NFL Week 16 Picks: Scrooge Me

Ah, the holiday season. Where my fantasy teams have turned to dust, my real team is in Please God, Don't Let Anyone Get Hurt Before The Games Really Matter, and my very real team (i.e., the family) is so very less than thrilled to see Papa Shooter go into the bunker to come up with blog grist and the picks column. This column was written at 4am, 51 hours before Maximum Claus, under the vague hope for a holiday miracle (i.e., a big winning picks week to save me from the ignominy of a sub .500 year in the money decisions). As always, buyer beware. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be visited by the ghosts of all of my fantasy teams in a vengeful dream series, with starring roles for Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, and that I'll wake up in time to throw out all of the presents and set fire to the fake tree. It's been kind of a rough year, really.

And with that, on to the picks!

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SAN DIEGO at Tennessee (-3)

Another intriguing NFLN only game, this one on Christmas Day, just to make sure that the network that you don't get delivers yet another reminder that the league will not leave well enough alone on any day of the year. Hey, NFL? Why isn't there a game on Christmas Eve? And New Year's Eve? And New Year's Day? Some of us are still married and living in homes. Quit making it so easy on us!

The Chargers, you may have read, have not lost a regular season game in December since the Ryan Leaf Era, simply because this is how Norvalicious keeps his job every year. It's a less inspiring statistic when you remember that they play in the AFC West, where December games mean angling for draft picks for two of three division rivals, and collapsing in the stretch like the Cowboy Lite franchise that Denver has always been for, well, the third. This game is also officially worrisome for the road team because of the otherworldly Chris Johnson going after Eric Dickerson's single-season record, and the fact that the Titans need this game much more than the Chargers do, seeing how San Diego's win over the Bengals last week pretty much wrapped up the #2 seed in the AFC for them. But when push comes to shove, I just like the Chargers' big receivers and QB play more than the home team, and suspect that the Titans are too distracted by Johnson's year to make enough plays in play-action to win this. Sadly, this is probably your game of the week.

Chargers 27, Titans 20

BUFFALO at Atlanta (-8)

I'm missing something here. Atlanta uses the Jets' confounding inability to score in the red zone and a last-minute touchdown to win a post-elimination game in New York last week. Buffalo hangs tough with the Patriots in a seven point loss at home, with the defense holding Tom Brady down to 115 yards through the air. Neither team has anything to play for, and the home team is missing their top running back, Michael Turner. And the spread is... eight, just because the home team is .500 and the road team is 5-9? Looks too generous to me, especially when Buffalo is getting production from the running game, and the Falcons crowd consists of people from Atlanta, which is to say, gutless front runners.

Falcons 24, Bills 17

Kansas City at CINCINNATI (-14)

Is it too soon to ask that a Bengal get arrested in remembrance of deceased WR Chris Henry? Probably, but I'm going there anywhere, Porkopolis Fan; the mawkish sentimentality for a spectacularly wasted life just grates. By this point in the evolution of the species, just about every team has been Touched By Tragedy, right? Can't we get the grief counselors in to have a team just, you know, put the black patch on and get on with things?

Three years ago at one of my previous comedy relief advertising start ups, a popular coworker up and died a week before Christmas. Everyone lost their discharge for the better part of two weeks, with funerals in New York and his hometown taking up mindspace that, well, seemed to have more to do with people showing us How Sensitive They Were and less to do with processing the event and its meaning, assuming that Young Party Guy Dies has any meaning beyond Young Party Guy Dies. There's also this: teams that dedicate their years to Dead Guys just don't seem very likely to be pouring champagne on the ground for the brother that ain't around from, well, a championship trophy. Jerome Brown, Sean Taylor, Chris Henry: three ghosts that just didn't perform in the clutch. And yes, I am filled with the Christmas Spirit.

