NFL Semi Final Picks

At this stage in the NFL playoffs, it's all about picking the games, if any, that the home teams with the bye will blow. Nearly every year, there are some, and the real trick is to find the teams that are actually vulnerable, rather than just running up against a team that looked hot last week, and will look gassed this week.

It's also important to realize that there is no real system to this, at this point in the devolution of NFL competitiveness, and that Turnovers Rule All. Take last week, when Ravens QB Joe Flacco looked like JaMarcus Russell for three quarters against the Patriots. Thanks to multiple Patriot turnovers and a big Ravens lead from RB Ray Rice running wild, it didn't matter. Or last Saturday in Cincy, where the Jets pretty much put QB Mark Sanchez's manhood in a blind trust for 2010, and won the game going away despite giving him less (much less) than 20 attempts to throw the ball.

Does that mean the running game is back to 1970s levels of prominence? Hell and No, as the Packers - Cardinals game showed, along with the fact that all of the remaining games will be indoors or in warm weather, where the passing game matters more. Finally, don't believe anyone who tells you home field doesn't matter at this point, because the crowd noise just isn't as loud as it used to be... because the NFC Domes are Old School Non-Pleasure Palaces, which means the fans are tight enough to the field, and the rich swells far enough away from it, to make the noise matter.

Last week, this column was an Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings wide open throw away from a miracle comeback win and a 4-0 opening week, albeit with the blood money of picking Dallas to win. This week, we'll try to keep the momentum going for the greatest suckout .500 year in tout history. And with that... on to the picks!

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ARIZONA at New Orleans (-7)

Do you want to put money against Kurt Warner with a significant point spread? I'm not down with it, despite the Cardinals getting short rest and the Saints in a road game, because it's really not like the man has no experience in lighting up a playoff scoreboard in a dome. At this point, Warner's post-season record is getting to be Montana-esque, and the best part of his resume for Hall of Fame consideration. Sure, he might be in the midst of hanging it up (say it ain't so, Kurt! No one needs to see Matt Leinart ruin the fantasy value of a half dozen guys!), but he's still got the best backs he's ever had in Red clothing (Beanie Wells, especially, is becoming Mini Beasty), and an offensive line that's doing fine work to keep him clean.

Against a Saints team that's had real problems in getting to the QB and forcing turnovers in the second half of the year, there's no question that the Cardinals will score points; the over for this game is currently 56.5, and Vegas can't get it high enough, really. QB Drew Brees, of course, will spend the week of film mopping up drool, since the Pack went crazy Broadway-style for the last three quarters of the game.

As for who wins this one... well, my preseason Super Bowl pick was the Saints, and as much as I like Cap'n Jebus, going against Brees at home is also a no sale. I also suspect that S Darren Sharper will make a play or two, the NoLa crowd will have an impact, and the probable return of WR Anquan Boldin will not be a panacea for the Cardinals; like Brian Westbrook with the Eagles, the team seems better without him. But seven points is a lot to lay in a pinball game, especially when this one has Late Cover written all over it. Oh, and watch for Dueling Goat Work from the kickers, since neither Neal Rackers nor Garrett Hartley has been exactly dependable.

Saints 34, Cardinals 31

Baltimore at INDIANAPOLIS (-7)

Karma, of course, would dictate that the Colts spit the bit after a long self-imposed layoff, against the road-ready, rough and tumble Ravens. And if this game were, say, played five years ago when the Raven defense was for real, rather than doing it with smoke and mirrors on passing plays... or in the rules of ten years ago, when you could jam lightweight wideouts like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie at the line... well, I'd probably still go with the home team. And here's why.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and Ravens WR Derrick Mason.

Let's be charitable in the case of the second-year QB from Delaware; he's really not right physically. Rollouts against the Patriots looked slow and painful, which is kind of astounding given the fact that Flacco's young and hasn't been unduly punished by defenses in his career. (Hell, the man had wheels enough last year to catch trick play passes.) The physical issue also might have contributed to his poor start, but before we spend too much time excusing away things, it's been months since the Raven attack has been potent... and that's with three productive running backs and an offensive line that turned the Patriots into substratum.

