NFL Week Two Predictions: I Just Want You To Hurt Like I Do

Before we get into the picks this week, I need to mark the passing of Ryan Grant, my RB1 in two leagues, with some music. Also, let's note that in both of my leagues, I wound up getting jobbed out of his replacement, Brandon Jackson. In one league, I was 11th out of 12th and bid the maximum FAAB, only to see the 12th team take Jackson with the maximum bid. In the other league, the asinine Yahoo default rankings made my team, which drafted fourth in a fourteen team league, tenth in the waiver rankings. This, despite the fact that I hadn't made any moves to date, and finished last in points in the first week. I wound up losing Jackson to the team that beat me in Week One. The lesson, of course, is that any league that doesn't use FAAB is asinine.

Oh, and my Eagles lost, with four starters going down, two for the season. And my picks sucked. Maximum Possible Error.

So sing it, Randy. With many Kennys, and other Good Celebrities.



As for the picks... we went 6-7-3, and in all of the pushes, I had the winning team.Not that I'm bitter. Relentlessly, continually, dangerously bitter. For days and days and days.

And with that... on to the picks!

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Baltimore at CINCINNATI (-1)

The Ravens come into this game with the sense that they aren't as good as their clippings. The Jets were really awful in their MNF game, and they've also got the short week and last year's failures against the Bengals to live down. But it's not as if the Bengals covered themselves in glory, either, getting pretty much blown out on the road in New England.

I went back and forth on this one, because there are any number of reasons to go in either direction. But what eventually swayed me here was the Bengals are at home, with the shorter week, and with a running game that was genuinely effective in their wins last year against the Ravens. With more weapons and a suspect Ravens secondary, I think the home team gets the W, with more points than you'd expect.

Bengals 27, Ravens 24

MIAMI at Minnesota (-5.5)

The Vikings have the very long week, having played on Thursday night in New Orleans. And lo, did they need it. QB Brett Favre had to be introduced to his receivers -- he's so old, you see, that he keeps forgetting their names -- and get in playing shape. If only there were some way for a QB to get in shape and familiar with his wideouts before the season started! Such a needless tragedy to befall the Favre.

As for the Fish, it's their second straight week on the road in a troublesome spot. Last week in Buffalo, they allowed the Bills to hang around forever, then benefitted from one of the great moments in recent covering the spread history, as clueless old man Chan Gailey took an intentional safety to set up an easier punt while down 13-10. No, seriously. The Bills then attempted an onside kick punt, which might have been the stupidest play ever, given that you get to fair catch the punt.

Anyway... the Vikings will win this game, mostly because RB Adrian Peterson is just a smidge better than CJ Spiller. Just a smidge. But the Fish cover. Their line play will keep them close all day.

Minnesota 24, Miami 20

Chicago at DALLAS (-8.5)

What a joke, that Calvin Johnson call to end the Bears "win" in Week One. I'm sorry, I know the letter of the law, and I know how much fun it is to downgrade a mouthy wideout, but jeez... the *feel* that you got from watching that play live was that the Lions just got hopelessly jobbed. And that the Bears escaped, more than won.

Speaking of hopeless, the way that Dallas lost their opener in DC just staggered the imagination. Had it been the Eagles blowing a game due to a RB fumbling on a meaningless play before the half, and a terrible offensive lineman getting called for an obvious hold to negate a game-winning last-second touchdown... well, I'm pretty sure that Andy Reid would have been burned in effigy, or maybe just alive. But since it's Dallas, and everything stays positive there until the weather turns cold, it's just kind of laughed off. Or laughed at.

Lost in the wreckage was that the Dallas D looked good, they will get to QB Jay Cutler early and often, and that they won't give up huge game-changing screens to RB Matt Forte. They'll also have five days to figure out how to block DE Julius Peppers, which is to say, they'll have five days to figure out how to line up second TE Martellus Bennett behind scapegoat tackle Alex Barron. Look for WR Dez Bryant to go off here; he's distressingly good.

Cowboys 31, Bears 20

PHILADELPHIA at Detroit (+3)

I'm on record for wanting the Fat Man, Andy Reid, gone from my favorite team for years now. I just don't see him ever becoming enough of a game-day coach to get the team over the hump, and while he's an excellent develper of talent and talent evaluator, that's no longer enough to win in the league. And both traits were on full display in last week's loss to Green Bay.

