The Super Bowl Pick

OK, we've put this off long enough. Let's get to the gambling.

The case for New Orleans: Will enjoy the karmic good wishes of (at least) four out of five viewers who don't have money on the game. Seem to perform better in the underdog role, and might be playing with house money (relatively little pressure, classic "No One Believed In Us" motivations) after the escape win against the Vikings and two weeks of hearing how the Colts will stomp them. The running game can be quite effective at times, with multiple options to held make things harder on the defense. In Reggie Bush, they own an occasionally special perimeter player, with good results in the return game. When he's on his game, QB Drew Brees is a great combination of talent and leadership, with a lethal deep ball, reasonable mobility, a fast release and strong accuracy. He's also pretty good at keeping the turnovers down, despite putting a lot of footballs in the air.

The case against: The running game still has issues in short yardage, or at least did against the Vikings. While scouts overrate the importance of height for a QB, it's still helpful, and Brees is prone to having balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. The Saint skill players have been quietly disappointing for most of the second half of the year, with TE Jeremy Shockey being unable to stay healthy, and WR Marques Colston not really giving them what they need from a #1 WR. If the line doesn't give Brees time and a clean pocket, the deep game suffers, and coach Sean Payton's play-calling has been more big play than methodical. The Saints are also a dome turf team that has not always traveled well, especially on grass. The defense is a boom-bust outfit with coverage issues, and if they don't get turnovers, they don't get off the field. Against Manning, that might not happen.

The case for Indianapolis: Unlike the Saints and every other team in the NFL, they just haven't lost a game this year when they played the starters. In their last game, they scored 30 points against the best defense in the league this year, on a day when they didn't get going until the end of the second quarter, and underperformed in the red zone. The Colts have a frankly massive edge in playoff experience, with a SB Championship against the Rexy Bears just three years ago. The defense is underrated and more aggressive than their current public perception, and they are also deeper than they've been in the past (witness the deep playoff run despite the absence of top safety Bob Sanders). The AFC team usually wins the SB, because the AFC has been the better conference for over a decade.

The case against: DE Dwight Freeney might not play at all due to injury issues, and he might be the most important member of the defense, since DE Dwight Mathis is much more easy to double-team without his running mate on the other side. With a mostly ineffective running game, helped only by Manning checking down into good running situations when he reads the defensive formations, the QB has to play at a very high level to sustain drives, and Manning's lifetime record in big games is not pristine. Head coach Jim Caldwell has enjoyed a pretty smooth ride in his first year; in a pressure situation, he could underperform. Special teams are average at best, providing a big potential advantage to the Saints, especially if Reggie Bush brings his "A" game. Manning has been quietly turnover-prone this year, which gives the Saints defense hope. The Colts also employ skill players that are prone to putting the ball on the carpet (Clark, Garcon) in fighting for extra yards. One can easily see Indy losing the turnover battle, and when that happens in a Super Bowl, things can turn quickly.

The pick: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over New Orleans

Now, you can't find this price now; it was what the line opened at, when I took the first available number. Today, that price is looking more like six, despite the uncertainty surrounding Freeney. But it also gives absolutely no joy in taking the favorite, even at a good price.

I don't really have anything against any of the players in this game. Sure, Manning's an unrepentant ad whore, but it's not like he's not cheerful about it, and his willingness to laugh at himself is welcome. Reggie Bush is probably a college cheat, but cheating the NCAA is something every American should aspire to. There's also players like the Colts' Haitian WR Pierre Garcon and the Saints' Haitian LB Jonathan Vilma, and a win for either would be a great thing. A win for the city of New Orleans doesn't really overcome the Katrina tragedy, but it certainly doesn't hurt either, and if nothing else, will help to ensure that the team isn't going anywhere in this lifetime. Assuming Brees does not have one of the worst games of his career, he's about to become a major celebrity endorsement force, and neither coach is a grandstander, cheat, or media darling.

Now, can the Saints win, and more importantly for our purposes, cover? Sure. The Giants over the Perfectriots should remind everyone of the power of underestimating a quality opponent.

But the Colts are a significantly better team, and that if you played this game 10 times, they'd win it 8 times, and most of the games would be easy spread covers. They are going to make more plays on both sides of the ball, because they've got the better talent on the lines and at the skill positions.

Colts 34, Saints 24

Last week: 1-0 (Pro Bowl Moolah, Baby!) and 1-1 (Conference games)

Year to date: 126-134-6

Past championshp picks on FTT: 1-2