Which leads us to Mason. He's had one of the most remarkable careers n NFL history for a guy with limited physical skills and middling quarterbacks, but he's at the end now; any decent #1 CB can make him disappear, and the only thing that makes him a #1 here is that (a) Flacco fixates on him, and (b) everyone else on the roster is worse. (And yes, I just called Steve McNair middling. Sad life, great winner, but the attack was always more game management than aerial circus.) With TE Todd Heap a little dicey following a stinger near the end of the Pats game, the Ravens just don't have enough weapons, beyond Rice out of the backfield, to get past 200 yards in the air for this game, even if it's a shootout.

As for defense, on the road in Indy against a QB that is, beyond any doubt, much better than Tom Brady (we just made Masshole Fan's head explode, but that would involve them still reading about football, rather than going with speed to the Celtics), the Ravens aren't going to have a big early lead to make the running game an all-consuming issue. Sure, Rice will do damage, and RB LaRon McClain will convert in short yardage. But Mistakes Will Be Made, and when they do, it's Colts QB Peyton Manning to TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, Et Cetera, Et Cetera. You've seen this movie before.

Colts 27, Ravens 17

DALLAS at Minnesota (-3)

For the last month, the Vikings have been Dead High Seed Walking. Only a Week 17 fold for the ages from the Giants and the Eagles collapse gets them this playoff game at home, and for their trouble, they get the white-hot Cowboys, playing with house money after saving their coach and winning their very first playoff game of the millennium. (First the Yankees win, and now this. And the millennium had such promise.)

I'd love to take the Vikings here; they have the run/pass balance that could give the Dallas defense real issues, as well as a real home dome advantage and the bye week edge. But unfortunately, they've also got core weapons -- RB Adrian Peterson and QB Brett Favre -- that do not exercise Ball Control, and if we've learned anything from this playoff season, Ball Control Is Everything.

On offense for the road team, even Scapegoat WR Roy Williams had some use last week, and I think the Cowboys even got a break from RB Marion Barber getting hurt last week, since it means more touches for RB Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Against the Vikings and their very large LB issues -- shades of the Eagle games there -- QB Tony Romo will have easy throws to TE Jason Witten, slant routes to WR Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton, and good play for the bread-and-butter draws and delays that are the heart of the Dallas attack.

Finally, there's this. Last week, Romo lost his playoff monkey. Favre has spent most of this century feeding his. When the chips are down, he will be as well.

Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

New York at SAN DIEGO (-9)

There are a lot of reasons to think that the Jets can cover this game, if not win it. They are as follows.

1) Norv Turner is the Charger coach

2) San Diego is terrible at running the football

3) Darelle Revis is the best corner in football, and could easily get a ball or two

4) The Jets have the line play to take an early lead and eat the clock, which should lead at least to a cover

5) New York's got a (much) better defense, and

6) They are playing with house money.

Now, here's the reason why they won't.

1) QB Mark Sanchez.

2) Pound for pound, the best and deepest receiving group of receiving targets in the NFL.

For the past month, the Jets have managed to avoid any chance of Sanchez losing games for them. With a run-pass ratio trending towards 3-to-1, big leads and three men from the offensive line going to the Pro Bowl, the passing game has been limited to slants, bubble screens, play action passes to TE Dustin Keller and the occasional fly route. (To be fair, he's actually pretty good at the latter. The man will have a career.)

But on the road against a team with plus receivers all over the board -- I especially think that RB Darren Sproles will do something on a screen, and TE Antonio Gates is having a huge year -- I can't see the Jets running off and hiding with a lead. And if they fall behind by more than a score, and Sanchez has to try to force one? It's TAInt Time for the late cover. The Jets are basically a better version of the Titans, who the Chargers beat like a mule a month ago, on the road. At home, with a bye? Even Norv can't blow this. I think.

Chargers 27, Jets 16

Last week: 3-1

Year to date: 123-130-6