NFL Picks, Wild Card Weekend: Winning Time

First things first -- in the update that you could not care at all about, to the point of your apathy being replaced with active anger, I finished one winner off the championship in my picks league. For the year, I was 118-126-12, so if you're coming to me for serious gambling advice, You Are Out Of Your Mind. (But on the plus side, all I have to do is go 10-1 in the playoff picks to be Over 500! Woo Hoo!)

Now, on to the picks!

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Jacksonville is a 2.5 point favorite in PITTSBURGH, with a 39.5 point over/under.

All of the signs are going to the Jaguars. They're young, they're healthy, they play smashmouth football, they're catching a reeling Steelers team that's missing their top running back, most of their offensive line, and their mojo ever since the Jags controlled the line of scrimmage in a win at Pittsburgh a month ago.

Damn, I so want to go the other way on them, and here's the reason why... David Garrard and those receivers, on the road. (And by the way, dumping it off to the RBs won't help, either, as the Steelers are fantastic at taking away the RB in the passing game.) If the Steelers get any kind of lead in this game in the second half, and it comes down to Garrard having to win the game for the Jags, I don't see them being able to do it. And frankly, it's hard to take any road team that's got that mark against it.

However... the Jags were, according to Football Outsiders, the second-best offense in the AFC in the second half of the year. (Yes, even better than the Juggernaut. Too many games in bad weather.) It's hard to see how Big Ben is going to stay upright in this game long enough to pick on the Jags' secondary, and how the Steelers are going to stop the run, even when they know its coming. This one will be tight all over and will give no one on either side of the wager a moment's peace.

Jaguars 21, Steelers 17... which means I'm taking Jacksonville and the UNDER.

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SEATTLE is a 3.5 point favorite against Washington, with a 40.5 point over/under.

Over the past few years, Seattle has been a very strong home team, and that advantage has continued in the playoffs, albeit with some strong assistance from Tony Romo's field goal holding technique. The Skins have, of course, ridden a resurgent defense, the overwhelming emotion of the Sean Taylor tragedy, some effective game management work from Todd Collins and the fact that God Himself Thinks Joe Gibbs Is A Very, Very Nice Man. From 5-8 to the sixth seed is a mean feat, and it says something strong that they've been able to gut their way through elimination games for nearly a month now.

Having said that, it ends here. Seattle has ran the ball just well enough to keep the opposition honest, Matt Hasselbeck has quietly (as if there's any other way one can play in Seattle) put together his best season ever, and the Skins have only two plus offensive players in this game -- Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley. (Yes, I just dissed Santana Moss. Big-time. He's getting used to it.)

On the road, against a home crowd that's usually good for several crushing false start penalties per game, it's too much to overcome. Midnight comes for Cinderella Collins, and the Seahawks win and pad the score late with a defensive touchdown.

SEAHAWKS 31, Redskins 17... which means SEATTLE and the OVER.

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SAN DIEGO as a 9.5 point favorite against Tennessee, with a 40 point over/under.

Every year, there's a complete dog of a game, and this is it. The Chargers are no good in any game where coaching can be a factor, and the Titans have a heck of an advantage with Fisher over Turner... but that's just about the only edge the road team has, unless you really think that Pro Bowl kicker Rob Bironas is worth a couple of touchdowns over Nate Kaeding.

The Titans hang their hat on a defense that's good when Albert Haynesworth plays, and really good when Chris Hope is in at safety as well. (Note that we just kind of assume Keith Bulluck is in the middle, and for the record, he's got my vote as best LB in the NFL right now.) Unfortunately for the Titans, Hope is done for the year and Haynesworth keeps popping in and out of the lineup... and the Chargers have LaDanian Tomlinson, and that alone should be enough, even with Norvalicious on the sidelines.

Bonus: the Titans are starting their second-best QB right now (the rapidly and disturbingly disintegrating Vince Young, who has shown a shocking resemblance to Tavaris Jackson for most of the year), have the worst wideouts this side of Minnesota (yes, Tavaris again), and their best RB (LemDale White) is fumble-prone. Yummy! I'm looking for this game to be out of hand by the third quarter, and for multiple Michael Turner and Darren Sproles sightings. (They are LDT's caddies, for the non-fantasy addled.)

One last point about Norv, and then I'll get off him... how did the Chargers, who had Marty Schottenheimer at this time last year, somehow go to an even shakier coaching situation? You have to respect ther brain trust for that one, big time.

CHARGERS 38, Titans 14... which gives us CHARGERS plus the OVER.

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TAMPA BAY is a 3-point favorite against the Giants, with a 39.5 point over/under.

No one has taken this Buccaneers team seriously all year, for many good reasons: they play in a terrible division, they were only 9-7, their offensive "stars" are available in any number of primitive NFL video games from the late '90s. But here's what they also do -- they prevent the big play, don't usually turn the ball over, and with Jeff Garcia and his ageless scamper power, don't take big penalties or terrible sacks. It's also Garcia's third time around against the Giants in a playoff game, and he's always enjoyed the experience.

The Giants, of course, are hoping that their strong loss to the Patriots in Week 17 shows them as a team on the rise in the suddenly vulnerable NFC. There's a few things to like here, first of which is their inexplicably good 7-1 road record. Secondly, Kevin Boss has been more than adequate replacing Jeremy Shockey. Third, Plexico Burress finally looks healthy, and finally, Brendan Jacobs seemed positively frisky last week against the Pats.

Now for the bad news. The Bucs have a much better defense than the Pats right now. Raymond James Stadium is a tough place to play at any time of the year, yet alone the playoffs. No healthy player in the Giants secondary can stay with Joey Galloway (witness how open Moss was after Sam Madison went down). And when push comes to shove, the Giants start Fredo Manning under center, and have Tom Coughlin as their coach. That duo has combined for zero -- as in Zee Row -- playoff wins for Big Blue to date. It won't get better now. Count on Ronde Barber looking enough like Tiki to catch a ball, too.

BUCS 24, Giants 16 -- so I'm taking the Bucs and the OVER.

Bet early and often!