NFL Picks, Week 16: Into The Meaninglessness

Welcome to the portion of the NFL schedule where two strong but opposite forces face the weary and wary degenerate gambler. On the plus side, we know these teams better than we will ever know them, with a wide and deep knowledge base composed of a 14-game track record. At this point in the season, if you've been paying strong attention, you really do have a decent sense of who will do what... but then the opposite and compelling variable kicks in, which is determining which teams have quit on their coaches, or are playing kids that aren't really better than the veterans, but will give the coaches some idea of what they have before the upcoming draft.

There's also this: home field advantage at this point in the game is highly speculative. Good teams tend to have fan bases that travel, bad teams tend to have fan bases that will gladly sell tickets to try to pay off their investment. Listen to the crowd at the Steelers at Rams game this week, or Cowboys at Panthers. I guarantee you it will have a third of the crowd going the other way.

This leads to strong point spreads and stronger swings, with games getting out of hand and the sense that you have to be a psychologist to give yourself a chance at a payday. Take, for instance, the Seahawks. We know they bully teams at home and that, talent-wise, they look to be the clear #3 team in the conference. Following a bad road loss to a bad home team (Carolina, week 15), you'd normally expect them to have a huge bounce-back laugh riot against the cover-your-eyes Ravens. But maybe they crap the bed again. Maybe the Ravens pull Boller in the first quarter and ride the novelty of waterbug QB Craig Smith to a rage-infused cover after being the only team in the world to be bad enough to lose to the Dolphins this year.

Or the Bengals. Up until last week, you could make the case that this disappointing group of proto-convicts had been the victim of a bad schedule, more than their own inadequacies. So what happens when they go on the road against a flat-out terrible Niners team? They lose to a third-string QB, and Carson Palmer looks like he'll never be the guy he was before the knee injury. And so on, and so on.

You can certainly make the case that until the playoffs, there really isn't much sense in picking these games and putting real money down. And then you look at the lines, and hey, this isn't all that different than usual, and I really like X in the Y game... and anyway, it's what we do. (Besides, I'm still in first in my picks league, which is an indictment of the people in that league, really.)

And with that rousing call to arms, on with the picks!

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Pittsburgh covering 7.5 at ST. LOUIS. Consider this game a public and probably early referendum on rookie Steelers coach Mike Timlin (CHECK). His team is actually better on a fast track, given his boom-or-bust RB (Willie Parker, the worst fantasy performance ever for a guy that's in contention to lead the league in rushing yards), his dependence on the passing game for big plays, and his speed over size defense. Last week saw his team get punched in the mouth repeatedly by a Jaguars team that looked for all the world like they were the real Steelers at home. This week, they go against a Rams team that they should just tear apart. And despite my lack of faith in these guys away from home, I'm picking them to do just that.

Dallas covering 10.5 at CAROLINA. Another big road favorite coming off a bad loss at home, needing a big win against a bad team. It's a trend or something. I'm excited about this one, because with Marion Barber making the Pro Bowl despite getting less than a dozen touches a game, maybe they'll finally see what he can do with 25 or 30. Besides, with Romo's thumb banged up and a dominant offensive line, that would be the, um, smart play...

Oakland covering 13 points at JACKSONVILLE. Not so much a trap game as a trap cover. Oakland's been frisky under Josh McNown the last few weeks, and gave Indy all they could handle until late. Yes, the Jags will run for 200+ yards against them, but the funny thing about big rushing days is that they don't always translate into big point wins. If this line was 9.5, I'd go with the home team, but 13 is just too much.

Kansas City as a 4.5 point dog in DETROIT. I like the Chiefs defense a little, and after the el foldo that God did on the Lions this year, I think Ford Field is nice and quiet. Hey, is there still time for a rousing Fire Millen protest, or did we miss that this year? It's amazing what six wins buys you in the Motor City.

INDIANAPOLIS covering 7 in Houston. Time for the Colts to start imposing their will on lesser teams, and Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball too fast for Mario Williams to take over this game. Also, Andre Johnson's career numbers against the Colts are terrible, and the Texans won't stay close unless he reverses that. He won't.

NEW ORLEANS covering 3 against Philadelphia. Thanks to the Bears collapse in Minnesota, this game is meaningless for the Eagles. The last time that Donovan McNabb played a meaningless game for the Eagles is... at some point in the past that I'm not going to look up right now, because crying would be embarrassing and all. A problem for the Eagles in this game is that Reggie Bush might play, and the Eagles make him look better than he is... and Takeo Spikes, who finally was starting to look good the last few weeks, is done for the year. Brees will screen when he isn't finding Marques Colston, who is just the kind of big WR (Burress, Owens) that can just wipe out the Eagles secondary.

