NFL Picks, Week 15: Anonymous and Mean

Hey, kids! Did you know that because I don't use my real name in this here blog -- mostly because, despite years of practice, I've never learned how to spell Nmandi Asomugha -- that makes me much more likely to write horrible personal attacks and crude, callous jokes?

It's all brutally, lamentably true. Damn the Internets! It puts my very soul at peril. That, and all of the safe and secure sports gambling that I recommend that you also engage in, since it's the only way to make the games worth watching, especially now that so very many of us are floating in the bowl in head-to-head fantasy leagues. It's to be expected when you build your team around year-long studs like Marion Barber and Drew Brees, rather than Week 14 heroes like Shaun Hill and Pierre Thomas. So nice to have months of hopes die at the hands of free agent refuse. That's just fun! Also, I'm drunk.

(And anyone that wants to point out that this is just payback to the gods of karma for that fabled Billy Volek to Drew Bennett Garbage To Gold Championship Year... well, in the words of the immortal Homer Simpson, "Stupid poetic justice.")


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The highly astute reader -- which is to say, every last one of you wonderful people -- will notice a new sharpness and relevance to the picks column this week. There are two reasons for this.

1) By managing to keep my head at 8-8 last week while others were losing theirs, I'm still up solidly for the year, with a chance of having my best year picking games well, ever. This is where a sportsbook really makes a fellow, well, glad to be alive. I heart the Internets!

2) The chance at being better than the Bad Tooth over at the World Wide Lemur means that I will have no choice but to take over his Web address, and then it'll be nothing but smug and self-serving conversations with my friends in public for money. Gentlemen, you've been warned. Suck up to me now, before I'm famous, living in Southern California, name-dropping for all that I'm worth and slowly ratcheting up the obnoxiousness until I've infected you all with it as well. I will now set myself on fire.

And with that... on to the FREE NFL Picks! (Lines provided by BetUs.com.)

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New Orleans at CHICAGO (-3)

By this point in the season, we know the teams pretty well, and what we know here is pretty simple. The Saints just don't win on the road; their only wins this year outside of the Superdome were in Kansas City and their "home" game in London. Included in those road losses were foldos to the Redskins, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons and Bucs; an actually good team wins at least one of those games, and has much more than a Win Out and Get Help chance at the playoffs. For all of his weapons and numbers, Drew Brees isn't dominant; if he was, the Saints would have won in Tampa two weeks ago, wouldn't have crapped the bed against Minnesota on MNF two months ago, and would have given his team a better chance at winning in Denver than a long Olindo Mare miss.

As for the Da Bears, they can't stop the pass against good teams, don't have WRs that get consistent separation, and might have the lowest ceiling of any of the NFC North contenders. That doesn't mean they can't win the division, especially if Matt Forte continues to show no signs of hitting the rookie wall, and every sign of remaining the poor man's Brian Westbrook.

In moments like this, the line is educational: two even teams, so the three-point home-field advantage keeps it from being a pick-em game. My bedrock hate for Pierre Thomas, and the fact that Brees was just ordinary last week when I needed him most, is pushing me towards the home team, despite the fact that they might have more talent and match up well with this Bears club. It's also the point in the year when the weather can really change your picks, since cold and snow and a dome team never mix. But since the forecast is calling for a game in the mid 40s, I'm... still going with Chicago, because it's also supposed to be windy. Of such matters, fortunes are made.

Bears 24, Saints 20

GREEN BAY at Jacksonville (+1.5)

Lost in the rush to judge Aaron Rodgers is this simple fact about the Packers; the defense has turned into the new Bengals. That is to say, a big-play unit (7 touchdowns scored) that just gives up a ferocious amount of points (307), mostly because they just don't get to the quarterback enough (21 sacks) and have old corners that just aren't quick enough to make the gambles pay off enough anymore. This Packers team is going to be good next year if Ryan Grant and Rodgers stay healthy and they fix the secondary. There is just too much talent here for them to be below .500, and 13-3 was not a Saint Brett creation. But there's something to be said for the sudden and shocking fall from won-loss record grace here. They are a quitters December away from double-digit losses and a top 10 draft pick. (So there's something to be said for tanking, really.)

