NFL Week Three Predictions: Nothing Left For Me To Tell You

I had such wittiness planned for you this week, Dear Reader. I was going to come up with some convoluted entry point of how the NFC East went 1-3 last week, and bridge the Redskins' choke job against the Texans into the sudden December feeling in Dallas about Tony Romo, and cap it off in a mean way about how Brandon Jacobs showed more effort in discarding his helmet than the Giants did in discarding their pride.

But then Andy Reid had to go and blow my mind, and the mind of everyone in the region, and... I'm supposed to just move off that, really. At least for the majority of this column, which is about the whole damned league, after all.

Oh well oh well oh well.

Along with going 6-1-1 in the early going, then watch the profit turn past tense.

Oh well oh well oh well.

(Jack White, of course, says this cooler than I could.)



And with that... on to the picks!

Tennessee at NY GIANTS (-3)

The first of two games involving NFC East teams that were supposed to be good, but may not be. Both teams come in good and humbled, as the Titans blew a home game against a rival starting their #2 (and then #3) QB due to rampant turnovers. The Giants, of course, threw poo and helmets at Peyton Manning and the Colts on SNF. And yes, David Tyree's helmet catch is the only thing keeping Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin employed at this point.

The Titans will start QB Vince Young in this one and hope for a bounce-back, because he really stunk last week. (Kerry Collins was better, but still Kerry Collins.) Much more worrisome for the Giants is RB Chris Johnson, who is coming off the rare bad game and could do real damage against a defense that hasn't played up to expectations for a long time now. But the Titan defense doesn't seem to be making big plays, either.

I think the Giants win this one by the barest of margins -- maybe a single deep ball, or a special teams turnover -- mostly because I just don't trust Young at all right now, especially on the road. But the only sure bet here is ugliness.

Giants 20, Titans 16

PITTSBURGH at Tampa Bay (-3)

The one good pick I made this year in fantasy? The Steeler defense. The team is 2-0 and looking good and nasty, with only one touchdown against in eight quarters of football, and that one was late in the Titans game last week. They will face a surprisingly peppy Bucs team that has seen sparks from QB Joshua Freeman and WR Mike Syracuse Williams, and you always have to wonder how a cold-weather team will travel to Florida in September. Mix in the fact that they'll be starting Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich (kudos to Byron for just taking the release, new lower salary, and starting job -- in other news, I think he does the coach's laundry now), and it gets well and truly dicey...

But then you have that ball-hawking defense, and the fact that Freeman has been well and truly giving with the ball in his career to date. I think the Steelers score once on the ground, once in the kicking game, and once on defense. And that will be enough, because in addition to the turnover issues, the Bucs just won't be able to extend drives.

Steelers 17, Bucs 10

CINCINNATI at Carolina (+1.5)

Here's all you need to know about the Bengals: their most targeted receiver is Terrell Owens. No, seriously. Mostly because QB Carson Palmer has been hard on the eyes, and lucky to avoid many more picks due to ham-handed defensive backs. But the road Bengals won't need him to throw it more than 25 times in this game, and the underrated Bengals defense will force turnover from QB Jimmy Clausen, who now has the gig over ineffective starter QB Matt Moore.

So if you enjoyed 1970s era football, where the teams ran it twice as often as they threw it, this is the game for you. And if the Bengals can grind out a win over a Ravens team with a much better defensive front seven than the Panthers, they should be able to cover this one as well.

Bengals 24, Panthers 13

Cleveland at BALTIMORE (-8.5)

Oh, poor Cleveland Fan. The Ravens, your historic DNA, are the team that you *want* to root for; genuinely tough, with a longstanding dominant defense, solid running game and continually restocking front office that just doesn't whiff that often on draft picks.

Instead, you have the perpetual expansion Browns, who have managed to have the first bad team in NFL history with a really, really good offensive line. That's just how weak the Jake Delhomme / Seneca Wallace combo is, and the WRs are no better. I also think that starting RB Jerome Harrison is nothing special, and short yardage / TD vulture Peyton Hillis doesn't have the hands to be a front-line starter.

The Ravens are bound to have a bit of an offensive breakout, especially with QB Joe Flacco. Expect him and RB Ray Rice to have big games, and the Baltimore defense is also going to be a real strong play.

