NFL Picks, Week Six: Hurtling Toward The Random

The leaves are starting to fall here in the East, with the major benefit of fewer live mosquitoes balanced against the looming menace of heating bill prices. You've seen enough NFL football to be knee deep and still caring, assuming that you don't root for the Rams, Bengals or Lions. So why are you still expecting some What It All Means open from me, especially when there's rampant stupidity to defrag? Let's go to the picks. (My selections are in CAPS.)

Baltimore at INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5)

One of the things that hack writers need to do to show how edgy they are is to make rash judgments based on small sample sizes and misleading metrics. This week, the collective meme of hackery, backed up by Bush apologist and terminal wanker Gregg Easterbrook, leads off the Lemur with the assertion that Eli Manning is now better than Peyton Manning.

Now, an aside. I am, as you might have guessed by now, something of a fantasy sports player. I'm also one that's been fortunate enough to have avoided Peyton Manning in any of my leagues this year. I thought he'd be good, but the knee scared me, so he just wasn't a priority. Neither, for that matter, was his brother, just because he throws (way) too many picks for my liking, has got great running backs that curtail his value near the goal line, and has a history of falling apart in the second half.

All of that still could be true. The season is longer than five weeks. But in any event, Eli's numbers run rings around Peyton's this year, and probably will at the end of the year, too.

This does not, however, mean that Eli's better than Peyton. It is simply a matter of context.

While Peyton's schedule has included fun moments like Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Houston (and of the four teams, only Houston has a notably bad defense), Eli has had Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Seattle -- teams that are just by looking at them worse, especially the NFC West squads. While Peyton has been working for good chunks of time without his center and tight end, Eli's had everyone back and healthy. Peyton's got one running back that's worth a damn in Joseph Addai; Eli has three that might all be better than that. (I'm just not a huge Addai fan.) Even at wideout, the Giants are comparable or better; sure, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are better than Plaxico Burress and Kevin Boss, but it's not like the Giants are bad there.

In terms of defenses, New York has a good one; Indy doesn't, especially when Bob Sanders isn't right. I'd be very surprised if Eli hasn't had better field position and more takeaways. On special teams, the Colts are quietly terrible, with Adam Vinatieri no longer worth his hype and Hunter Smith having always been poor. The Giants haven't had a miss yet in the kicking game, and punter Jeff Feagles is aces at pinning the ball inside the 20.

So let's see... Eli's got the edge in just about every category, has had a dramatically easier schedule, and just to put the icing on the cake, wasn't hurt in pre-season, so he's not coming back from anything. The younger has also played well by any measure this year. He might now be a top 10 QB in the NFL, and if you believe in growth, redemption, et cetera... well, maybe a Super Bowl ring does have mystical properties, especially when you earn it with a last-minute drive in which you pulled off the signature play of your career.

But me, I'm going to go with the more likely story, which is that Peyton Manning is one of the five to ten best QBs in NFL history, and Eli Manning is, well, not. And that people who make judgments based on five weeks are doing so simply for the shock value of the argument, rather than the actual, put your ass on the line moment that would mean they'd take Eli over Peyton in a heads-up selection for Real Actual Football (not Fantasy).

But if you find someone who is serious about their Eli over Peyton love, ask them this: is Michael Turner the very best running back in the NFL? Because he's got the same argument for that as you've got for Eli over Peyton.

Anyway... getting back to this game. The Ravens were robbed last week on a terrible blow to the head call that gave Kerry Collins another drive, in a game that lived up to the defensive hype. The Colts received a gift from the Stupidity Gods when Sage Rosenfeld decided to pursue his interests in airborne breakdancing before fumbling, in a moment that will be on a video chip on his gravestone. The Colts might be a bad team; the Ravens might be a mediocre one with a great defense.

There's no doubt that Baltimore will run for a lot of yards this week and make Peyton continue to look old and in the way. But I'm also thinking that the league is catching up to Joe Flacco in a big way, and that the Colts are going to take this whole nonsense about how their offense isn't good anymore to heart. Teams don't win without making at least a few plays in the passing game, if only because penalties happen. And, um, Peyton Manning has owned the Ravens in the past, and he was good enough to take advantage of the Rosenfeld gifts, even with Anthony Gonzalez unavailable due to concussion.

Finally, there's the fact that the money is all going to the Ravens, with the line shrinking by two points since the start of the week. Contrarianism, and decent sample sizes, are your friend. And Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and he'll beat Joe Flacco at home.