As for the hometown team in this shockingly irrelevant matchup -- seriously, you could have gotten some nice indie cred for making these two teams your Super Bowl picks in one of the lowest-rated games in recent history -- well, we all knew that David Garrard wasn't going to throw 3 picks in 325 attempts in 2008, the way he did in 2007. But did anyone have 10 in 436, and a statistical dead heat performance to his 2006 season, back when he was still fighting for the job with Byron Leftwich? I know the man is dealing with a terrible receiving core of knuckleheads and a banged-up offensive line, but he's still supposed to be better than this, and there's something Just Plain Wrong about the fact that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew aren't dynamite on dump-offs in the flat. This Jags' team quit weeks ago, and needs the cleansing power of fire. That, and they'll miss Matt Jones.

Packers 24, Jaguars 17

DETROIT at Indianapolis (-17.5)

Welcome to the most obvious suicide pick in the history of late-season suicide pools. You've got a comically inept franchise that will become the first 0-16 team in NFL history. They are on the road against a veteran Colts team that hasn't lost in months, always edges out terrible teams, and finally put up a big point blowout last week against the woeful Bengals. It's the only favorite of more than fourteen points that's on the board, and the other team that's favored by that much was absolutely dead in the water two weeks ago (that's Philadelphia in the MNF spot against Cleveland).

So why on earth am I expecting the Lions to cover?

Well, the Colts *still* aren't all that right. The Lions are by no means good, but in Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, they have two weapons that will be on this team when they are just ordinarily bad again. Seventeen points is a lot to cover for a team that hasn't had a breakout game from top wideout Reggie Wayne in forever, splits the carries to conserve #1 RB Joseph Addai, and will be taking every possible shortcut to getting some rest in the stretch run since they won't have a bye.

The way you destroy the Lions is how the Titans did it -- with a suffocating defense and a run until they quit, no mistakes offensive attack. Neither of those quite describe the Colts. Don't expect drama, but it also won't be utter comedy, either.

Colts 34, Lions 20

WASHINGTON (-7) at Cincinnati

If the Bengals just weren't such godforsaken quitters with an utterly hopeless QB, this would be a fine place to go for the upset. The 'Skins have to know they have nothing really left to play for, and with Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn getting into each other this week, it's Distraction Time in DC. The Bengals are actually much less awful against the pass, so if this one comes down to Jason Campbell throwing it all over the yard, a cover is not impossible; remember, they did that against the Jets and Cowboys earlier this year on the road, albeit with a less pathetic QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. They also covered the line in the tie that we shall not speak of.

Despite a surprisingly early season burst, the denizens of the District are who we thought they were: a .500 or worse team, the clear #4 in the NFC East, with a talented but underachieving QB in Jason Campbell and an older first-time coach that seems to be in over his head. It took longer to get here then we might have anticipated, but we got here just the same.

Anyway, if the Bengals didn't already have their win for the year, and if they weren't all trying to get Marvin Lewis to never be hired in the NFL for any position ever again, I'd be tempted to go for the home dog. But that "are who we thought they were" thing goes both ways, and there's a reason why the home team has been outscored by sixty combined points in the last two weeks. (That reason is because they stink *and* they've quit. Magical combination, that.)

Redskins 27, Bengals 13

Tampa Bay at ATLANTA (-3)

Are the Panthers really as good as they looked on MNF? Did the Bucs just play a terrible game on defense? I'm inclined to think more of the former, just because it's December, they are tired, and what the Panthers did to them wasn't so much gaping holes as it was busted arm tackles. Getting beaten at the line on the road is bad enough, but when you can't close or finish in space, you're looking old, slow and in the way. And Atlanta might have better, or at the very least comparable, skill people.

