Week 15 NFL Picks: I Shut 'Em Down

We come, finally, to the point in the season where the end is in sight, and lo and behold, what's this?

Standings

1) Five Tool Picks 100
2) Six Pack Sports Nation 97
2) DCScrap 97
4) BD 95
5) Tokai Tanuki (with malice) 93



Yes, my fellow Tools, on the strength of my finest week of the season in last week's slate of games (11-5 ATS), I have jumped to the lead position in the Epic Carnival pick'em league. Once again, I am your king, a position that I've achieved strictly on merit. I was so pleased by this development, I gave myself a Five Tool T-Shirt, which is just about the best Christmas gift anyone could hope to receive, really.

As your new king of pick, I promise to continue to deliver the kind of benevolent tyranny that you have come to expect from the Five Tool Empire, along with the most persistent pick column in the whole sports blogoshere. That, plus the rousing loss that led off the week (screw you, Texans!), should give you complete confidence in my picks for the remainder of the weekend.

Now, on to the picks!

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Cincinnati as an 8-point favorite in SAN FRANCISCO. Should a 5-8 team be an 8-point favorite on the road against anyone? Yes, when that team is a Bengals squad that actually had a hard schedule, against a Niner squad that has quit harder than the Knicks. If Coach Hitler's dad hadn't died earlier this year, one would have to suspect he'd have gotten the axe for this train wreck. If you've got Bengals and managed to get in your fantasy league playoff anyway, here's where your persistence pays off.

TAMPA BAY as a 13.5 point favorite against Atlanta. Good grief, how can a Buccaneer team that's built to win in an unimpressive fashion possibly be carrying this many points? Because they're playing a Falcons team that wouldn't be a good bet to win in the SEC right now. Even if you buy the idea that Chris Redman's recent yardage competency is for real, and that the team will show some "up yours" spirit following the Bobby Petrino backstabbing, and that the Bucs just aren't that good.... heck, it's still a 17 point game, especially given the Bucs' good home field advantage. But not exactly a comfortable one.

Tennessee covering 4 against KANSAS CITY. This Titans team is still not as nearly as dangerous as they looked a few short weeks ago, back when hope still existed for Vince Young, and Albert Haynesworth and Chris Hope were both presumed to be healthy again by the end of the year. Now, it's just Haynesworth, but luckily for the Titans, the only receiving threat that Brodie Croyle can find is Tony Gonzalez, and he won't go for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Seattle covering 7.5 points in CAROLINA. Can this Seahawks team win its sixth straight on a cross-country trip? So long as Carolina is starting its current crop of QBs, yes. Matt Hasselbeck has never been hotter, and the time off even made Shawn Alexander look good last week. Don't look now, but this Seahawks team is looking like its peaking for the playoffs, and while they don't look like much of a threat on the road, a hot QB can do a lot.

ST. LOUIS as a 10-point underdog against Green Bay. Do I really think that this Rams team can knock off the #2 seed in the conference? Not really, but Brett Favre's history in domes isn't very appealing, the Rams may get the magic of Marc Bulger back for this game, and in any event, they'll have a fairly healthy Stephen Jackson to keep things close. This Packers team really isn't as good as their record, and it wouldn't shock me terribly if they don't make it to the NFC Championship Game. In any event, I'm looking for a home team cover here.

Baltimore covering 3.5 against MIAMI. Kyle Boller has, just as he has for everyone else, betrayed my trust in him... but against this jaw-droppingly bad Dolphins team, they won't need the offense to actually score any points. In a game with little else going for it, I'm looking for Willis McGahee to make the difference. Watching this one for anything but camp or fantasy league value should be worth immediate entry into Gamblers Anonymous.

NEW ENGLAND covering 23.5 against the Jets. How on earth has this line gone *down* since its 24-point open? Who is rushing to bet the Jets to cover the spread, other than people who are thinking that the weather will play a ridiculously strong factor? I'm sorry for anyone who is holding out hope that the impossible will happen and redeem the Jets' utter misery of a season, but this Patriots team just spent a week devising how to emasculate a third-string safety on live television. How do you think they'll react to an entire team managed and operated by the people that they blame for their PR woes? Seriously, I'm not sure there is a number that I'd not take the Patriots at here.

NEW ORLEANS covering as a 3.5 point favorite against Arizona. Just the kind of game that should make you go for the road dogs -- they play a similar style, they have a defense that gets after the quarterback, and Warner keeps them close or better in every game -- but Drew Brees knows what to do against a raw and young defense, and the Cardinals have their DNA to fight against here.

PITTSBURGH covering 3.5 against Jacksonville. Lost in the bitterness of the loss in New England last week was that the Steelers were missing Holmes and Polamalu, both of whom could be back for this home game. It's a big game in terms of seeding and clinching the division, and despite QB Ben Rothlisberger being banged up and Aaron Smith being out for the year, I just don't trust David Garrard to win a tough road game.

Buffalo covering 5.5 against CLEVELAND. A battle of two up and coming young teams that should both feel good about their years, and a game that really looks like it will come down to a last-minute field goal in either way. The loser is likely out of the running for the final wild card spot, which would certainly point towards the home team... but this Browns team does not get key stops, and in December weather, that's not good. Now that the Bills have finally given JP Losman the kick to the curb, I like the road team to cover, if not win.

OAKLAND covering a 10.5 point spread against Indianapolis. Another case where I think the number is just a little too high. The Raiders don't stop the run, so I'm looking for the Colts to grind out a workmanlike win with a lot of Addai and Keith. For the Raides, expect a little boost from a few series of JaMarcus Russell, and a slow Bay Area track to keep the score close enough.

SAN DIEGO covering as a 10 point favorite against Detroit. This Lions team is in free-fall, and the Chargers have made their late-season run to an undeserved reputation of playoff potency. But when you've got a team that's creating a false wave of momentum, this kind of home game against this type of opponent is the perfect fall guy for a 20+ point win.

DALLAS covering as a 10.5 point favorite against Philadelphia. It's clown time in Big D, with Terrell Owens as Head Globetrotter and big numbers from Jones and Barber. For the Eagles, expect early and often and gutless from the defense, wideouts that seem to get less open with more time rather than less, and an absolute no-win situation for Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are still mathematically alive in the NFC, but after last week's gutbuster against the Giants, they can't get through the airport with the forks in their backs. The big shame of it all is Brian Westbrook, who is having an even better year than last, for nothing.

NEW YORK GIANTS covering 4.5 against Washington. A confidence-free pick, given Eli Manning's breathtaking record in big games, but I just can't pull the trigger for Todd Collins in a road game. Look for a slow but steady ground game for the Giants wearing out a Redskins team that has to be ready to break down after the Taylor tragedy.

MINNESOTA covering as a 10-point favorite against Chicago. There's a reason why Kyle Orton is a third-string quarterback, and why he's never threatened to take the job of Rex Grossman or Brian Griese; he's even worse than either of those guys. On the road in a loud dome, against a Vikings team that has been very opportunistic on defense against bad offenses. This Bears team counts as one, and this will be yet another week where the Vikes look like a good dark horse in the wild card round.

Last week: 11-5
Season to date: 100-97-11