Why You Don't Pay For Saves

Every year in every fantasy league, some guy overpays for saves, and almost always winds up losing his league over it. Fantasy analysts say it, but especially in keeper leagues, it's hard to get away from it: don't pay for saves. And yet, since you have to have them in all likelihood to win your league, you wind up, well, paying for saves.

While all of the selected numbers presented below are just for the first week of course, they're still fairly educational. The following eight closers were all reasonably well regarded before the draft as owning their jobs, in decent situations, and in home parks that weren't bandboxes. You wouldn't want to stake your life on any of them being absolute lockdown options, but if you had them for not so much, you'd feel OK about your team.

Or, well, not.

Brandon Morrow -- 2 saves, 10.13 ERA, 1.88 WHIP.

Brian Fuentes -- 2 saves, 12.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP.

Kevin Gregg -- 1 save, 13.50 ERA, 3.50 WHIP.

B.J Ryan - 0 saves, 21.60 ERA, 4.20 WHIP.

Troy Percival - 1 save, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP.

Kerry Wood -- 0 saves, 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP.

Jason Motte - 0 saves, 15.43 WHIP, 3.00 WHIP.

Oh, and I own(ed) over half of this list in various leagues, which explains why I'm noticing this with, well, some enhanced interest.

The lesson, as always: I'm an idiot.

The A's Open Without Steam

When I was in that scorched earth middle ground before becoming a college graduate, it really wasn't a good time. College for me was like a prison work-release program, because I was paying my own way with multiple jobs and escalating debt at a school (Syracuse) that kept raising the tuition rates to the point of scandal (up over 30% in my three years there).

A good chunk of the school are composed of very wealthy kids, as it's kind of the upstate party school for NYC and Long Island swells. I lived alone, didn't date (no time, no money, no car, no hope), and basically gritted my teeth through 33 months and 2 degrees. I'm not in touch with anyone from those days, and I wound up getting a newspaper journalism degree just in time for the Bush The Elder Recession. Probably for the best, given what's happened to newspapers since then.

Don't worry, this is all going somewhere sports-related.

The Shooter Mom goes all out for holidays. Halloweens get elaborate themed decorations. Christmas was always a big deal, even if the year was thin. And when her kids got old enough, she'd ask them what they wanted a couple of months before the event, just long enough so that you more or less forgot about what you asked for, and were thrilled when you got it. She's great at this.

One year during this time frame, she asked me what I wanted for Christmas. Seized with a dull work ethic and no better ideas, I asked for interviewing clothes. Ties, Suits. A briefcase. An iron and ironing board. While hoping, in the back of my heart and not nearly out loud enough, for a guitar, because I was deep enough into music to want to try my hand at it.

Come Christmas morning, I dutifully unwrapped my presents and realized what a colossal mistake I had made, to have drained the fun out of Christmas along with every other day of the year. Everything was exactly what I had asked for, and I still own the briefcase, 20+ years later. And peaking out at the back of the presents, there to possibly save me from the unrelenting decades of Not Fun that were to come, was a big present. A suspiciously large, rectangular but also mildly triangle-shaped box... the guitar! YES!

It was, of course, the ironing board. (The Shooter Brother, for the record, got me a Les Paul the next year.)

Which is more or less how I felt last night as I watched my all-new re-tooled now with actual offensive players Oakland A's look like the same old weak swingers as the past few years, in an Opening Day loss to the Angels and the ever-dominant Joe Saunders. If your fantasy baseball team is hurting for pitching, just start streaming against the A's now, and thank me later.

You got the sensible shoes of Jason Giambi not being able to catch up to anything fast. The briefcase of Matt Holiday looking more or less out of place with the other pieces. The ironing board of Nomar Garciaparra not catching the ball at first base, which is to say, not being able to man a defensive position that his bat couldn't carry five years ago, when he had a pulse. And the nice enough ties of starting pitching of Dallas Braden giving up a laser bomb to Howie Kendrick, who might escape the label of Failed Prospect if he only got to play Oakland enough.

So, um, woo, baseball's back. Yay. Maybe my fantasy teams won't stink, because land a'goshen, it really looks like my real one will. Again. And even if it doesn't, the ownership will pull the chutes in June and send out anyone of worth.

Now, if you don't mind, I've got some laundry to do. And maybe these ties can hold my body weight...