Tampa probably will still make the playoffs; such is the power of a San Diego / Oakland home finish. But this game is looking a lot like what just happened to them last week, since they are on the road against a team with a live crowd, two solid running backs, and one WR that almost always gets his numbers despite being the only guy on the team you need to cover. Atlanta's defense isn't as good as Carolina's, but Matt Ryan is better than Jake Delhomme. Oh, and just because in the league where I have him, I was on a bye... count on Antonio Bryant to follow up on his 200 yards and 2 touchdowns game with 60 and zero. Some things, I just know.

Falcons 24, Buccaneers 16

SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) at Miami

Oh, those frisky Niners! Mike Singletary probably locked up his 2009 contract extension last week with a surprisingly easy home win against the reeling Jets, and now he goes for the AFC East hat trick against a Dolphins team that probably had this one penciled in as a walkover a month ago. The line is inflated from the conventional wisdom of West Coast team travel woes, but that didn't stop the Niners in Buffalo two weeks ago, and I'm expecting another road cover, if not an out and out upset.

For the Dolphins, they continue to be relevant in playoff conversations by working out must wins against bad teams. But I can't help but think that they've already peaked for the year, back when they were the only team running the Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown hasn't been nearly as electric as he was earlier in the year, and Chad Pennington is like a good middle reliever who is stretched to start games -- you can get away with it for a while, and maybe even ride a hot streak for half a year, but eventually, his lack of stuff is going to cost them. Probably not this week, though. Unless you've got them to cover.

Oh, and this just in... Dolphins LB Joey Porter continues his goal of being the least likable man in the NFL (now that Rodney Harrison is done) by standing up for Plaxico Burress and his need to illegally carry an unlicensed firearm. You see, athletes need their guns so, so much that they don't need to follow the same laws as everyone else. You might not to want to ask Joey for an autograph, unless you are wearing Kevlar.

Dolphins 24, Niners 20

Buffalo at NEW YORK JETS (-7)

Which team wants it least? Buffalo showed the good people of Toronto just how lucky they've got it with CFL ball in a snoozefest loss to the Dolphins that reminded everyone just how much they don't want to watch J.P. Losman. Oh, and the crowd was more or less neutral, with tons of vacationing Fish fans. Yay, karma! Meanwhile, the Jets continued their criminal neglect of an effective running game in a beatdown at the hands of the Niners in Candlestick. Oh well, at least no one in New York is going to make that Meadowland Super Bowl hype anymore.

In this game, you'd have to think that J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Fan will take matters into his own hands and boo Saint Brett into morose check downs and handoffs. Or that head coach Eric Man E. Super Genius will finally wake up and realize that his offense needs to revolve around Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, especially when both of his WRs have utterly disappeared against weak defenses in the past two weeks. Jericho Cotchery is earning a place on my Never Own Again fantasy player list, along with Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Shockey. On defense, the concern has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch, since those Lee Evans eruptions happen a lot less infrequently these days; if you are scared of Trent Edwards, it's only in comparison to Losman. The home team gets well and deluded here.

Packers 34, Bills 16

TENNESSEE (-3) at Houston

A highly interesting game for a 6-7 team that's doing a lot more than playing out the string. After a landmark win last week in Green Bay, the Texans are looking downright frisky, with the top 3 skill players of Slaton, Johnson and Schaub looking like keepers. Meanwhile, the Titans clinched the division last week, don't appear to be in terrible danger of losing the #1 seed, and could be poised for a road letdown game, especially if the Titans pull that I-AA Battled Red Catsuit thing again. Hence, the small line.

But what people are forgetting here is that the Texans' defense really isn't very good, which is going to make them stack the line to stop the Titan running attack... and when that happens, you give Kerry Collins all day to stretch the field and, maybe, find Justin Gage for a long one or two. They proved that they could win that way on the road in Chicago a month ago, and they'll do it again here. It will entertain few people, but the Texans will cover.

Titans 24. Texans 16

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-2)

Grand Theft Football was committed last week at home for the Steelers, who rode a dominant second-half defense and the traditional December gift giving of Tony Romo to a tight win over Dallas. Now, they get the tough and tenacious second place team with ambition in Baltimore in their continuing saga to try to make the playoff schedule easier than the regular season.