Getting back to the game at hand, the Chiefs lost last week to a 2-win Browns team because they couldn't cover kickoffs, or have enough sense to just kick the ball out of bounds. Seriously. On the road against a Bengals team that still has something to play for, I'm expecting roadkill, and lots of fingers pointed to the sky. This running up the score touchdown against a terrible defense? It's for you, Chris!

Bengals 34, Chiefs 16

OAKLAND at Cleveland (-3)

JaMarcus Russell leads a last-minute comeback on the road in Denver. I want you to really roll that around, along with the fact that the Raiders are probably still in playoff contention had they (a) started Brad Gradkowski and/or Charlie Frye from the start of the season, and (b) just settled, for the love of Cthlulu, on a sane RB rotation for the year. If it's Decemember, then it's time for a disturbingly fresh Michael Bush to look like Prime Era Bo Jackson. It's the Raider Way.

Meanwhile, Cleveland won on the road in Kansas City on the back of RB James Harrison, who had the fantasy day of the ages for almost no team, and will follow that up with some 8 carries for 20 yards effort in a timeshare this week against the Raiders, if only to make every last person in America hate Eric Mangini. (Why? Because when the utterly toothless Cleveland passing attack is on a third stringer from the street... thatsa spicy turdball.)

In other news, this game will have *huge* implications in fantasy football championships, because someone's going to win from Bush, Harrison, or some other bizzaro play (Darren McFadden? Joshua Cribbs? Chaz Schillens? The utterly random crapshoot plays are endless!) winning the lottery. Yes, I am bitter. Give me the road team, just because Raider Fan needs to bellow about how their team's .500 record on the road for 2009 and quality wins over a number of tough opponents means that Al Davis is not insane and ineffective.

Raiders 20, Browns 16

Seattle at GREEN BAY (-14)

Hey, want to know who's a really terrible, terrible team? That's right, it's Seattle, who officially went Big League Quit last week at home against the one-win Bucs, losing by 17 (!) on a day where Forked Back QB Matt Hasselbeck threw four picks. This week, they go into Cold Wisconsin to meet the truly cheesed Packers, who lost on a last second play to the home Steelers while giving up over 500 yards of passing offense to the defending Super Bowl champs. Expect the kind of bounce-back game from the home defense that, say, the Eagles gave to the Niners after the Giants game, or that the Giants gave to the Redskins after the Eagles game. I'd be tempted to go with the home team for twice this point spread.

Packers 34, Seahawks 10

Houston at MIAMI (-3)

Is there something in the water in Houston? Last week, for the fourth time this year, the Texans gave the ball to a RB, watched him fumble, then yanked him for cause. It's happened to Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Ryan Moats and now, Arian Foster, with all of these guys claiming the lives of fantasy footballers from coast to coast. The death of the Houston running game has been one of those under-the radar killers this year, along with the Steelers' inability to cover kicks, the inability of a half dozen teams to throw the ball more than five yards downfield, and the inequality of head injuries (sudden, shocking ones bad, repetitive, every down ones good).

Miami blew a golden chance to make the last two weeks of the season intriguing by losing in overtime to the Titans last week, despite 349 yards from QB Chad Henne, who will, I am certain, be touted as a sleeper in 2010 and fail his owners utterly, because he'll still have no consistent weapons at WR or TE. The Texans nearly ended their meager hopes in a 3-point win over the one-win Rams. Miami has real secondary issues that are pretty scary against a team with Andre Johnson, but Texans' coach Gary Kubiak has to lose his job for cause this year, and this is the week he does it. Besides, it will allow Houston to finish at .500, which is, I think, part of their charter.

Dolphins 27, Texans 20

Jacksonville at NEW ENGLAND (-8)

If you are tempted, as I was, to take the road dog against that tempting eight point line, just remember the following. First, that the Jags are 2-4 on the road this year, and many of those four have been blowout awful. Second, that they lost to the Colts last Thursday despite their offense playing pretty great. Third, that at 7-7 they have frittered away the lead that they held on the rest of the conference for the right to get punked in wild card weekend, and fourth, that RB Maurice Jones Drew is starting to look well and truly spent.