A quick word on the New Year

Probably the lamest holiday of the year, kids. It's Amateur Night for drunks, which makes the bars packed and the roads scary. It's utterly arbitrary, given the nature of time, and about as emotionally meaningful as Arbor Day. If you miss it, you feel bad until you get over it, which shouldn't take long, really. In all likelihood, you've already blown most of your money on earlier and better holidays, and unless you're into college football or parades, there really isn't much to say for it.

So, um, happy Thursday, folks. And if you must get into the nature of time, I'm hoping that it's more like the time mentioned above...

Fantasy Hell #1

My good Work League Team went down to ignoble defeat today. It was just Not Meant To Be. Drew Brees betrayed me by giving the damned ball to Pierre Thomas. Reggie Wayne continued to be the best-regarded empty threat in fantasy play this year; I'd have been better off starting #3 WR Anthony Gonzalez instead of him today. Greg Jennings, one of the best five WRs in football, made all of one big play today. Whoop de damn do. Derrick Ward took advantage of the Brandon Jacobs injury to have one of his worst games of the year, along with the rest of the Giants. Marion Barber can no longer be considered tough. Even on the little moments, I got screwed. The Saints chose to go for two with a quarter to play and up five, rather than give me the extra point from kicker du jour Garret Hartley. Irritating. If not for Steve Slaton, I'd have saved myself four hours of very limited suspense.

But realistically, I knew I was hosed as soon as Pierre Freaking Thomas scored. He wound up with 25 points today, and that was, oh, about 20 more than I was hoping for. The coup de grace came when Shaun Hill swung a ball in the flat to Frank Gore just before the half in the Jets-Niners game; that was, as they say, all she wrote.

Oh well. It's not like the Shooter Kids *need* any more toys. Or heat in the house. Put on more layers, you parasites!

The only moment of Lions-Titans that needs to be remembered

At 3:46 pm, with a minute left in what turns out to be the Lions' worst-ever Thanksgiving loss -- and man, that takes some work, really -- Phil Simms told the national television audience that coming to Detroit every year on the holiday was "still fun."

Um, for who?

Honestly, NFL, this is a tradition that needs to be stopped. There is no reason to subject the world to the Lions as the only pro football game that can be viewed at this time. They are horrible. They have nearly always been horrible. They will continue to be horrible. They should never be shown to anyone but their fans and the fans of the opposing team.

And if they have to continue to be on the holiday, at least put them on NFLN at night, which is where terrible games belong.

Epic Drop: Top 10 Sports Atoners

Your list today is Yom Kippur themed, which means it will provide you with a day-long need to eat no food, do no work, and take an account of the last 12 months of your worst moments. Share and enjoy!

Disgust

Y'know, folks, there are days when filling the bloghole is just no fun. Mostly, those days involve a dispiriting Eagles loss. Seven quick points from a day to forget...

> Brian Westbrook's not healthy, or if he is, he's just not that healthy anymore. On several occasions, especially in the second half, he wasn't able to move the chains on plays he usually makes, with the most notable case being where the aged London Fletcher caught him in the flat from behind. Once again, you see how much the offense needs Westbrook to be good; without him, there is no margin for error, especially on a day when the wideouts are dropping balls.

> The really discouraging point about today's game was the way the defensive line got pushed around. I could cite a lot of stats here -- 203 yards on the ground for the Redskins, a clear win in time of possession, the inability to force a punt in the last seven minutes of the game, after cutting the lead to six -- but here's the quick and easy takeaway -- 30 pass attempts for the visitors, one sack. I don't remember it, either. When you can't stop the run, you aren't a football team.

> The loss drops the Eagles to 2-3 and in serious trouble in the East, with two of the losses in the divison, and the rest of the division looking very sound indeed. The NFC East plays the NFC West this year, and the AFC North -- which means, really, that falling behind in the division most likely means that the only good chance you have for gaining ground is head to head. Unless they somehow go 4-0 in their remaining division games, it's getting hard to see how they are a playoff team.

> If you are looking for encouragement -- and I don't know why -- Reggie Brown looked good today, which was useful, given how the Redskins were determined to take DeSean Jackson out of the mix. If and when Kevin Curtis comes back, the team has a lot of weapons on the outside. Maybe some of them even good.