For the Ravens, the only thing that seems to be capable of stopping them is their own offense. All of the points allowed in last week's mule kicking of Washington came off short fields than to offensive miscues. After the offense had made the game interesting, the team finally did what good teams do at home with a lead; ran it down the throat of the opponent with Lorenzo Neal blocking for LaRon McClain, and after a dozen or so of those plays, the play-action touchdown to Derrick Mason could have been executed by just about every quarterback in the league. Maybe coach John Harbaugh is keeping McClain fresh for the playoffs with his pointless use of team cancer Willis McGahee. Either that, or he's just giving the Steelers a lot of hope for this match-up.

The real problem for the road team here is that, well, the Ravens are *good* at rushing the quarterback, and against teams like that this year, the Steelers have done things like give up double-digit sack totals and had Big Ben been unable to finish the game. I'm not expecting a mirror replay of that game. Oh, wait... actually, I am. (Oh, and if there is any bet to make here with confidence, it's the under.)

Ravens 16, Steelers 13

DENVER (+7.5) at Carolina

How enthused are fantasy sports honks about owning a Carolina running back for this matchup? Denver has only recently gotten its D back in this column, and with Champ Bailey expected to provide some measure of help against Steve Smith, the onus will fall (as onuses always do) to Mssrs. Williams and Stewart, who merely combined for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against a presumably good Buccaneer defense on MNF. Add that to Denver having to travel for the game and the peculiar desire on the part of all AFC West observers to insist that Dammit, The Chargers Aren't Out Of This Yet, and it's a growing consensus for the home team.

HOWEVAH, as Screaming A. Smith might say (look him up on the Internets, kids, he was a programming genius)... I'm going the other way here, despite the fact that Denver RB is right up there with Spinal Tap Drummer in terms of job security. You might have noticed in the game where Carolina was running like crazy that the Bucs, of all people, were moving the ball fairly well via the air. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are a lot better than Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant, and with Bailey giving the Broncos a chance to stack the line against the run, I'm liking the road dog cover here. Besides, teams coming off big MNF wins tend to struggle the next week, especially late in the season where recovery time is critical.

Panthers 27, Broncos 24

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) at Kansas City

Happy days are here again in LoCal, where a dominating win over the Raiders and the eternally amusing state of the Worst Division There Ever Was (unless, of course, you are an NFC West devotee) has the home team thinking that the Norv Stretch Drive is going to kick in any second now. The Chiefs continue to provide some value for roto players, but no one else, and while they historically own the Chargers at home, this isn't the run or lose team they've usually provided heartbreak to. If Turner wasn't Turner, he'd be giving many touches to Darren Sproles now and enjoying the actual burst. If Herm Edwards wasn't Herm Edwards, he'd be moving on from Larry Johnson with all possible speed. And if you've got serious confidence in either of these glue factories, you're a better gambler than me...

Chargers 28, Chiefs 21

SEATTLE (+3) at St. Louis

What would you rather watch than this game? My list includes surgery, telenovelas without transcripts, backyard wrestling and braying conservative jackass theatre as to how everything that's happening in the markets is the fault of the guy who doesn't even have the job yet. All of these things will provide more low comedy (and titty) than a game for fantasy players who clearly aren't still alive in their leagues, because the big Stephen Jackson Payoff that happens in this game will be countered by the previous ten-plus games of blinding sadness.

For the road 'Hawks, Seneca Wallace to Deion Branch scared the Patriots senseless last week, and they've got to be liking their chances against Marc Bulger, who has gone into full Bobby Hoying mode of turtling up against any defensive pressure. With Donnie Avery hitting the rookie wall and Torry Holt running as if he was dragging a wall behind him, I think I'd be looking for a comfy spot on the turf, too. The home crowd in St. Louis will make the Seahawks think it's a game played on a neutral site. Like, say, a warehouse.

