Conference Championship Week: Suck My Chalk, Please

Giants at PACKERS - The Pack is a 7.5 point favorite, with a 40 point over / under.

It's said so often that it has to be a cliche, but that doesn't make it less true: the quarterback gets too much credit when a team wins, and too much blame when the team loses. Put that truism on steroids, HGH and a rare form of Bolivian rat extract, synthesized with an infusion of that glowing yellow-green goop that powers your average muscled supervillain... and that just starts to approximate the level of what's been happening with Eli Manning.

The Unstoppable Citizen Watch pitchman has posted the following combined statistics in the Giants two road playoff wins: 32 for 45 for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. No picks, no fumbles.

Efficient low yardage. Low risk. In both games, his team had a first-down free quarter -- in Tampa Bay, the first, and in Dallas, the fourth. He's also taken four sacks. It's good, but if you were to ask me for a top 5 list of reasons why the Giants are still alive, Eli's sitting at #4, behind the DL, the RBs and the coaching.

And yet, since we are so wrapped up in the belief that the quarterback has to be the reason why a team wins or loses... because it so often is. And the germ of the idea creeps in, which is that he's really turned a corner, that maybe the loss of Shockey was the best thing that could have ever happened to him, and come to think of it, the way he brushed off Benedict Barber at the start of the year was pretty cool...

And only a Grinch or Giants Hater would then note that with just one more win, he finally will have reached the heights of Kerry Collins.

In both of their wins, they've had help. The Bucs had a hobbled Galloway. The Cowboys had a rusty Glenn and Owens at less than 100%. Garcia and Romo were both rattled by the Giants' pressure; Favre and the Packers, by the numbers this year, were the best in the NFC against that. And at some point, the wide-open receivers in the middle of their secondary have to cost them, just as they did against the Patriots.

Credit should also be given to the coaching staff for (finally?) accentuating what Eli does well -- a quicker than average release with good accuracy on short throws -- and limiting what he does poorly (improv and locking in on a single receiver, which leads to backbreaking picks). It's as if they finally accepted him for what he is, 40+ games into a career that didn't look like it was going anywhere pleasant. At the start of the year, most people thought the Giants were a last-place finisher in the NFC East, with somewhere between 5 and 8 wins. They've succeeded beyond their wildest hopes, and Eli, to me, has become the starter by merit instead of by heritage. I have officially retired the Fredo nickname, and Giants fans can no take him to their heart as much as they did Collins or the pre-Super Bowl winning Phil Simms.

So why am I going to the poisoned well for the third time and betting against them? Because I just don't see their ceiling as being high enough to win a game when the other team plays well, and at some point, someone's bound to do that. (People point to the Pats game in Week 17 as a big clue, but the Pats won that game as soon as they decided to blitz.)

The Giants gained a whopping 57 yards in the second half in Dallas last week, and won the game. Roll that around in your head for a little while. They are also going against a nasty history for the road team playing its third week in the NFC: this way almost always leads to a 20+ plus loss.

Against a Packers team that has a very good running game when Ryan Grant isn't putting the ball on the ground, and a defense that can make good WRs disappear... well, as the economists say, things that can't continue don't. And we're not even getting into the problem that the Giants defense is entirely dependent on getting a big pass rush, and the Packers are the best team in the NFC at getting the ball out fast.

PACKERS 27, Giants 17 -- which gives me the Packers plus the OVER.

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Chargers at PATRIOTS -- Pats are a 14.5 point favorite with a 46.5 point over

Let's start with the good news for the road team here. Tomlinson seems likely to play, and if he can't, it's (shh) really not that big of a drop to Turner and Sproles, because both of those guys are good. The Chargers also have a potential advantage in special teams, where Mike Scifres came through huge when they needed a big punt, and both kickers were shaky last week. Chambers and Jackson have played their best two games of the season in the last two weeks. After last week's off-the-charts upset in Indy (seriously, has the defending Super Bowl champions ever lost a playoff game at home when the other team was without its three best offensive players?), they are playing with house money here. No one thinks they can win, and the Patriots haven't covered a spread in a long time. Finally, the Patriots have no home field advantage, and I don't buy the idea that it's all the field's fault. Their fans are so spoiled and delusional, they honestly think that no one has ever booed a Punt Pass and Kick contestant for wearing the wrong colors before. (Seriously, Pats Fans are hated for more than the reason that their teams are good. I'd go into the reasons why, but I only have these two hands and so many pills left on my prescription.) Finally, as perhaps the biggest underdog ever in a conference championship, maybe they'll come in with exceptional We've Been Disrespected Fuel.

Unfortunately, that's about it, and it's nowhere near enough.

The Patriots have the (vastly superior) coach. They are at home against a warm-weather California team, at night, with temperatures in the 20s to 30s. The Chargers have real problems with slot receiver coverage; the Patriots feast on that. The Chargers get almost all of their QB pressure out of two players, leaving them susceptible to good game preparation by a focused coaching opponent. They are likely to start their backup quarterback, who has arm strength and ball control issues. And they are going against what might be the best team in NFL history, with a strong edge in postseason experience. The Pats have the best offense in the history of the league. The Chargers have... Billy Volek.

Can the Chargers beat the Patriots? Yes, but it will require an astounding set of circumstances. First, Cromartie will have to make Moss disappear in solo coverage (hint: hit him early and hard), and maybe even come up with a pick or two. Merriam and Phillips will have to put Brady on the ground. The Chargers will have to be at least +2 in turnovers, and get more big plays out of special teams. Gates will have to be at nearly 100% and come up with over 100 yards. They can't fall behind by more than 10 points at any time, they have to control time of possession, they have to maintain their composure when the breaks and penalty calls go against them, and they have to finish the game on offense with their running game... and no one has managed to do that to the Patriots defense in the fourth quarter all year. That's been their secret in the close games; late, they shut the door, and their offense kicks it down.

People generally think that the way to beat this Patriots team is to simply outscore them in a shootout, but I don't think that's it. I think you have to have the ball for 40 minutes, and score slowly. Converting a surprise onside kick might help, too. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Chargers can do that. They're good on the lines.

Or they could just send some disposable defensive player after Brady's knees, the way that the blogosphere has been waiting / hoping / praying for since about, oh, October first.

The prevailing winds are that the Patriots are 8 to 1 favorites. In their biggest wins of the year, the Colts had no running game and made critical turnovers, and kept a so-so Titans team in the game late at home. They won a bad division, they're beat up, and it's hard to shake the feeling that bad blood and history or no, they're just kind of happy to be here. None of that -- and especially not the QB -- leads me to think this is going to be much of a game, though I do suspect the cover is going to be touch and go, because I suspect the Pats are going to get bored.

Pats 31, Chargers 16 -- which gives me the Pats plus the OVER.

Now, having said all of that.. boy, I'm just hoping the games are good. (There will also be, as I'm sure you are breathlessly awaiting, the return of the Quasi Live Blog, assuming another child doesn't combust.) Happy gambling!