Week Two NFL Picks: No Comeuppance!

One of the things that you always hear, and tell yourself, if Week 1 didn't work out for you is how early it is. It's just one game, you know? Don't overreact. Stay in your shoes. Trust that your completely beaten down fantasy or real team can and will bounce back. And all that is well and good, except that if you go down 0-2, you're probably not getting out of it. (And 0-3? Forget about it.)

So people -- and the betting lines that serve as a barometer of their interest -- reflect that bedrock impatience. Let's take, for an example, the Jacksonville Jaguars. A week ago, they were everyone's dark horse pick to go to the Super Bowl from the AFC. They were tough, physical, with a dynamic running game, a QB that was coming into his own, and WRs that, even if they weren't very good, had to be improved.

Then they lost to the Titans on the road -- a 10-win team from last year, mind you, with one of the better defenses in the league -- on a day when Garrard turned it over three times. They also had some offensive line injuries. And voila... they're a pick'em candidate against a Bills team that's on the road, and who no one was picking to be more than .500 this year.

I'm thinking there's money to be made here, folks, if you're willing to be a little patient.

So why take that advice from a guy that wasn't even .500 ATS last year? Because if you were betting with the Shooter last week, you rolled to an 11-5 week against the spread, complete with two half-point covers. Can I possibly pull it off again this week? You'd be insane to think so, but who knows, maybe I've finally figured this out whole thing betting on pro football thing. Let's go to the picks!

(As always, the home team is in caps, and the spread pick is in italics.)

Green Bay (+6) at DETROIT

The smart money says this is a letdown game for the Pack, who have the short week and travel. They'll face a Lions team that can't possibly be as bad as they were in Atlanta, and they can certainly score some points with those wideouts. The Packers might also have to baby lead back Ryan Grant's hamstring in this game, which is a problem because backup Brandon Jackson is a terrible, terrible football player. Seriously, I know they spent a high pick on him, but he's just awful.

I believe in all of these factors -- enough to think this won't be a 2 to 3 touchdown blowout. More than that, no.

The Lions spent week one making Michael Turner look like the best RB in the league, and, um, he's not. The smart money says they should cover, and that you shouldn't trust a mostly unproven quarterback like Aaron Rodgers in his first road test. However, there is a functional disconnect with putting "smart money" and "the Lions" in close proximity. I'm thinking Jennings and Driver combine for three touchdowns this week, and for Kitna to turn the ball over against the Packers' opportunistic defense.

Packers 31, Lions 24

Oakland at KANSAS CITY (+3.5)

Both teams travel after losses, but they had very different experiences. Kansas City goes home after becoming America's Sweethearts by crippling Tom Brady and coming close to upsetting the defending AFC champions in a game where everyone expected them to be complete roadkill. The Raiders go east after being, well, complete roadkill in their annual immolation against the Broncos in Oakland, continuing the time-honored tradition of making America wonder why we have to endure a double-header start to MNF.

Neither team is going to avoid double digits in the loss column this year, but with flashes of competence in the form of Damon Huard behind center, versus the continued buffonery of Jemarcus Russell (we're just four months away from everyone knowing he's going to be a bust), the Chiefs have a clear advantage in addition to the home field. Look for a big game from Tony Gonzalez to keep the chains moving early, and Larry Johnson to do it late.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 13

Giants (+9) at ST. LOUIS

Is there any good reason to think that the Rams aren't one of the three worst teams in football? No, not really. Is there any reason to doubt that the Giants continue to be a force to be reckoned with, and have the ability to grind bad teams into paste behind a multi-faceted running game? No, not really.

So why take the Rams to cover? Because I suspect that New York's Road Warrior act of last year was a fluke, and that they are going to have a very hard time taking this game seriously after watching the film of that relay team effort the Eagles put up. Also, well, Eli Manning can throw picks against any team, good or bad, and this has the feel of a game he wins, but keeps close. Look for the Rams to do some things on offense and get the people who drafted their offensive players for their fantasy teams to get off the ledge, if only for one week. The garbage time cover will fly here.

Giants 28, Rams 20

Indianapolis at MINNESOTA (+3)

Alarm bells are ringing for both teams, who are watching preseason Super Bowl dreams melt away in the heat of a potential 0-2 start. The Colts come in banged up, with critical offensive pieces Jeff Saturday, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark all questionable, and Peyton Manning still looking rusty after a work-free pre-season. The Vikings stayed close but not quite with the Packers in a sloppy MNF game, and still have the whole Good Tarv / Bad Tarv thing happening at quarterback.

