Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts

Yes, yes, I know; too late to help you in your draft. Well, sorry, but I'm going to put my leagues ahead of the blog on this one, folks, and not give up who I like and dislike before it can hurt things. But now that I'm well drafted...

Sleepers

5) Ben Zobrist. What, exactly, isn't there to love here? He's got 20-20 power and speed, over .400 OBA and near .300 BAA, and can play second, short or the outfield, which means he's even more useful in head to head leagues. He's not exactly ancient, and even if you are paying for a career year, you're still going to get absurdly helpful value.

4) Clayton Kershaw. The last three months of 2009, he was an absolute monster, with a strikeout slider to go with his other plus pitches, and some absolute dominance in pressure situations. He works half of his games in a great pitcher's park, has a solid defense behind him, a plus bullpen to keep inherited runners off the board (along with a manager that always coddles his starters while burning his bullpen), and a great strikeout rate. Sure, the story is that a 22-year-old guy is going to have limited innings, and the control issue could crop up again. But Joe Torre will make sure he's still got gas in the fantasy playoffs, and there's a real chance that you are getting Sandy Koufax before the world knew he was Sandy Koufax. Winning fantasy baseball leagues is all about the upside, and there might not be a pitcher with more upside than Kershaw in the NL.

3) Ricky Nolasco. Kershaw but right-handed, and on a worse team. OK, it's actually not that close, since Nolasco has more of a track record of innings pitched, the Marlins are not the Dodgers, and Nolasco won't have his innings limited by the penny-pinching Fish. Nolasco's especially valuable in leagues that value K/BB, and since the Fish are forever selling guys who can actually play, you might wind up with a top SP on a contender in August. That's all good, really. Don't let the 2009 numbers fool you. He's an ace.

2) Asdrubal Cabrera. I love position flexibility, and I like it even more when it comes in an emerging young offensive player who is going to hit in the teeth of a reasonable offensive lineup. Cabrera's breakout 2009 was derailed by injuries, which means that the dimmer owners in your league are going to miss out on him for a lack of counting stats. Either that, or they only remember him for his goofy first name and weak-hitting younger playoff self. I like him for 20-20+ this year.

1) Vladimir Guerrero. OK, he qualifies as DH only, he's 35, he doesn't run anymore, and you won't get the monster that used to be a top round powerhouse. But on the other hand, he hit when he was in the lineup, he's bent over having to move to Texas to justify a final big contract, he plays in a bandbox and he'll have plenty of men on base. Ron Washington is also goofy enough to play him in the OF occasionally, especially if Josh Hamilton goes down again, so I expect some flex later. Last night, I got him in the 18th round with the 215th pick, which is to say about 100 picks past where his offensive numbers should be going. The chance for one last beast year, and a season like what Bobby Abreu gave to the Angels last year, is much higher than where he is going. Texas is going to score runs, and the Impaler will be a big reason why. Finally, his career OPS in Arlington is over 1100. Admittedly, that was against the Ranger pitching staffs, but still.

Busts

5) Aaron Hill. There's just no way he hits 36 home runs again, and even in his monster year, his OBA was just .330 -- not exactly a big win, since your average championship team in a 12 team league is going to be around .355 to .360 to win the category. Not getting steals from your 2B will put you behind any number of other top 2Bs, and it's not as if Hill has been a model of good health over the years. Let someone else pay for the career year, unless he slips long enough to make for a dynamite middle infield / bench play.

4) Nate McLouth. The Atlanta OF has struggled so much in spring training that he might have lost the leadoff job, as well as lose platoon at bats, to the immortal Melky Cabrera. He's really just an average player who rode a hot streak when he came to Pittsburgh to fantasy prominence; the All-Star nod once upon a time was just tokenism. He plays in a pitcher's park, in a division with many top SPs. And yet, he's still going pretty early in many drafts, despite really not having that much going for him. I'm just not getting it.

3) Ian Kinsler. Some people rank him as the #2 2B, with 30-30 potential in a bandbox park with a high octane offense. But that presupposes the idea that Kinsler will actually stay healthy for once -- he's already looking like a candidate to start the year on the DL -- and that he'll hit in better luck than last year. Maybe the injury bug will leave him be for once, but I'm just not seeing it.

By the way, Kinsler is on my keeper league roster. The keeper league roster that's seemingly doomed and DOA before even a single game has been played. 100% win, this.

2) Matt Cain. The Giants' #2 SP dropped his ERA by nearly a run last year en route to a 14-win season. In a pitcher's park, with a good defense and bullpen, he looks like a pretty safe bet... but he just doesn't strike out enough guys to pull off a sub 3 ERA again. Cain has seen his home runs increase in three straight years, the walks have always been a bit of a problem, and the Giants just aren't going to be so good as to get him this many wins again. He's still a good starter and an asset to every staff, but only if he's not your #2. Or maybe even your #3.

1) Joe Mauer. The clear #1 catcher, defending MVP and all-around favorite son of Minnesota is a tremendous player... but he's also a guy with recurring back issues, with only one year as a serious power hitter, who plays half of his games in a new park that's completely unknown for hitting effects, but probably won't be as useful to offense as the Homer Dome. What he does best is hit for average and get on base, which is pretty unique for a catcher, but also has the worry of injury to take even that away. And if you believe in the redemptive power of the Walk Year, you also have to believe in the dulling power of the Got Paid Year, too.

Mauer is still the best in the business at catcher, but that's in reality, not fantasy. In our game, I'd let someone else take him by slotting him the 4th to 5th round, and get similar HRs and RBIs from an under the radar guy like Kurt Suzuki much later in the draft.

Anyway, that's it for me. Add your own in the comments, if you like...