Seahawks 20, Rams 10

Minnesota at ARIZONA (-3)

Curious game here. The Vikings need it more than the Cardinals, who have already wrapped up their trembly first round playoff loss by finally putting the NFC West out of its misery last week. But the Cardinals are better against the run than the pass, and teams that are traveling to the desert normally have problems, even when their quarterbacks aren't Gus Frerotte. The continuing mystery that is the Williams Wall Suspension could also swing this game large; at stake is whether Cardinals RB Tim Hightower will disappoint his fantasy owners or *really* disappoint them. Never has a rookie RB ran for so many touchdowns while breaking so many hearts; the man is making LemDale White sit up and take notice, at least until the rolls of fat make him collapse into the fetal position again.

I'm going with the home team here, mostly because I think Kurt Warner secretly wants another MVP award very badly. He's got to be smart enough to know that he's not going very far in the playoffs with that secondary, and that the next contract he signs will be his last. So look for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns as he pads his numbers against a Vikings defense that isn't as good as advertised.

Cardinals 34, Vikings 20

NEW ENGLAND (-7) at Oakland

Will this be the week that the Patriot Dream dies? Probably not, given just how awful the Raiders are despite games of actual production, but you know it's coming, just from their sudden lack of any kind of margin for error. Last week in Seattle, they were actually a fourth down conversion from the 2 away from a shocking loss to a Seahawk team that hasn't shown a pulse for weeks. It's not looking very good for them, but hell, it's the AFC East; someone not very good has to win it, them get stomped in the playoffs.

As for Oakland... um, what exactly do you say about a team that was supposed to be bad, and is, well, bad? Zach Miller seems to be a useful player. Johnnie Lee Higgins might be still drawing a paycheck in five years, and could be quite useful if he were in a place where the games mattered. Nmandi Asomugha has made me write his name enough times to get it done in only two minutes of cross-checking. They aren't as bad as other really bad teams. And until the owner is taken out and actual professional practices are used in the judging and training of football players, it's all exceptionally meaningless. No wonder Raider Fan is a whiskey drunk.

Patriots 27, Raiders 16

New York (+3) at DALLAS

Perhaps the most intriguing game of the week. The Cowboys have had more success than most against the Giants in the past few years, with Tony Romo throwing for big days and the defense not getting steamrolled by the Giants running game. Both starting quarterbacks have struggled in December, not that Giants Fan cares about such things anymore. Both teams have a big physical lead back who is coming in banged up. The only real difference here is that the Cowboys' Idiot WR is still on the field, while the Giants are spending their Plaxtime trying to get back the money he isn't earning after shooting himself accidentally. (I know, I know, it's still funny.) One also suspects that while they'd like home field throughout the playoffs, they aren't going to kill themselves over it, after winning the Super Bowl last year with repeat road wins.

Dallas needs the game more than the Giants, and has home field. They also could have easily won last week in Pittsburgh, which would have made their wildcard hopes a lot more realistic. They should get Marion Barber back, and I'm looking for him to run angry (which for Barber would make him damn near psychotic) as his answer to Jerry Jones questioning his toughness. Tashard Choice's good game in Pittsburgh might also give them the secondary punch they've been missing since Felix Jones went down, a surprisingly important injury for them. If LJ Smith was able to to do things to the Cowboys last week, count on Jason Witten doing more. And while the Giants will be better than they were last week, they are still down one good WR... and more importantly, also seem to be losing the effectiveness of their best LB in Antonio Pierce.

Cowboys 24, Giants 20

Cleveland at PHILADLPHIA (-14)

Andy Reid needs to resign! The reason why for this week is that he clearly overused Brian Westbrook in last week's beatdown against the Giants. 39 touches for the man he's always treated like a china doll was way too much, especially when you've got the two-headed monster of Lo Booker and Kyle Eckels just ready to go on the bench. Expect all of that to come back to haunt them against the Cromeos, who have Ken Dorsey throwing to Braylon Edwards, Steve Heiden and Donte Stallworth, when he's not handing it off to Jamal Lewis. This one has Trap Game written all over it...

And yes, I'm kidding, about everything but the Reid Resignation. Once you are under my bus, Fat Man, YOU STAY THERE.

Eagles 34, Browns 13

Last Week: 8-8

Year to date: 108-92-4