NFL Futures: Because it's never too early to get your money down

Something I like to do in the Dead Zone Time during the MLB All-Star break is to mull over NFL betting wagers for the upcoming NFL season. Especially now that my Philadelphia Eagles are almost entirely assured of being one of the weaker teams in their division, and a possible bargain price. Forty fifth time's the charm, and in Dallas to boot. Easy money. And if you really want to get hardcore about this, here's the upcoming schedule, and the rosters, in case you missed any transactions. (And yes, this does mean that I've started working on the fantasy football rankings.)

Besides, I picked the Saints in the 2009 pre-season to go to the Super Bowl last year. So I'm a genius! Where I had them losing to the Patriots. So not exactly a super-genius.

NFC East

Dallas - 9 to 1
New York - 16 to 1
Philadelphia - 28 to 1
Washington - 29 to 1

Shocking lack of regard for Donovan McNabb here, right? Well, probably not, given that his weapons are terrible, his line is worse, and Albert Haynesworth is trying to execute the biggest heel turn in the District since John Edwards. I suspect Dallas is overpriced here, but heaven knows that in an era where the Lakers and Celtics win in the NBA, and the Yankees win in MLB, a Cowboys win at home has a certain air of utter and complete fatality.

NFC North

Chicago - 29 to 1
Detroit - 100 to 1
Green Bay - 10 to 1
Minnesota - 11 to 1

I suspect the Vikings had their highwater year last time, and that Chicago could be frisky with Brian Urlacher coming back and Jay Cutler teaming with Mike Martz. But there's a long way between frisky and an actual threat to do more than make for an intriguing bounce-back fantasy QB.

NFC South

Atlanta - 23 to 1
Carolina - 55 to 1
New Orleans - 8 to 1
Tampa - 100 to 1

The defending champions are the low team in the NFC, despite the presumably corrosive influence of big money going to Dallas from their national fanbase of coke dealers, nuisance lawyers, oil profiteers and child slavers. (Welcome, Dallas fans! Have a seat over there, next to the Patriot fans who have ruined sports for the last decade for so many. You've got a lot in common!) The reason why is that, even with Giving Person Jake Delhomme out of the division, this looks like an auto-win start of five to six wins and home field in the playoffs, unless Atlanta can surprise. And I don't think they can. But going back to back with that defense is asking a lot.

NFC West

Arizona -- 55 to 1
San Francisco - 37 to 1
Seattle - 50 to 1
St. Louis - 140 to 1

Your best longshot money comes in the NFC West, where a competent team can run the table, get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and set themselves up to recreate the Ram and Cardinal runs to January glory. This year, I think that's the Niners, with an emerging Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis doing their very best to make everyone forget that Alex Smith is under center. It will work for a while, especially in a division where the other QBs are a raw rookie (Sam Bradford in St. Louis), a useless trustafarian (Matt Leinart, Arizona) and a fossil with back problems (Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle) backing up a wildly overpaid third-stringer (Charlie Whitehurst). You might see better QBs in the UFL.

AFC East

Buffalo - 120 to 1
Miami - 28 to 1
New England - 9.5 to 1
New York - 12 to 1

The only division with two low odds teams at this time, the AFC East promises to be a full-on bloodbath that prevents its survivors from getting to the promised land. New York has spent crazy money on marginal talent, while Bill Belichick and Co. are in Year Two (and a contract year to boot) of Dreamboat Brady coming back from his knee injury, with a running attack that actually looks OK for once. New York counters with the best CB in the business in Darelle Revis, but he's holding out for all the money he can count, and the de facto free agent trade of Thomas Jones for LaDanian Tomlinson should please no one but Shonn Greene's fantasy owners. I fear the return of the Empire... and if Miami were in the West, would like their chances a lot. (Oh, and Buffalo should just give up and move to LA already. These games in Toronto are just a cry for help.)

AFC North

Baltimore - 12 to 1
Cincinnati - 27 to 1
Cleveland - 85 to 1
Pittsburgh - 18 to 1

A lot of love for the Ravens, who picked up WR Anquan Boldin to give QB Joe Flacco someone to play with, and have the emerging mighty mouse that is RB Ray Rice. One suspects this is as much a Steeler Void wager, since Ben Roethlisberger's off-season of white trash bar skeet shooting has put the team at a severe disadvantage, but there might be some touch coming out of Porkopolis, where QB Carson Palmer is also another year removed from Severe Knee Trauma, and actually has a second WR now in Antonio Bryant. Baltimore's still the clear favorite, but S Ed Reed and MLB Ray Lewis are really starting to show tread on the tires. In any event, I'm not seeing the SB champion coming from here.

AFC South

Houston - 30 to 1
Indianapolis - 6.5 to 1
Jacksonville -- 55 to 1
Tennessee -- 27 to 1

Your top favorite is the always-popular Colts, who might get S Bob Sanders back for the few games that he'll play before getting hurt again, and WR Anthony Gonzalez, who's due to play more than a game a year. But so long as they've got QB Peyton Manning, they have to be the odds-on favorite to win the division, host a home playoff game and have a strong chance to go to Dallas. And od all of the traditional favorites, they might have the easiest time in their division, assuming that Houston still doesn't have a defense and Tennessee still doesn't have an offense. (Oh, and that Chris Johnson holdout and Vince Young flakiness ain't helping, either.)

AFC West

Denver - 50 to 1
Kansas City - 100 to 1
Oakland - 100 to 1
San Diego - 8.5 to 1

The only well-regarded team in either Western division is always a low-odds favorite, because the roster is so well-regarded, and the rest of the division is composed of train wrecks. But with WR Vincent Jackson holding out, LB Shawne Merriman a shell of his former self, and the team highly dependent on might have been a reach pick (rookie RB Ryan Mathews), it's not looking like a complete picnic. And some part of me wonders if Oakland, which has had a fine off-season of making actual football moves and ridding itself of a pathetic albatross for a QB, just might challenge. The answer is, of course, no. But the Chargers might not have their usual walk.

So... who do I like? In the NFC low odd options, the Packers are appealing, in that the defense can't be worse than last year, the offense is loaded, and the offensive line has to be healthier. I also suspect the Vikings won't be as tough, the Bears won't be ready to pass .500, and the Lions are still a year away. Which would give them home field in the playoffs, and you don't generally win in Lambeau, especially in the playoffs. In the high odds listings, give me the Niners, who might be the only team in the NFC West worth a damn.

For the AFC, I'll take New England under the idea that the Jets messed up everything with the Tomlinson move, and the Texans under the idea that the Colts have to have a down year eventually. And if I have to go into crazy odds, I honestly think the Raiders could make some noise, because the other teams in this division are horrible, and there are only so many years of Norv Turner that a team can take before it just quits. Besides, you can't make high picks every year without eventually getting some players, right?

Anyway, go see what you like. It's certainly more fun than, well, Home Run Derby. Or anything else you'll watch this week...