Nationals over PADRES. Jake Peavy at home is tough to go against, but John Patterson is better then he's shown, and a 13-12 team should not be getting this kind of moneyline against anyone. 1,500 to win 3,660 on today's biggest dog, the Nats.
Rangers over JAYS. Here's another .500 team throwing an ace at home to a big moneyline. This time, I like Vincente Padilla to turn around his 0-3 ways against Roy Halladay. 1,500 to win 2,775 on the Rangers.
Ed. Note: 1-1, with the Nats win pushing us up $2K. Let the profitable mediocrity swell over you.
A's over RED SOX. Cupcakes Blanton has a good track record against the Sox, and Big Schill hasn't felt so fresh in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Green and Gold. The moneyline sells me -- 1,500 to win 2,370.
RANGERS over Yanks. Kameron Loe has a live arm and the home field, but this is more of a vote of no confidence in Phil Hughes and the Yanks long pen. The over of 11 had me tempted as well, but it's a little too much. The Ranger bullpen gets the win. 1,500 to win 2,040 on the Rangers.
Ed Note: Up for the A's, down for the Rangers, now 2-2 and up $3K for the week. Doing well for the season by now, really.
Marlins over METS. Anibal Sanchez has two very good starts against the Mets on his record, and he's opposed by the always entertaining Oliver Perez. 2,000 to win 3,060 on the Fish.
A's over RED SOX. Going again with the road team, after tonight's Papelblowup. Chad Gaudin has no pedigree, but he's been terrific this year, maybe even the team's best. He's opposed by Josh Beckett, who's due for some trouble and has a 1-2 lifetime record against Oakland. 2,000 to win 3,520 on the A's.
Ed Note: Woof. 2-4, down $1K for the week.
Mariners over RED SOX. Am I the only one to notice that Dice-K is just a guy with a 4.4 ERA? Sure, he's good, sure, they should be favored... but this moneyline is off the charts. 2,500 to win 5,000 on Horacio Ramirez and the M's.
Jays over INDIANS. Cliff Lee vs.Dustin McGowan in the first start of the year for both looks to me to be a bullpen fest / toss-up kind of game, but the moneyline doesn't reflect it. 2,500 to win 3,800 on the Jays.
GIANTS over Phillies. Both teams have been frisky lately, but I'm going to take the home favorites here, because Matt Cain is that good, and Adam Eaton is that bad. 2,500 to win 1,812 on the G-Men.
Ed. Note: Good grief. Three one-run losses drops us to 2-7 for the week. Smoke Stewart, why hast thou forsaken me?
Nats over CUBS. The Cubs are 12-14 with a 4-9 home record, and are starting a SP that has an ERA that's 2X higher than his opponent. I know Carlos Zambrano is a name, Jason Bergmann is not, and the Nats stink... but the Cubs are not a world-beater, so this moneyline doesn't make sense to me. 2,250 to win 4,658 on the road Nats.
Mariners over YANKEES. You'd never guess, from this moneyline, that the Mariners were over .500 and starting an Asian SP (Baek) with the lower ERA. Kei Igawa is probably trying to stay in the rotation with this start, but his 7+ ERA makes me go for this moneyline. 2,250 to win 3,825 on the road Mariners.
Ed Note: The Nats fail to hold the early lead in Chicago, but the Ms win a slugfest in NY. 3-8 for the week, down $7K, $32K behind the leaders. Who knew gambling could have such heartbreak?
Today, I'm going back to the same bad well with the Nats' John Patterson against the Cubs' Rich Hill in Chicago. Patterson beat Jake Peavy in his last start in San Diego, and Hill's 1.77 ERA is bound for some correction. 3,500 to win 6,860 on the road Nats.
After last night's 14-11 loss, how are the Yankees a prohibitive moneyline favorite today against the Mariners? Jeff Weaver vs. Chien Ming Wang, that's how -- but Wang hasn't been lights out yet, and you have to expect Weaver to throw a decent start once every 10 games, right? Well, no, but in another slugfest, I like the Mariner bully more than the Yanks' right now. 3,500 to win 8,925 on the road Ms.
Sunday: Woof, woof, woof. 3-10 for the week, and looking foward to retiring Mr. T. I'm pissing away the last of my bankroll with the White Sox on the road against the Angels, just because I liek Buehrle this year and don't believe in Shrek Colon. You are encouraged to go the other way, of course. 1.105 to win 1,400.
Monday, April 30, 2007