Ravens 31, Browns 13

Dallas at HOUSTON (-3)

The Texans get a home game to try to start 3-0, earn the title of best team in Texas, and keep the Colts at bay in the AFC South. And just when you want to get entirely behind them, you wind up actually watching the game, and you see Texans coach Gary Kubiak give you the full mouse testes display in overtime. Even though it worked and they won the game, it's still unsettling; that sort of thing never ends well.

And speaking of not ending well, there's the Cowboys, who have managed to combine surprisingly shaky QB play, poor RB work and a turnstile offensive line to lose both winnable games. The poster child for the club might be Felix Jones, who decided to follow the 2009 Steve Slaton move of putting on weight to be a scatback that's worth, well, scat. If he follows the full pattern, he can return kicks for the Cowboys in 2011, with Tashard Choice becoming the breakout star that he could have been.

Oh, and one last thing. If the Cowboys continue to lose games like this, will MLB Keith Brookings continue to get airplay to show the world how good of a leader he is? Because that kind of thing never gets old, seems calculated, or help an over-the-hill guy get a post-career payday...

Texans 34, Cowboys 24

SAN FRANCISCO at Kansas City (-1)

The 2-0 Chiefs get a home game against the short week Niners, an 0-2 club that should still win their division, mostly because their division is comprised of teams that might struggle in a good Division I conference. But the Niners do actually have some athletes, and the Chiefs might be the most paper tiger 2-0 club that you have ever seen, since QB Matt Cassel has looked absolutely miserable. Assuming the Niners don't turn the ball over or give up big plays in special teams, they will win this game. And yes, that is assuming a lot.

Niners 24, Chiefs 17

DETROIT at Minnesota (-11)

The line shows that the betting public still thinks well of this Vikings team, which means that they really haven't watched much of their games. They could have won last week's home game against the Dolphins, but the offensive line wasn't able to give RB Adrian Peterson any kind of hole on fourth and goal, and QB Brett Favre is looking like that lovable loser that played in New York in 2008.

The Lions are a hard-luck 0-2, with a clear rookie of the year candidate in RB Jahvid Best, but not enough coverage from the secondary to seal the deal. I don't actually think that they can pull off the upset here; QB Shaun Hill isn't up to the task, and Peterson will run all day. But a cover? Sure, that can happen.

Vikings 27, Lions 20

Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND (-13.5)

This year's Patriots are starting to look a lot like last year's Patriots -- a front-running team that outclasses bad teams, and gets smacked hard by true power clubs, assuming those clubs don't lose the turnover battle. They'll have one of those classic 30+ point games at home for a fan base that won't be satisfied by anything they could possibly do this week, since the Bills are not the Jets, and no one expects a team with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm being able to avoid turnovers, let alone move the sticks or put up points. This one will be over by the half, and stay just close enough to make you worried about the cover.

Patriots 34, Bills 16

ATLANTA at New Orleans (-5)

The Saints did everything they could to lose in San Francisco on Monday night, and what was the most telling point was how weak they looked in the red zone with the game on the line... because they had no Reggie Bush at that point in the game. They are also 2-0 despite not really looking very good in either game, with the defense coming up with timely turnovers against teams that are just not real good at taking care of the ball, or salting a game away with good line play.

Neither of those points describes this Falcons team, who lost in Pittsburgh in week one before dismantling the Cardinals at home in week two. I picked them to win the division before the year began, and this is the week where they serve notice that there is a new power in the South. Look for a ball control game from Matt Ryan, peppered by enough play action damage to drive a lead and the outright upset.

Falcons 27, Saints 24

WASHINGTON at St. Louis (+3.5)

How good is Donovan McNabb at throwing the deep ball? Good enough to actually get one to Joey Galloway, who in his current age and state is, in fact, only reasonably athletic when counted as a coach. The 'Skins looked terrible on defense at home against the Texans last week, but there is a world of difference between Houston and these Rams, who are at least two good years away from being any kind of threat to a .500 team. And that's the Skins this year. Oh, and kudos to Mike Shanahan for getting rid of fossil RB Larry Johnson, and starting the carousel that is his RB situation every year. Remember when he was the biggest enemy to fantasy football players? Now they are all like him.

