Five NBA Players Who Will Soon Fall Off A Cliff

Because it’s come to our attention that we really need to kill the trade value of some of the guys on our current fantasy team roster, and that any sports blog that trashes people who don’t talk about sports, should, um, talk about sports… anyway, enjoy.

1) Jason Kidd

Everyone’s too wrapped in DivorceGate to notice, but JKidd has had one hell of a half-season, to the point of being a top 10 MVP candidate. His shooting percentage (43%) is at its highest level since 1998, his boards per game (8.3) are at the highest level in his career, and the 9.2 assists are the best he’s done in four years. Turnovers are up a smidge, and the steals are down 0.5 a game from his glory days, but this is all quibbling. He’s a triple-double threat every night out, and a joy to watch.

Some idiot rankings that shall remain Yahoo even have Kidd as high as the 3rd best player in the league this year, behind the Matrix and Agent Zero. That, of course, is evidence of some exceptional smoking of the crack, but the fact remains that he’s been as good as any of his owners could have hoped.

Outside of the numbers, Kidd has dragged a bad Nets team up to a 20-21 mark going into tonight’s game, despite the loss of Nenad Krstic a month ago, and Richard Jefferson now. And he’s done it all at age 33, without logging any more minutes than before, when the world usually turns cold to oversized point guards.

So why is he about to fall off a cliff? Because making serviceable basketball players out of Mikki Moore, Jason Collins and Eddie House is not a long-term prescription for good performance. Kidd has also just accepted the Kiss of Death assignment of international basketball for Team USA, which rivals only the Madden Curse in terms of cutting short NBA careers. And at some point, DivorceGate has to take the wind out of his sails. New Jersey would be wise to cut bait on him now, but they probably won’t, since they seem to be the only team in the Titanic Division that’s actually trying to win games.

The decline will happen in the second half, and definitely next year.

2) Mike Miller

Always a nice all-around player, Miller has enjoyed a numbers renaissance under the faster-losing Grizz in the past few weeks. He delivers a ton of threes, more boards and assists than you’d expect, and nearly a steal a game. His 17.2 points a game, 6 boards and 4.4 assists are all career highs, and he’s the kind of sneaky multi-category player that fuels successful fantasy teams.

So why is he headed for the pound? The minutes. Miller hasn’t managed this kind of workload (38.5 a game) since 2002, and he hasn’t played a full slate of games since 2000. The league’s second-most forgotten Rookie of the Year (behind, of course, Mighty Mouse and teammate Damon Stoudamire) will wear out and/or get hurt in the second half. And even if that doesn’t happen, a Grizz Dump of Pau Gasol won’t help matters, either.

3) Jermaine O’Neal

This one’s just on feel. JO is second in the league in the Garnett Rage Meter, and you have to think that the steady No D Diet of Murphy and Dunleavy will make him want out of Indy even more than he did before.

So if he stays, he’ll be angry… and he gets dealt, he’s not going to be in as good of a situation. JO is one of the few quality low-post players left in the East right now, and his status as Alpha Dog in Pacerland is unquestioned. A new team might make for a happier JO, but it won’t make for better numbers.

In any event, there’s a lot of possibilities with J’O right now, and relatively few of them look to be as good as his current 19.4 points, 10.5 boards and 3 blocks in 36 minutes. He’s also not the most durable guy in the world, either. Don’t panic if you can’t move him, but start making inquiries.

4) Andris Biedrins

This has been a nice little story for fantasy league players this year, as the truly athletic Golden State big man has blossomed under Don Nelson to a serviceable #2 center from the waiver wire with 10.2 points, 9.6 boards and 1.9 blocks a game. The 61.8% FG% isn’t bad either, and he’s got active hands with 0.8 steals a game.

Biedrins has the common problem of young athletic bigs – he can’t stay on the court. He’s cut down this year’s hack-a-minute ratio to one every 7 minutes or so, down from last year’s Ken “The Animal” Bannister’s-esque 1 every 5, but against any kind of post big man, he’s a short night waiting to happen.

We also get the feeling that he’s not going to keep seeing 29 minutes a game after the trade… and even if he does, that he’ll hold up under the workload. Deal now, or cut him later.

5) Sam Dalembert

One of the few (relative) bright spots in an otherwise unwatchable year of basketball in Philadelphia, Sammy is averaging a career high in points (10.4), field goal percentage (56.6), and free throws (2 a game at 72%). In January, he’s been even better at 13 points, 8.9 boards, and 2.4 blocks. With no AI and no CWebb, someone’s got to score in this crap hole… so why not Sammy?

The reason we’d move him is because this has been this guy’s MO for the three years he’s been in the league – brief spurts where he looks like an emerging and borderline dominant defensive center, followed by long periods that remind us of the late great Joe Barry Carroll, or Benoit Benjamin.

And on a team that’s going through the motions and collecting ping-pong balls for Oden/Durant, Sammy’s due for 10 games of iced hamstrings. (Games played per year – 72, 66.) We also wonder about his motivation, as always, especially in a near-empty building for a team that’s going to go big in the draft. We’re not saying cut him, we’re just saying sell to someone who isn’t paying attention.

Later this week, five to fly in the second half.