NFL Picks, Week 6: Read This Before Someone Tells You Not To

(The kick off to the picks this week really isn't about the current state of the NFL. If you're just about the football, skip to the asterisks.)

There's a new site on the Web (and no, I'm not linking to them, because as you'll soon be able to tell, I don't support their mission) that has decided, as its reason for being, to tell you how bad other blogs are. Why on earth anyone that doesn't have a blog and is waiting for their turn to get crapped on would read it, I have no idea. But since FTT gets linked in enough places, I'm pretty sure that our time will come, so...

The long-term FTT reader might, at this point, smile and nod at the long-delayed comeuppance for all those nasty things we've said about Bill Simmons -- so grow some skin and deal. Well, of course, and when people have taken shots at FTT before, I haven't really talked about them, because, well, that isn't sports, and giving fuel to that kind of things is a good way to continue to not be about sports. I go off-topic enough as is, and for the record, we haven't been referenced yet. So why care?

Here's why... one of the standing points of this chancre site is that no one wants to read pick columns. You see, this is all narcissism (gosh, blogging has narcissism in it -- who knew?), unless the writer is a pro gambler or has a 90% winning percentage or some such noise.

Anyway, the witlessness misses a main and telling point. It's not always about the subject matter. Sometimes (most?) it's about the style of the writer, and whether you're down with that style.

As a reader, either you like and come on back, or you bail. So a site that tries to get you to stop reading a particular site, or more dramatically, stop someone else from writing it, doesn't strike me as just offensive on a First Amendment level. It's also deeply contemptuous of anyone who read the targeted site. (This is also the big point of difference between our criticism of Simmons and what's being done here. I don't want Simmons to stop writing. I want him to do it better. These folks really do just seem to think that if they are insufferable to bloggers, they'll stop. Good luck with that, really.)

One of my rules of thumb as I've gotten older is to not tell people that their tastes are wrong, even if I don't share them. If an FTT reader likes disposable music and brain-damaging television and the teams I hate, I don't much care. It's your life, your time; I am honored when you spend any of it here, and will do my little dances to the best of my ability. If you don't like, there's plenty of other sites. If you do, please tell a friend, so that I don't feel quite so silly at the end of the set. (Oh, and buy a shirt. I'm required by law to mention that.)

And if you don't like, and don't like it so much that you want no one else to like, either? Go screw. And avoid mirrors, since the biggest waste of sperm and dignity in your life lives in them.

And with that bit of timewaste taken care of... on to the picks!

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Tennessee as a 3-point dog in TAMPA BAY. Bet the under in this one, as both teams will have real problems on offense, since there's only one decent WR (the Bucs' Joey Galloway) on both rosters. I like the Titans because they won last week despite the offense and special teams doing all they could to throw it away. Meanwhile, the Bucs were never in the game in Indy, and they are down to their fourth-string running back (Ronde should call Tiki, really), which gives the Titans enough of an edge. Oh, and there's also this: Tennessee is from the better conference.

CHICAGO covering 5 against Minnesota. The Bear Renaissance began last week, with Brian Griese showing enough to get his team out of a road hole in Green Bay, albeit with a lot of help from the home team. Minnesota will play Kelly Holcomb or Tavaris Jackson on the road, and while they will stuff Ced Benson early and often, the Bears will slowly but surely open up a lead they won't lose. The Holcomb/Jackson combo at QB, combined with the Vikings WRs, makes for the worst collection of skill players that I've seen since the Hoying Era in Philly -- and despite the fact that the Bears aren't really right on defense yet, Minny is my pick to score the fewest points in the NFL this week.

Houston covering 6.5 in JACKSONVILLE. Sound the trumpets, Maurice Jones-Drew actually made a contribution last week. He'll probably get a little more love this week, and Houston on the road inspires no confidence against the physical Jacksonville defense... but this is just the kind of game and spread that the Jags always blow. I'm taking Houston to cover a game that shouldn't be close, but will be, despite the fact that the Texans nearly blew the game to the Dolphins last week. If there was such a thing as a No Confidence Pool, this would be my pick...

Miami covering 4.5 in CLEVELAND. Will the Dolphins go winless this year? They probably should on talent, but the simple fact is that it's hard to sink that low in the NFL, and the Fish do still have a few players with a pulse on the defensive side of the ball. Reggie Brown is also quietly having a wonderful middle finger of a fantasy football year to everyone who doubted him (yes, Reggie, we were among them). I see the road team taking advantage of some Derek Anderson INTs, a banged-up Browns running game, and some overdue good luck helping Miami to break into the win column. It won't happen very often.