Reid the talent evaluator brought in QB Michael Vick when no one, save people who think that electrifying single plays are better than a lifetime of sound decision making, really wanted the guy. He force-fed Vick into the offense last year, despite middling at best results. And when starting QB Kevin Kolb, in the midst of one of those Not Yet Settled Games that previous QB Donovan McNabb always had time to work through, got taken out due to poor rush awareness and a borderline horse collar tackle inducing concussion... well, Talent Reid had Vick warmed and ready. And it almost led to a huge comeback against a team that everyone more or less sees as a playoff club.

Unfortunately, Talent Reid then met Game Reid. And Game Reid, especially after the loss of FB Leonard Weaver and C Jamal Jackson, had no idea what to do in short yardage, and Vick's not exactly going to bail you out of those situations, sadly. Catch-22, and if you think Vick is going to know to run in the touchdown opportunity in the penultimate drive, and audible out of the terrible center dive play that ended things... well, um, no. Something about the length of his leash goes here, but that would be, you know, tasteless.

The Lions just aren't far enough advanced away from the Millen Era to win this game; the secondary isn't up to par yet, the running game can't sustain drives to keep the ball on long drives, and there will be a large contingent of Road Eagle Fan taking advantage of the economic downturn of Detroit to mitigate the dome field advantage. But it will be close for an uncomfortably long time, mostly because the Eagles just aren't that great in the red zone.

Eagles 27, Lions 17

Arizona at ATLANTA (-7)

The Falcons desperately need to diversify their passing attack to step forward, with the clear reason why being demonstrated on the Troy Polamalu pick; the Steelers just sold out on WR Roddy White, and QB Matt Ryan couldn't go somewhere else. I think they'll get there, because (a) Ryan's actually a reasonable QB, and (b) they won't face the Steelers and Polamalu every week.

This week, they get the startling weak Cardinals, who sweated out a win over the Rams where QB Derek Anderson seemed OK, but only if you didn't actually watch it. In the dome on the road, the Cards will turn it over early, and Anderson will fulfill his Aaron Brooks-esque destiny of producing better numbers than visuals. I like the Falcons here by a pretty solid amount.

Falcons 34, Cardinals 20

Kansas City at CLEVELAND (-2.5)

Almost an unfair week for the Chiefs, who played the latest MNF game possible, then get to go cross-country to face the completely under the radar Browns. Cleveland had a win in Tampa in the bag, but then Jake Delhomme struck, and that was that, really.

This week, I think Eric Mangini learns his lesson, and the two-headed monster of Peyton Hillis and James Harrison puts up over 150 yards on the ground against the Chiefs. More importantly, the Browns defense controls the line of scrimmage and makes the dump-off stylings of softballer QB Matt Cassel look as weak as he really is. Finally, if you really love punt returns, this might be the game of the decade for you. Between Joshua Cribbs and Dexter McCluster, you are nearly at even-money for seeing one of these teams break it open with a return. Probably the Browns.

Cleveland 17, Chiefs 13

Buffalo at GREEN BAY (-13.5)

Honestly, they could make this line 20 and I'd still take the Pack. Buffalo might be the worst team in the NFL, and they might be the worst team in the CFL. Sure, the defense can get after it a bit, but I've seen better offenses at the high school level, and on the road in Green Bay, with QB Aaron Rodgers smarting over his sub-par stat line from Philadelphia and needing to take heat off new RB1 Brandon Jackson, it's pinball time. Especially when the defense turns over the Bills and gives Rodgers the completely unnecessary short field.

Packers 41, Bills 13

PITTSBURGH at Tennessee (-6)

Really not sure why the Titans are getting the big number here, and it's time to make the superstitious Steeler fans who read this column cry. I guess the narrow Falcon win spooks the line, or the world just thinks that Big Ben is more important than he actually is. I don't see the home team moving the ball easily in this game, which makes a big cover a bad bet, even if you are convinced that the Steeler QB situation isn't good enough to win on the road yet. The team's history of doing just fine with backups isn't to be ignored.

Steelers 17, Titans 16

Tampa at CAROLINA (NL)

This one is waiting on the concussion news of starting Panther QB Matt Moore, but I'm going to take the Panthers regardless of which QB gets the ball. Tampa is game and much better than last year, but this one just comes down to the road QB turning it over more than the home QB, and Jon Fox and the Panthers just handing it off 45 times until the clcks reads zeroes. It's a low margin way to win, but against the Bucs, it will be enough.

Panthers 20, Bucs 10

St. Louis at OAKLAND (-3.5)

The Raiders haven't covered in forever as a favorite, not that they've had a ton of practice at it. They also just lost by 25 points to the Titans in a game where QB Jason Campbell looked bad, the WRs looked worse, and the defense got shredded. So why take them? Because the Rams won one game last year, have never been much on the road or on grass, and might be the only team in the league with worse wideouts than the Raiders. Has anyone considered the idea that Raider Fan does not sell out the building because he values his eyesight?

