Sunday, October 19, 2008

Seriously, no benefit

On the off chance that you are thinking that the long ALCS is going to make for a pronounced edge for the Phillies in the upcoming series... um, no.

The series starts on Wednesday in the AL home park. Assuming the Sox complete the comeback and that they don't have an extra-inning bloodbath in tonight's Game 7, they'll hve Dice-K Matsuzaka start on five days of rest in Game 1. Then, they could go for Josh Beckett on four days rest in Game 2, and Jon Lester in Game 3 on Saturday the 25th in Philadelphia, again on five days of rest. Depending on where the series is at for Game 4, they'll either try Tim Wakefield on an eternity of rest (not that a knuckleballer needs it), or try Dice on three days. There's really no difference between this rotation set-up and what they've done in the Tampa series.

If Tampa wins, it's pretty similar -- once again, assuming that there isn't a bloodbath game tonight. Scott Kazmir would work Game 1 on five days of rest, followed by Andy Sonnastine in Game 2, on something like eight days of rest. Saturday's Game 3 gives you James Shields on the road with six days of rest, and Game Four brings back Matt Garza. It just won't be a factor.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will have that whole "Too Much Rest?" issue going on, and assuming they don't sweep in Boston -- they'll go to Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in the home games.

Oh, and two final points to remember... the 2-3-2 breakdown means that the Phillies will absolutely have to split the first two games (or better) to win the Series, and it's really hard to see how they do that in either of those stadiums. It's especially hard to see how they do that if they lose Game One with Cole Hamels, given how skittish Brett Myers has (and can) be, especially in a pressure situation. Oh, and it would be the first time that Myers works in Boston since The Incident with His Wife. Good luck with that, Brett.

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