The whole key here will be whether the Colts can keep Manning free from Jared Allen, and if the Vikings can make the Colts pay for an Everyone But Tony Dungy in the Box effort to make anyone but Adrian Peterson beat them. It also doesn't help that the Colts just released starting DL Ed Johnson for a marijuana violation. But in a tight and entertaining game, I like Manning's veteran guile, and the potential for more touches for explosive 3rd wideout Anthony Gonzalez, to carry the day. I'm also counting on a brutal Bad Tarv pick to open things up late.

Colts 31, Vikings 17

Tennessee (+1.5) at CINCINNATI

Two more teams that aren't looking like they'll be playing relevant games in cold weather, but at least the Titans can't be 0-2 after this one. With Vince Young hurt and having his mommy tell us about his hurt feelings, the Titans are going to go with Kerry Collins, which actually might be a plus, given how he's played better than Young for some time now. Meanwhile, the Bengals got dismantled in Baltimore in an effort that's getting many to start the Marvin Lewis Death Watch. The pick here is for the Titans defense and rookie runner Chris Johnson to redeem the ugliness, if only by a little.

Titans 17, Bengals 13

Saints (+3.5) at REDSKINS

This one gets a little complicated by the Saints being on the road and without #1 wideout Marques Colston, but with Devery Henderson, David Patten and (especially) Jeremy Shockey taking up the slack, it shouldn't matter very much this week. The Skins come in with a few extra days thanks to their Thursday New York crushfest, but this offense is too discombobulated to put up more than three touchdowns in a game, even against the fairly pliable Saints.

Saints 28, REDSKINS 24

Chicago at CAROLINA (even)

Both teams surprised AFC contenders on the road last week, with the Panthers taking a last-second win in San Diego and the Bears smacking the Colts in the mouth. Carolina will still be without Steve Smith, and it will also be a strange reunion moment for Moose Muhammad, who interrupted his Panther career with a few years in Chicago. Carolina is the choice here, because I'm believing in the Jake Delhomme that lead that late comeback on the road... more than I'm believing in the Kyle Orton that managed the game with a dominant run game from Matt Forte. This Bears team needs early leads to avoid over-reliance on their passing game, and they won't get it this week.

Panthers 20, Bears 13

Buffalo at JACKSONVILLE (even)

The Bills looked dominant in smacking the Seahawks around last week, while the Jags have lost three offensive linemen already this year. It adds up to a line that would have been inconceivable in pre-season, because no one could have seen the Bills having the talent to compete with the Jags, let alone on the road. As I mentioned in the open, I'm thinking a little patience helps here, and that Garrard won't turn the ball over that often again, even if he does hit the turf a few times. This will be one of those weeks where Maurice Jones-Drew looks like fantasy gold.

Jaguars 24, Bills 17

San Francisco at SEATTLE (+2.5)

Two very hurting teams, with the Seahawks coming off a road spanking from the Bills, and the Niners getting beat at home by the Cardinals. Of the two, Seattle is more hurt, with their top three wideouts all on the shelf for this game. Oh, and Alex Smith has likely played his last snap for the Niners, cementing his place in the All-Time #1 Pick Bust Hall of Fame. I think we all knew it was over when he lost the job to JT O'Sullivan, who might have reasonable numbers here, in addition to some surprisingly tasty fried fries on a stick.

Anyway, the Niners could surprise, but Seattle has spent most of the last decade recovering from road turds like last week, and they will do it again -- even if it's done by Seneca Wallace throwing to himself. In a battle between a guy who used to be a good coach versus a guy who never was, go with the former.

Seahawks 21, Niners 17

Atlanta at TAMPA BAY (+4.5)

Brian Griese gets the start for the Bucs for the injured Jeff Garcia, while Matt Ryan takes his first road start for the Falcons. The difference between Griese and Garcia is subtle but important, but I can't see Ryan doing much against a smart Cover 2 defense in his first road start, and Michael Turner will not break 100 yards in this game. I'm hoping that Earnest Graham will get the majority of touches here, because man alive, Warrick Dunn is more spent than last month's paycheck at a no-limit game...

