Monday, April 23, 2007

No time for jibber jabber

Indians over TWINS. Sowers is better than he's let on, Carlos Silva is worse, and the money line on this looks haywire to me. 2,500 to win 5,050.

Yanks over D-RAYS. The D-Rays exist to provide the Yanks with pick-me-up wins after April troubles. 2,500 to win 1,938.

Season to date: Fool
Money to date: Bigger Fool

Update... 1-1 with a $2,500 payoff from the Tribe. Let's continue to roll the dog dice.

Nats over PHILLIES. The Nats are 6-13. The Phils are 7-11. Does Jamie Moyer really sound like someone who should be getting 2-1 odds at home? Nah, I didn't think so either. 2,500 to win 4,675 in a game that will go the bullpens.

Indians over TWINS. Go against Johan at home, twice in a week? Yup, because It's Still April. Fausto Carmona has his moments, and Johan is only 2-1 with 2 NDs against the Tribe in his last five starts. 5,000 to win 10,150 on the Tribe, because NBX double-booked my bet. Good thing this isn't Real Money...

Update: The Twins loss is my gain, but NBX may have boned my Monday win. Feel The Smoke!
Tomorrow... Scott Olsen and the Fish, both better than they've shown, on the road against the rebounding Tim Hudson and the Braves. Huddy's going to be fine this year, but he's due for some weakness. and the money line is big. 2,500 to win 3,800 on the Marlins.

Contrarianism continues with the over in Reds-Cards, where I don't believe in Looper and Arroyo enough to pass on an 8-run cover. 2,500 to win 2,600 on fireworks.

Thursday... Let's try Jae Seo (gack!) and the D-Rays in Anaheim against Shrek Colon. The moneyline is huge. the D-Rays are feeling frisky after smacking the Yanks around, and Bartubbo might not be so fresh on his second start of the year. 2,500 to win 4,575.

Giants on the road at Dodgers, Ortiz v. Penny. OK, Russ Ortiz is horrible, but this Dodger team hasn't hit at all like this moneyline, and Brad Penny's bound for a clunker. 2,500 to win 4,500.

Friday update... we're 4-4 and up 4,500 from riding dogs to .500. Two more... Brewers over ASTROS, 2,500 to win 3,700. Roy Oswalt is a beast, but Chris Capuano isn't chopped liver, and the Brew Crew has looked solid this year. Am I thrilled to put down 2,500 on Eric Milton and the Reds, on the road in Pittsburgh? When the payoff is 3,625, I am. Ian Snell is off to a hot start, but he's bound to remember that he's Ian Snell soon.

Saturday update... 5-5 and up 9,650 for the week (nearing even for the year), but $5K behind the chalk-running SportsColumn. We're going with the road Twins in Detroit, where Carlos Silva has been good to me before, against Justin Verlander. 2,500 to win 3,825. (Last night's big 4-spot in the 8th off Zumaya for the win also has me thinking good thoughts here.) I'm also going with the D-Rays in Oakland, with Casey Fossum against Dan Haren. The moneyline is bigger than it should be for the home team, who aren't scoring runs... and Haren's due for some longball trouble against the suddenly frisky D-Rays, 2,500 to win 4,350.

Sunday update... 6-6 ad up 11K for the week, but still down, so it's another all-in Sunday. We start in New York, where Tavarez and the Sox have an unconscionable money line against a Yankee team that isn't all better from one win. 8.475 to win 14,747 on the road team. Next, I like Fausto Carmona to keep up the hot streak in Baltimore (2,500 to win 1.603), Brandon McCarthy to pick it up or the Rangers in Toronto (2,500 to win 3,100), Kyle Davies to keep the Rocks down in Colorado (2,500 wo win 2,875), Dallas Braden and a patient A's team to wait out Scott Kazmir in Oakland (2,500 to win 2.750), Derek Lowe and the Dodgers to continue to take advantage of David Wells with the Padres (2,500 to win 2,525), and Randy Johnson to expose Matt Morris and the Giants in Arizona (2,500 to win 1,953). Wish me luck.

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