NBA Conference Finals Picks

For all of you keeping track of this -- which is to say, me and The Truth, aka the only other person on Five Tool Tool who writes about The Association -- I'm down thirty points in our picking game. Which means that it's time to throw it deep and go for the big win. Which is kind of freeing, in a way, since it means that I can pick the series that I want. (In other words, these picks are a stone-cold loser. Run away.)

Celtics v. Magic

The sense here is that once the Celtics got everything hitting during their series with the Cavs, they've become the unstoppable team that won the championship two years ago. Only better, since Rajon Rondo is now the best two-way point guard in the Association.

But I'm still not seeing it. Here's why.

1) The Magic have home-court advantage

2) They also haven't lost in six months, which is to say, the length of time that the NBA spends on its first two rounds, regardless of the length of the series

3) Kendrick Perkins is hurting (knee problems), and is going to have real problems keeping up with Dwight Howard

4) Paul Pierce is shooting under 40% for the post-season, and is really struggling from the arc

5) The Celtics, as a team, are really having issues shooting free throws (under 74%) in the post-season

6) The bench, with the possible exception of Tony Allen and the occasional non-knucklehead moment of Rasheed Wallace, isn't giving them much... and the games are actually going to happen every other day now

But enough about the Celtics. Let's talk about the emerging team that no one in America, outside of Florida, seems to want to give any credit to. Here are the reasons why the Magic will win, rather than the Celtics lose.

1) Jameer Nelson is himself again, and he's pretty good. The St. Joe's guard has given the Magic 20/3/5 with 52% shooting from the floor and a near 4 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. I'm not saying that he's going to do more than fight Rondo to a draw, but at least the point guard battle won't be a total wash, the way it was in five out of six games in the Cavs series.

2) Vince Carter doesn't have to be the best player on this team for the Magic to win. Howard might be, or Nelson, or even Rashard Lewis. If you need Carter to win four out of seven games for you, you're going down. But a game or two, with a Ray Allen Is Suddenly Old feeling? Possible. Very possible.

3) The Magic have athletes, and will actually use them. Mike Brown signed his death warrant by refusing to use JJ Hickson, choosing to go down with dinosaurs. The Magic can't do that, because they don't even have one on the roster. The bigs here are Howard, Lewis and Marcin Gortat, all of whom are (a) young, (b) able to run, and (c) not needing the ball in the blocks to be effective. The Celtics are a great defensive team in the half court, because they care, have all played basketball since the Reagan Administration, and have defensive cohesion. But in the open court, the miles make things hard.

4) The Magic have defensive stoppers. Mikael Pietrus is a hammer, and could make Pierce or Allen disappear in crunch time -- whoever has been hot in the first three quarters. Matt Barnes isn't going to be the walkover for Kevin Garnett that Antwan Jamison was. Even Jason Williams and JJ Redick try on defense now. It's contaigous.

5) Stan van Gundy may be the most irritating coach in Christendom, but he's still effective for this team. His rotations are consistent, he knows how and when to use a timeout, and his teams can win different types of games -- they don't panic when Howard is in foul trouble, or when the threes aren't hitting. I keep waiting for them to tune him out, and if things go badly for them in this series, he's probably done. But if this series is 2-2 after four games, I don't think SVG is losing to Doc Rivers.

6) The bench. Williams is a real point, and will be part of the reason why Rondo isn't the best player on the court in the later games in the series. Pietrus is due for a coming out party of national appreciation. Redick can hit an open three, and in this offense, there's always an open three. Unless Big Baby Davis runs roughshod on the boards, I don't see the bench minutes going to the Celtics, which means too many minutes for the starters... and a fade by the end of the series.

Can the Magic lose this? Of course. Howard could falter in the spotlight. The team doesn't shoot free throws well enough to close out games. Rondo could be so good that Nelson gets eradicated. If Carter goes into Hero Mode, the Magic are going home.

But in the end, the home court, the athleticism, and the three-point shooting is going to be too much. Magic in seven.

Suns v. Lakers

There are just two reasons to think that the Suns can win this series. Their names are Steve Nash and Goran Dragic.

In every series aginst the Lakers, mostly because no one can imagine a team standing up to the Laker bigs, you have to hope for the opposing team's point guard to wipe out Derek Fisher. And in the early games, it seems like that could happen... but by the late games, the opposing point has been beaten down by the Laker bigs on pick and rolls, and that's when Fisher starts hitting the back-breaking threes, and the Laker offense becomes unstoppable.

Against this, we have Nash... the first old and effective star point since John Stockton. And now, after his masterful evisceration of the Spurs, Dragic.

In previews for this series, people are talking about whether or not Jason Richardson will be able to match up Kobe Bryant. He won't. He never has. Maybe once or twice in a home game, but never in Los Angeles, and not when it matters. It's just not going to happen, not even with Kobe in advancing age, and not even in a speed game, which the Suns will try to play (and frequently fail). But if Nash and Dragic can make the Lake Show play Kobe on the point guard, maybe Richardson can finally be a factor. It's possible.

Speaking of Kobe, he'll face more than Richardson here. Grant Hill will be able to stay with him in the low block, and as he used to be a star, won't give up the bailout calls that most players in the Association get whistled for when the Laker star can't get it going. Jared Dudley has been an assassin in the first two series, and will also be a factor here -- especially if he gets minutes against the Laker bench.

But it all starts with the points. If the Phoenix guards can control the flow of the game, they'll help to mitigate the overwhelming advantage of the Laker bigs. In a slowdown game, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and especially Pau Gasol will eat Amar'e Stoudemire, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson. But if the tempo is up, and Stoudemire can get to the rack against one man instead of three, and Frye can hit some threes, there's a chance that it won' t be critical. (This is also where the mention of Robin Lopez comes in, not that I'm really expecting him to do much. But there's a dream.)

It's hard to imagine the Suns overcoming home-court advantage and the control on the game's tempo that Phil Jackson exerts. It's also hard to imagine that the Lake Show won't get every call, or that the Suns will hit threes in crunch time.

But then you come back to Nash and Dragic, and you wonder. Then you hear more about Bynum playing with a torn miniscus -- a huge problem -- and you wonder if he's going to have any impact in this series. The Lakers have a free throw problem too, and don't shoot threes all that well, especially Ron Artest, who is somehow still taking more of them than anyone else on the team. I'm not sure who Artest guards in this series, as there really isn't a player that he matches up well against.

Is it enough? Probably not. But it wasn't supposed to be enough to beat the Spurs, either. At some point, you have to believe that change has come, and when you look at players like Dudley, Dragic and how far Hill has come on the defensive end... well, OK. Let's roll. Phoenix in six.