Week Five NFL Picks: Separating The Slop

After last week's festival of unworthy road favorites, the lines this week are spinning back to The Overlords, as three double-digit favorites are on the board, and only 4 of 14 games have a home underdog.

It's also the time of the year when memories of last year, and the sense that you might have that a team is over or underperforming, really start to fade. If the Saints stink up the joint again this week, at home and after a bye, it is officially Fork Time for them. Miami and St. Louis look like teams that could go winless. Norv Turner is going so bad, people in San Diego were actually chanting for the return of Marty Schottenheimer. In other words, it's Win or Die time, at a time of the season where Win or Die really shouldn't be happening. But with each conference having a Dominant Team, the urgency is higher.

On to the picks!

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TITANS covering 8.5 against the Falcons. It's a big number for several reasons. First, the Titans are coming off a bye. Second, Vince Young just wins. Third, it's at home. Fourth, their defense looked downright dangerous in a road win against the Saints. And finally, because the Falcons probably won't be too successful running the ball, and their QB is Joey Harrington. I don't love laying this much wood with a team that has no WRs, but Fisher can coach.

HOUSTON covering 5.5 against Miami. This Dolphins team has been as bad as advertised, with the defense now sinking to the occasion. Seriously, five touchdowns of vengeance to Daunte Culpepper? These are some gutted Fish here, folks. Expect their offense to give the Texans a short field and a lot of confidence, especially on the road.

Jacksonville cover 2 against the CHIEFS. Here's how FUBAR the AFC West is right now... the Chiefs and Raiders are right in it despite being coached by a guy who eats paste in the former, and another guy who is barely able to drink in the other. This Jags team will be in the market for a coach at the end of this disappointing year, but they'll get it done this week.

Arizona covering 3.5 against the RAMS. Between the Rams and Saints, it's fantasy death writ large, and you've also got the Big Vengeance Game for Kurt Warner. Normally you'd hate to be taking a road team in a dome the week after they pull off the big upset, especially when they are pulling some SEC-level nonsense at the QB position... but the Rans are giving the car keys to Gus Frerotte, and Gus is likely to head butt any wall that looks at him funny. The Rams could go winless, really.

NEW ENGLAND covering 16.5 against Cleveland. At some point, even the Belichick lovers are going to have to admit that he's going into full-scale heel squash mode. In Monday's game against the Bengals, he was throwing every down while up a lot in the fourth quarter, and they still like to do the junk plays to the LB/TE nonsense to rub it in. The karmic debt that's being run up here is truly staggering, but remember, the 2007 Pats are proof that God likes to test your faith. If the line is under 30 to anyone, I'm just going with them.

NEW ORLEANS covering 3 against Carolina. No Delhomme again, on the road, off a bye -- if the Saints can't come through in this situation, it's time to start thinking about them as Rams South. Given that they are healthy and that the Panthers have been mostly stinky, they are getting one last pull from me.

New York (Jets) as a 3.5 point "road" underdog. This Meadowlands circle jerk will come down the Jets actually having a little bit of sense in their play-calling; expect a lot of Thomas Jones here and a Jets win. This Giants team could not put away the Eagles despite dominating the line of scrimmage; that speaks to the fact that the Giants' skill people may be the most overrated in football. If you love key drops in pressure situations, Burress and Shockey are made for you.

PITTSBURGH covering 5.5 against Seattle. The Steelers are coming off a stinger of a loss in the desert, while the Seabags are flying high after a step on their throats effort against the Niners. There will be some coverage around the fact that the last time these teams met, a Super Bowl was on the line, but it's hard to imagine that being too big of a factor. If Alexander can run effectively after James did last week, then you can say that the Steelers have an official problem... but I just don't see that happening, especially on the road.

WASHINGTON covering 3.5 against Detroit. I'm counting on the bye doing good things for the Skins in this one, and when you look at the historical numbers for the Lions against the boys from DC, it's astonishing. If Jason Campbell is ever to have a good stat game, this is the week -- but what is really going to happen is that the Skins will control the game with their RBs.

Tampa Bay beating a 10 point spread in INDIANAPOLIS. This Bucs team is just a week one loss in Seattle from being officially over the radar; as is, they're pretty close to seizing the NFC South by the throat, especially after last week's squash job against the Panthers. In this game, I think they can keep it low-scoring and even have the shot at the upset if Garcia can make a few big plays to Galloway. Besides, the Colts like to keep the other team in it for a while, and a late cover score seems likely to me.

San Diego as a 1.5 point underdog in DENVER. Norv Turner can't blow this whole thing this quickly, can he? He does have a dramatic talent advantage against a Broncos team that just isn't that good; you have to think that, at some point, he's going to remember that LaDanian Tomlinson is on his roster. In this game, I think Antonio Gates carries his team to a win, and Jay Cutler makes the crucial mistake to keep his team from winning. But honestly, if you are wagering heavily on this game, you may have serious problems.

Baltimore covering 3.5 as a road favorite in SAN FRANCISCO. If the Niners weren't starting the eternal amusement that is Trent Dilfer, I'd really be tempted to go with the home dog here... but I just can't do it. The Ravens will put 9 in the box and stymie Frank Gore, and play ball control with Willis McGahee and a short passing game. The Niners defense isn't opportunistic enough to pull off the upset.

Chicago as a 3 point underdog in GREEN BAY. Can the world stand another week-long mouth job for Brett Favre from the national media? I can't see it, but I'm also a cockeyed optimist that imagines that football will still be played even after Saint Brett is no longer around. Just remember, Cheese Lovers, that Brett is a single Super Bowl away from having the Dan Marino So Close and Yet So Frustrated Career...

Dallas covering a 10-point spread in BUFFALO. New England South is good at running up the score, and the Bills will give them every opportunity. Trent Edwards can't keep up the pace with an offense that's just hitting on every cylinder right now, and while it's nice to finally get some play out of our Patrick Crayton sleeper pick, it's really the RB tandem that's making this team go right now. The Bills will get ground down by the Cowboys OL, as surely as I am getting ground down by a year in which the Pats and Cowboys are clearly the two best teams in the NFL. (Repeating the mantra: it's only October, it's only October, it's only....)

Last week: 7-7-0
Season to date: 25-31-6