Mets Take The Rod

A classic example today of how fans overvalue the winter meetings. The Mets have apparently signed record-setting reliever Francisco Rodriguez to a three-year, $37 million deal that has the snap reaction of making the team ten games better. It couldn't be simpler, right? A team with a dramatic late-inning weakness hires the best available pitcher. Everything's solved, right?

Well, no.

First off, setting a saves record just means that you were healthy, on a team that won a big mess of games by three runs or less. K-Rod had a ridiculous number of bunny saves last year. He also did it against a pretty terrible division, with an utter lack of meaningful games until the post-season; in that post-season, he was less than what the team needed. He also throws a slider that can't be good for the long-term health of his elbow, isn't a size that usually lasts well into his thirties, and lost a lot of velocity last year. He might still deliver value, but it's not like he's Mariano Rivera in his prime here. It's more like Billy Wagner II.

But give them credit; by adding 2008 K-Rod to the 2008 Mets, they're definitly going to win the division... in 2008. Sadly for them, the 2009 season isn't guaranteed to be the same.

Now, if the Mets want to add two or three more shutdown closers and really overwhelm the weakness... and Carlos Delgado decides that the second-half is his true performance level, rather than a Last Hurrah rush... and Carlos Beltran doesn't slide in his post-30 mode, and David Wright doesn't get hurt, and Jose Reyes goes back to improving his OBP, rather than trying to hit 30 home runs... well, they'll be good.

But let's not give them the division just yet, folks. After all, we have two years of utter failure down the stretch here, along with a reliever that hasn't exactly crowned himself in late-season glory. He makes them better, and will be a top five guy in fantasy, but fantasy isn't reality.