NFL Week 17 Picks: The Silly Season

Ah, week 17, where the only thing left to be discussed is roto points leagues, idiot fantasy leagues, and playoff seedings. Sprinkled in the handful of competitive and meaningful games are fair contests of dog teams, unfair contests of tanking teams, and everyone more or less trying to figure out where the good first-round matchups are going to be.

Meanwhile, I've got work to do; trying to get to .500 or better in the picks, trying to suck out a money finish in the points league, and more or less finishing strong. It'd also be nice if I could get over the Steel Wool Throat Death Bug that's been plaguing and muting me for the past three freaking days. So you know the week is nonsense, and I know the week is nonsense... but what the hey. People bet the Pro Bowl and the exhibition games too.

And with that, on to the picks!

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Indianapolis at BUFFALO (NL)

At what point does, let's not put too fine a point on it, gambling... wag the dog in the NFL? Indy's quit job last week swayed a lot of money towards New York in a nice conspiratorial way over small market Jacksonville. This week, they'll go on the road to a cold place against a team that always messes up their pick for next year by winning games late in the year. Plus, they've also gotten nice empty calorie numbers lately out of Terrible Owens (for the year, he's now in the mid-20s among all WRs for fantasy points, with 818 yards and 5 TDs from scrimmage), which makes me think they'll bring him back next year. This will be a first class fold job, and I'd like to see it followed up by a shocking upset in their first playoff game; it would be karmically right, on a lot of levels.

Buffalo 24, Colts 13

JACKSONVILLE at Cleveland (-1.5)

The Jaguars still have a chance in hell shot at a playoff berth in the uber-complicated AFC race, but that's not the reason why I like them this week. The reason why I'm going this way is that I think Cleveland RB James Harrison, who has been huge for the past couple of weeks, runs out of gas here, especially against a Jaguars team that will make someone else beat them. When your best WR is Josh Cribbs or Mohammed Massaquoi, and the QB is Derek Anderson, who dreams of 50% completion percentages. Cleveland Fan, of course, dreams of an actual NFL caliber QB.

Jaguars 20, Browns 17

CHICAGO at Detroit (+2.5)

Was that MNF performance from the Bears a preview of a return to glory in 2010? It sure looked that way, especially in the first half, but the trouble is that the QB Jay Cutler trade means that their draft next year is not going to be very good, and the available free agent talent is also not going to help them very much. But if they simply can drop Cutler's terrible picks down to one a game without turning him into a game manager, they'll have a dramatically better offense... just in time for the secondary to start failing, due to injury and age. Ah, welcome to the treadmill, Bear Fan. At least you look like you've got a QB again.

As for this week, the Lions are horrible, will likely play the truly wretched Daunte Culpepper, don't have their starting RB, use a hobbled Calvin Johnson as their top WR, and the defense is actually worse than the offense. Cutler will give his fantasy owners one more reason to hate him, since they all lost months ago.

Bears 31, Lions 20

SAN FRANCISCO at St. Louis (+7)

And to think, there was actually some movement behind the idea that the Rams could win a few games this year, since they had dark horse WR candidate Donnie Avery, stud RB Stephen Jackson, and onetime stat pusher QB Marc Bulger. Too bad the lines were still horrible, and the defense is at least 2 years away from ordinary.

Meanwhile, the Niners have been feisty, especially on defense, and are sucking in chits for 2010 Surprise Team status. I'd feel better about their chances to move up if their QB wasn't Alex Smith, though he's better than the other clowns they've had in the past few years. If he can keep the job in 2010, I like their chances to get a wild card gig, if only because they should go 5-1 in the division, given how well they match up against Arizona. This will be a lot of Frank Gore, and a lot of Ram turnovers.

Niners 27, Rams 13

PITTSBURGH at Miami (NL)

Another battle between teams with a playoff prayer, and a probable shootout, given the fact that the Steelers pass defense seems to now consist of Sack Or Six. At least it gets the ball back to the offense quickly.

I just don't see the Dolphin weapons being able to make enough open catches to hold serve, and it's not as if the Steelers are ever really a road team, given how their fans travel, especially when it gets cold. I'm not sure this game will end up mattering, but both teams will play like it does, and it should be one of the better games of the day.

Steelers 34, Dolphins 27

NEW YORK at Minnesota (-9)

Which terrible quitting team do you like here -- the one that has opened the door to playing on the road in the playoffs, or the one that gave their last chance at the playoffs and the last game at their stadium with a turd for the ages?

In such a battle of beatables, I like avoiding the big point spread, especially because Giants QB Eli Manning is going to put up numbers against this secondary, especially indoors and with these weapons. The Vikings will win, but not cover, and it wouldn't even shock me if they don't do even that.

