MLB Playoff Party Picks

As part of the site's mission statement to cause our own pain, the Truth and I will square off in our usual playoff picks challenge. The loser has to write something really, really painful. Scoring is as follows: 20 points for picking the winning team, 10 for choosing the number of exact games, 5 for being one off with the winner. Each round doubles.

While one of us will lose, one of you will win . We'll be awarding a Garment of Greatness (aka, a Five Tool Tool T-shirt) to the commenter with the highest score, so post yours in the comments. It's great for cleaning up spills, scaring small children, and getting you nooky with girls with low self-esteem. (If you are a girl, it'll make your breasts perkier.) So pick already!


Milwaukee-Philadelphia

Yovani Gallardo works Game One, just the fifth time he'll pitch in this year, for a Brewer team that staggered into the post-season. They'll face Phillies ace Cole Hamels, who should be good here. Game two has workhorse CC Sabathia against second-half superstar Brett Myers, and Game Three gives you Jamie Moyer against Jeff Suppan. Game four is said to be Dave Bush against Hamels in the game where the Brewers will miss Ben Sheets the most, and Five, if necessary, would be Sabathia against Myers.

The Phils have home field, rested aces, and unlike the Brewers, healthy starters. They also have fresh reasons for despair, in that Pat Burrell is having back issues, but the Brew bullpen is just shaky enough to give them late-game magic. Besides, they turned their year around with a 4-game sweep that cost Ned Yost his job just a few weeks ago; they think they can beat this team like a drum at home, and they will.

CC has made himself ridiculous money from his three-month NL sabbatical, but it ends here and somewhat decisively, despite the fact that we're talking about more or less even teams. Oh, and watch for a crippling fielding error from the Brewers; they are better than they were last year since Ryan Braun was banished to the outfield, but still not that good. Phillies in four.

Los Angeles-Chicago

The Cubs were a whopping 13 games better than the Dodgers this year while playing in a tougher division. The series starts with Derek Lowe vs. the suddenly dominant Ryan Dempster, followed by Chad Billingsley against Carlos Zambrano. Game three has Rich Harden against Hideki Kuroda, with Game Four being Ted Lilly against Greg Maddux.

Basically, the Cubs should have an edge in every pitching matchup of this series, along with an edge in the starting lineups. The bullpens are more or less a wash, with both closer situations being less than airtight. Hell, I even like the Cubs in the dugout, as Lou Pinella works against Joe Torre; Torre has more rings, but it's not like any of them have come in this century, and he doesn't usually do as well when his team is just ordinary.

If the Cubs can limit the damage from the ludicrously hot Manny Ramirez and a crippling injury to the very good but very worrisome Zambrano / Harden combo, they should sweep. But Derek Lowe has a history of post-season success, and the Cub fan base is all about me-me-me drama, whereas no one is really expecting that the Dodgers are going to be around for long. I think the series is close and tough, but Greg Maddux in Game 4 is a real worry, as he's just not a big-game pitcher anymore. Cubs in 4.

Los Angeles-Boston

Kind of a mirror to Dodges-Cubs, except that in this case, the better team is out West. The Angels coasted to postseason with a 100-win year, ignited in the second half by the suspiciously low-priced trade of Mark Teixiera to really make that lineup go. Boston failed to catch Tampa in the pennant race and has injury issues to go with some shakiness in the late inning pen, though closer Jonathan Papelbon continues to be one of the game's best.

Pitching wise, this goes Jon Lester versus John Lackey, then an off day before Dice-K against Ervin Santana. Once the series moves to Boston, it's Joe Saunders aginst Josh Beckett, and the off day means that both teams are going to skip their fourth starter, at least at present. Santana at home is a lot better than Santana on the road, but Dice has also been living with great fortune -- you don't often see an 18-2 record and sub 3-run ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, mostly from a lot of walks. Lester and Lackey are both great, and Saunders is serviceable. The wild card is Beckett, who has been awful at times this year and fighting through injuries.

Lineup wise, Boston's beat up, and David Ortiz has not been himself all year. Jason Bay's a good player and not a drama fest, but he hasn't been otherworld Manny in the stretch. (Left aside: Manny wouldn't have been, either.) When your offensive MVP is Dustin Pedroia, that's a nice story, but it's not a great offense.

I like the Angels here, but it won't be easy or pretty, especially since this thing lines up very nicely for a big Boston comeback after falling behind. Whoever wins Game One will win the series, and as good as Lester has looked in big moments this year, that's surprisingly close. Angels in five.

Tampa-Chicago

Do you believe in momentum? Then you will love this ChiSox team, who has won multiple elimination games to get the maiden Rays. Tampa was 8 games better in the regular season and has dramatically better pitching, along with a roaring new home crowd and dome that will prove highly irritating to the visitors from Chicago.

Game One has Javier Vazquez going against James Shields, while Game Two gives us Mark Buehrle facing the electric stuff of Scott Kazmir. Game three in Chicago has elimination game hero Gavin Floyd (yes, the Phillies could use him) against Matt Garza, while Game Four has both teams going to Andy Sonnastine versus Jon Danks.

The Rays have the better starting nine, a manager that isn't prone to the crazy talk, a home crowd that will probably clear anything and the better starters. They also will have the usual doubters citing their lack of playoff experience, and at some point in these playoffs, the health of closer Troy Percival and the mental stability of talented head case BJ Upton will prove fatal. I also think they are kind of nuts for trying to turn David Price into Joba Chamberlain at this point in his career, though when you see his stuff, I get why they are falling into temptation.

Anyway, the Rays will lose... but not this early. Tampa in 4.