> Once again, David Akers misses from distance, and the other team makes all of their long distance shots. That never gets old.

> Is this the year where the team just can't score when they are inside the opponent's 2-yard-line? Shane Andrews, Eagles Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

> Oh, and just to add to my misery, I got to hear about what a wonderful game it was from Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, and how multiple penalties that seemed as sure as hell like pass interference to me, well, weren't. My hate of Fox isn't just limited to their "News" department, folks.

Next week, at San Francisco. I'm expecting a bounce-back, but then again, I was expecting that this week, too.

Yahoo Asks For A Lawsuit (In Sports, Not Business)

From the league front page: "The Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball season ended with the games played on Sunday, September 28th. Statistics from the Tigers vs. White Sox game on Monday, September 29th, will NOT count in fantasy scoring."

Now, I'm not in any H2H championship, but if I were... well, um, today's game between the White Sox and Tigers is in the regular season. Why is it unique among all games played in MLB this year to not count?

How To Celebrate A Touchdown

College football officiating covered itself in glory this weekend, as the ending of the Washington-BYU game was compromised by the decision of the refs to give an unsportsmanlinke conduct call for this play. Please view, if you haven't seen it already.



Washington missed the subsequent 35-yard extra point, and lost the game.

Now, the easy thing to do would be to chastise the refs for making what seems to be, at best, a ridiculous call that put them square in the crosshairs of extreme criticism, but I'm not going there. Instead, I'd like to make the following suggestion for Washington's coach, to implement for the rest of his team's ruined season.

Teach your players to do the following in the event of future touchdowns. The player that scored will, upon seeing the ref signal touchdown, cease running and drop to one knee, as if receiving communion. With trembling hands in the face of the great and awesome power that is some bloated 50-year-old white guy on his weekend job, he will raise the football up to waist level, while keeping his eyes firmly fixed on the ground.

When the referee has relieved the scoring player of the football, he will rise to both feet, keeping his eyes on the ground, and proceed at a light jog to the sideline. When he gets to the sideline, he will be allowed, if he chooses to, to accept a subdued handshake (or, perhaps, one small consoling pat on the back to help deal with the knowledge that he is one touchdown closer to the end of his career). The offensive unit can also engage in a moment of group prayer, to ask the Lord for forgiveness for their sinful thoughts of happiness when a touchdown is scored.

If this is all too elaborate, the offensive player can also just drop the ball and walk off the field angrily.

I'm sure that will be much more fun for everyone to watch, and we'll all get back to what we're really watching football for -- an emotion-free exercise in which everyone behaves exactly the same.

Can I get a whispered amen? amen.

Badly Beaten

Welcome to Atlantic City, and "Badly Beaten," Spiked TV's latest effort to fill the nation's airhole with poker coverage. Tonight, we're proud to give you live hidden camera footage of random amateurs attempting to play poker with high-larious consequences. Let's get to the action!

Biff Biffley: Tonight, we've got Shooter, a man that's held his own in a monthly basement games with friends for six months. He's walking into a casino poker room for the first time this weekend, after getting crushed at the blackjack tables. We're in for some good fun tonight, aren't we Norman?

Norman Chad: We certainly are, Biff. Not only have we stacked the deck to make sure that when Shooter folds any kind of hand it will appear on the flop, we've also given all of the other player access to his hole cards via special monitors in their cup holders. Finally, his chair has been specially wired to give us his vital medical signs. This is in addition to his usual tell, which is looking pissed off at crap hands, means we're in for hours of stepping on a rake fun!

Biff: To add to the torture, we're going to give Shooter something to play every 15 hands. We're up to that now, and he's got nine-ten clubs as his hole cards.

Chad: And he's in for the flop! Let's look at those vitals now, Biff. You see, he's so beaten down, there's barely any movement in his pulse or blood pressure. He's beaten before he even gets cards!

Biff: Seven players for the flop, bringing the pot up to a robust $14. Shooter's vitals have picked up beyond comatose, Chad. Isn't that charming -- he has hope of actually making some money on this hand.

Chad: It's like Charlie Brown with the football with this guy, Biff. You've got to respect that... all the way to the bank.

Biff: The flop is the nine of spades, the ten of hearts, and the queen of clubs. That gives Shooter the only community pairs, a chance at a flush and a straight, and his first scent of hope at getting some of his money back. How are his vitals, Chad!

