to live in a world where the sudden and tragic loss of Harden doesn't ruin my season. Where would we be without Tradition?
Today, my family celebrated my upcoming birthday (it's Tuesday, and I turn neatly older than every professional athlete, thanks for asking).
Because the Shooter Wife and Mom are cooler than your Wife and Mom, I'm getting the new PS3 and Grand Theft Auto 4, which means that the site will more or less cease operations in another ten days, as I get my thug on. (I keed. But seriously, guest authors welcome.)
Meanwhile in my fantasy league, my previously resurgent team started June with...
1) David Ortiz getting an MRI
2) Nick Blackburn taking a shot off the face from Bobby Abreu (both of them on my team), knocking him out a game where he was up 3-1 and 2 outs from locking down a win
3) BJ Ryan, JJ Putz and Trevor Hoffman all having save opportunities... and all getting the snot beaten out of them
4) Falling from second to third and losing three points in ratios (hard to do in a roto league with nearly 500 innings in the books)
It's a long season. And tonight, that's not really a comfort.