Colts 24, Ravens 17

Detroit at MINNESOTA (-13.5)

Let's keep this simple. If the Lions couldn't cover last week against the Bears, at home, after a bye... why on earth should they be able to do it on the road? Plus, there's new word out of Motown that Jon Kitna is questionable at best, which means they are going to Dan Orlovsky (also banged up) or Drew Stanton.

Let's just say that Minnesota is a fine choice for your confidence pool this week.

The Vikings are no one's comfort pick for a big spread, given that head coach Brad Childress eats paste and kicks to Reggie Bush when he's nearly vibrating with Teh Hotness, but that won't matter here. The Lions made Orton look like Joe Montana; they'll make Gus Frerotte look like an NFL quarterback. They'll also wilt like mad in Minny's dome, and stop having an interest in tackling Adrian Peterson about midway through the second quarter. Expect lots of shots of guys who will die from heart disease in their mid '40s wearing Goldilocks wigs, and your local Peterson owner to finally get his money's worth.

Vikings 34, Lions 17

Oakland at NEW ORLEANS (-7.5)

If you would have played out last week's loss to the Vikings in Madden, you'd have thrown the controller at the television and stomped off in a huff. In other words, you'd have been acting like every guy playing Madden.

Anyway, the Raiders are the poor man's Vikings -- dumb coaching situation (at least, one presumes, now), overmatched quarterback who has moments against terrible defenses, good running game, defense that will hit you but not play terribly smart. The Saints should have beaten the Vikings, and they will beat the Raiders. By a lot, despite the Raiders coming off a bye, because the Raiders are more or less functioning without a coach, and because they are also banged up in the secondary. Not exactly something you want to be in a game against Drew Brees, who, by the way, utterly owned the Raiders in his Charger days.

Saints 38, Raiders 21

Cincinnati at NY JETS (-6.0)

Oh, those rascally Bengals. The mouthiest winless team ever goes on the road in New York, where the Bretts enjoyed their bye after playing offensive pinball at home against the Cardinals. There are reasons to suspect a cover here, just because the Bengals covered in New York and in Dallas, and the Jets aren't really that good. But coming off a bye, against a team with character issues that has to be wondering just what the hell they have to do to get Marvin Lewis fired... well, it's more or less a coin flip, and in those situations, I like the home team to cover. Just barely.

Jets 31, Bengals 24

CHICAGO at Atlanta (+2.5)

The Orton Victory Parade continues, with the one-time neckbeard laughingstock continuing to make the plays, move the team, and rack up stats. At some point, you have to think it will all come crashing down, but I'm not seeing it happen on the road in Atlanta, where the Bear defense will take away Roddy White and Michael Turner, thereby making Matt Ryan rely on his secondary weapons. It's not something you want a rookie QB to do, even at home. Look for Orton and Matt Forte will take advantage of short fields, and for Turner to lose his #1 fantasy running back ranking.

Chicago 24, Falcons 17

CAROLINA at Tampa Bay (-1.0)

People are starting to get behind this Carolina team, who enjoyed the closest thing to a bye with a home game against the Chiefs. The Bucs, meanwhile, were losing a surprisingly low scoring game in Denver, and appear to be playing Musical Noodle Armed QB, with Jeff Garcia getting the nod over a banged-up Brian Griese. It's also telling that the line has moved two points toward the road team... and well, I trust Jake Delhomme a heck of a lot more than what the Bucs have, even at home.

Panthers 20, Bucs 17

St. Louis at WASHINGTON (-13.5)

What to make of this Redskins team? They weren't supposed to be very good, and they were doing something unprecedented by giving the reins to Jim Zorn. Now they are 4-1, have completed their NFC East road obligations with a 2-1 record, and all of that with a defense that hasn't forced turnovers. It's unexpected, but just from looking at them on a snap by snap basis, they just control the line of scrimmage well, and when you do that, you should win the game.

Zorn's getting a lot of credit, but on offense especially, there's something to be said for their best players finally all being healthy. Add to that the continued maturation of Jason Campbell (who, well, has always struck me as a guy who should be good one day), the continued good work of Clinton Portis, and it almost doesn't matter that the wideouts are ordinary.

As for the Rams... jeez, do I have to really write about them? They bring back Marc Bulger, which I guess is encouraging, and they are coming off the bye. Maybe they care now and try, but even if they do, they can't stop the run, and they like to quit late. I like the Skins to cover this late.