This Patriots team is due for a first round exit, and doing it with smoke and mirrors. But there will be snow in New England, and a road team that's dreaming of open golf dates in January.

Patriots 20, Jaguars 10

TAMPA BAY at New Orleans (-14.5)

Now that the Saints have lost perfection but still kept their #1 seed, is there any reason for them to play hard against the suddenly frisky Bucs? I'm not seeing it, especially now that Tampa has finally come to its senses and made Derrick Ward the lead back in the offense. New Orleans has been spoting big leads to the opposition for weeks now, putting everything on QB Drew Brees to make the comeback, and the defense looks a lot more ordinary when they aren't playing with a lead. So long as rookie QB Josh Freeman doesn't go INT-happy, the road team will cover, and Saints coach Sean Payton will try to get his running game in order and his QB sharp, but in no danger.

Saints 31, Bucs 21

CAROLINA at New York Giants (-6.5)

Oh, Panthers Fan. Had you only had this Julius Peppers and this QB (Matt Moore) from the start of the season, what a year you might have had. Well, OK, it's much more likely that you'd be 8-6 instead of your current 6-8, and that it woudln't have been all that different, but you'd still have avoided that disastrous Delhomme experience, and WR Steve Smith's fantasy owners wouldn't have spent months dreaming of owning NY's Steve Smith.

As for the Giants, I'm seeing them as a little too fat and happy following their MNF clowning of the Skins in DC, and QB Eli Manning has never been a great cold-weather Meadowlands QB. They'll win this game to stay alive in the playoff race, but the potential for a loss is a lot greater than a cover. Especially with Smith 1.0 facing that secondary, since he's, you know, a lot like DeSean Jackson. (I think I just made Blue Fan quiver. A lot.)

Giants 24, Panthers 20

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH (-3)

The best game on the Sunday 1pm slate, and perhaps the first time in this series where you really feel good about betting the over. Neither of these teams is anywhere near where they need to be on defense for December, but with big play QBs and emerging RBs leading the way, they might just be able to outscore someone with a road upset in round 1. Really, there might not be two more similar division rivals in all of the NFL right now.

The series has hinged in recent years on Baltimore getting jobbed by the refs / self-destructing in close games, and it's too much of a trend for me to ignore. I also just think more of the Pittsburgh passing game, which showed signs of unstoppability with breakouts from the backup WRs last week against Green Bay. There's also the fact that the Ravens have been very susceptible on the road (2-4), while Pittsburgh is 5-2 at home. Just a huge, huge game.

Steelers 34, Ravens 30

St Louis at ARIZONA (-14)

Last chance for QB Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense to show its teeth and make everyone think they are a more solid playoff team then they really are, before Week 17 Clown Time. The Rams actually stayed competitive for a long time last week against the .500 Texans, but I'm seeing them man up and lock down that #1 overall pick with an epic quit on the road in the desert. How Stephen Jackson is still playing and playing well, no one knows, but I'm convinced that the existence of fantasy football is the only thing that's kept him going all of these months.

This one will be a blowout, not because the Cardinals' offense is really that good, but because their defense feeds on turnovers, and the Rams are awfully generous in that regard. (Also, the Cards have been just bad enough at home this year, and Warner still gets up for torturing the old laundry, to make them not sleep on this one.)

Cardinals 38, Rams 16

Detroit at SAN FRANCISCO (-12)

Do you really feel good about a 12-point spread to a team with nothing to play for? You do when they are playing Detroit, who probably used up their Trying Hard games last week at home against the Cardinals, and are still winless on the road this year, which means that they haven't won on the road since Twittering was a purely offline verb. The Niners don't quit under coach Mike Singletary, and their defense will take advantage of Detroit turnovers, which is to say, their defense will take the field against Detroit. Look for TE Vernon Davis to continue his shocking statistical ascendancy to the title of Best TE In Football here; he's really not all that good, but that's what happens when you are the best receiving option on a team with a fixated QB who is trying for safe deep balls.

