NFL Picks, Week 7: Bye Bye Birdie

One of the small but telling ways in which the NFL has sought to expand its dominance in American sports culture is through the use of bye weeks. (This week, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego and Carolina are on the sidelines.)

Now, it's unlikely that anyone reading this is terribly upset about the bye; it's the kind of modern innovation, like the wild card or instant replay, that most people like, and there's no chance that we're going back to the old way of doing things.

But it's still telling that what the bye week does is prolong the season, extend the amount of time we talk and care about NFL football, and all of it without any real PR backlash, especially among the players, who never complain about time off during the season. It also greatly increases the chance that you'll be watching a dog game in the 1pm or 4pm Sunday slots, though the Sunday / Monday / Thursday / Saturday diffusion of games throughout the year is a much bigger factor.

Less said but also still true about the bye... it makes one of the least fair things about the NFL, which is to say the schedule, even more random. Teams that have the bye later in the year tend to have an edge, since early byes don't find as many nagging injuries to heal. In a league where every game is over 6% of your season's total, and hence no game is truly unimportant, this kind of edge is substantial.

Finally and least importantly in everything but the context in which you are reading this story, bye weeks play hell with gambling. Last week, one of my most confident picks, despite not having any kind of feel for them yet this year, was the Eagles on the road against the Jets. This wasn't because I was totally sold on the quality of the Eagles, the return of Brian Westbrook, or the incompetence of the Jets... but for the simple fact that the Jets didn't have a bye the week before, and the Eagles did. That, combined with Andy Reid's now 9-0 regular season record after the bye, made that game about as loaded a home game as the Jets could easily imagine.

Now, how common was the knowledge that Reid's perfect after a bye? Clearly, not well known enough. So to all of those people who picked against the Eagles last week, all I can say is...

YOU SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER.

(Nope, that's still not getting old for me.)

Now, on to the picks!

* * * * *

Tennessee covering 1.5 at HOUSTON. Don't you love when the slate of games starts with a pick that you would have to be insane to make before seeing the pre-game injury report? I do, which is why I'm going with the Titans on the road regardless of the condition of Vince Young, knocked out last week against the Bucs. If the Wunderlic Wunderkid can't go, the Titans will go with (gulp) Kerry Collins... but this team beat Atlanta two weeks ago when the offense and special teams tried everything imaginable to lose, so it's not like even Kerry is that big of a difference. Besides, I just don't see Ahman Green doing enough here. (Oh, and here's one more name for the injury watch -- stud Texans WR Andre Johnson. More proof, not that you need it, that betting on NFL games is a Bad Idea.)

Tampa Bay as a 2 point underdog in DETROIT. When does the statute of limitations on Mike Martz being a genius run out? The clock keeps ticking this week at home, as the year's first MILLEN MUST GO chants are heard. Count on a monster day for Joey Galloway against the laughable Lions defense, no running room for the Lions RBs, and enough Kitna mistakes (because, let's face it, there's only so much God can do to help him) to make this one a bit of a runaway. Watch for the incredibly short-term boost that Michael Bennett gives the Bucs; this match up, on the speedy kind of turf that he loved in Minnesota, is made for him.

New England covering 16.5 on the road in MIAMI. A bit of a trap game in the Florida heat for America's Most Hated Team, which, combined with the remarkable yards from scrimmage totals from Reggie Brown and the general random behavior of the NFL towards oversized home underdogs... creates the argument for, if not the actual pick, for a reasonable cover bet. Having said all of that, this is a putrid Dolphin team that's winless for cause, and the Patriots are going to run up the score again, especially against a division rival. I'm convinced that we will see over 21 points given to the Pats soon probably at home.

San Francisco on the road as a 9-point underdog to cover against the GIANTS. Could it be that I just can't accept that this Giants team has righted the ship and found itself after a horrible start? That should be the case, and yet I'm having a hard time in dismissing the upset possibilities of Alex Smith on the road with absolutely no pressure, coming as he is off an injury. The Niners defense has had some frisky moments, and Frank Gore, is, well, Frank Gore. I like the cover here, and even a chance for the win, since Eli in a close game is, well, Eli in a close game.

BUFFALO as a 3-point underdog to the Ravens. Kyle Boller gets the start against Trent Edwards in this back-up battle. While I like Boller more than McNair at this point, that doesn't mean I have to love him on the road when the crowd is highly motivated to cheer for the prodigal nightmare Willis McGahee's death. A late Ravens score gets them the win, but not the cover.

WASHINGTON covering 8.5 at home against the Cardinals. More of a point spread than Jason Campbell should ever cover at home at this stage in his career, but the Cardinals are just a mess on offense right now. The Skins defense makes a sneaky good play in roto ball this week; Tim Rattay is like Chad Pennington without the, um, good decision making process right now.

OAKLAND covering 2.5 against Kansas City. By talent, this Chiefs team should have no problem... but that's why they play the games. Plus, it's hard to imagine the Chiefs not turning the ball over on the road, and this Raiders team has shown an ability to score on defense this year.

CINCINNATI covering 6.5 at home against the Jets. New York is still, amazingly, starting Pennington in this game, and the gambling Bengals D has to love that move. On offense, the Bengals haven't really been up to their press clippings for a while now, which is what happens when you start 1-4. Rudi Johnson especially has been struggling, but the Jets are a nice pick me up. Assuming he's healthy, Chad Johnson gets some limelight in this game, too.

PHILADELPHIA covering 5.5 at home against Chicago. Lost in the malaise of the Eagles this year is this little nugget of joy; the defense has been terrific, albeit not quite as dominant as you might hope for with takeaways. Against a Bears team that tends to lost patience in the run even when it's working, that's going to pay off handsomely for the Birds. Finally, the Bears' defense continues to disappoint, and won't get well on the road.

St. Louis as an 8.5 road underdog in SEATTLE. The Seabags are a terrible front-runner of a team, with a RB (Shaun Alexander) that seems to be hated in his home town, if what I was hearing during the SNF game had any basis in reality. (And once again, the SNF team fails to watch the game that's in front of us to report on what could be going on. Sigh.) The Rams are going to lose this game late, after getting some encouraging return to health contributions from Marc Bulger and others... but I just don't see it being enough to cover the full number.

Minnesota as a 9.5 point road dog in DALLAS. Purple Jesus Adrian Peterson got the Vikes one shocking road win last week in Chicago, and he now goes to the Texas Stadium turf to see if he can keep it going outside of the division. He probably can't get the Vikes a win, but I'm willing to believe he can get them a cover, especially against a Dallas offense that seems to have lost its way by not getting Marion Barber involved in the red zone offense enough.

Pittsburgh covering 3.5 points in DENVER. Here's one of those bye week conundrums that I mentioned before; both team are coming off one, and the weather is probably going to be bad. I like Pittsburgh here because Denver hasn't shown an ability or interest in stopping the run, and under the SNF lights, Fast Willie Parker is going to make his bid for stardom. Finally, there is this: Denver might be a truly terrible team this year. That pre-bye Charger game certainly didn't do them any favors.

Indianapolis covering 3 in JACKSONVILLE. The Jags have righted the ship by smacking around some lesser teams, and they always play the Colts tough. But it's hard to pick a team that's starting David Garrard, even in front of the home folks. He's due for some truly big mistakes that give the opponent a short field, and Peyton Manning knows what to do with short fields. Besides, it's a MNF game, which means it can't be close or entertaining. In a blowout, the Colts are much more likely to be on the happy side of things.

Last week: 4-7-2
Season to date: 35-46-8