2010's Top Ten Make Or Break Fantasy Baseball Players

10) Grady Sizemore. Sure, he should be fine and back to his old 30/30 and more self... but Cleveland's looking at another bad year due to uncertainty in the starting rotation. That kind of thing can lead a player to push himself too hard coming back from injury, and a team to pull the chutes early and break up the foundation for parts. Grady's a weapon, but one with a few holes, and he wouldn't be as valuable in a lot of places. But if you want him, you're reaching for him in the second or third round, which means he's very likely to be your best outfielder. Hard to win when that slot doesn't produce.

9) Dan Haren. He doesn't quite have the aura of a top-drawer ace, even though that's really what he is... at least, until the wheels fall off near the end of the season due to his consistent second half / September problem, which is usually death in a head to head league. But at least he gets you there, especially on the ratios, unless this is finally the year that the second half fade predicts a next year problem. Haren's been a workhorse ever since moving into the rotation in Oakland, and eventually he's going to break down or become ineffective for the full year, not just the last bit of it. That's why you can get him after six to ten other SPs go off the board, after all.

8) David Wright. The second-highest ranked 3B in all of baseball, assuming that the Met rework of the outfield walls gives him back his power and/or confidence. He's too young and too good to lose all his home field power this fast, but there's also the team's recent snake bitten injury record to worry yourself about. If he comes back all of the way and more -- after all, he's still in his prime -- he's going to win a lot of leagues,

7) Alex Rodriguez. Everyone loves him again, all the way to a top six or better slot, especially after the World Series heroics and the promise of a full year in the New Yank Launching Pad. But just a year ago, he was under a PED cloud, with a worrisome hip surgery that cost him time. And on some level, you have to wonder if that could flare up again, and if so, whether the speed that made him not just special but irreplaceable will be gone for good. There is more risk here than people generally think, and he's also not a kid anymore.

6) The Uptons. Take BJ, and you are buying into the guy that ruined a million teams last year, with a power stroke that's been erratic, an injury record that's downright troublesome, and a Rays' team that has other options this time around, should he struggle. Go with Justin, and you lose the speed but gain potential, as he generally raked last year when healthy... and ah, there's the rub. For all of the Upton talent and pedigree, there's also been a significant number of injuries and inconsistency to go with that big brand name. It's all or nothing, with a better than even chance on the all. But if you're wrong here, you're gonna feel it. A lot.

5) Joe Mauer. A borderline top 5 pick and talent, especially in OBA leagues, since he's giving you tremendous production in a position that's usually an offensive sinkhole. But if last year's power is a fluke -- and sure, every scout always said he'd eventually hit for power, but how often does a guy show so little for so long, then become this kind of threat? -- you'll be taking him ten rounds ahead of his production, especially since he doesn't contribute those early career steals, and he's still got the big injury history. There's no question that 2010 won't be quite as good as 2009, but if it's a lot worse, his owners are DOA.

4) Roy Halladay. Probably the consensus #1 starting pitcher in early drafts, with dreams of C.C. Sabathia with the Brewers domination as one of the AL's best moves to the weaker league. But there's concern here, really; for where you draft him, anything but domination will be a letdown, and it's not as if he's going to a pitcher's park or strikes out 10 guys a game. There's a very real chance that Cole Hamels gives you 90% of the value for a third of the cost, but if the consensus is right and Halladay is dominant, you're going to lose to the guy who owns him in any head to head matchup. Major swings ahead.

3) Chris Carpenter. Last year's comeback miracle is back for another go-around with the stars-and-scrubs Cardinals team that should roll in the weak NL Central. If he's found the healthy part of his career, he's a fantastic arm, and if he hasn't, they will DL him, so at least your risk is mitigated to some extent. But unlike lat year, you aren't getting him late or on the waiver wire.

2) Johan Santana. Remember him? He was this year's Halladay just a few short years ago, except in a better park, and with a team that was supposed to win more games. But a funny thing happened on the way to multiple Cy Young Awards and a long-term Nelson Muntzian laugh at the Yankees; the bullpen, weak run support and perpetually injured teammates eventually laid even the great Santana low. This year, he could bounce back with a team that's got to be better by simple power of regression, or he could be on the wrong side of the career, never to quite return to his former status. Either way, he's going to sway a ton of leagues.

And finally...

1) Jose Reyes. If he's anywhere close to what he was before last year, he's a top ten talent and a stolen base leader at shortstop, which is a position that's getting quite thin on superstars, thanks to his absence. If you get that guy past, say, the fifth slot in the draft, you're golden -- and if you get him in the 10th through 30th range, which is where he's going to go after the thyroid scare, he might not even be your best player.

But if he can't stay healthy again, he'll kill you -- because there just isn't anyone else like him, and if the Mets' past behavior is any indication, they'll keep trying to get him on the field no matter what, which means you'll spend the summer waiting for his Godot-like self. Just like in 2009. Steady hands, roto owner. This hobby of yours turns out to be gambling after all.