NFL Picks, Week 1: If These Picks Blow, It's Still Preseason

Welcome to another year of losing money with class, fellow degenerates. Here's how it works: I'm going to write and pick every single damn game of this here NFL season, and you're going to, if you are smart, go the opposite way and make money. Now that we all know what to expect, let's begin. The home team is in caps, and my spread pick is in italics.

Washington at GIANTS (+3.5). How bad did the 'Skins look in the preseason? Bad enough that people are shying away from Clinton Portis as a fantasy pick not because he's kind of crazy and injury prone, but because they don't want to own a #1 running back from a team that's going to be behind by two touchdowns or more in most of their games. It's hard to imagine that Washington doesn't right the ship a little bit, at least before their offensive linemen suffer from their annual bout of polio, but oh, man, have they been bad... and it's very possible, given that their head coach hire (Jim Zorn) is a historic reach, that, well, they are going to be this bad.

The Giants, of course, are primed for the Super Bowl Hangover Year, especially with their pass rush corrupted by injury and retirement, but it won't hurt them in this game. Expect Manning to Burress after a steady diet of pounding runs, and the G-Men to pull away late.

NEW YORK 28, Washington 17.

Detroit (+4) at ATLANTA. How bad are the Falcons going to be this year? So bad that the team is having to discount the *season opener* to try to get them past the horror of an opening week blackout. Of course, this is Atlanta, home of the worst sports fans in America (you think I've forgotten about your half-empty baseball playoffs? Not so much), and the game does involve the sad-sack Falcons in Year Two of The Vick Penance. Matt Ryan gets the start and could surprise the world a little; I certainly do hate giving points on a road game involving Jon Kitna. Matter of fact, I'm not going to.

Detroit 24, ATLANTA 21.

Jets (+5.5) at MIAMI. Will Chad Pennington get his revenge? Will Brett Favre know what to do when the local media doesn't polish his knob in the post-game? Is Bill Parcells serious about this whole Ricky Williams timeshare with Ronnie Brown? And why am I asking so many questions of two teams that probably will both whiff on the playoffs, anyway?

Once again, I hate to lay the big number on the suspect road favorite, but this time I'm going to swallow my pride. I just can't see the Fish keeping the handle enough to prevent a little run up at the end here, and a bit of a coming-out party for Thomas Jones, who might even see a hole or two this year. Besides, with Favre on board, I'm pretty sure 10,000 Jets fans will fly out for the game.

Jets 31, MIAMI 24.

Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS (+3.5). Did you know that home favorites covered the spread 85% of the time when they won the game in 2007? Neither did I, because it's not exactly true, but for a second you thought you were going to have a real gambling insight, didn't you?

Anyway, the Saints are going to have a pinball offense this year if they can run the ball at all. Against the Bucs at home, they'll be able to, and the Bucs won't be able to keep pace. Take the over, too.

SAINTS 34, Bucs 24.

Houston at PITTSBURGH (+7.5). Can the Texans continue to make the slow walk up from Expansion Awful? I like their chances to stay close in Week 1, as Rashard Mendenhall is still combating rookie fumbling issues, and the Texans have some healthy weapons on offense and a much better running game than advertised. In the end, Big Ben will pull out a win, but not by the full nut.

PITTSBURGH 27, Houston 21.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at TENNESSEE

Gawd, the blog ate my Jags-Titans pick. I hate when that happens. Anyway, imagine something witty here about a game that would wrap up in about 90 minutes if you took the commercials out, because neither team will want to throw much. If you like your football from the mid-70s, this is your game of the week.

Jacksonville 17, TITANS 10.

St. Louis at PHILADELPHIA (+6.5).

Vegas and the Football Outsiders love the Eagles, which means they always come with a 1 to 2 point penalty if you are going to bet them. Andy Reid's teams have laid eggs on Opening Day before, and the Rams are going to pose a problem with their not yet stricken offensive line and weapons... but I'm thinking the Eagles defense will actually force a turnover or two this year, and the Eagle offensive line should exert its will late. It won't be a blowout, especially with the Eagle WRs all banged up, but I think they get it out and get the cover. Barely.

EAGLES 24, Rams 17.

Seattle at BUFFALO (+0).

Your classic pick something else game, in that you've got a bad road team with no healthy wideouts (the Seabags) against a road team that's mostly devoid of talent. I'm going with the Bills here, because Marshawn Lynch should be able to sway the game by himself, and Seattle is just that bad on the road.

BUFFALO 20, Seattle 17.

Kansas City at NEW ENGLAND (+13.5)

There's been some wailing and gnashing of teeth in New England over the quality of their secondary and the health of their quarterback. The first won't matter this weak, and the latter is more or less complete bull, because it's the Patriots and they lie, lie, lie. Kansas City will be behind early and often in this game.

NEW ENGLAND 38, Kansas City 17.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at BALTIMORE

The number has been creeping up here because the world is not ready for the Joe Flacco era, and people think the Bengals are good because they own them in fantasy leagues. I'm going with the home dog, because I think Ray Rice will run wild, and the Bengals are just Gut Less. But if you're betting hard on this game, you need help.

RAVENS 17, Bengals 16.

Carolina at SAN DIEGO (+7). Can the Panthers pull off a week 1 road upset? Probably not, especially with Steve Smith on the voluntarily stupid list, but hope springs eternal with Norv Turner on the opposite sideline. The Panthers might be able to run and keep this game manageable, but I suspect that they won't be able to keep drives alive on third down... and that the Chargers will run the ball late to get the cover.

CHARGERS 24, Panthers 16.

Arizona (+1) at SAN FRANCISCO. A shootout game awaits, with the road team going with their best quarterback (Kurt Warner) while the home squad will be debuting their Mike Martz Offense. Let's just say I'm not a Martz fan.

Cardinals 27, 49ERS 21.

Dallas (+6) at CLEVELAND. The more I see the Browns this year, the less I like them. The offensive line might be good, but Derek Anderson has been terrible, Jamal Lewis could get old in a hurry, and I have no confidence that their defense has gotten a lot better. Dallas is loaded with talent that knows how to win in the regular season, and I'm smelling a blowout here. It's going to be a long year in Cleveland.

Cowboys 34, BROWNS 20.

Chicago at INDIANAPOLIS (+8). The Colts can't ask for a better match-up to start their year -- a grass team, a bad quarterback, in a dome in the night game -- and yet it still has to be worrisome, given the injuries to center Jeff Saturday and health issues of Peyton Manning. But to go the other way means taking Kyle Orton, and there's no more of that sentence that needs to be written. It's the Super Bowl all over again, really, in that the Colts will run the ball and win.

COLTS 27, Bears 16.

Minnesota (+1) at GREEN BAY. Welcome to the first slap in the face to Aaron Rodgers, in that the bookkeepers aren't even making him a home favorite in their first game of the year against a team with a terrible quarterback. I think the Pack rolls here, and that the questions will be more on the Vikings quarterback situation than the Packers.

PACKERS 21, Vikings 17.

Denver (+0.5) at OAKLAND. As part of ESPN's continuing effort to make Monday Night Football utterly unwatchable, here's a home game in Oakland that will make you forget that you missed football. As usual, it will make Bronco Fan think they've got a better team than they do.

Broncos 28, RAIDERS 17.