Raiders 17, Rams 6

Seattle at DENVER (-3)

Are the Seahawks secretly good? I doubt it; that win at home against the Niners felt more like the road team spitting the bit of division leader than the home team really having a lot under the hood. And even when the NW Birds were good, they weren't much on the road. At altitude, against a Denver team that might just have something interesting going on with the offense (QB Kyle Orton keeps putting up numbers, new RB Laurence Maroney might get a re-do of his whole sad career with Josh McReynolds trading for him), they'll remember that they have a rookie coach and a roster in transition.

Denver 24, Seahawks 16

HOUSTON at Washington (+3)

Time for the Texans to finally prove that they are for real. Last week at home against Indy, they took advantage of the injury to S Bob Sanders and the sudden pussification of the Colt defense to run RB Arian Foster crazy. This week, against a Redskins team that will spend the week staring at film and thinking about 8 in the box, QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson get back to basics, and the Redskins offense will not be able to keep up.

Texans 31, Redkins 20

JACKSONVILLE at San Diego (-8)

San Diego is 5-10-1 against the spread in the first month of the season under Norv Turner, since he took the job in 2007. Yes, Charger Fan, you've had Norv for that long. Amazing, isn't it? This week, they get the 1-0 Jags, who will run and defend well enough to cover a Charger team on a short week.

A small note about the Chargers: if and when this team is out of playoff contention, expect a gruesome injury to happen to QB Philip Rivers, This guy shows up his teammates more than any QB I can rememebr, and I go back to Dan Marino in his desperate years and the wonderous career that was Jeff George. If the Chargers ever wind up 5-9 and mathematically eliminated, count on a series where the line just decides that enough is enough, and they can step aside on a hot blitz as the defense makes a wish. A concussion can be a learning experience, and with the Chargers no longer having Vincent Jackson to pressure a defense deep with efficiency, Billy Volek can make all of the checkdown and mid-range throws to get them through a game.

Chargers 24, Jags 17

NEW ENGLAND at New York Jets (-1.5)

From watching Week One, there's no way you can take the Jets, and this line has moved three points since the open. The Pats certainly have everything going their way, coming into this game. The win over the Bengals was bigger than the score indicated, the young TEs give QB Tom Brady even more toys to play with, the defense looks quick if not sure, and with Maroney gone, the running game might be more settled.

Which makes me really want to take the Jets, especially since having CB Darrell Revis means that coach Rex Ryan can scheme differently for the Pats than every other team in the league... but not now, and especially not when his best hope for a ball-control ground pound game, RB Shonn Greene, seems to be battling inner demons that cause fumbling and drops, and if you can tell how the club is giving QB Mark Sanchez more to do than what he had as a rookie, you've got better eyes than mine.

After this game, the full-scaled panic will hit the Jets, and the Pats will seem to have the world on a string. But remember, it's a long season.

Patriots 27, Jets 20

NEW YORK GIANTS at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Every four years, whether we want it or not, we get a Manning Bowl. Everything points to the Giants here, except for the fact that it's a Sunday Night Game that the Colts are treating as a must-have (seriously, starting 0-2 with two home losses is a Big Problem), and betting against Peyton under the lights is a Bad Idea. But it's also equally difficult to bet on a team that just gave up over 230 yards to an undrafted running back in a pass-first offense.

If nothing else, it's really hard to lay out 5.5 points on it. Give me the Giants to cover but not win, and if Peyton isn't perfect with the turnovers, maybe even do more than that. This Colt defense last week was a unit that the perfect storm of suck: not physical enough to ever force a long third down, and completely reliant on being quick on long third downs to change possession.

Colts 27, Giants 24

NEW ORLEANS at San Francisco (+4.5)

The argument for the Niners are that they need it more, they are better than what they showed in Seattle, and the Saints have a cross-country flight and slow, soggy Candlestick turf to deal with. But on the other hand, the Saints are a terrifying offense on any surface, the Bay Area in September is not exactly the Arctic Tundra in terms of making a visiting QB feel unwelcome, and putting anything behind the Alex Smith to Michael Crabtree missed connection network of pain is just beyond my ability to gamble. Expect QB Drew Brees to get 300 yards and 3 TDs, and for everyone to really wonder if they overestimated the Niners.

Saints 34, Niners 24

Week One: 6-7-3

Lifetime: 269-259-16