Chad: Almost up to a hospital patient, Biff. With cancer in three places.

Biff: Shooter has last action, and since this is a limit game, nearly every hand goes to the river and beyond, since it's been pretty cheap to see the cards -- every other hand has at least gone to the turn tonight. And that's six players checking. Will Shooter bet and watch them all drop, or check and see more cards that will eventually kill him?

Chad: Any sane man would bet here and hope that some money would follow him in. Shooter's puzzling it out for a few seconds... oh, isn't that adorable, Biff! He's trying to actually make the other players think he has bad cards!

Biff: Nice work on the part of the other players from not busting out laughing as they look at Shooter's hole cards on the small monitors we've placed in their cup holders. Shooter finally bets, and... everyone else folds, in a new record time of 3.5 seconds. That's even faster than the last time he had cards, Norman.

Chad: Right you are, Biff. But Shooter's the big winner with a $12 profit from his first good hand in two hours. And the best part is... he's actually pleased to have won the $12. God, I love this kid. Let's take him out back and rape him after the show. Whaddya say?

Biff: Of course, Norman. You want to take him from in front or behind?

Chad: Well, I'm uglier than you, with more visible lesions. I'm going topside.

Biff: Works for me. After these hands, his ass is going to be so well-lubricated, it'll be like hitting an oil slick.

Chad: But just for you, Biff, thanks to your Humiliation brand sandpaper condoms. Remember folks, for the kind of top-shelf reaming they'll remember, look for the label that says Humiliation Brand sandpaper condoms!

Biff: And that's all the time we've got tonight on "Badly Beaten." See you again in three weeks, when Shooter returns to Atlantic City with all of his friends!

Pulling A Daunte

I would like to, in a similar moment at age 39, announce my retirement from the NFL.

And MLB.

Also, the NBA.

It's a tough day for me. Please excuse me if I start tearing up.

But kudos, Daunte, for taking your ball and going home... when you were already home. Quitting when no one will hire you will always be known as Pulling A Culpepper from now on, taking the proud mantle from Derek "Operation Shutdown" Bell.

Thank you, and good night. I need to wrap this post up before Brett Favre calls me to tell me to come back...

Gordo, We Hardly Knew Ye

Gordon Giricek, the semi-warm body that the Sixers got in the Kyle Korver salary dump who was last seen providing bad bench minutes for Phoenix in their first round loss to the Spurs, goes to Fenerbahce, the top team in Turkey. He'll make twice what the Spurs were looking to pay him to warm their bench.

Unlike many of the Euro exports, I'm not going to decry the loss of Gordon; he flat out stinks on ice. He's one of those classic oversized Euro swingmen that look good when they line up an open three, who you can take off the dribble simply by caring about it. The fact that he was passed around by teams faster than a Japanese condom tells you all you need to know; he won't be missed. (Though, of course, he may be back.)

Epic Drop: Top 12 Reasons Why The Bears Went WIth Orton Over Grossman

Your list is here, and as a blogger and a football fan, I'm kind of pissed off about it. We don't need another low margin, low talent, low excitement game manager. If you're going to lose -- and dear God, Bears Fan, you are going to lose, in double figures and more -- why not go down with someone who is clearly the cause of all of your woes, rather than a guy who is just going to be a passenger on that bus?

It's kind of like how the NFL has evolved away from wacky coaches like Jerry Glanville and Sam Wyche. Dammit, I demand my losing teams to be more entertaining than this!

And finally, this. By dooming Rex to the ashcan of history, we dishonor the memory of ex-Dolphins quarterback David Woodley, who (and this is true, at least according to Wikipedia) died from complications of liver and kidney failure following a history of alcohol abuse. Dammit, Lovie Smith, why are you denying Woodley his due as the worst quarterback in the history of the Super Bowl? He needed that!

Look Out Below

Hey, Billy Beane, is it still Business as Usual time in Oakland when you trade Rich Harden for a bag of crap? Because with yesterday's feebling at the hands of AJ Burnett and those always mediocre Toronto Blue Jays, your Business As Usual collection of Minimum Payday Only talent has now dropped 10 in a row to fall to 53-61 on the year. Only the continued putridity of the Mariners is keeping you out of the cellar. But that's OK, because this is all according to plan, right?