Redskins 23, Rams 17

PHILADELPHIA at Jacksonville (+3)

We've already discussed Vick at length today in the blog, so let's talk about the Jags. When QB David Garrard plays well, as he did in the season-opening win against Denver, the Jags are dangerous, and as last week's evisceration by Jahvid Best shows, Team Green has serious issues when defending speed backs like Maurice Jones-Drew. TE Marcedes Lewis may also be worrisome here. But half of the stadium will be wearing green -- you are welcome, Jags Management, for the rare probable sellout -- and only Aaron Kampmann gets after the passer here. Garrard is the kind of guy who doesn't do well in the face of a complex and varied defense, and the Eagles will be able to sustain drive after drive here, assuming they don't cover the ground with penalty flags. It'd be real helpful if that trend stopped, by the way -- or if the defense doesn't spit the bit on perfectly good covers by failing to understand the meaning of prevent defense.

Eagles 31, Jaguars 16

OAKLAND at Arizona (-4)

Which scrap heap QB would you rather have? Give me Oakland's Bruce Gradkowski, who will have to do a lot this week as teams start to key on surprise workhorse RB Darren McFadden, who seems primed to erase that Draft Bust status and further cuckold the career of Michael Bush, who just seems doomed to wasted years and late-season relevance. It's never comfortable taking the Raiders on the road, but that lack of comfort is only matched by the spastic misfiring of the Cardinals QB situation, with Derek Anderson and undrafted BYU rookie Max "Detmer" Hall playing a game of Who Can Waste Larry Fitzgerald more. This week, against the Asomugha Menace and his own horrible QB, I wouldn't be shocked if Fitzy winds up under 40 net yards, and with Beanie Wells being Beanie Hurt, the Cards just won't have enough to win. Next stop, 4-12.

Raiders 19, Cardinals 13

San Diego at SEATTLE (+6)

Man, I hate to take the Hawks to do much of anything, but Norv Turner in September is a magical thing, and the Seahawks home field advantage is substantial. Add in the fact that starting RB TJ Mathews might be less than 100%, and that the Charger defense doesn't get after the passer enough, and I'm seeing enough for a late cover. But if you are asking me to be really confident about this one, you are asking too much.

Chargers 27, Seahawks 24

INDIANAPOLIS at Denver (+5.5)

Which Colts team shows up this week? The one that exposes smoke, age and mirror defenses for what they are, which is this Bronco team. The emergence of WR Demaryius Thomas will actually hurt the home team this week, as it will provoke a lack of patience that will prove to be the Bronco undoing. As the Texans showed, you beat the Colts by running with success and limiting the number of possesions that Peyton Manning has to work with. With Thomas looking like a true #1 wideout already, Denver will try to win the game straight up at home. Bad idea.

Colts 31, Broncos 20

NY Jets at MIAMI (-1)

I've seen this movie before, Jets Fan. You get a team that's wildly entertaining, capable of big satisfying full punking wins against division rivals, especially at home, and then they spit the bit on the road. Especially when they are feeling good about themselves. The Dolphins fly under the radar, and don't seem to look like a good matchup for New York with their reliance on the running game, but with WR Brandon Marshall now able to give them at least a credible decoy, the Fish are a much harder matchup. And the sudden auto-ejection of WR Braylon Edwards, aka the only deep threat on a team that seems at times legally prohibited from throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield anyway, will make this a very easy week of preparation for that underrated Fish defense. The East is looking more and more like Miami's to lose.

Dolphins 20, Jets 17

GREEN BAY at Chicago (+1)

The MNF game is a battle of two teams that are 2-0, and while the Packers haven't been quite as impressive as advertised, they still should be favored by much more than a point against a team that should have lost to the Lions in Week One, and will watch their QB get sacked a half dozen times or more in this game. Green Bay really does need to deal for a RB immediately -- Brandon Jackson really isn't very good at all, and never has been -- but they won't need one for this rabble, especially if their defense gives them the occasional short field. They will.

Week Two: 8-6-2

2010: 14-13-5

Lifetime: 270-260-16