BALTIMORE covering 9.5 at home against St. Louis. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Rams, who I really do think could get within sniffing distance of negative perfection. Maybe they catch fire on offense if and when Stephen Jackson and Marc Bulger come back, and Torry Holt is still dangerous, but the offensive line is just god-awful, and they're going against a Ravens team that's due for a feel-good stomping, especially at home. The Ravens aren't that good this year, but the Rams will help fool people into thinking they are.

GREEN BAY covering 3 against Washington. Both teams have good records and fill me with no confidence. The Skins are fairly frisky after a bye week and a dismantling of the same-old Lions; that's a recipe for overrated right there. The Packers have a craps roll at quarterback and a thin secondary (seriously, they are a hamstring pull to aged CBs Al Harris or Charles Woodson away from having serious problems against the pass). In the end, I'm going with the home team because I don't trust Skins QB Jason Campbell on the road yet, especially when his WRs (Santana Moss and Antwan Randle-El) are banged up.

Cincinnati covering 3 against KANSAS CITY. What we have here is a 1-3 team, on the road against a 2-3 team, and they are the favorite. The Chiefs were feeling good about themselves after rookie WR Dwayne Bowe destroyed the Chargers, but that all went away when those mean Jags treated 'em like crash test dummies last week. The Bengals bring in the league's worst defense after a bye week and the hopes to avoid a 4-game losing streak. They'll do that, because if for no other reason, Marvin Lewis is a much better coach than Herm Edwards... and in a battle where neither team can really play defense, take the better offense. Especially with Chad Johnson looking like he'll play, that's the Bengals.

Philadelphia covering 3 against the JETS. All hail the return of Brian Westbrook and the previously unquestioned power of Andy Reid (8-0) after a bye. If only we could schedule 8 games a year, and give Andy two weeks to prep for every game, the Eagles would be unstoppable. What swings me to the Birds this week is that even with Dawkins and Sheppard still hurting, the defense will be fresh off the rest, and I like the Birds' chances in obvious passing downs. The Jets WRs do cause some matchup problems, but not nearly as much as a healthy Westbrook will for the New Yorkers.

ARIZONA covering 4 against the Panthers. This one could be a little closer than most believe if the Panthers defense pulls off one of its periodic kill the QB games; on some level, it's hard to imagine the Reborn Yet Again Kurt Warner staying upright for the rest of the year. I'm trusting that rookie Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt will remember to run the ball and that he's got better talent. Failing that, the Panther QBs are David Carr and Vinny Testaverde. So, either the Cardinals win this game, or the Panters lose it, really.

SAN DIEGO covering 9.5 against Oakland. A big number that I'm really on the fence about covering, especially against a Raiders team that's been in every game this year. There's also this -- San Diego games are range wars with rowdy Raider Fan in the house, so the home field is a bit mitigated. What's making me go for the number here is the Chargers defense, which finally earned its advance notice last week in Denver. I think they add a defensive score late to cover. But if you want to go the other way here, you've got plenty of reasons to. After all, the Chargers coach *is* Norv Turner.

New England covering 5.5 against DALLAS in the battle of 5-0 teams that all right-thinking Americans want to see fail. Once again, we all should just know better than to pick against the Evil Empire, where even the defensive players are good at picking their spots to score and cover the spread. Dallas has the short week and an absolute escape after the MNF weirdness in Buffalo. Their secondary can and will be exploited by Moss and Stallworth, and the Dallas running game won't be effective enough to shorten the game. Besides, Tony Romo just had a game where he turned the ball over six times. I think he's still got a few more for the Pats.

SEATTLE covering 6.5 against the Saints. The league's most surprising winless team is New Orleans, who get to the most underrated home field in the NFL against a Seahawks team that stunk up the joint in Pittsburgh. Saints fans have to be encouraged by Stephen Alexander losing fullback Mack Strong before their matchup, and Deion Branch will also not be available... but the Saints D on the road needs more help than that. I'm looking for a good bounce-back game from Matt Hasselbeck here, but the real story will be how the Saints just aren't good on offense anymore, really. I'd be comfortable with Seattle at 10, let alone 6.5.

ATLANTA as a 3.5 home dog against the Giants. I like home dome teams on MNF, especially when the opponent seems overrated. The stories out of NY are how Eli Manning is looking better every week, but he seems like the same old guy to be -- wildly erratic from quarter to quarter, prone to bad decisions under pressure, and not terribly mobile. Expect Atlanta to show patience and effectiveness with the run against the Giants, with Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood taking pressure off embattled started Joey Harrington and eager back-up Byron Leftwich. They'll have to, because the Falcons OL is banged up and starting two new tackles. Even despite that, I think the Giants chunk this one.

Last week: 6-8
Season to date: 31-39-6