Monday, December 14, 2009

New ace in residence

The big deal of the day is the Phillies finally ending their courtship of Roy "Doc" Halladay by landing the prize righthander, but the ollateral damage in the deal is ace lefty Cliff Lee, who will go to Seattle to clear the salary space. Independent of the fiscal issues here (from what I've read, Halladay was willing to take a discount to come to Philly, while Lee is looking for Sabathia numbers), let's just get one thing out on the table for Philly Fan.

Independent of what happens in 2010, or how much you loved Lee in this year's playoffs...

Roy Halladay is better than Cliff Lee. And it's not by a small amount.

Yes, Lee is two years younger, did everything you could ask in the 2009 MLB playoffs, and has been ridiculously solid for the past two years. But you'd draft Halladay faster in your roto league. He's more of a proven thing, with a more consistent year to year track record, and more strikeouts per nine innings. He's done his work in a hitter's park with a middling defense behind him, in the best division in baseball. The track record of ace AL pitchers moving to the NL is as close to airtight as you can get, while still discussing pitching.

Assuming that Cole Hamels has a rebound year, Halladay balances out the top of the rotation, which is fairly helpful as long as you aren't playing Colorado. Halladay generally eats more innings, and has more of a margin for error to gut out a serviceable start when his control isn't perfect. There's also this: before the playoffs came around, Lee was very hittable in September after a hot August. He's just more of a great #2 pitcher than a true #1.

And no, there never was a way for them to have both, at least not while keeping Hamels. (And keeping Hamels is still the right move over Lee, even despite the way 2009 ended, because Hamels is still so young, and was absolutely destined to struggle in 2009, giving his full tank effort in 2008. Besides, you aren't ever going to have a better market for Lee than right now, or a worse one for Hamels.)

Now, if you want to bitch about this deal? Well, I like Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ a lot, and it looks like one of those guys is going to go. The Phils are supposed to get back a pitching prospect, but I'm guessing they won't be as good. You can also wonder about the wisdom of tying up so much contract into an ace, especially when you desperately need to fix the bullpen. If this club goes into 2010 with Brad Lidge still closing games, and if Lidge is anything less than an All-Star, it's not going to matter who starts the games to Philly Fan.

But in the final analysis, bringing in Halladay for Les makes for a better Phillies team... and it reminds me, a lot, of the Raul Ibanez / Pat Burrell move. A popular player is moved in a fairly heartless manner for a superior talent. The team takes on contract and gets older to bring in a guy who is going to take advantage of the change in setting. The team changes hands in a key position, and the home fan base overreacts out of loyalty.

And at the end of the day, the team will be better for it. Cliff Lee is adorable, and was the best move they could make in 2009. Roy Halladay is the best move they can make for 2010. They'll do the deal.

No comments: