Thursday, December 6, 2007

NFL Picks, Week 14: Leaking From The Ass

Wondering what happened to your daily Epic Drop and FTT Output? So am I. For the past 48 hours, I've been dreaming of having a solid bowel movement, and in the last 36 hours, that's been upgraded to fevers and chills. Good times!

This is, I am sure, what eventually kills us -- not the illnesses, but the sheer loss of dignity and weakness. Sure, I've got a great life and wonderful kids and a job I enjoy and the FTT fanbase to sustain me (hah!)... but then there's that Leaking from the Ass thing, and against that, there isn't much that really makes you want to keep on living.

This is, of course, why sports are so important to our lives. What's a little ruinous discomfort and horrifying lapses when compared to watching AJ Feeley hit Lofa Tatupa on the numbers in the clutch? Sports build character, dammit. Character that will help you stay alive at the end of your days, when any sane person would have checked out with speed.

The Leakage also permeated into last week's 6-10 performance against the spread, which put me under .500 again for the year. Once again, sports builds character.

And with that, on to the picks!

* * * * *

Chicago as a 3-point dog in WASHINGTON. After last week's brutality, the Skins turn around 3 days after the Sean Taylor funeral to find a Bears team that finally has a RB who doesn't gain weight during carries. Adrian Peterson may not be all that good, but at least he gives this Bears team a pulse. As much as I hate Sexy Rexy on the road, this 'Skins team just can't have much in the tank right about now.

BUFFALO as a 7-point cover against Miami. OK, Dolphins, I give up... you really are that bad. A 32-point loss at home to a Jets team that stinks on ice proves it. You are going 0-16, you're Buc-esque, you start a QB who is a loser baby, so why don't you kill him. Besides, after last week's escape from DC, the Bills are back to the periphery of the playoff race, so that means they've got something to play for... and the home-field advantage in upstate New York is impressive.

CINCINNATI as a 6-point favorite over St. Louis. This was a big part of my decision-making to go with Marc Bulger as the starting QB for my fantasy league team -- wow, what a dream matchup for him, right in the week before the playoffs! Needless to say, I didn't make the playoffs. And I now hate Marc Bulger, nearly as much as I hate Fat Ced Benson, and Heap of Todd, and... Anyway, I'm going with the Bengals just because they're due to put up 40 on someone and irritate the hell out of everyone who thought they'd be good this year. Bet on at least one ridiculous touchdown celebration from Chad Johnson.

JACKSONVILLE as a 10.5 point favorite against Carolina. In years past, this would be a stone perfect moment for the Jags to blow a big cover game, and keep the Panthers in the game forever. But this year, they've actually taken care of business against bad teams, and Lord, these Panthers are a bad, bad team. At least they get to start Vinny Testaverde this week, which is to say, they get to start the guy who is closest to an NFL starting QB on the roster. (In 1995... which is when both teams entered the league.)

DETROIT covering as a 10.5 point underdog to Dallas. I don't think the Lions have much of a chance to actually win this game -- with this pathetic of a running game, I don't like their chances to win against anyone, really -- but the 10.5 points seems a little high. I'm looking for a late cover in a shootout, because this Cowboys team can be thrown on, and when you drop back to pass 70 times in a game, the defensive linemen usually stop getting to the quarterback by the middle of the third quarter.

Tampa Bay covering as a 3-point favorite against HOUSTON. The Bucs continue their magical mystery tour (the mystery, of course, is how a team with a skill group of Garcia, Galloway and Graham can possibly lead to a team with an 8-4 record) against the 5-7 Texans. This is simply a case of one team that wants and/or needs the game (the Bucs) versus a team that wants and/or needs more talent (the Texans). And that's why they pay me the big bucks, people, is to deliver insights like that. While leaking from the ass. Whoopee!

GREEN BAY covering 10 points against Oakland. This line has actually gone down half a point this week, which is a little surprising; while the Raiders did look frisky in last week's win against the Broncos at home, it's not like teams from relatively warm California do well, historically, in the chill of Lambeau. Brett Favre will start for the Packers, which means that all is right with the world.