BUFFALO as a 3-point dog against the Giants. Fun fact: who has the third-best road record in the NFL? It's the Giants, who have managed to have the defense crank it up nicely to cover for the ever-shrinking Eli. So why am I taking the Bills, who lost their remaining chance at the post-season in the snow in Cleveland last week? Because I just can't imagine the Giants continuing their road mastery, especially with Jeremy Shockey done for the year. I can't wait to bet against this team in the playoffs, I really can't...

Green Bay covering 8.5 at CHICAGO. Would the Bears still be playing relevant football if Brian Griese had been under center last week, instead of Kyle Orton? Probably. Is the Bears defense officially in Pride Mode now (finally!) after stepping up and mostly stopping Adrian Peterson last week? Maybe; it sure helps when Urlacher is allowed to run all over the field. Will any of that matter against a Packers team that's been blessed by the gods this year, and even seems to have lucked into a decent back in Ryan Grant? Not especially. Count on Favre to work with a short field and for Bear Fan to spend most of the second half dreaming of high draft pick QBs and/or Donovan McNabb...

Cleveland covering 3 at CINCINNATI. Has there ever been a bigger false dawn than the Bengals? They draft a QB at number one and an acclaimed defensive coach, and they look like the new lords for a little while... and then those mean old Steelers punk them in a playoff game, the QB gets hurt, the coach can't control anyone in the locker room and the defense sucks eggs through a straw. It's as if the DNA of those uniforms reasserted itself after a brief but spirited fight against Not Sucking. Last time these teams played, it was a shootout: this time, a shooting.

ARIZONA covering 10 against Atlanta. Which team has had the worst year for its fans this year? Miami is officially out of contention once they got a win. Philadelphia. Baltimore and Cincy all expected playoffs and got played. The Jets and Niners had hope and got crushed. The Lions had a false dawn before God turned against them. And then there are the 28 remaining Falcons fans on the earth, six of whom are wearing Free Vick shirts, while the other 22 are too beaten down to say anything about it. Let's just say it's not just the coach that quit here. I think I'd give a high school team three points on the Falcons, and the Cardinals are 7 points better than that. I think.

Tampa Bay covering 6 at SAN FRANCISCO. This line shrank by a point during the week, mostly because no one respects the Bucs' talent (no Pro Bowl picks, and no one howling that they got screwed, though you could certainly make a case for Ronde Barber over Al Harris). With recent wins over the Cardinals and Bengals, the Niners are fooling people into thinking they don't stink; they do. Expect the Bucs to befuddle third-string QB Shaun Hill and putting 8+ in the box to shut down Frank Gore. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, Jeff Garcia Will Have His Revenge... and you know things are going bad for the Niners when there best story this year is that their punter could be the first guy ever to have a net punting average of over 42 yards. (And that's why they pay me the big bucks to write this column: the punting knowledge.)

New York Jets covering as an 8.5 point dog in TENNESSEE. The Jets looked frisky, especially in the secondary, in the messy weather last week in New England. The Titans will also not have the luxury of knowing which QB to prepare for, and while their defense will probably make enough plays for them to win, it won't be pretty. I like the Jets to cover with honor here, as the Titans continue their sad march to an utterly predictable first-round playoff exit.

NEW ENGLAND covering 22 against Miami. Now that the Dolphins have their win, they join the ranks of a half-dozen team in the 16-game regular season era with a single win to their names. Unlike last week's slopcast against the Jets, the weather isn't expected to be a monumental issue in this game, which means that it's time for Tom Brady and Randy Moss to torture all of those people who had them in their fantasy leagues with a taste of what might have been.

SEATTLE (no line) over Baltimore. We touched on this in the opening. With Kyle Boller at the helm for the Ravens, I'm having a hard time seeing how the road team can win in Seattle, especially when their secondary has been toasted and roasted for the better part of the year. The year can't end fast enough in B'More.

Washington covering as a 6.5 point underdog in MINNESOTA. I'd really like to go with the home team here, but good grief... did anyone else see Tavaris Jackson in the MNF game? He redefines horrible, and he won with some numbers, thanks to some long runs after the catch. His footwork is awful, his decision-making is atrocious, he's not accurate, he gets hurt easy... just what, exactly, is the reasoning behind making this a second round pick? If I were a Vikings fan, I'd be pining for Brooks Bollinger. Or maybe just a direct snap on every play to Purple Jesus. I like the Skins to stick around and for Todd Collins to make just enough throws to cover the spread.

SAN DIEGO covering 8.5 against Denver. The last time these teams played, the Chargers broke out the buckets of confetti and unicycles, and that was in Denver. This game is in San Diego, and it's on MNF, which means it's legally required to be devoid of drama. Look out world, the Chargers are officially on the Norv's False Confidence Roll!

Last week: 5-11 (I deserved this after the Anal Leakage theme, right?)
Season to date: 105-108-11