Bucs 20, Falcons 10

New England at NEW YORK (pick 'em)

Speaking of another line that no one would have believed a week ago, here's a pick'em game for the defending AFC champions versus a 4-win team from last year. Matt Cassel takes his first road start against Brett Favre in a game where, realistically, no one has any idea what to expect. If the Jets hadn't held on to the win in Miami -- and it was a very near thing, really -- and the Pats hadn't gotten some stops against Damon Huard in the last minute of their game in New England... well, there's no way that anyone in Vegas has any idea where this game goes.

In games like this one, I look to the coaches to have a stronger impact than usual... and that's not a factor that anyone but J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan doesn't see breaking for New England. Expect the Patriots to throw more than you'd expect but less than usual, and for the blame for the loss to be put squarely on the shoulders of the intercepted Brett Favre. Remember, Jets Fan, don't boo him or he'll threaten to retire again...

Patriots 24, Jets 21

Miami at ARIZONA (+5)

This is a big number to give up to the Cardinals, especially when the Dolphins looked like a real live football team for much of last week's game, but the Buzzsaw has a bit of a different look to them than in the past. They seem to get that limiting Kurt Warner's mistakes isn't a terrible idea, and they are using rookie back Tim Hightower to improve their short yardage effectiveness while keeping Edge James a little less stale. Edge hasn't had a caddy worth a damn in his entire Arizona career; maybe the Cards are actually ready to enter the 20th century of American football thought.

For the Dolphins, a suspect running game was the culprit in last week's home opening loss to the Jets. This week, it'll be a defense that can't get off the field, especially on third down throws to Anquan Boldin. I think it's a barely cover game for the home team.

Cardinals 24, Dolphins 17

Baltimore (+2) at HOUSTON

Here's another case where I'm thinking Vegas is overreacting to Week 1. Houston was an 8-8 team last year with a backup quarterback, a hurt #1 WR and a bad running game; all should be upgraded, if not actually top of the line. The Ravens are also starting rookie Joe Flacco on the road, and while they look like they have a defense, the road does funny things to people. Both teams will be .500 after this.

Texans 24, Ravens 13

San Diego at DENVER (pick 'em)

Instant early season showdown in Denver, where the Chargers are staring down the barrel of a two-game deficit with the Broncos. I'm going with the visitors despite their history of horrors in the mile-high air, because even though the Broncos are getting back Brandon Marshall and have something special in Eddie Royal, and the Chargers have given up the ghost of Shawne Merriman... well, the Chargers are still more talented at 15 starting positions, especially on the lines. The real LDT shows up this week.

Chargers 24, Broncos 21

Pittsburgh (+6) at CLEVELAND

The Steelers bring in their shockingly effective red zone running attack to the bad smell Browns, who could be winless after two home games and two games down in the division. I'm thinking that will happen, along with the strong rise in cries for Brady Quinn to save the Cleveland season, because the way to beat the Steelers (i.e., exploit their mediocre offensive line) isn't something that Cleveland can do. Short of some Joe Cribbs magic in the return game, I don't see how the Browns pull this off, even at home.

Steelers 31, Browns 17

Eagles at DALLAS (+2.5)

Welcome back to those halcyon days of yore (mmm, yore) when the Monday night game was truly the most compelling matchup of the week. Last year, Dallas outclassed the Eagles by every measure in their two matchups, creating most of the curdle in the milk, especially when the most loathed player in franchise history got to celebrate on their home turf.

Both teams come off impressive beatdowns of teams that have had their season's prospects given a hard downhill shove. Dallas gets slightly more point for taking out Cleveland on the road, while the Eagles destroyed the Rams in a near shutout. Reggie Brown will be back for the Eagles, which may or may not be a good thing, if it means less looks for DeSean Jackson. Marion Barber will play with painful ribs, which hurts, but not enough.

One last thing to keep in mind here -- the spread line started at Dallas +9, and evaporated all the way down to today's number. I don't remember a line ever moving this much during the week without dramatic injury news... so you can tell there's a lot of Philly money here.

Having said all of that... Dallas is the home team and has a talent edge. It's early in the year, when the older and thinner Cowboys should have an edge. And when you bet, it's with your head, not your heart...

Cowboys 27, Eagles 24

Last Week: 11-5

20008 Year To Date: 11-5 ATS