I shouldn't be so hard. I mean, Brad Ziegler's still throwing zeros for cheap, unlike Huston Street, who has blown more saves than anyone in the AL and wasn't dealt at the deadline for reasons I can't quite fathom. The offense is paced by the breathtaking contributions of a younger version of Jason Kendall (Kurt Suzuki, who the East Bay will enjoy for another whopping two years until his contract makes him untenable), and the always amusing Jack Cust, whose .808 OPS is somewhat undercut by the fact that only about a third of his at-bats end up requiring anyone but the pitcher and catcher. (Jack swings, misses, walks or goes yard. It's exciting!) Oh, and trade chip Matt Murton is certainly making everyone forget about Harden with his .262 OPS. Well, at least Harden as a hitter.

How about Sean Gallagher, the talented young arm they got back from the Cubs? Well, the good news is that he's striking out a man an inning. The bad news is he's nearly walking that many, too, and when you combine that with the had to cool off Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, it means the bullpen's getting exposed now. Toss Street and his 6 HRs in 49 IP (ouch) to the mix -- seriously, has anyone in town trusted him since the ALCS ending walk-off homer to Magglio Ordonez? -- and you've got...

Well, a bargain basement team, bereft of interesting offensive talent, that's dropped 10 games in a row and is going to find it's true level at 70 wins for the year. If we're lucky. But hey, that's all OK, because this is Business as Usual!

Al Czervik-Esque

So it turns out that the start in which I saw Vincente Padilla get shelled in Baltimore was... the last one he made before going on the disabled list. Funny how that works out, isn't it?

Is it a sign that I'm becoming old and cynical that I see these injuries as being remarkably timed to ineffective work, since Ow My Arm plays a lot better to an established player than Go The Hell To The Minors, You Stink?

Of course, when you disable the pitcher, you do get to avoid the Jeff Francoeur Betrayal Quote... and you also get to make everyone wonder why Dontrelle Willis had to go to the minors first, then get the tendinitis treatment on his knee. Feel free to start the countdown on a comment about race here...

He can do that?

This is Robinson Cano, Yankee second baseman and proud member of my fantasy team, scoring a run.

You'd think this kind of thing wouldn't be worthy of physical evidence, especially as he did this 93 times last year. He's also just 25 and presumably still getting better, plays for the loaded Yankee offense, etc., etc.

Tonight in Tampa, Cano did something unprecedented for 2008: he scored a run. Standing up, as a matter of fact, after providing what eventually proved to be the game-winning hit with his first home run of the season. (It came off noted taser enthusiast Al Reyes, who, it may be safely said, is not having a particularly good week.)

Such is my happiness for Cano's brief flash of competence, you are all getting to share in it. We Are Celebrating Good Times, Indeed!

"These Boston People Are Awful"

(Song is NSFW, but there's never been a clearer approximation of MLB+ than "Big Bank take Little Bank.")



Susan Slusser is a solid beat reporter for the Chronicle, and she covers the A's, who are in Japan for their games against the Red Sox. Guess what? Oakland's getting done... with no Vaseline.

Reporters thronged to a news conference with Boston brass and players, but the majority cleared out when the A's arrived. Boston's exhibition games were packed and received top billing; the A's drew less than half the fans. Oakland drew the short stick of playing the late exhibition game Saturday night and then the noon exhibition the following day; the Red Sox had the more leisurely schedule.

Seriously, MLB? Why not follow the lead of college football, and schedule more home games for the MLB+ teams?

Oh, wait. Actually, the A's are the "home" team for both of these games in Japan. In front of tens of thousands of Massholes on a vacation bender, and the Red Sox's bought and paid for Nippon stars, Matsuzaka and Okajima. Hey, can we just have the A's swap out the Green and Gold for Washington Generals' attire already?

Oh, but some things are eternal. This also from Slusser...

Not everyone here is totally enamored with Boston, however. Rowdy Boston fans at the Tokyo Dome have drawn some disapproving looks and comment. And back at the team hotel, one Japanese woman standing in the lobby surrounded by Red Sox fans turned to her companion and said, "These Boston people are awful."

Gosh, really?