Redskins 30, Rams 16

Miami at HOUSTON (-3.0)

Maybe I'm crazy to still like this Texans team, but there it is, and I still can't grasp the idea of a Dolphins team that goes 1-15 last year, then proceeds to run roughshod over presumably solid division and conference rivals. I'm looking for the Texans to get out early here and get rid of some demons. One also suspects that one of these weeks, some opponent will figure out how to defense the single wing plays from Ronnie Brown.

As an aside... if I'm a defensive player and I see the quarterback split out side, I'm taking the opportunity to line up two defenders on him and taking the free shot against a guy that is now in a blocking position. Congrats, offense -- you've got your mild gain from the single wing play. See how much your QB enjoyed it.

Anyway... Texans, dammit. To win, to cover, to smile.

Texans 27, Dolphins 17

JACKSONVILLE at Denver (-3.5)

Another genuinely intriguing game, where the disappointing Jaguars visit the disquieting Broncos. I'm liking the road team under the theory that they just need it more, and with second banana WR Eddie Royal likely to miss, I think the Jaguars can focus on Brandon Marshall and make the Broncos rely on their (not very good) running game. On offense, look for the first very good game from the Jasgs' running backs, who should find some room to move here.

Jaguars 24, Broncos 17

PHILADELPHIA at San Francisco (+4.5)

Oh, Eagles Fan, we have been here before. With patience ebbing in both the coach and QB, with the season in the balance, the best place for this Birds team is on the road, against a not very good opponent that can't protect the quarterback. Jim Johnson's exotic blitzes are made for young quarterbacks, and so long as the Eagles can keep Frank Gore from running wild, I just don't see the home team scoring enough points... especially when Donovan McNabb is looking primed for a very big week.

Oh, and there's also this: Vernon Davis sucks, and Mike Martz can't keep his QB upright. Even with a less than hale Brian Westbrook, this one will bring a lot of people in Philadelphia off the ledge.

Eagles 34, Niners 13

GREEN BAY at Seattle (+2)

Both teams are coming off of bad losses -- the Packers at home to Atlanta, the Seahawks on the road in New York -- but the difference is that the Pack was competitive, while the 'Bags just quit. I have very little use for this Seahawks' team this year, and have ever since they lost to the Niners at home. The Packers get well here, with Ryan Grant finally having a good game. (Hey, if I write this every week, maybe it'll finally come true.)

Packers 28, Seahawks 16

Dallas at ARIZONA (+5)

Even before this week's TOTALLY SHOCKING Adam "Mister" Jones lapse into shocking stupidity, the Cowboys' secondary was showing cracks, with Terence Newman and Roy Williams down from a group that wasn't that great to begin with. Against a Cardinals team that can throw the ball (even without Anquan Boldin, as seems likely) and with wins in their last five home games... well, it's troublesome.

More troublesome is the fact that Cowboys QB Tony Romo keeps turning the ball over, and that if the 'Boys aren't getting a big play, they aren't getting points.

For the Cardinals, look for them to try to take some of the air out of the ball with Edge James and Tim Hightower, and if they can keep Kurt Warner clean, I really do like their chances of pulling the upset. They are going to have to score 30+ points, but at the very least, they'll cover. (Also note... the line has dropped from 6.5 at the start of the week. Considering the amount of money that just likes to bet on the Cowboys, that's telling.)

Cardinals 34, Cowboys 31

New England at SAN DIEGO (-5.5)

A make-or-break game for both teams, really, as they share game film that shows the Dolphins punking them. Just by comparing that same opponent, the Chargers were competitive in Miami, while the Patriots got stomped at home; advantage, San Diego. The Chargers have missed Shawne Merriman more than anyone might have guessed, as the pass rush has been so slow that a reasonable secondary has been roasted and toasted. The Patriots have had Matt Cassel be less than Tom Brady in every little way -- too fast on the checkdowns, not strong enough on the deep ball, holding on too long and taking sacks, etc. -- and in this game, against a Chargers team that's probably spent the last week working up some blitz packages, that won't cut it. Keep an eye out for Darren Sproles in this game as well, since the Patriots really struggle to cover that kind of speed back.

Chargers 27, Patriots 21

NY GIANTS at Cleveland (+8.0)

Ah, finally -- a truly crappy MNF game, just like Mama used to make. Or is it? The Browns are coming off a bye, while the Giants are coming off a de facto bye after dismantling the Seahawks at home. The Browns just might be frisky in this game, in that they've got the talent at offensive line to slow down the Giants rush... but even if that happens, they can't stop the Giants running backs, and Derek Anderson isn't very good at all. Expect this to be tight with the Giants playing sloppy early, but covering late.

Giants 24, Browns 14

Last week: 6-6-2

Year to date: 39-33-2