TENNESSEE in a pick-em game against San Diego. Two immensely flawed teams square off in what would be an elimination game, except for the fact that the Chargers play in a terrible, terrible division. I like the Titans here, because Albert Haynesworth being back means that LaDanian Tomlinson won't run wild, which means that the Chargers are going to have to rely on Phillip Rivers to get it done. And ever since he was exposed to the virus that is Norv Turner, that doesn't really work so much.

PHILADELPHIA as a 3-point home favorite against the Giants. The Eagles get back quarterback Donovan McNabb, defensive tackle Broderick Bunkley, and safety Quinton Mickell, all of whom are huge plusses for a team that usually (a) finishes strong, and (b) wins games when it seems like the team is going to completely fall apart. After two straight weeks of close but no cigar under AJ Feeley, I'm hoping / expecting the home team to take advantage of the Giants' historic choke tendencies late in the year. And if either team makes the playoffs, bet heavily on the opponent...

Minnesota as a 9-point road favorite against SAN FRANCISCO. How can you possibly lay this many points on a team with this bad of a QB on the road? Simple -- the home team is starting Trent Dilfer. That's what the NFL has been reduced to now; the bad QB gets big run over the jaw-droppingly terrible one. Expect a mess of turnovers in a mess of a game, and for Adrian Peterson to make the highlight films. A lot.

SEATTLE as a 7-point favorite against Arizona. As close as you're going to get to a showdown game in the NFC West, with the 6-6 Cards right in the middle of the playoff hunt against the 8-4 Seahawks. Has Seattle turned a corner after last week's win in Philadelphia? Will the Cards defy their DNA and come through big on the road? I'm going with the former, at least as long as Matt Hasselbeck remains upright. Besides, the Seahawks have an actual home-field advantage, and an outside dream of being the #2 seed in the NFC, assuming that the Packers fall apart down the stretch.

DENVER as a 6.5 point favorite over Kansas City. This Broncos' team frustrates me; they threaten the division lead, then drop two games in a row, including one to a Raiders team that they've just owned for years. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have dropped five in a row, mostly because, surprise of surprises, Larry Johnson is banged up after last year's year of abuse. I'm counting on turnovers and the resurgent Travis Henry to carry the load here.

Pittsburgh as a 10.5 point underdog against NEW ENGLAND. Wait, what's this -- the biggest Masstermind on the Net GOING AGAINST THE HOME TEAM? Put down the torches and pitchforks, my brothers and sisters, and hear me out. In the last two games, the Patriots have been just 6 points better than a pair of below .500 teams; clearly, they are now going for a new strategy of torturing the opponent with close but not quite games of outright tantalization, rather than just grinding them into the dust. Count on Fast Willie Parker to crank out yards but not touchdowns, and for the home team to somehow overcome a criminal officiating performance -- in other words, what happens every week.

Cleveland as a 3-point favorite over the NEW YORK JETS. I like the Browns over the suddenly fat and happy Jets, who enjoyed a blowout win as an underdog against the Dolphis. Derek Anderson will continue to look like the best free agent fantasy league QB ever, and even Jamal Lewis looks like he's got a burst now. Such is the magic of the Browns offensive line, which might be the most underrated group in the league.

Indianapolis as a 9-point favorite against BALTIMORE. Count on the cool and composed Ravens to turn in an absolute turd of a game in the week after their Patriot frustration, and for those sneaky Colts to continue to provide covers for the gambling public. There's even the possibility of a Marvin Harrison return here.

New Orleans as a 4-point favorite against ATLANTA. When you are starting Chris Redman, you are no longer an NFL team. The 5-7 Saints have spent the entire year frustrating gamblers, but they'll take a week off from driving us insane, and cover against a frankly terrible Falcons team.

Last week: 6-10
Year to date: 89-92-11

3 comments:

Tracer Bullet said...

Tampon, dude. Yeah, it's disgusting but you can spend more than 10 minutes off the throne.

The Truth said...

Speaking of anal leakage... thanks for the Thursday night pick.

DMtShooter said...

I have a system. It involves losing.