Fool's Gold

So the Big Story in the Association is a 7-point home win for the Suns, now 4-6 in the Shaq Era, over the rampaging Spurs. The loss was the Spurs second in a row after an 11-game winning streak, and was notable for Shaq's 14 points, 16 boards and downright hustle, including a dive into the stands that killed a family of four. The win did much to boost the Suns' playoff chances, pushing them back into contention for the 6 seed, which is going to be critical in the West, since the 7 and 8 seeds are going to have to deal with the Lakers or Spurs in the first round.

So all's right in Suns Land? Not really, no. They still needed a 14-2 burst at the close to get the win, don't have any kind of bench anymore (only 8 Suns played, and Gordon Giricek's 6 minutes really don't count that much), and it's not like you can count on the Spurs to shoot under 35% from the floor very often. Grant Hill's not going to go 9 for 13 from the floor too often, and when you outshoot the Spurs by 10+ percentage points and outrebound them by 8 at home... you really shouldn't need a huge fourth quarter to win.

Meanwhile in Milwaukee, the Little Team That Does (your Philadelphia 76ers) won its 12th out of its last 15 with a 22-point road win. The team shot 60% from the floor, with rookie Thaddeus Young leading seven players in double figures, with 22.

More importantly, it's getting them closer to a 6 seed, which would get them Orlando in the first round, rather than Detroit or Boston... and also gives them a 4-game lead over the 9 seed (currently, New Jersey). If Young and Dalembert (18 and 10 today, compared to Andrew Bogut's 1 and 2 -- yikes) want crush people up front, and Miller and Iggy want to be one of the best backcourts in the East... well, they still can't win because of the bad free throw and three-point shooting. Or can they?

Oh, and a word about the bottom edge of the East -- and that word is Putrid. Six out of the bottom seven are on long-term losing streaks, and if you add them up, it's 22 games and counting for the Nets, Bulls, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks and Heat. If this keeps up, the Bobcats (the only team not stinking up the joint right now) could put a scare into the Hawks, but meanwhile in the West, the Nuggets are out of the running. In the East, they'd be the 4 seed -- and a heck of a lot more intriguing than watching the Hawks get swept. Having a few teams at the top of the conference not stink ain't enough, people. (Of course, the NBA is too busy estorting arenas and fixing the Draft to make sure that tanking teams get bad picks to, um, fix the freaking unspeakably broken playoff system. But I digress.)

Legacy

(H/t Deadspin.) With each passing day, more of your brain -- and the brains of younger people -- knows Isiah Thomas for one thing, and one thing alone: he coaches this team.

At some point, if you are him, don't you just want to, you know, get as far away from this as possible, and have any sense of decency?

NFL Picks, Week 17: The Worst Weekend In NFL History

Seriously, if you're betting this weekend's games, you are out of your mind. Come back in a week and clean up on Wild Card Weekend. I seriously considered tabling this column, or having someone else write it... but then I realized that I'm still in the running, somehow, for the championship in my picks league. (Unlike some people, I make picks every week. Go Persistence!)

Fantasy is over, at least for any league with any kind of sense. The playoff picture is almost entirely wrapped up. Golf dates await. The off-season beckons. You're betting on the relative pride of players on teams that have shown none, or the competence of backups. It makes more sense to throw money at pre-season or the Pro Bowl, for heaven's sakes. I'm also ill, so the writing in this column isn't going to wow you, and the P key on my laptop is behaving badly, so there's bound to be typos. I also have little shot at even finishing at .500 against the spread. Waah, waah, wahh!

Now, with all of that said, and with the readership of this column at an all time low... on to the picks!

* * * * *

New England covering 14.5 against the GIANTS. You have to admire the Patriots for making 16-0 as boring as possible. I'm counting on the Giants back-ups being as gutless at home as their starters, and the stadium being 50-50 for Boston fans, with a huge number of Giants fans cashing out for the Patriots payoff. (Though there is something to be said for the Giants spoiling the perfection, since they are no real playoff threat.)

MIAMI as a 3-point underdog against Cincinnati at home. Are we really supposed to take the Bengals as a road favorite against anyone? The Dolphins will be playing for a job, the Bengals will be playing for pride. Or, um, nothing. (Can you tell that I'm a little bitter about Chad Johnson's big championship week performance? I bet you can.)

PHILADELPHIA covering 7.5 against Buffalo. The end of the year has turned into a pleasant little feel-good story for the Eagles, who are looking at a fully operational Donovan McNabb and dreaming of what might have been. As for the Bills, I'm hoping that they bring Kevin Everett to the game, and that he leaves in disgust at halftime.

