NFL Picks, Week 8: Deep Hurting

This week's picks are brought to you by Deep Hurting, who is sponsoring not only the Eagles season, but also the Red Sox run, the Patriots dominance, the continued US occupation of Iraq, and our new dog's struggles with housebreaking. (And if you aren't a MST3K fan, and haven't seen Hercules vs. the Moon Men, I'm sorry. YouTube didn't have it.)

Usually by this point in the NFL season, you have some idea what your team is; what they are good at, what they are bad at, whether or not they protect their home turf, and whether or not they fold on the road. You've got a reasonable amount of numbers to go on and some trends. If they're good, you know it; if they are bad, you know that, too. And when they are bad, you know who and why, and what they are going to have to do in the draft next year.

I've been an Eagles fan for 30 years now, because I am old and my family believed in the form of child abuse known as Philadelphia sports fandom. And I've never, at this point in the season, known less about my team than this year. And neither does anyone else, really, and it's driving us all insane.

They are 2-4 and miles back in their division, and have scored and given up the least amount of points. Despite the bad record, they are 8th in the NFL in yards per game on offense, and 11th on defense, and the Lions blowout can only skew those so far. Nine out of 10 plays that you watch them, they seem fine. Maybe not dominant, but certainly not buried in the division.

So your brain tells you that you can chalk it up to bad luck. The Packers game was a special teams gift; the Bears game was in the bag until Brian Griese, of all people, went crazy Broadway style. Even in the two games where they've been more or less handled (Redskins, Giants), they were in the game late.

If they can right things on the road against a Vikings team that has the 26th ranked defense and the 23rd ranked offense, they go to 3-4 and have the chance, if not the strong chance, to play meaningful football games in the second half of the year.

And yet... your record is what it is. As weird losses go, neither the Bear or Packer game is anywhere close to watching Matt Bryant hitting a 63-yarder in Tampa last year, in an game where both Buc touchdowns came on defense. And then you watch the actual games, and try to wrap your head around the incomprehensible reluctance to call running plays, and the perverse need to blitz on just about every third down even if the defensive line is getting pressure and the opponent seems to know what's coming... and you are led to the same reptilian, reactionary "ideas" as everyone else. Move McNabb, fire Reid, back up the trucks and start over.

For the record, I think that's a mistake. I think they're going to beat the Vikings this week, and then they get Dallas at home, Washington on the road then the Dolphins at home. Despite all of their efforts to make the year unwatchable, the year isn't over. But if they barf it up in Minny this week, they'll be 2-5 at home against Owens and the Cowboys under the SNF lights, and Reid's kids will be the least of his worries.

Now, with all of that cheeriness out of the way... on to the picks!

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CHICAGO covering 5 at home against Detroit. Two weeks ago, after a big road win, the Bears came home with a chance to reassert their dominance at home against a division rival. Adrian Peterson, the Purple Jesus, then showed up and that was that. This time, I think the Bears defense shows up, if only because Jon Kitna is a lot easier to tackle, and the Lions think that running the ball is for heathens.

Pittsburgh covering 3.5 on the road against the BENGALS. If you're still trying to figure out how the Steelers lost to the Broncos last week, you are not alone... but it has led to this thoroughly appetizing small line against the Bengals, who only have a pulse due to the largesse of the weak-armed Jets. Oh, and if Willie Parker wants to do anything more this year than get the Fred Taylor Fantasy Award for Empty Yard Calories, this would be a fine week to, you know, show the hell up.

Indianapolis covering 6.5 on the road against the PANTHERS. This is where we are contractually obligated as an NFL Picks column to talk about Trap Games... which, if you look at the numbers, don't really exist. The Colts are better than the Panthers, and the Panthers are starting David Carr (instead of Vinny Testaverde). I am very confidently laying the points.

TENNESSEE covering 7.5 against Oakland. Not a great bargain of a number here, but I'm seeing a bounce-back game for the Titans defense, who got caught up in a bizarro world shootout game against the Titans last week. The fact that the Titans still won that game with Kerry Collins somehow getting it done (or, at least, getting it done enough so that Rob Bironas could have one of the best games ever for a kicker) says something exciting for the Titan prospects this year.