Niners 31, Lions 10

New York Jets at INDIANAPOLIS (-6)

The last unbeaten team gets a home game agains the cursed Jets, who still have playoff hopes, a running game, a good defense and the dreams that the Colts are looking to avoid Perfection Talk by subtly throwing a game. I'm just not seeing it with Turnover Machine QB Matt Sanchez on the road, especially after an inexcusably mistake-filled loss at home to the playing for nothing Falcons.

The game will also be fascinating to watch for this reason: QB Peyton Manning will throw for big yards by avoiding CB Darelle Revis. Other teams might, you know, want to study how he does that. I think it involves using his eyes to see where Revis is, then not throwing it there. That Manning, he's so cunning!

I also think the Colts are secretly playing for perfection, if only to give them one more way of making the case that they, and not the Patriots, are the true Team Of The Decade. It also helps that unlike the Patriots, the Colts don't have a Super Genius Cheating Coach Who Craps The Bed Repeatedly With Bad Fourth Down Decisions (And yes, that's just me goading Masshole Fan, who already has his head in the over from a year in which the Lakers and Yankees are champions. The Colts, hopefully, get them to turn up the gas on all of the burners. Happy Christmas!)

Colts 27, Jets 13

Denver at PHILADELPHIA (-7)

The reeling Broncos come to town for the homecoming of safety Brian Dawkins, who will be treated with love and respect by his old team in warm-ups and player introductions, then be exploited in coverage against TE Brent Celek during the game. As worrisome as WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler may be in this game, the Eagles offense provides bigger problems for the opponents, and I can't say I'm too scared of a team that's dropped six of its last eight. I'd also say more about the Eagles winning streak and prospects in the conference, given the difficulties of the top two seeds last weekend, but when you do that in this town, you get the stink eye from the Doomed Are Us crowd. It's enough to know what they need this game to keep the division lead, and that Kyle Orton in a must game on the road just seems like a non-starter.

Eagles 31, Broncos 20

Dallas at WASHINGTON (+6.5)

How can anyone, really, take the Skins at home after that MNF clowning? Simple; it's Dallas. This game is always close, no matter what the talent level and motivations of the two teams, and the Cowboys are well and truly capable of sleeping their way through three quarters before putting the hammer down. Besides, QB Jason Campbell needs to help the Skins make a bad decision with him in free agency, and SNF games have a tendency to stay close, if only to keep NBC alive as a network. (This conspiracy theory would get much more play if this were the NBA.)

Dallas will, of course, win this game, probably with musical kicker Shane Suisam having his revenge on the team that booted him two weeks ago. It will also set up Dallas for a winner-take-all division game at home against the Eagles in Week 17, which, along with the Colts going for perfection, will be your early Hype Machine candidates. Start the hype now!

Cowboys 24, Redskins 20

MINNESOTA at Chicago (+7)

Yeesh, is this game a mess to pick. You are either going with His Favreness in the middle of a December swoon in cold weather, or the 5-9 Bears, who defined new degrees of quit last week in Baltimore, and have lost 6 of their last 7, with only a win against the Rams breaking the misery. They haven't had a 100-yard rusher since Week 4, and QB Jay Cutler hasn't broken 210 yards passing since Week 10. The teams are also prone to playing close games, and the Vikings haven't been able to run the ball well for months now; when you get three yards a carry with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, you've got an offensive line that's just, well, offensive.

After going back and forth on this one several times, I finally went with the Vikings, just because I think Cutler can't stop turning the ball over under the lights, and his recent December history is even worse than Favre's. The Vikings also need this game to keep their #2 seed hopes alive, whereas the Bears need nothing more than the end of the season. But man, how sweet would it be for the Vikings to keep stinking up the joint? Very sweet indeed.

Vikings 24, Bears 16

Last week: 7-7-2

Year to date: 106-112-5