Seattle as a 3-point road dog in ATLANTA. This is a pure confidence pick in Seneca Wallace, who is six inches of height from getting the David Garrard Best Back-Up QB Award. Besides, it's hard to imagine the Falcons have any kind of pulse right now, let alone a heart.

CHICAGO as a 2-point underdog against New Orleans. Watching the games last week, it was striking to see the late-season pride of NFC teams that were going nowhere (Chicago, Philly, and even Carolina, to a small degree). Against a Saints team that crapped the bed at home in a must-win situation, I'm expecting some feel-good moments for the Chicago home fans.

Carolina covering as a 3-point favorite in TAMPA BAY. A sheer case of a home team playing their scrubs against a road team trying to save the job of their coach. Matt Moore not looking terrible also has something to do with this, as does the Bucs' absolute fold job in San Francisco last week.

San Francisco as a 10-point underdog in CLEVELAND. The Browns actually have nothing to play for, and Shawn Hill has shown what the Niners would have looked like with mild competence... well, that sound you heard was Frank Gore's fantasy owners gnashing their teeth. (Though the guy that owned him in my league beat me senseless with him.) In a game with nothing to play for, I like a low point spread.

GREEN BAY covering 3.5 against Detroit. Many people are getting sucked into taking the Lions here, as Kitna will play against backups and the Packers looked bad on the road in Chicago. Me, I remember many months of absolutely gutless road performances by this Lions team, and expect a repeat.

Jacksonville as a 6.5 point dog in HOUSTON. Let me get this straight... one of the hottest teams in the AFC that's going to the wild-card weekend against a blah team is just going to roll over? I'm not seeing it. The Jaguars' basic game plan is so vanilla, so run it up your face, and even if they give the ball to Greg Jones instead of Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew, that's a good back. They're going to spend this week doing what they've done for most of the year -- punching people in the mouth.

San Diego as an 8-point favorite in OAKLAND. The Chargers actually have something to play for here (the #3 seed, and the ability to avoid the Jags and Patriots part of the bracket). They also have the mild revenge of Norv Turner sticking it to his old team. Finally, the Raiders are playing JeMarcus Russell in this one, and he has shown absolutely no evidence that he's an NFL QB yet. I love the Chargers here, as part of their whole Late Season Surge To Over-Confidence In The Playoffs.

Kansas City as a 6-point dog in NEW YORK. If you can write more than 50 words about this one, you need professional help. Give me the Chiefs to cover the big number, and Tony Gonzalez to continue his last great season as a fantasy TE.

ARIZONA covering 6 against St. Louis. One of the ways you get to be the Cardinals, and miss the playoffs every year, is to be surprisingly competent at the end of the year, so that you overestimate your talent, sabotage your draft pick, and make sure that your schedule for next year is a little tougher than it has to be. That makes them a lock this week.

WASHINGTON covering 9 against Dallas. Who saw this coming -- the Skins, without Campbell, without Taylor, with Joe Gibbs having incontinence issues and not knowing the rule book... and they are one of the hottest teams in the league? Dallas has nothing to play for here, and more importantly, no Terrell Owens. The Skins get the 6th seed and official Dangerous Team Status with a big win at home.

Minnesota covering 3 at DENVER. Two teams that could not have looked worse last week, so I'm just going with Adrian Peterson dragging his mates to a win. It also helps that the Vikings need this one, though of course they needed last week, too. If there were a Lack of Confidence game of the week, this would be it.

Pittsburgh covering 3.5 at BALTIMORE. Over at the Carnival ten days ago, I wrote that Ravens Fan has had the worst year of any NFL fan. They've done nothing since then to change that opinion, other than give Brian Billick a vote of confidence to make sure that next year will stink as badly as this one. If any of the Raven QBs are on the roster next year, that's an indictment of the general manager; the same goes for Billick.

INDIANAPOLIS as a 6.5 point home dog against Tennessee. I like this Titans team; they are kind of a poor man's Jaguars, albeit with more standout defensive players, given that they have Bulluck and Haynesworth. I just don't like them covering this many points against the Colts, even when the Colts are playing their second-string. The crowd and PA will still be loud for the home team, and Jim Sorgi is better than you think.

Last week: 6-10
Year to date: 111-118-11