The Pro Bowl Pick

I know that this is coming a little later than usual, and that the readers of this fine blog have been itching to put some money down on the Pro Bowl, but needed my sub-.500 pick consultation before going to the window.

And to this, I say: well played. Gambling on a meaningless exhibition game that the players don't care about and you don't even want to watch isn't the sign of a serious addiction: it's a sign that you finish what you start, dammit. Be proud of yourselves!

Besides, now when you try to recover from an entire season of bad picks by wagering too much on the Pro Bowl, you'll have the nut you need to make a real payday from the Super Bowl. I'm not even sure why they are still calling it gambling!

AFC (+2.5) over NFC

The AFC usually has the edge in these things, since they've been the slightly to significantly better conference for most of the 21st century. But with the NFL's roundly ridiculed move of the Pro Bowl to the Super Bowl bye week, and the dozens of players who have begged off due to injury or Super Bowl participation, the better conference has really taken it hard at the quarterback level. Instead of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, the trigger men will be Matt Schaub (good), Vince Young (um, really?) and David Garrard (downright comical). If I were coach Norv Turner, I'd punch myself in the face. A lot. But I'd also want to fake an injury to the non-Schaub guys.

Saving the AFC's bacon will be the top tier RBs (Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice), and WR Brandon Marshall, who might be in line for a huge day was he tries to impress the other 31 teams enough to get him out of Denver. (Personally, I'd take that bet. Chicago, make a deal!) The AFC also brings tight end Antonio Gates and Heath Miller to the contest, both of whom are going to be motivated more than the usual walk through stars. (Gates, to lose the taste of those drops in the Jets playoff loss, and Miller, because this might be the only time he ever goes, and he's actually damned good.)

On defense, as always in the Pro Bowl, you aren't allowed to blitz. (That's why it's such a compelling game!) So what you need are speed DLs who can get to the QB anyway against a disinterested tackle, and secondary players that want to tackle and make a pick. I like Elvis Dumervil of Denver and the Pittsburgh LBs (James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley) to do that more than their NFC counterparts (DeMarcus Ware and Jared Allen, both of which look like prime Mail It In candidates from their playoff runs). The AFC also has a very fresh Brian Dawkins in what has to be his final appearance, and I suspect he's going to make someone on his side care, while Darelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha might want to play a game of Who's Better on their side of the ball. The NFC counters with Asante Samuel and two (wow) Dallas corners, Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman, none of whom look like they can do anything with a motivated Marshall. Strong advantage, AFC.

And in the end, the reason why you take the AFC... I think Matt Schaub makes this game his in a big way, as part of a No Longer Flying Under The Radar stat campaign. He was better than Tom Brady this year; a lot better. It's time that the rest of the world knew that, too.

Finally, just because it's the only lasting memory any non-Redskins fan will ever have of the man that does not involve his death, we repeat this little piece of Sean Taylor video as our annual Pro Bowl pick tradition.



Notably, it's the only lasting memory anyone has of a Bills player being in this game, either...