ST. LOUIS as a 3-point home dog. Yes, I am going to be the only writer in America who is actually expecting the Rams to break their winless mark this week, and the reason is based entirely on the return of Stephen Jackson. With an actual running back in the backfield, Marc Bulger will have signs of competency, and the Browns will choke the biscuit. Perfection, even anti-perfection, is just too hard to achieve in the NFL.

Giants covering 9.5 in London against the "home team" Dolphins. Finally, America has its revenge on the nation that gave us Ricky Gervais, Absolutely Fabulous and Tony Blair. I'm in favor of exporting the worst games of the week, and if the NFL wants to keep the Dolphins away from US soil, who are we to argue? Expect the Giants to do what they do now; rush the QB, get a few big plays from Plex Burress, and look better than they actually are. Bonus moment here is that Dolphin Fan(s?) will get to see juw out of it coach Cam Cameron was when he wanted to platoon Reggie Brown with Jesse Chatman.

Eagles as a 1-point favorite in MINNESOTA. We touched upon this in the open, but my big hope is that the Vikings have a long enough home dome crowd so that Reid actually calls running plays. While the Vikings usually stuff the run, they'll have watched enough film of the Eagles to know that they aren't *really* going to run; by the time they realize that the world has changed, the Eagles will have an early lead, and the Vikings will still have Tavaris Jackson. So long as this doesn't come down to relying on Sean "Root Of All Evil" Considine to tackle the Purple Jesus, I see this one working out for the men in green.

Buffalo as a 3-point road dog at the JETS. Frankly, the Pennington situation in New York seems more like a Stockholm Syndrome situation to me than your usual pigheaded coach standing with his QB. It's plain for all to see; Pennington does not have an NFL-caliber arm, which is kind of a big deal for a guy with his role. Meanwhile on the other side of the field, the Bills have moved off their bad starting QB (JP Losman) for their clearly better back-up (Trent Edwards); it will continue to pay off here.

SAN DIEGO (no line) over Houston. This one is up in the air due to no one knowing where the game will be played, due to the wildfires plaguing the region. If the Chargers go to Arizona, as they have in the past when this situation has occurred (and, um, the fact that this situation has happened in the past should and does boggle the mind), their home field advantage will be significantly cut... but I don't think that is going to matter too much, given the talent gaps of these teams. Of course, there is always the chance that the Chargers come out very distracted for this game, but given their record and the chance to move into a first-place tie with the bye week Chiefs, I think the Chargers come through with the win.

Jacksonville as a 4-point road dog in TAMPA BAY. Two teams going in the wrong direction here. The Bucs spent last week making the Lions look good. The Jags spent the week getting the stuffing knocked out of them by the Colts, and losing their starting QB (David Garrard) for the next four weeks to a high ankle sprain. While the Jags looked absolutely helpless with Quinn Gray at the helm, a week of practice will help him look less pathetic, and the Bucs are also banged up. In a tight game, expect the Jags to make one more play, maybe in special teams, to get the win.

SAN FRANCISCO as a 3-point home dog against New Orleans. Are the Saints really all better, and am I really going to take the Niners again after they looked so bad in New York *and* have star RB Frank Gore call out rookie offensive coordinator Jim Hostler? Yes, if only because the Saints defense has to come too, and San Francisco can be a tough place to play for a turf team.

NEW ENGLAND covering 16.5 against the Redskins. Yet another classic Trap Game where the trap doesn't really exist; the number looks positively light to me, and I actually like this Skins team. But Jason Campbell was held to under 100 yards last week at home by the Cardinals, which really doesn't bode well for the Skins' chances to pull the upset, and the visitors are sill banged up on the offensive line. I think the Pats will by three touchdowns here, and for the first time this year, don't run it up a lot more than that, just because even Belicheck won't want to smack around Old Man Gibbs.

Green Bay as a 3-point dog in DENVER. The MNF game has to be a dog by special rule, and with the thwarted vengeance of Javon Walker should be an interesting sub-plot to this game, as Al Harris and Charles Woodson take turns roughing him up at the line of scrimmage. (Oh, and if you want a big sleeper fantasy pick, take whoever the Packers RB will wind up being in this game; some nobody -- heck, maybe even Vernand Morency -- will wind up with 100 yards and a touch from running draw after draw).

Last week: 5-9
Season: 40-55-8