Vikings 31, Giants 24

ATLANTA at Tampa Bay (-1)

The Bucs are getting some action here for coming up with a road win over tha Saints, but as nice as that was, coming up with a punt return touchdown and a missed field goal doesn't exactly fill me with confidence for a repeat in Week 17. Give me the road Falcons to win the battle of turnovers, since rookie QB Josh Freeman is still a giveaway machine. Both of these secondaries are turnstiles, by the way, so take the over, really.

Falcons 28, Bucs 24

NEW ORLEANS at Carolina (NL)

For the past month, QB Matt Moore has been the game manager the Panthers needed to go to the playoffs; it's too bad that he didn't get the gig until it was too late. This week, I think the bubble bursts a little bit, because he really is a limited game manager, rollout type, and RB Jonathan Stewart can't keep carrying the full load. Besides, the Saints are actually still going to the Super Bowl, and this week, they are going to remind everyone why.

Saints 31, Panthers 16

NEW ENGLAND at Houston (-8)

A big line because Vegas thinks that the Patriots are going to mail this in, but I think they're going to run the ball well enough to keep this close, and the Texans are just erratic enough to keep a game close, even if they need it. I also just don't see them having enough of a running game to dominate, and if I'm going to give up eight points, I want some domination. Look for New England to continue to drive fantasy owners insane by playing running back bingo, but when all of the guys are the same talent level, why not just go with a fresh hand?

Texans 24, Patriots 20

PHILADELPHIA at Dallas (-3)

Oh, how I hate this game. Dallas is at home, healthy, and seemingly on a December run for the first time since the Aikman Era. But they still have holes -- a #1 WR (Miles Austin) who CB Asante Samuel can neutralize, trouble in the red zone, dicey special teams, real trouble in the defensive passing game if they don't get big quarterback pressure -- and coach Wade Philips is actually worse at game management than Andy Reid.

This isn't to say that the Eagles will walk. They are way too scattershot in the red zone, the defense has been pretty bad for weeks now, and they've had enough injuries recently (center Jamal Jackson is making me worry hard) to cause potential holes. It will be a four hour hairpull, a back and forth battle, with big plays all over the place, and the winner will have no real confidence over the loser, because it will come down to a half dozen plays or less. But for what it's worth, give me the road team -- who should have won the earlier game, if not for terrible officiating.

Eagles 34, Cowboys 31

Kansas City at DENVER (-13.5)

I hate giving up this many points, even for a road team, but the Chiefs are turnover machines that don't match up at all well with the Broncos. Denver needs the game and some help to make the playoffs and become a kitteny-soft out, while the Chiefs need nothing more than to stay warm and enjoy their time away from tyrant coach Todd Haley. That off-season isn't long enough, gentlemen.

Broncos 31, Chiefs 17

BALTIMORE at Oakland (+10.5)

Another game were I hate to give up the points, but the Ravens are in Win and In mode, and have a season full of film that show how the Raiders are prone to playing above their talent level. I don't see them sleeping early; I do see RB Ray Rice going for 200 yards. Oakland's also just not disciplined enough to avoid turnovers here, and the home crowd is very liable to get ugly with early adversity.

Ravens 27, Raiders 13

Green Bay at ARIZONA (-3)

An utter crapshoot of a game; both teams could send in the clowns early depending on what happens in the early games. All I can do is go off the available talent, which is that the Packers have issues in the secondary, and I just like the Cardinals talent on the lines more. If you are putting serious coin on this game, you either have inside information or a gambling problem. And in all likelihood, both.

Cardinals 24, Packers 20

Washington at SAN DIEGO (-4)

If the Chargers go with Billy Volek, Jacob Hester and a billion other no-names here, I still like them more than the Redskins, because man alive, the Redskins are horrible. If new GM Bruce Allen doesn't take dynamite to this roster and coaching staff, he's got a tolerance for thieves and vermin. Then again, he did take the job in the first place...

Chargers 24, Redskins 10

TENNESSEE at Seattle (+4.5)

Light a candle in the window for Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck, who really needs to hang it up rather than come back and take another 10+ games of blunt force trauma behind this trainwreck of a line. I'm also not a fan of their weapons (RB Justin Forsett is a change of pace back that's stretched to a full-time role, the WRs are all flawed and flaky), and the defense doesn't show up enough, even at home -- witness the recent fold job to the Bucs. Against the still frisky Titans, QB Vince Young will have a bounce back game, and RB Chris Johnson will continue to assault the record books.

Titans 27, Seahawks 17

Cincinnati at NEW YORK (-10)

The playoff wet-nursing of the Jets continues, with a Bengals team that has nothing to play for facing a Jets team that they might have to face again next week at their place. So even if they want to do the honorable thing and play hard, they really shouldn't... and given how frisky the Jets defense is, there's really no reason to play the starters, especially QB Carson Palmer. Mighty fine choice of Flex Game there, NBC!

Jets 24, Bengals 13

Last week: 7-8-1

Year to date: 113-120-6